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Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,694
The stupidest thing about the current predicament is that the UK is at a fingertip's reach from a deal. A crappy deal, but a deal that would still be a rotund improvement over No Breaks Brexit.

The Lehman Brothers analogy is starting to become scarily apt. "We are too big to fail, they'll bend over". "Too many smart people in the room, somebody will figure out something".
 

Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,694
The UK is not exactly a frail old lady skipping at the supermarket line.

Besides that, Brexit has only amplified the distrust from some member states. And newer members would rightly throw a shit fit over it.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
Anyone here not stockpiling food, at least in some fashion?

Not yet, I am thinking of beating my neighbours to death for their tinned goods post brexit. Or I might go to Tesco in a couple of weeks and stock up.

Actually thinking about it seriously, dairy is supposed to be an issue, we don't produce nearly enough and the tarrifs are quite high.
 

Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,694
If you are REALLY serious about it, prioritize canned and freeze dried food. They last forever (much longer than their declared "best before" and even expiration dates) and are obviously shelf-stable.

Also, I cannot believe I'm talking about stockpiling food in a first world nation with no propensity to natural disasters. But here we are. The chances of folks needing to go full prepper are kind of small, but unmanaged No Deal could be so potentially bad that this particular topic is kind of losing its taboo.

After all, it only takes a shortage on a certain product to cause severe disruptions (plural) down the chain.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
If you are REALLY serious about it, prioritize canned and freeze dried food. They last forever (much longer than their declared "best before" and even expiration dates) and are obviously shelf-stable.

Also, I cannot believe I'm talking about stockpiling food in a first world nation with no propensity to natural disasters. But here we are. The chances of folks needing to go full prepper are kind of small, but unmanaged No Deal could be so potentially bad that this particular topic is kind of losing its taboo.

After all, it only takes a shortage on a certain product to cause severe disruptions (plural) down the chain.

The fact we could be doing the dumbest thing imaginable at the worst time of the year doesn't help, so it really does have the potential to get very bad, very quickly.

But I'm still hoping we avoid that scenario.
 

Sir Hound

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,195
It says a lot about both Labour and the Lib Dems that they're both so far behind in the polls next to this Tory government, after ten years of austerity and a total fumbling of the Brexit process. Never mind forcing a GE, when are Labour going to get rid of this fucker?
 

Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,694
I mean, I don't believe it's going to be anywhere close to Venezuela levels of scarcity, but rural areas could be hit pretty badly if trade becomes an unsolvable mess for the next few months.

At very least it makes sense to stockpile a certain amount food just in case prices skyrocket.

This conversation feels stupid.
 

WillyGubbins

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,453
Glasgow
Also, I cannot believe I'm talking about stockpiling food in a first world nation with no propensity to natural disasters. But here we are. The chances of folks needing to go full prepper are kind of small, but unmanaged No Deal could be so potentially bad that this particular topic is kind of losing its taboo.

After all, it only takes a shortage on a certain product to cause severe disruptions (plural) down the chain.

Around this time last year in Glasgow, there was some unexpected heavy snow. Within 48 hours it was impossible to find bread or milk and various other things in a supermarket. And that was just a couple of days of bad weather.
 
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Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
What is the EU supposed to tell other countries that want to join but have to go through year long evaluations?
Maybe not rejoin but to struck a deal (not very favourable to UK).

If that scenario really happen the gain for the the 'remainers' tories would be that they could say they followed the people mandate to do a brexit but that the consequences were so severe that they had to somewhat put a patch and at the same time they could put the blame on the hardest 'leavers' supporters (both within the Tory party and other parties) by stating they lied to people on the severe pain to the nation brexit would cause.
EU would gain that it would be a strong example of how , despite all the issues, the EU is overall beneficial and it's better to side with it (in May there are the EU parliament elections and that could be used as a weapon against the populist movements).

An hard brexit is a lose-lose proposition for both UK and EU but it could be useful for political means if it is short lived.
 
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Dougald

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,937
I'm already stockpiling, but that's mostly because I shop at Costco once a month and it's kind of impossible not to overbuy things, so I wouldn't say I have a lot more food in the house than I do usually. I won't deny I have bought some extra dried and canned goods though.
 

