BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Garfield · Mar 17, 2019

Just listening to Brexitcast

Laura Keunessberg is adament there is not the numbers for a second vote, even if Labout get behind it, something would have to go wrong for the numbers to change..

also one of her sources told her the Greens, SNP, TIG, LD all wrote to Corbyn asking to meet him about a secoond vote, he was happy to meet to discuss Brexit but not about a second referendum

MrKlaw · Mar 17, 2019

Labour in favour of a credible choice referendum but won't say what that credible choice is until after parliament has voted for it.

MrKlaw · Mar 17, 2019

Garfield said:
Just listening to Brexitcast

Laura Keunessberg is adament there is not the numbers for a second vote, even if Labout get behind it, something would have to go wrong for the numbers to change..

also one of her sources told her the Greens, SNP, TIG, LD all wrote to Corbyn asking to meet him about a secoond vote, he was happy to meet to discuss Brexit but not about a second referendum

I really don't understand why so against it. Vote 1 was super close and only advisory. Parliament unable after 2 years to come to agreement - logic suggests maybe they should seek additional guidance from the public

Koukalaka · Mar 17, 2019

MrKlaw said:
I really don't understand why so against it. Vote 1 was super close and only advisory. Parliament unable after 2 years to come to agreement - logic suggests maybe they should seek additional guidance from the public

Logic? In our political system? Don't be silly.

Garfield · Mar 17, 2019

MrKlaw said:
I really don't understand why so against it. Vote 1 was super close and only advisory. Parliament unable after 2 years to come to agreement - logic suggests maybe they should seek additional guidance from the public

I agree, I think it is just the message Downing Street spout out, and I also think MP's are worried about being de-selected in Tory seats as the Tory membership is hugely leave, something like 80%

SwitchedOff · Mar 17, 2019

Those who want the WA to pass aren't seeing the big picture - even if that happens there's assorted pieces of related legislation to be voted on and passed. The ERG and other Brexiteers will do their best to vote down that legislation because they still selfishly want No Deal. Passing the WA ensures nothing (except for another referendum if Labour's amendment also passes).

Maledict · Mar 17, 2019

MrKlaw said:
I really don't understand why so against it. Vote 1 was super close and only advisory. Parliament unable after 2 years to come to agreement - logic suggests maybe they should seek additional guidance from the public

It's due to two main things:

1) the distribution of leave voters is not equally spread across the country, and it puts pressure on both parties that is disproportionate to their numbers. For the tories, they for, the vast majority of the membership so threaten deselection for sitting MPs. For labour, they are key to the parties vulnerable northern seats which labour *has* to hold to win an election.

2) their is a hugely active press campaign, through the countries most popular newspapers, to leave the EU. There is nothing equivalent on the other side. Every politician advocating for anything than a full throated leave is branded a traitor to the people.

Unfortunately brexit isn't a political or policy issue - it's a cultural issue. People are incredibly reluctant to change their views on a cultural issue, and react very aggressively when challenged on them. Almost all of the shift in polling comes from older people dying, and people who didn't vote last time now saying they will.

Antrax · Mar 17, 2019

Lagamorph said:
Multiple senior figures in Labour have said they would push for Remain being on the ballot, so they'd probably be able to force Corbyn to support that even though he doesn't want it there.

I could see a referendum ending up being one of,

May Deal vs Remain
May Desl vs Remain vs No Deal
May Deal vs Remain vs Labour deal of Unicorns and magic rainbows

I think May's Deal wins all of these. And if there are more than 2 options, get ready for the "winning" option to only be a plurality.

War Peaceman · Mar 17, 2019

Antrax said:
I think May's Deal wins all of these. And if there are more than 2 options, get ready for the "winning" option to only be a plurality.

I think Remain beats May's deal. The crazies won't be as motivated. Remain has a clear goal.

