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Tygre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,090
Chesire, UK
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The problem with this chart: No Deal is not an outcome that requires a specific series of actions. It merely requires the passage of time.

The bottom of every line should lead to No Deal, and No Deal should also be sprinkled liberally throughout, with a note that "If this doesn't happen by Midnight CET 29th March, it's No Deal."


"MPs block No Deal" is just a nonsense node to have in a chart like this. MPs do not have the power to stop time, nor do they have the power of the Executive.

The only way to "block" No Deal is to have A Deal. Before March 29th. Midnight. CET. That "deal" might involve an extension. That "deal" might be a revocation of Article 50. But just having a GE or forming a new Government does not in any way preclude No Deal.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
I must admit, I didn't really realise just how little leverage the UK will have at transition point in 2020. I thought the EU was too generous to the UK but if you actually look at the decision sequence: it's a fiendishly clever vise the EU will have put the UK in.

In mid 2020 if the trade deal isn't ready (it won't be) the UK can decide to ask the EU to extend the transition by one or two years or we fall into the backstop (which contrary to the bleating is actually pretty good for the EU; legally problematic, but since the EU has a trade surplus in goods and a trade deficit in Services with the UK it's not really that bad). For the UK it's both politically problematic and economically problematic to go into the backstop and the UK wide CU so they'll want to avoid it.

But here's the rub, if you look at the deal, Extension of Transition is decided by the Joint Committee (Art.132), which is composed of representatives of UK and EU so the EU have to agree, and at that point if there's no agreement it goes to the CJEU not arbitration. Now there's a lot of goodwill blah, blah, blah in there, but since the UK and EU will really have only been talking about trade for about 6 months (after the European elections and the subsequent re-configuring of the Commission is out of the way) the EU can easily say there's not enough currently agreed to be able say a transition extension would be enough. It's another clicking clock, one which the EU can say we'll need to at least get agreement on say Fisheries or Agriculture etc before we'd have confidence the current agreement is far enough along.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
MPs block No Deal" is just a nonsense node to have in a chart like this. MPs do not have the power to stop time, nor do they have the power of the Executive.

The PM that forces the country into a no deal against Parliament and a divided country had better have an emergency hiding hole when it all goes tits up. She won't like the precedent of parliament treading on the toes of the executive but i think she will back off with what is at stake.
 

gosublime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,428
Brexit Barometer on Radio 5 Live winds me up every morning. This morning's caller - Lee - was explaining how there was going to be no fall in GDP because it was as made up as the Millennium Bug. He then proceeded to explain how he personally had disproved the Bug to 6 different people by setting his video recorder in to 15 minutes past midnight, 2000 in the summer of 1999.

He then called Mark Carny 'economically illiterate'.
 

Xun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,314
London
Brexit Barometer on Radio 5 Live winds me up every morning. This morning's caller - Lee - was explaining how there was going to be no fall in GDP because it was as made up as the Millennium Bug. He then proceeded to explain how he personally had disproved the Bug to 6 different people by setting his video recorder in to 15 minutes past midnight, 2000 in the summer of 1999.

He then called Mark Carny 'economically illiterate'.
Phenomenal stuff.

The delusion some people have will forever be baffling.
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,662
I love how we don't take the millennium bug thing as a great example of proper planning and implementation of a complex set of fixes. Nope, because aeroplanes didn't fall out of the sky it was all a hoax.

How some of these people don't drown in the shower is beyond me.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,320
Brexit Barometer on Radio 5 Live winds me up every morning. This morning's caller - Lee - was explaining how there was going to be no fall in GDP because it was as made up as the Millennium Bug. He then proceeded to explain how he personally had disproved the Bug to 6 different people by setting his video recorder in to 15 minutes past midnight, 2000 in the summer of 1999.

He then called Mark Carny 'economically illiterate'.

It's amazing what sorts of crazy a mild platform can attract. I went to a science conference that was open to the public, and during the keynote Q&A a dude started asking an innocuous sounding question about the importance of maths. Which of course spiralled into his grand theorem that everything universe can be solved via the algorithm and thus all resources should go towards solving that. Even brought along a poster the mad sod. Apparently he crashed a couple other panels as well.
 

