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BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Oct 25, 2017
3,766
London
I just noticed the story about Steve Baker producing a blueprint for a tougher negotiation strategy against the EU, it blows my mind that a few weeks before leaving he thinks something like that up.

I suppose it will impress the loons in the Tory party but its kinda embarrassing in the real world.
 
Nov 3, 2017
3,280
I don't see the point of discussing Corbyn and his leadership at this stage, we're stuck with what we have. And unfortunately in these fucked up times someone like Lammy could just as easily lose a load of votes.
A: "This is not about my life, or your life, this is about the future of the UK.
B: "There is no point in What if's"
C: "What are you doing?"
A: "Saving this country."
B: "It's not possible."
A: "No... it is necessary.

Labour has to go fully into Remain. They can't make Brexit a success and would either be blamed for it, if they win the GE, or complicit in it, in the eyes of the populace, if they don't back remain in the GE and lose.
Sure, they could lose the GE on a remain campaign but they would have the next decade or two free reign if the Uk is a shitshow after Brexit and they can show themselves as the party who tried to stop it and try to untangle the fuck-up of the tories.
And if they win on a remain campaign, they can revoke Article 50 with the backing of the majority of the UK populace.
 
Oct 27, 2017
97
Watching Emily Thornberry on QT trying to defend a Labour version of Brexit was excruciating. The PLP don’t want it, the membership don’t want it and the voters don’t want it.

They need to completely ditch the idea.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,766
London
A: "This is not about my life, or your life, this is about the future of the UK.
B: "There is no point in What if's"
C: "What are you doing?"
A: "Saving this country."
B: "It's not possible."
A: "No... it is necessary.

Labour has to go fully into Remain. They can't make Brexit a success and would either be blamed for it, if they win the GE, or complicit in it, in the eyes of the populace, if they don't back remain in the GE and lose.
Sure, they could lose the GE on a remain campaign but they would have the next decade or two free reign if the Uk is a shitshow after Brexit and they can show themselves as the party who tried to stop it and try to untangle the fuck-up of the tories.
And if they win on a remain campaign, they can revoke Article 50 with the backing of the majority of the UK populace.
There's not likely to be a general election until after Brexit, but I wouldn't be against that position, Corbyn is leader which limits the numbers of Tories who will work with Labour and how they will do it, I wanted him to lose the last leadership election but this is what we have.

He isn't going to simply ignore the referendum result so unless someone steps up and actually challenges him I just think people are torturing themselves with what ifs.

I'm going to stick with my original prediction after the referendum, if we do scrape through it will be more by luck and at the very last minute if not in extra time.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,870
Look at what you could've won. Get rid of Corbyn and put this man in charge yesterday. (lammy btw)
Lammy or Starmer would be great leaders if if came to it. I don't think the policy would change much right now if either were actually in charge though but if it starts to look like an election and these kind of ideas don't make their way to the top then it really will be time to change.
 
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Oct 29, 2017
493
Such a fantastic speech - almost tempted to send it to my Daily Mail reading, leave voting father and see what he has to say!

Neither of us have talked about Brexit since the vote two years ago when we had a huge row.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,197
I think they need to revoke article 50 and come at this with a factual national and public interest approach that can delve deep into what the EU does for us and what it let's us achieve worldwide, it would be an education as well as common sense to lead us out of this mess. Facts need to show the way and no ticking clock either. We need to take a step back and have a honest frank discussion about our EU membership without an axe hanging over us. This would be for everyone not just leave or remain. It should go hand in hand with UK issues that people feel left behind and what they fear. Open the discussion and lay out the facts and truths. Revoking article 50 needs to be tabled by the leadership as well as initiating a fact based reality check and education of the UK in the EU that parliament and people understand instead of lies, misleading truths and quite frankly what many don't know.
Remain should have had a two pronged approach. First appealing to people why to stay, and second to explain why leaving won’t stop brown people or give people jobs back or get the government to actually listen to people that feel disenfranchised

Basically recognising the ignorant/prejudiced out there and talking in their terms

What willl happen when we leave and external non-EU migration goes *up* because now we have a huge skills shortage? What will the racist idiots do then?
 
Lammy dropping truth bombs there. Wonder if he could get enough votes to lead Labour in the future.

Such a fantastic speech - almost tempted to send it to my Daily Mail reading, leave voting father and see what he has to say!

Neither of us have talked about Brexit since the vote two years ago when we had a huge row.
I know how you feel being the only person who voted remain in my family, Brexit isn’t discussed at family get togethers because emotions run high and we argue so it’s left unspoken.
 