Garfield · Mar 17, 2019

I personally think the only way a second ref gets through is if remain is not an option, I get the anger that would cause, and I have no idea what the question could be especially as 'no deal' has been ruled out

Friendly Monster · Mar 17, 2019

Garfield said:
I personally think the only way a second ref gets through is if remain is not an option, I get the anger that would cause, and I have no idea what the question could be especially as 'no deal' has been ruled out

The EU surely won't allow an extension for a ballot which has no deal on it.

Joni · Mar 17, 2019

The thing is, any referendum to stay is poisoned by the fact that even the English Remainers are not pro-EU. They are just against the consequences of leaving.

Antrax · Mar 17, 2019

War Peaceman said:
The crazies won't be as motivated

Unfortunately I think Remain even being a possibility will get them all riled up to hell and a half.

Uzzy · Mar 17, 2019

Friendly Monster said:
The EU surely won't allow an extension for a ballot which has no deal on it.

Why not? What we put on a domestic ballot paper has nothing to do with the EU, and won't be decided this week in any case. This is just about having a plausible reason for a long extension, and 'we're organising a second referendum/confirmation ballot/people's vote/insert euphemism here' is the best line to take.

Xando said:
I see what you're getting at but he seems to frame it otherwise:

Also can i say that the idea of a referendum with more than two choices seems like a recipe for disaster.

Corbyn's arguing for a credible leave and a credible remain option because he still (rightly) wants a GE, and would shift the UK's red lines in any negotiation with the EU, leading to at the very least a change in the future political declaration. Saying 'Remain vs May's Deal' alienates people and suggests that May's going to be in power for the next 21 months. Keeping the amendment vague and leaving open possibilities increases the chances of it passing.

War Peaceman · Mar 17, 2019

Antrax said:
Unfortunately I think Remain even being a possibility will get them all riled up to hell and a half.

Possibly, but the advantage Leave had originally was they were voting for a fantasy deal so they could project anything onto it. The reverse is true in this case. It was always hard to be enthusiastic about Remain. That is no longer the case.

Friendly Monster · Mar 17, 2019

Uzzy said:
Why not? What we put on a domestic ballot paper has nothing to do with the EU, and won't be decided this week in any case. This is just about having a plausible reason for a long extension, and 'we're organising a second referendum/confirmation ballot/people's vote/insert euphemism here' is the best line to take.

The rEU need to grant that extension and will require assurances about what that extension is for, the ball is in their court. This reeks of typical British self-centred thinking when it comes to Europe.

Funky Papa · Mar 17, 2019

Joni said:
The thing is, any referendum to stay is poisoned by the fact that even the English Remainers are not pro-EU. They are just against the consequences of leaving.

☝️

Calabi · Mar 17, 2019

Antrax said:
I think May's Deal wins all of these. And if there are more than 2 options, get ready for the "winning" option to only be a plurality.

If May's deal does win then I think people might be shocked/surprised when they find out it isn't actually a deal, and only the beginning, and all the other stuff that comes with(banking system wiped out, it being even harder to get out, no say in anything etc)

Xando · Mar 17, 2019

Joni said:
The thing is, any referendum to stay is poisoned by the fact that even the English Remainers are not pro-EU. They are just against the consequences of leaving.

Which is why i think it would be best for us (EU) to not grant an extension past the elections. We need to make sure the chaos in britain doesn't spread over to the continent and having brexiteers or remainers who only want to remain because it benefits them will cause continued disruption.

I'd very much favor UK leaving now (Best case we park them in EEA) and rejoin 10-15 years from now if they actually want to participate.

Brexit will cause way too many issues for us in the EU workings if the extension goes past the elections.

Uzzy · Mar 17, 2019

Friendly Monster said:
The rEU need to grant that extension and will require assurances about what that extension is for, the ball is in their court. This reeks of typical British self-centred thinking when it comes to Europe.

The extension is for a second referendum on Brexit. That's the point of the amendment. The wording and terms of the referendum are entirely a matter for the UK Government to decide upon.

Honestly, the wording isn't worth worrying about at this stage. It'll be May's Deal vs Remain anyway, provided it gets through. The ERG might try to get No Deal on the ballot, but that's a fight for a future date.

kadotsu · Mar 17, 2019

I also think that going for a EEA style Brexit is the best available option. I believe that for many people the years of normalization of Brexit through the British press would lead leave to an easy second victory.