Timmm

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,885
Manchester, UK
Brexit Barometer on Radio 5 Live winds me up every morning. This morning's caller - Lee - was explaining how there was going to be no fall in GDP because it was as made up as the Millennium Bug. He then proceeded to explain how he personally had disproved the Bug to 6 different people by setting his video recorder in to 15 minutes past midnight, 2000 in the summer of 1999.

He then called Mark Carny 'economically illiterate'.

Having the name "Lee" seems to make you much more susceptible to becoming a gammon - it seems like most of the time i see someone called Lee on Twitter, they're talking some absolute fucking bollocks about Brexit
 

Goodlifr

Member
Nov 6, 2017
1,885
Sent Email to my MP....
She's Labour, so pretty sure she'll be voting it down, but wanted to get it off my chest.


"Just wanted to drop an email ahead of the crucial vote in the commons on the 11th around the PM's Brexit deal.

Firstly, I voted to Remain in the referendum. I am a very keen believer in the European Project and despite knowing it is far from perfect, I truly believe that we as a country should become as integrated to Europe as possible.
Over the summer holidays we took a 3 week camping holiday with our young kids across Europe, visiting 5 different countries seamlessly, each with their own unique and distinct culture and it was a real joy to see.
I am genuinely sad that my kids (7,6 and 4) might not have the opportunity to travel, live and love across Europe that previous generations have been able to.

But, I also know that there was a referendum and leave won. I understand the reasons (well, think I do) for this. At the time of the vote we were in the 6th year of austerity which was / is hurting the most vulnerable in society and people / politicians / the media started to blame immigration and the EU for our ills, rather than pointing the finger firmly at the Tory government. The Leave campaign promised things would change, Remain promised things would stay the same and those with nothing, or very little, understandably, wanted things to change.

However, they were sold lies. They were promised things would get better, any negative stories were classified as "Project Fear" and the MSM backed up those lies, day after day.
The Leave campaign was based on lies and likely funded in part by illegal donations.

It's a almost impossible situation that has now been created. Cameron gave people who felt disenfranchised a chance to make a change. People took that chance and I understand the anger that's going to be created if they then get ignored.

But any form of Brexit, May's deal, Corbyn's proposed deal, Norway++++ or a hard Brexit is going to have a massive impact on the vulnerable and poorest in our society and it's got to be up to Parliament to stop that happening and then, somehow, deal with the consequences of that, because they are going to be a lot less severe then Brexit will be.

So, I'm hoping you'll vote May's deal down on the 11th, along with the rest of the Labour party.

The question of what happens next is a hard one, if we offer another referendum, there is still a chance that Leave could win again... but at least voting down this deal is the first step on a long journey to sort this issue created by Cameron."
 

*Splinter

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,087
Hold on I thought he was voting for May's deal based on the promise he made rather than because he agrees with it. "Irreconcilable differences" is pretty crazy spin (even if it is a quote)
 

Garfield

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 31, 2018
2,772
Things are happening

Graham Brady (powerful MP) has told the BBC that May could delay the vote so they can explore the way of leaving the backstop, he would welcome such a move, unless she can convince him in the next few days of her idea of parliament blocking the back stop

EU is going to be very pissed off
 

Gareth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,433
Norn Iron
Things are happening

Graham Brady (powerful MP) has told the BBC that May could delay the vote so they can explore the way of leaving the backstop, he would welcome such a move, unless she can convince him in the next few days of her idea of parliament blocking the back stop

EU is going to be very pissed off
One more kick of the can? I don't see how they can avoid having a proper backstop.
 

Garfield

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 31, 2018
2,772
One more kick of the can? I don't see how they can avoid having a proper backstop.

Katie Adger (Eu correspondent) said on radio 4 that the WA is a legally binding agreement, so if UK Parliament were to block the backstop then the UK parliament would be breaking international law
 

Tygre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,090
Chesire, UK
Sent Email to my MP....
She's Labour, so pretty sure she'll be voting it down, but wanted to get it off my chest.

Making sure your MP is aware of your strongly held views is an important part of our democracy, so good on you.