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
14,527
London
I mean, I don't believe it's going to be anywhere close to Venezuela levels of scarcity, but rural areas could be hit pretty badly if trade becomes an unsolvable mess for the next few months.

At very least it makes sense to stockpile a certain amount food just in case prices skyrocket.

This conversation feels stupid.

U.K. dropping all tariffs and just not doing import checks will help there no?

It'll kill domestic producers and be a criminal free for all if they do that though.
 

Timmm

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,885
Manchester, UK
We started "stockpiling" a couple weeks ago - just stuff like flour, pasta, cereals and tinned food. Live in a flat so freezer space isn't something we have a huge amount of

It will be pretty fucking grim if that ends up being our diet tbh, but at least it's there

What I think will happen is a piloted 'hard brexit'.
They will let the people taste the bitter pill for a few weeks and then after chaos ensures and people are scared enough they will sign a deal with EU to rejoin.
It would be a win win scenario for both the tories (they could say that they delivered on the brexit referendum and then course correct a wrong decision caused by brexiteers) and EU (which will have an exemplary case for everyone that think leaving EU is a good idea).

Most of the people who voted Leave will believe in it until they die. They won't take any blame for it being a disaster, and immigrants and/or the EU will be blamed for the huge drop in everyone-but-the-wealthy's living standards. This won't happen

I fully believe the U.K. will never rejoin the EU. At most I can see EEA and even that seems unlikely, because free movement is scary for many of you.

Yep, once we are out that's it. I can see a future where voters would be willing to take back FoM if/when things get really bad in the UK, but can't see them accepting a deal where the UK doesn't get all the opt-outs the UK had managed to negotiate
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
U.K. dropping all tariffs and just not doing import checks will help there no?

It'll kill domestic producers and be a criminal free for all if they do that though.

Isn't there still going to be transportation issues with all the trucks getting stuck heading to the EU? They can't come in with goods if they can't get out in time.
 

Dougald

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,937
On the bright side when there's a bread shortage I can make a fortune selling off bits of my sourdough starter to hungry millennials
 

Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,694
U.K. dropping all tariffs and just not doing import checks will help there no?

It'll kill domestic producers and be a criminal free for all if they do that though.
No tariffs would mean that the UK's highly specialized industries would be nuked right away and replaced by EU, American and Chinese imports.

Good news: no food shortages.
Bad news: you just kindly handed out your economy to foreign powers and set yourself with a high potential for health disasters (read: some industrious fuck decides to sell denatured oil as cooking oil, which has happened before). You are now Aliexpress' fiefdom.

The potential ramifications of Blind Brexit are so insane it instantly veers into highly speculative disaster pornography.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
Bakker buckets, you get a free shovel and can use the empty container as a toilet.

There's no need to stockpile.
 

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
14,527
London
No tariffs would mean that the UK's highly specialized industries would be nuked right away and replaced by EU, American and Chinese imports.

Good news: no food shortages.
Bad news: you just kindly handed out your economy to foreign powers and set yourself with a high potential for health disasters (read: some industrious fuck decides to sell denatured oil as cooking oil, which has happened before). You are now Aliexpress' fiefdom.

The potential ramifications of Blind Brexit are so insane it instantly veers into highly speculative disaster pornography.

It does! It would mess up the economy but it would solve the food shortages, at least. The U.K. really doesn't have many options here.

Fascinating stuff. March 29th will be the geopolitical event of the decade.

Isn't there still going to be transportation issues with all the trucks getting stuck heading to the EU? They can't come in with goods if they can't get out in time.

That will absolutely fuck U.K. domestic producers that export goods as well as U.K. trucking companies, but it shouldn't affect imports too much if the U.K. simply refuses to check.

But then as Funky said criminal groups and unscrupulous businesses will exploit it mercilessly.

Edit: derp just understood what you said. Yes, that'll slow the process too - plus after Brexit, IIRC the no-deal mitigation legislation from the EU means that U.K. goods trucking licenses are basically invalid.
 

excowboy

Member
Oct 29, 2017
692
I mean, I don't believe it's going to be anywhere close to Venezuela levels of scarcity, but rural areas could be hit pretty badly if trade becomes an unsolvable mess for the next few months.

At very least it makes sense to stockpile a certain amount food just in case prices skyrocket.

