Does anybody else feel like Conservative policy is unraveling at a rapid pace?
Austerity has been shot to pieces and proven as harming the most vulnerable in our society, their handling of the NHS has been heavily criticised with advice telling them to undo the 2012 reforms, the benefits freeze could be ending as soon as next year, Universal Credit is dead in its current state, even the wheels are falling off deficit reduction, etc.
Even outside of Brexit, it feels like the near-decade of Conservatives in power will be defined by failure, and making everything far worse.
Does anybody else feel like Conservative policy is unraveling at a rapid pace?
Austerity has been shot to pieces and proven as harming the most vulnerable in our society, their handling of the NHS has been heavily criticised with advice telling them to undo the 2012 reforms, the benefits freeze could be ending as soon as next year, Universal Credit is dead in its current state, even the wheels are falling off deficit reduction, etc.
Even outside of Brexit, it feels like the near-decade of Conservatives in power will be defined by failure, and making everything far worse.
It's a great speech. He's one of the very few genuinely inspiring politicians around at the moment.
Yea indeed! All family gatherings have been awful since the vote - everyone afraid of causing a row. My family is split 50/50 with it being younger vs older (with the exception of my younger sister....).
Everyone generally just avoids talking about it especially because my partner is Polish and she is likely to punch someone haha.
Same for my parents and my partners parents. Both are Leave voters and both share xenophobic sentiments they swear are justified with the usual bullshit rhetoric and the EU being the devil for the past forty years.
Every time Brexit is mentioned it gets heated, so we just avoid it entirely. Last one was a week or two before Christmas and everyone left feeling pretty shit.
Does anybody else feel like Conservative policy is unraveling at a rapid pace?
Austerity has been shot to pieces and proven as harming the most vulnerable in our society, their handling of the NHS has been heavily criticised with advice telling them to undo the 2012 reforms, the benefits freeze could be ending as soon as next year, Universal Credit is dead in its current state, even the wheels are falling off deficit reduction, etc.
Even outside of Brexit, it feels like the near-decade of Conservatives in power will be defined by failure, and making everything far worse.
No, quite the opposite.
We see that you can shit on democracy and still be in power. We see that there are not nearly enough checks in place to kick out bad-faith-actors in the government. We see that you can fail upwards. We see that the boomers are fucking us and we can do nothing against it. We see "fuck-you-got-mine".
What we see is the unraveling of a functioning society, unraveling of Democracy that was built on dreams and good faith and the realization that dreams and good faith can't be upheld if those in power weaponize democracy at it's core.
Might be worth a flutter. Don't forget the markets are driven by what people expect, more than some secret inside knowledge of this stuff.The betting markets are putting the chances of the UK leaving the EU by the end of March at 25%. That's with a deal or without. There's fairly strong belief that there will be some A50 extension/fudge.
Yeah I wasn't trying to say that there's some information that we don't have access to. Just wanted to point out that the expected outcome is a lot different than a lot of you expect, and the market shouldn't be completely ignored, especially if the alternative is one or two individual loudmouths with no actual skin in the game.Might be worth a flutter. Don't forget the markets are driven by what people expect, more than some secret inside knowledge of this stuff.
Didn't the betting markets greatly overestimate remain's chances back in 2016? Seems like people overestimate how likely the status quo is on this topic, if you ask me.Yeah I wasn't trying to say that there's some information that we don't have access to. Just wanted to point out that the expected outcome is a lot different than a lot of you expect, and the market shouldn't be completely ignored, especially if the alternative is one or two individual loudmouths with no actual skin in the game.
I mean the betting markets will always either overestimate or underestimate something if you treat the outcome as having been inevitable...given a certain outcome transpires in the end.Didn't the betting markets greatly overestimate remain's chances back in 2016? Seems like people overestimate how likely the status quo is on this topic, if you ask me.
Key complications are:
- how long an extension Britain may seek to its two-year exit deadline under Article 50 of the EU treaty — notably whether it leaves before or after the current EU legislature lapses on July 1
- whether an extension might end up cancelling Brexit altogether
- whether a need for Britons to vote for new EU representatives could be delayed beyond May
- whether the new EU chamber will need to ratify the Brexit terms
A European affairs minister from an EU government said the prospect of Britons having to hold a vote in late May to elect MEPs to a chamber they were still about to leave would be "mad politically, but legally we might have no other option".
Wikipedia has a specific section on why the betting markets got Brexit so wrong:I mean the betting markets will always either overestimate or underestimate something if you treat the outcome as having been inevitable...given a certain outcome transpires in the end.
They do however represent the combined understanding of a lot of clever people, and if you think they are wrong I think in a way it's incumbent on you to put your money where your mouth is.