The following Labour (or former Labour) MPs have currently not given a public position on how they intend to vote on May's deal:

John Mann – Bassetlaw
Ian Austin – Dudley North
Sir Kevin Barron – Rother Valley
John Spellar – Warley
Jim Fitzpatrick – Poplar and Limehouse
Frank Field – Birkenhead
John Woodcock – Barrow and Furness
Kelvin Hopkins – Luton North

Anyone living in any of the above constituencies would be doing a service to democracy by writing to their MP and making their feelings clear.
 

Zutroy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,588
If we had a second referendum and remain won, we'd have a few weeks of noise and pushback before things died down and we moved on.

If leave won again we'd continue to have years of disorder and angst among the public.

So any MP or person that says we should leave to 'just get on with it' can go fuck themselves.
 

Garfield

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 31, 2018
2,772
Not surprised debates got cancelled. May went like a GE. Got told "what you doing" public are not voting. So she dropped all her tours of UK.
 

Guppeth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,800
Sheffield, UK
Making sure your MP is aware of your strongly held views is an important part of our democracy, so good on you.

The following Labour (or former Labour) MPs have currently not given a public position on how they intend to vote on May's deal:

John Mann – Bassetlaw
Ian Austin – Dudley North
Sir Kevin Barron – Rother Valley
John Spellar – Warley
Jim Fitzpatrick – Poplar and Limehouse
Frank Field – Birkenhead
John Woodcock – Barrow and Furness
Kelvin Hopkins – Luton North

Anyone living in any of the above constituencies would be doing a service to democracy by writing to their MP and making their feelings clear.
Thanks for this. I'm in Rother Valley so I'll let Kev know what's what.
 

plagiarize

Eating crackers
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,491
Cape Cod, MA
Brexit Barometer on Radio 5 Live winds me up every morning. This morning's caller - Lee - was explaining how there was going to be no fall in GDP because it was as made up as the Millennium Bug. He then proceeded to explain how he personally had disproved the Bug to 6 different people by setting his video recorder in to 15 minutes past midnight, 2000 in the summer of 1999.

He then called Mark Carny 'economically illiterate'.
I work in IT. Nothing frustrates me more than people pointing to a disaster my industry averted, as an example of a time when people freaked out about nothing.

We worked countless hours to fix that shit before it caused any problems.
 

Deleted member 5028

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,724

This gammon motherfucker. Huw_Dawson what's the odds on him being expelled from the party for this?

On the flip side I emailed my MP Alan Whitehead in Fremantle, Southampton and he told me he's voting no. Good man!

Thank you for taking the time to contact me about the current situation surrounding Brexit. Everyone will know now that, less than four months from the end of the period allowed for it by the unwise and premature triggering of Article 50 notifying the EU of the UK's intention to leave the EU, a 'deal' of sorts has been agreed upon by the Government and EU negotiators which sets out what the UK's relationship will be with the EU after Brexit is complete.

The 'deal' however falls very far short of what could constitute a reasonable outcome for that future relationship: it fails to conclude any sort of arrangement whereby the UK remains in or close to the customs union or the single market, and it fails to provide a satisfactory solution to the problem of trade and the Northern Ireland border. It is such a sketchy agreement that most areas of concern about future arrangements on trade, border issues, security, movement and many other issues remain to be negotiated after the UK has left the EU. A 'transitional period' is envisaged while those negotiations take place during which the UK, even though it will have left the EU, will take whatever rules are imposed upon it by the EU without any say in the processes, and will be required to 'negotiate' on the basis of no position at all in relation to the EU. The government's own estimates suggest that Britain would be substantially worse off if the deal was agreed.

This deal is so poor that I cannot seriously believe that many people, if they had known the outcome, would have voted for it as part of the referendum process. For that reason, I cannot support it and will vote against it when Parliament has the opportunity to consider it on 11th December.
 

FSP

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,644
London, United Kingdom
This gammon motherfucker. Huw_Dawson what's the odds on him being expelled from the party for this?

Not much of one. He's only voting for the Agreement because he pledged to do so if he was voted back in as MP in 2017. If we get a snap GE or something he'll probably stand as the LD candidate again.

The dude's not a gammon. His resignation letter was pretty clear that he thinks Brexit is a stupid idea.

It's a tricky one which would have been easily solved had he not made the pledge in the first place.

Fortunately his action is symbolic rather than anything else. The WA is toast and he'll vote No Confidence in the government when it comes to it.
 
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