This conversation feels stupid.

I felt fucking insane walking around the supermarket filling my trolley with canned goods and frozen veg. I was honestly waiting for someone to point at me and start laughing. But then you think, we are 50 days away from nuking our economy, so who can reasonably give any assurance as to what will happen?

If everything is fine I will be the first to poke fun at myself for freaking out. If things go badly sideways at least my kids will be fed.

Also, I fucking hate the Conservative party and everything it stands for.
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
May wants two more weeks apparently to change the deal.

tumblr_lqx85siK031qdezf9o1_500.gif
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Most of the people who voted Leave will believe in it until they die. They won't take any blame for it being a disaster, and immigrants and/or the EU will be blamed for the huge drop in everyone-but-the-wealthy's living standards. This won't happen
I'm not british and I'm not an expert but from what I understand there are two big problems at play here:
- there is an unresolved social problem for which nationalism (daydream of a return of the british empire in age when UK is just a midget compared to USA, EU and China) and blaming the outsiders (EU, immigrants) are just vent valves.
- politicians' ineptitude with political parties that care more to survive stupidly following the masses without an inch of foresight (delegating the responsibility about a crucial national matter like the EU membership to the mood of people without thinking about the possibile severe consequences was very very stupid, the lack of pragmatism and constant in fight after the mess they created is appalling).

I think these two big issues aren't present only in UK but in any other EU Country (UK has just a few peculiarities like the strong english nationalism and the Ireland isle division) and won't be resolved/improved for a long time.

However I also think that populist parties have a huge advantage compared to pro EU parties not just because they follow the people discontent but because they also can spout a lot of lies just because they can/they are unchallenged.
The only solution for the latter is a dose of reality (short dose otherwise it could get painful for everybody).
 

Kaim Argonar

Member
Dec 8, 2017
2,260
I felt fucking insane walking around the supermarket filling my trolley with canned goods and frozen veg. I was honestly waiting for someone to point at me and start laughing. But then you think, we are 50 days away from nuking our economy, so who can reasonably give any assurance as to what will happen?

If everything is fine I will be the first to poke fun at myself for freaking out. If things go badly sideways at least my kids will be fed.

Also, I fucking hate the Conservative party and everything it stands for.

If everything is fine you just have to eat what you bought as you would do anyway.
 

Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,694
The deal is not changing. That is set in stone. She knows this. She cannot fight reality.

She's either kicking the can or mincing words/scheming/finding a way to pass her deal/revoking A50.

Good luck with either.
 

Timmm

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,885
Manchester, UK
I'm not british and I'm not an expert but from what I understand there are two big problems at play here:
- there is an unresolved social problem for which nationalism (daydream of a return of the british empire in age when UK is just a midget compared to USA, EU and China) and blaming the outsiders (EU, immigrants) are just vent valves.
- politicians' ineptitude with political parties that care more to survive stupidly following the masses without an inch of foresight (delegating the responsibility about a crucial national matter like the EU membership to the mood of people without thinking about the possibile severe consequences was very very stupid, the lack of pragmatism and constant in fight after the mess they created is appalling).

I think these two big issues aren't present only in UK but in any other EU Country (UK has just a few peculiarities like the strong english nationalism and the Ireland isle division) and won't be resolved/improved for a long time.

However I also think that populist parties have a huge advantage compared to pro EU parties not just because they follow the people discontent but because they also can spout a lot of lies just because they can/they are unchallenged.
The only solution for the latter is a dose of reality (short dose otherwise it could get painful for everybody).

In principle you are right, but people don't really behave that way in reality.

Brexit is (partly) a response to the suffering people have went through due to the recession in 2008 and then austerity afterwards - people responded to that by blaming the EU and migration. When there is more (and harsher) austerity after Brexit, i dont think people are suddenly going to be self reflective and realise the mistake they made - they will carry on blaming minorities and foreigners.

The problem is going to get a lot worse before it gets better
 

Bleu

Banned
Sep 21, 2018
1,599
Running down the clock so other MPs crumble and push her deal through, delivering Brexit on time.
She's sticking to her word, unfortunately.

the final example of the superior Tory 4D chess strategy that brought you :
- i'll ask for a referendum but as i will end up in a coalition i won't have to do it
- oups i guess i have to do the referendum but people won't be stupid enough to vote leave
- i will ask for an new GE to consolidate my power and show my muscles to the EU.