Oct 29, 2017
493
Lammy dropping truth bombs there. Wonder if he could get enough votes to lead Labour in the future.



I know how you feel being the only person who voted remain in my family, Brexit isn’t discussed at family get togethers because emotions run high and we argue so it’s left unspoken.
Yea indeed! All family gatherings have been awful since the vote - everyone afraid of causing a row. My family is split 50/50 with it being younger vs older (with the exception of my younger sister....).

Everyone generally just avoids talking about it especially because my partner is Polish and she is likely to punch someone haha.
 
Nov 1, 2017
1,251

Nothing wrong here, just an impartial BBC presenter shutting down criticism of a media outlet that he chairs, when discussing the role of the media in legitimising and emboldening the far right.
 
Oct 31, 2018
830
The fact the Lammy speech went down well on this board, tells you all you need to know, he would get buried in an election. It is like the truth that no party ever got to power by promising to raise taxes. Classic example of why politicians sit on the fence with every answer.


A few interesting titbits from brexitcast

Amendments will happen before vote, so Tory’s will start accepting lots to make vote close, there is a feeling that once the vote has happened if it is winnable on a second vote the EU will offer something, Irish PM is starting to wobble in panic of no deal
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,623
Hearing good things about the new host on QT, seems she actually makes the Tories answer questions which is a massive step up.

Anyway, here is a slow motion car crash for you.
 
Yea indeed! All family gatherings have been awful since the vote - everyone afraid of causing a row. My family is split 50/50 with it being younger vs older (with the exception of my younger sister....).

Everyone generally just avoids talking about it especially because my partner is Polish and she is likely to punch someone haha.
My eldest brother, I think he voted leave, but he's now definitely remain, which is interesting. We talked about it the other day, and he agreed it's going to be a shitfest.

Other siblings were remain anyway. Haven't moved at all on that.

You feel like you can't mention the B word.
 
Oct 30, 2017
3,681
My family are all xenephobes unfortunately. They spout the sort of arguments that the average Sun reader might. Needless to say those arguments don't stand up to scrutiny.

Sad really, given our father was an immigrant. I suspect it's probably because they're not that bright in general though, rather than any active desire to be malicious.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,623
loved owen jones on this week, I don't care what angry people on the internet say, he's a good lad
I just cant stand the idiots that try to put the blame on him for trying to actually speak "Its really unprofessional/disrespectful" etc.

He got invited on to speak about the rise of the far right and how the media has helped spread it and yet he isnt apparently allowed to mention the spectator which has had pro-fascist articles etc. all because that prick Andrew Neil is the chair of it.
 
Dec 2, 2017
1,853
Does anybody else feel like Conservative policy is unraveling at a rapid pace?

Austerity has been shot to pieces and proven as harming the most vulnerable in our society, their handling of the NHS has been heavily criticised with advice telling them to undo the 2012 reforms, the benefits freeze could be ending as soon as next year, Universal Credit is dead in its current state, even the wheels are falling off deficit reduction, etc.

Even outside of Brexit, it feels like the near-decade of Conservatives in power will be defined by failure, and making everything far worse.
 
Nov 8, 2017
4,222
UK
I know how you feel being the only person who voted remain in my family, Brexit isn’t discussed at family get togethers because emotions run high and we argue so it’s left unspoken.
Same for my parents and my partners parents. Both are Leave voters and both share xenophobic sentiments they swear are justified with the usual bullshit rhetoric and the EU being the devil for the past forty years.

Every time Brexit is mentioned it gets heated, so we just avoid it entirely. Last one was a week or two before Christmas and everyone left feeling pretty shit.
 
Oct 26, 2017
838
Does anybody else feel like Conservative policy is unraveling at a rapid pace?

Austerity has been shot to pieces and proven as harming the most vulnerable in our society, their handling of the NHS has been heavily criticised with advice telling them to undo the 2012 reforms, the benefits freeze could be ending as soon as next year, Universal Credit is dead in its current state, even the wheels are falling off deficit reduction, etc.

Even outside of Brexit, it feels like the near-decade of Conservatives in power will be defined by failure, and making everything far worse.
And yet 40% of voters choose them. Brexit is the only thing keeping them together.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,267
Brexit really is the only thing keeping the Tories going. Used to be you just heard nothing but "Can't vote for Labour because of the financial crisis!", but 10 years should be enough time to sort that shit out.

Now, they just constantly go on about delivering Brexit and trying to make everyone avoid their awful choices elsewhere, like dicing up the NHS and ruining the social safety net of benefits.

Just a shame that Labour are killing themselves internally and the Lib Dems have made themselves immaterial. There's just nobody to vote for that feels like they can get the job done, at least for the English.
 