Bony Manifesto · Mar 17, 2019

Uzzy said:
The extension is for a second referendum on Brexit. That's the point of the amendment. The wording and terms of the referendum are entirely a matter for the UK Government to decide upon.

Not really. Remember that an extension needs unanimous support from all EU member states; it's not some technicality that they're 'forced' to allow the UK an extension. They can approve or deny the UK's request for any reason they choose.

Uzzy · Mar 17, 2019

Bony Manifesto said:
Not really. Remember that an extension needs unanimous support from all EU member states; it's not some technicality that they're 'forced' to allow the UK an extension. They can approve or deny the UK's request for any reason they choose.

Sure, but that's not my point. The member states interfering in what would be an internal matter (the terms and wording of a second referendum) would be manna from heaven from the Brexiteers. Putting conditions on the extension for a second referendum would likely be disastrous.

Cobalt Thorium G · Mar 17, 2019

Joni · Mar 17, 2019

Uzzy said:
Sure, but that's not my point. The member states interfering in what would be an internal matter (the terms and wording of a second referendum) would be manna from heaven from the Brexiteers. Putting conditions on the extension for a second referendum would likely be disastrous.

It wouldn't matter anymore. The minute that the rEU decides to put conditions on the referendum is also the minute they make clear they no longer care about a No Deal Brexit. It is calling the UK's bluff.

Blue Lou · Mar 17, 2019

kadotsu said:
I also think that going for a EEA style Brexit is the best available option. I believe that for many people the years of normalization of Brexit through the British press would lead leave to an easy second victory.

All it would have took first time around for remian to win was to tell people their EHIC cards would no longer be valid, the price of holidays would increase, travel insurance within EU would increase and you'd have to pay a fee to enter the EU after we exit.

Friendly Monster · Mar 17, 2019

Blue Lou said:
All it would have took first time around for remian to win was to tell people their EHIC cards would no longer be valid, the price of holidays would increase, travel insurance within EU would increase and you'd have to pay a fee to enter the EU after we exit.

Sounds like project fear to me.

MrKlaw · Mar 17, 2019

Parliament doesn't want mays deal - mays deal shouldn't be on referendum

Parliament doesn't want no deal - no deal shouldn't be on the referendum

Tygre · Mar 17, 2019

Since it looks like we might be staying in long enough to have to hold them:

plagiarize · Mar 17, 2019

Uzzy said:
Sure, but that's not my point. The member states interfering in what would be an internal matter (the terms and wording of a second referendum) would be manna from heaven from the Brexiteers. Putting conditions on the extension for a second referendum would likely be disastrous.

Do you think the EU cares about Brexiteers opinions on anything at this point?

Koukalaka · Mar 17, 2019

Tygre said:
Since it looks like we might be staying in long enough to have to hold them:

Interesting Kipper numbers, going down despite all the "Brexit Betrayal" talk. I wonder if the move to pivot hard to cater to the alt-right "memelord" and "FREE TOMMEH" crowds has backfired.

Edit: didn't see it was a change since 2014. At least it's likely that utter arse David Coburn will lose his seat up here if we do take part.

AHA-Lambda · Mar 17, 2019

Tygre said:
Since it looks like we might be staying in long enough to have to hold them:

Good to see UKIP down

Koukalaka · Mar 17, 2019

AHA-Lambda said:
Good to see UKIP down

Not to mention Farage's new party will split their votes and might lose the right a few seats even under PR.

Micael · Mar 17, 2019

Doubt those numbers would stay like that if brexit gets delayed or gets canceled.

Kyougar · Mar 17, 2019

Bony Manifesto said:
Not really. Remember that an extension needs unanimous support from all EU member states; it's not some technicality that they're 'forced' to allow the UK an extension. They can approve or deny the UK's request for any reason they choose.