I don't blame people for stockpiling food, really.
 

GS_Dan

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,966
If anything, this whole mess has made me more aware of how many options there are for frozen, pre-prepped veg. Our local Tesco Extra has everything - pre-cut courgette, onions, lemons, mango...
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
In principle you are right, but people don't really behave that way in reality.

Brexit is (partly) a response to the suffering people have went through due to the recession in 2008 and then austerity afterwards - people responded to that by blaming the EU and migration. When there is more (and harsher) austerity after Brexit, i dont think people are suddenly going to be self reflective and realise the mistake they made - they will carry on blaming minorities and foreigners.

The problem is going to get a lot worse before it gets better
I agree with what you say.
What I'm saying is that, despite all the big issues EU currently has, people forget the big advantages the common market brought since it has pass almost two decades since inception and people takes them for granted.
A (again short) "lesson" will be a reminder and it will help the EU cohesion.
Though as you said it won't really resolve the problems at the origins (slow growth, austerity, crisis of the old established political parties throughout Europe, EU lack of political union to drive economic union).

What I think will happen is either the UK parliament will accept the May deal or there will be a short lived hard brexit with a deal struck between EU and UK a few weeks later.
No european nations (and here I include UK) will get benefit from a hard brexit.
 
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danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
17,078
Sydney
I think May is in legacy preserving mode.

Passing her deal is the only shot she has of not going down in the history books as the worst PM in the modern era, and instead having the honour go to Cameron.

If she passes her deal, she can feed it into her bloody difficult woman image and spin any criticism of it as "the alternative was No Deal".

Of course like pretty much everything she's done she'll probably fuck it up and they'll crash out with No Deal.
 

CampFreddie

A King's Landing
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,950
I think that Parliament's problems are largely due to the fact that "To a hammer, all problems look like a nail".

May has spent the last two years trying to hold her party together, Corbyn's been doing the same for a bit longer, and Cameron/Blair/Brown spent most of their careers trying to hold their parties together and picking their battles based on whether they can win a majority or not.
Keeping the party together is their job, and the job of senior ministers is to keep the leader happy and not get on the bad side of other influential party members.

MPs have absolutely no fucking experience of international trade and actually running a country. That's the job of the civil service.

So when faced by a disaster like no-deal-Brexit, they turn inwards. Brexit is such a huge complicated issue that it seems insurmountable and politicians just fall back on what they know. Improve your position in the party and don't lose the support of your constituents (if you're in a marginal seat). Try to outmanoevre your rivals, both in-party and in the other parties. Let someone else deal with Brexit.

I think we'll get a return of May's deal with minor changes to the political declaration. Fuck knows if it'll pass this time. I suspect not, since MPs won't want to lose face by changing their mind. Labour will see a no-deal by a Tory government as better for their prospects in the next GE than a deal that sees them looking like extremely weak and cowardly losers as they back down and let May win the vote. The SNP will oppose any deal. The LibDems know how badly they got burnt last time they supported a Tory policy, so they'll oppose the deal. The DUP are fucking insane and won't ever back down. The ERG welcome the chaos to get jobs as advisers/owners of investment banks and asset-stripping companies, or they are just concerned that the deal specifically requires the UK to implement planned EU tax-avoidance laws that could reveal links to dodgy companies in the Caymans.
 

Fiocca

Banned
Feb 1, 2019
101
Those of you who thought my post about Russian interference should read this article by an adviser to putin. They're openly mocking us yet people still think it's tin foil hat stuff. Link in the tweet
 

Uzzy

Gabe’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,022
Hull, UK
May's making her statement to Parliament now. Usual holding pattern drivel, nothing has changed.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
Those of you who thought my post about Russian interference should read this article by an adviser to putin. They're openly mocking us yet people still think it's tin foil hat stuff. Link in the tweet


It's one of those things regular people can't do much about either way, I'm not against prosecution for Brits that are involved with illegal stuff, but you can't do much about the gullible unfortunately.
 

Deleted member 862

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,646
Drama. Leader of the SNP called May a liar and apparently that's the worst thing anyone has ever done judging by the reaction.
 
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