Oct 28, 2017
538
Does anybody else feel like Conservative policy is unraveling at a rapid pace?

Austerity has been shot to pieces and proven as harming the most vulnerable in our society, their handling of the NHS has been heavily criticised with advice telling them to undo the 2012 reforms, the benefits freeze could be ending as soon as next year, Universal Credit is dead in its current state, even the wheels are falling off deficit reduction, etc.

Even outside of Brexit, it feels like the near-decade of Conservatives in power will be defined by failure, and making everything far worse.
Well it is a both sides issue, on one side you have all the evidence austerity isn't working, on the other you have this austerity expert saying you guys need to tighten your belts:



So you know what I would go with the austerity expert on this one.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,749
Does anybody else feel like Conservative policy is unraveling at a rapid pace?

Austerity has been shot to pieces and proven as harming the most vulnerable in our society, their handling of the NHS has been heavily criticised with advice telling them to undo the 2012 reforms, the benefits freeze could be ending as soon as next year, Universal Credit is dead in its current state, even the wheels are falling off deficit reduction, etc.

Even outside of Brexit, it feels like the near-decade of Conservatives in power will be defined by failure, and making everything far worse.
With the defeat of 'Mayism' at the last election, it's rather unclear what if anything the Tories stand for other than Brexit right now. They'll need some time after this is over to come up with a coherent set of policies that actually say something about what they want Britain to be.
 
Fiona Bruce was fantastic last night on QT she really pushed on MP’s to give a straight answer, Emily Thornberrys face was hilarious she really couldn’t counter any points without the usual party waffle about the 6 tests lol

Props to the Lid Dem MP at least she could hold her ground.

It's a great speech. He's one of the very few genuinely inspiring politicians around at the moment.
You can tell he has lot of passion to try and make things better for us. He would get my vote for sure. It’s a shame that there are so few MP’s like him.

Yea indeed! All family gatherings have been awful since the vote - everyone afraid of causing a row. My family is split 50/50 with it being younger vs older (with the exception of my younger sister....).

Everyone generally just avoids talking about it especially because my partner is Polish and she is likely to punch someone haha.
Same for my parents and my partners parents. Both are Leave voters and both share xenophobic sentiments they swear are justified with the usual bullshit rhetoric and the EU being the devil for the past forty years.

Every time Brexit is mentioned it gets heated, so we just avoid it entirely. Last one was a week or two before Christmas and everyone left feeling pretty shit.
It’s such a shame that this stupid subject has divided families. I very rarely bring up politics now as I don’t want start another argument. I let thier criticisms of the EU flow over me like water of a ducks back when I’m there. Even though I know I can counter thier points with facts I don’t say anything because they are so entrenched with their opinion it makes no difference. It’s a difficult situation to be in for sure.
 
Nov 3, 2017
3,280
Does anybody else feel like Conservative policy is unraveling at a rapid pace?

Austerity has been shot to pieces and proven as harming the most vulnerable in our society, their handling of the NHS has been heavily criticised with advice telling them to undo the 2012 reforms, the benefits freeze could be ending as soon as next year, Universal Credit is dead in its current state, even the wheels are falling off deficit reduction, etc.

Even outside of Brexit, it feels like the near-decade of Conservatives in power will be defined by failure, and making everything far worse.
No, quite the opposite.
We see that you can shit on democracy and still be in power. We see that there are not nearly enough checks in place to kick out bad-faith-actors in the government. We see that you can fail upwards. We see that the boomers are fucking us and we can do nothing against it. We see "fuck-you-got-mine".

What we see is the unraveling of a functioning society, unraveling of Democracy that was built on dreams and good faith and the realization that dreams and good faith can't be upheld if those in power weaponize democracy at it's core.
 
Oct 27, 2017
589
No, quite the opposite.
We see that you can shit on democracy and still be in power. We see that there are not nearly enough checks in place to kick out bad-faith-actors in the government. We see that you can fail upwards. We see that the boomers are fucking us and we can do nothing against it. We see "fuck-you-got-mine".

What we see is the unraveling of a functioning society, unraveling of Democracy that was built on dreams and good faith and the realization that dreams and good faith can't be upheld if those in power weaponize democracy at it's core.
I don't think it's as bad as that. Brexit and "the will of the people" that comes with it has been treated as a higher form of democracy that is somehow greater than parliament and this has scared a lot of MPs on both sides of the aisle. We don't really do direct democracy and the Brexit vote has shaken Westminster to the core. This has allowed a minority government not acting in good faith to repeatedly break accepted protocol and convention to it's own end whilst MPs have been paralysed to call it out for what it is.