Revoking Article 50 is way easier than getting an extension from the EU. The EU just doesn't want to point that out because they are at the point that they WANT the UK out of the EU (or rather a terrible end than unending terror. )

Uzzy said:
Sure, but that's not my point. The member states interfering in what would be an internal matter (the terms and wording of a second referendum) would be manna from heaven from the Brexiteers. Putting conditions on the extension for a second referendum would likely be disastrous.

Who cares. The UK is cranky regardless of what the EU does. The EU could go out saving kittens and babys and the Uk would find some fault with it.

Spaghetti · Mar 17, 2019

Fucking hate when people say "I voted to Leave, so I thought we'd do just that", with absolutely zero idea that you can't possibly untangle 40 years of economic and political integration without some kind of deal. This isn't your average punter on the street either, this was some kind of Vote Leave person (didn't catch their name) on Radio 5 Live last night, sadly dancing rings around a fairly tepid and unprepared presenter unwilling to challenge this absolute melt on the facts and reality.

Deleted member 835 · Mar 17, 2019

theaface · Mar 17, 2019

If nothing else, it's going to be jolly good fun watching the gammoniest members of the ERG like Mark Francois do the media circuit next week explaining why the deal which was totally unacceptable last week is now totally palatable the next despite zero changes.

The great irony of course is that May's deal makes us far more like the vassal state that the Brexiteers were so afraid than EU membership ever did. On that basis alone they should want to vote her deal down, but won't.

Deleted member 835 · Mar 17, 2019

theaface said:
If nothing else, it's going to be jolly good fun watching the gammoniest members of the ERG like Mark Francois do the media circuit next week explaining why the deal which was totally unacceptable last week is now totally palatable the next despite zero changes.

The great irony of course is that May's deal makes us far more like the vassal state that the Brexiteers were so afraid than EU membership ever did. On that basis alone they should want to vote her deal down, but won't.

Yeh it all about trying to look like they are saving face and standing up for Brexit. Her deal is basically Brexit light.

Ac30 · Mar 17, 2019

Beefy said:

Man, I'm still in awe that the EU may have managed to get the UK to swallow this deal after all. It spares them the economic damage but it's complete shit from a sovereignty perspective.

At least it'll stop other countries from leaving lol

IpKaiFung · Mar 17, 2019

Deleted member 835 · Mar 17, 2019

Ac30 said:
Man, I'm still in awe that the EU may have managed to get the UK to swallow this deal after all. It spares them the economic damage but it's complete shit from a sovereignty perspective.

At least it'll stop other countries from leaving lol

If her deal gets voted in, I give it a 2 years until UK is back in Customs Union

Funky Papa · Mar 17, 2019

IpKaiFung said:

Playground-grade politicking.

Stuart444 · Mar 17, 2019

I still hope they say her deal can't come back next week because.. I mean for fuck sakes.

this would be the 3rd 'meaningful' vote.

No real changes either, just the same thing for a 3rd time. Undemocratic as fuck.

Deleted member 835 · Mar 17, 2019

Deleted member 835 · Mar 17, 2019

The size of the march.... it crazy huge

FliX · Mar 17, 2019

GS_Dan said:
This was a larf

Ac30 said:
Man, I'm still in awe that the EU may have managed to get the UK to swallow this deal after all. It spares them the economic damage but it's complete shit from a sovereignty perspective.

At least it'll stop other countries from leaving lol

the Eu didn't do shit. This is all on the UK.

Deleted member 835 · Mar 17, 2019

Deleted member 862 · Mar 17, 2019

Err... if the backstop comes into force then the entire UK would be in it so any changes to EU rules would apply to everyone anyway.

Also the idea that this would calm people down when we would become a unilateral rule taker in a deal we can't unilaterally exit is hilarious. The Brexit lot are probably frothing at the the mouth at the idea.

Calabi · Mar 17, 2019

Beefy said:
If her deal gets voted in, I give it a 2 years until UK is back in Customs Union

That's if they allow us back in. Its going to be hilarious to see them justify the change in stance, how could the DUP even trust her, she's the most treacherous, dumbest politician ever. But then its all just games and nonsense to them. I think when people realise the DUP will be dead in the voters eyes.

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