On Thursday, June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Even until the moment votes were counted, prediction markets leaned heavily on the side of staying in the EU and failed to predict the outcomes of the vote. According to Michael Traugott, a former president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the reason for the failure of the prediction markets is due to the influence of manipulation and bias shadowed by mass opinion and public opinion.[24] Clouded by the similar mindset of users in prediction markets, they created a paradoxical environment where they began self-reinforcing their initial beliefs (in this case, that the UK would vote to remain in the EU).[24][25] Here, we can observe how crippling bias and lack of diversity of opinion can be in the success of a prediction market.
I'm so there for the fuckery.Goodness the mess that is going to occur when the European elections are held...
From Reuters
Ok so you should put a lot of money on that belief.I constantly run into complete denial from peeps in the UK about brexit causing any issues at all. People seem to be unable to grasp simple concepts like 'extending article 50 requires unanimous approval from EU member nations' and 'article 50 can only be withdrawn if a majority in parliament vote for it'. To pin the combined chance of either May's deal being accepted or no deal somehow being prevented at 1 in 4... I'm struggling to see how that's an informed or educated opinion vs the same problem we saw in the Brexit betting markets in 2016.
You know what 'might be worth a flutter' means yes?
So you did put money on it? Not just said you should put money on it?You know what 'might be worth a flutter' means yes?
I think they're understating how likely it is, so I think odds of winning are better than 1 in 4. I don't think it's impossible that there is a delay. I've explained why I think that. Not sure what else there is to say at this point.
You know what the word 'might' means.So you did put money on it? Not just said you should put money on it?
You also said "a lot of money", a 'flutter' implies betting maybe £5-20 of completely disposable income.So you did put money on it? Not just said you should put money on it?
Goodness the mess that is going to occur when the European elections are held...
From Reuters
DER SPIEGEL: Your party is holding the nation hostage over its unresolved struggle over Europe. Where has all the reason and willingness to compromise gone?
Davis: You think it's just the Conservative Party? Where is the willingness to compromise in the European Commission or in Germany? It's regrettable that we have come to this point. Our negotiation strategy was initially to try and get a win-win out of this. The EU was determined for it not to be a win on our side. Indeed, Mrs. Merkel, I think, said in terms Britain cannot be seen to gain from this.
Source
Pretty much everything so far has proven that they're barely able to mobilise, let alone in significant numbers but they need to keep that threat at the front of people's minds.Blocking Brexit could lead to a surge in far-right extremism in the UK, the transport secretary has said.
Chris Grayling told the Daily Mail that failing to leave the EU would cause the 17 million people who voted for Brexit to feel "cheated".
This could end centuries of "moderate" politics in the UK, he said, as he urged his colleagues to back Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal.
And te official reason given for that was that its 'politically sensitive.Just watched Brexit an Uncivil War, and fucking hell...
It lead me to look into AggregateIQ, which in turn lead to Cambridge Analytica and Facebook etc. I'd heard the basics before, but never in this much detail.
I'm suprised that this hasn't lead to a 2nd ref.
Edit: and police investigation into Leave, has stalled ? Wtf.
And te official reason given for that was that its 'politically sensitive.
Such utter bullshit.
Hattersley said: "I don't think many people would regard Chris Grayling as an expert on these matters or, indeed, on anything."
Today, in scaremongering people to vote for something that they don't want: Blocking Brexit could incite far-right extremism (headline taken from my BBC homepage, for some reason it's not the headline of the article itself and that specific quote isn't in the article).
Pretty much everything so far has proven that they're barely able to mobilise, let alone in significant numbers but they need to keep that threat at the front of people's minds.
I understand the sentiment but trust me, Japan does NOT have ample supply of Wagyu and a lot of it is exported. Japan imports most of their 'consumer' beef from Australia, and Wagyu is a strictly 'premium' export product. Japan's farming strategy is largely informed by the fact it's a very mountainous country that isn't suited to livestock and large scale farming so have instead pivoted to making smaller quantities of premium produce which they aggressively market and export and use the profit to import day to day food. The EU trade deal is a massive win for Japan for this reason! (though it took them a while to convince farmers of this fact)Even if he weren't being disnhonest, do we really think the Japanese, with plentiful supply of "wagyu" are going to want to import any of our beef? And they don't eat lamb over there either. Might as well do a deal with the Saudi's to supply sand and pork.
I knew people would balk at it coming from Owen Jones, but it was the poll results I wanted to post and I couldn't figure out an easier way of posting them from my phone since Survation didn't tweet them separately.Owen Jones is a Corbyn Fanboy. He will have smoulders of a country if he lets no deal go ahead
It's our usual racists except now they're easier to see at night.Is there even a yellow vest protest on the streets in the UK? or are these just armchair yellow vest protesters?