This week we saw MPs and the speaker take back control of parliament. May's bag of excuses don't wash now the deal is on the table and that's why the Tory backbenches are rebelling. May has discharged the will of the people, the fog has lifted and parliament is exerting itself again.
 
Oct 25, 2017
169
The betting markets are putting the chances of the UK leaving the EU by the end of March at 25%. That's with a deal or without. There's fairly strong belief that there will be some A50 extension/fudge.
 

plagiarize

Skinny Dipping in Cauldron Lake
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,645
Cape Cod, MA
The betting markets are putting the chances of the UK leaving the EU by the end of March at 25%. That's with a deal or without. There's fairly strong belief that there will be some A50 extension/fudge.
Might be worth a flutter. Don't forget the markets are driven by what people expect, more than some secret inside knowledge of this stuff.
 
Oct 25, 2017
169
Might be worth a flutter. Don't forget the markets are driven by what people expect, more than some secret inside knowledge of this stuff.
Yeah I wasn't trying to say that there's some information that we don't have access to. Just wanted to point out that the expected outcome is a lot different than a lot of you expect, and the market shouldn't be completely ignored, especially if the alternative is one or two individual loudmouths with no actual skin in the game.
 

plagiarize

Skinny Dipping in Cauldron Lake
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,645
Cape Cod, MA
Yeah I wasn't trying to say that there's some information that we don't have access to. Just wanted to point out that the expected outcome is a lot different than a lot of you expect, and the market shouldn't be completely ignored, especially if the alternative is one or two individual loudmouths with no actual skin in the game.
Didn't the betting markets greatly overestimate remain's chances back in 2016? Seems like people overestimate how likely the status quo is on this topic, if you ask me.
 
Oct 25, 2017
169
Didn't the betting markets greatly overestimate remain's chances back in 2016? Seems like people overestimate how likely the status quo is on this topic, if you ask me.
I mean the betting markets will always either overestimate or underestimate something if you treat the outcome as having been inevitable...given a certain outcome transpires in the end.

They do however represent the combined understanding of a lot of clever people, and if you think they are wrong I think in a way it's incumbent on you to put your money where your mouth is.
 
Nov 5, 2017
1,068
There's almost certainly going to be a delay. Even if the deal gets passed next week they're going to need snookers to get all the required legislation through in time, and the Lords has been relatively slow at looking at the statutory instruments: they needed to get through 10 a day, they're roughly managing around 3.
 

FliXFantatier

Master of the Reality Stone
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
3,003
Los Angeles
Goodness the mess that is going to occur when the European elections are held...
From Reuters

Key complications are:
  • how long an extension Britain may seek to its two-year exit deadline under Article 50 of the EU treaty — notably whether it leaves before or after the current EU legislature lapses on July 1
  • whether an extension might end up cancelling Brexit altogether
  • whether a need for Britons to vote for new EU representatives could be delayed beyond May
  • whether the new EU chamber will need to ratify the Brexit terms
A European affairs minister from an EU government said the prospect of Britons having to hold a vote in late May to elect MEPs to a chamber they were still about to leave would be “mad politically, but legally we might have no other option”.
 

plagiarize

Skinny Dipping in Cauldron Lake
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
6,645
Cape Cod, MA
I mean the betting markets will always either overestimate or underestimate something if you treat the outcome as having been inevitable...given a certain outcome transpires in the end.

They do however represent the combined understanding of a lot of clever people, and if you think they are wrong I think in a way it's incumbent on you to put your money where your mouth is.
Wikipedia has a specific section on why the betting markets got Brexit so wrong:

On Thursday, June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Even until the moment votes were counted, prediction markets leaned heavily on the side of staying in the EU and failed to predict the outcomes of the vote. According to Michael Traugott, a former president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the reason for the failure of the prediction markets is due to the influence of manipulation and bias shadowed by mass opinion and public opinion.[24] Clouded by the similar mindset of users in prediction markets, they created a paradoxical environment where they began self-reinforcing their initial beliefs (in this case, that the UK would vote to remain in the EU).[24][25] Here, we can observe how crippling bias and lack of diversity of opinion can be in the success of a prediction market.
I constantly run into complete denial from peeps in the UK about brexit causing any issues at all. People seem to be unable to grasp simple concepts like 'extending article 50 requires unanimous approval from EU member nations' and 'article 50 can only be withdrawn if a majority in parliament vote for it'. To pin the combined chance of either May's deal being accepted or failing to prevent no deal at 1 in 4... I'm struggling to see how that's an informed or educated opinion vs the same problem we saw in the Brexit betting markets in 2016.
 
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