BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Oniletter]

In somewhat related news, the BCC (British Chamber of Commerce) cut it's growth forecast to the lowest it's been since the financial crisis. And that's still inside the EU.

At this point, I'd be genuinely disappointed if Barnier won't be able to cattle prod the UK into EEA membership.

 

[Lagamorph]

So, so far we've got:

America - Trump, trade wars, deeply unreliable
India - Will want freedom of movement as part of any trade deal
Australia, Japan - Prioritising trade deals elsewhere

All this freedom we don't know what to do with it.

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You'll be able to put China into the same category as India. Both India and China have wanted easier access to live and work in the UK for their citizens for a long time. It'll definitely be a 'red line' from their side in any trade negotiation.

 

[Zaph]

You'll be able to put China into the same category as India. Both India and China have wanted easier access to live and work in the UK for their citizens for a long time. It'll definitely be a 'red line' from their side in any trade negotiation.

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Anecdotal, but at a conference I attended last year, an APAC investor was speaking and was visibly angry on this subject. He pointed to the Chinese investing billions in the UK and spending a fortune on international school fees for their children, but not even being able to get a tourist visa once a year to visit them (and yet they're big spenders when they do get one).

These guys are very well connected, so no doubt its going to be a huge red line for China. I'd guess, at the very least, China will insist on the UK recognising EU Uniform Schengen Visa's for UK travel - something they've wanted for a long time. The irony of this would be beautiful.

 

[FSP]

Expect there to be a lot of miffed peers in the Lords today and a punt of Grieve's amendment back to the HoC. Other than that no major Brexit events until Wednesday where the government will be forced to panic.

 

[Burai]

Expect there to be a lot of miffed peers in the Lords today and a punt of Grieve's amendment back to the HoC. Other than that no major Brexit events until Wednesday where the government will be forced to panic.

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It'll be interesting to see how PMQs will go this week. The NHS funding fudge has given May three new weapons;

1) Anyone who criticises the governments Brexit policy (or lack thereof) will be accused of not wanting to fund the NHS.
2) May can cite the Brexit bus any time someone says that people didn't vote for a specific outcome from Brexit.
3) May can claim that Labour want to blow the Brexit dividend on customs union membership and will have to raise taxes and increase the deficit to meet their NHS spending pledge.

 

[Uzzy]

The Lords have just voted for the 'meaningful vote' amendment. Bigger majority than last time too.

Showdown is on.

 

[Sammex]

 

[jelly]

The NHS fund increase is odd, yes tax rises are needed, the EU member fee doesn't cover it etc. but surely it only half works out as she said if we hard Brexit. It's just nonsense isn't it. Not that the money would go anywhere but into private pockets at sky high prices.

 

[theaface]

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...u-blocks-talks-to-avert-no-deal-brexit-crisis

The European commission is refusing to agree to any back-channel discussions between UK and EU aviation agencies to avert a crisis in the event of a "no-deal" outcome to Brexit.

Attempts by the aerospace industry to persuade Brussels to start contingency talks to ensure Europe's planes keep flying and the aerospace industry can function effectively have apparently been rebuffed by the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, according to industry sources.

At the strike of midnight in Brussels on 29 March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, UK-made parts for planes will no longer be legally valid and its pilot licences will be defunct in the eyes of international regulators acting under agreements with the bloc.

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More at the link.

Project Fear.

 

[Uzzy]

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...u-blocks-talks-to-avert-no-deal-brexit-crisis

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It's worrying that these organisations feel they have to try to bypass the government negotiators. They're clearly feeling that the government isn't arguing their corner.

 

[Kyougar]

It is the only answer the EU can give, honestly.
how would it look if the EU negotiates with companies instead of the nation.

 

[FliX]

Can you imagine if aviation really stops? Britain really would be an island lost at sea again....

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Wait, what, british pilots wont be able to fly to europe?

 

[Joni]

Wait, what, british pilots wont be able to fly to europe?

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And nations that have collaboration agreements with the EU. British airline companies will also need to be headquartered in Europe, with European nationals owning a 50% stake in the company for their flying rights to be valid.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

lolol

 

[theaface]

It's worrying that these organisations feel they have to try to bypass the government negotiators. They're clearly feeling that the government isn't arguing their corner.

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Aye. The government isn't arguing the corner of the aviation industry, the financial sector, small, medium and large businesses, farmers, deprived areas of the country formerly subsidised by EU funding or the 48% that voted remain. Just got to placate the lunatic fringe of their party, all others be damned.

 

[Lucreto]

Can you imagine if aviation really stops? Britain really would be an island lost at sea again....

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Nah, it would be seen as a good thing by the sun etc

No fly zone, continent cut off from Great Britain.

 

[Uzzy]

Aye. The government isn't arguing the corner of the aviation industry, the financial sector, small, medium and large businesses, farmers, deprived areas of the country formerly subsidised by EU funding or the 48% that voted remain. Just got to placate the lunatic fringe of their party, all others be damned.

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Ignoring the voters I can understand, from a cynical point of view. But businesses have direct lines of communication with politicians, sit down meetings with ministers, lobby groups etc. I've seen a few pieces talking about how businesses have withdrawn from those, despairing that their message isn't getting through or even being acknowledged.

Just another sign of chaos tbh.

 

[theaface]

Ignoring the voters I can understand, from a cynical point of view.

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I mean, I do get that 48% is obviously the minority and the 'will of the people' must be done and all that, as much as I disagree with it. But the fact that the policies of both major parties don't reflect the closeness of the result never ceases to infuriate me. The slim majority for leave coupled with the results at the last GE should be a clear sign that a soft Brexit is the way to go (as the pointless but least-damaging form of Brexit). Yet here we are, the government and the opposition going full steam ahead with the hardest of exits, doing nothing to unite a deeply divided public on the issue. Bah.

 

[Deleted member 31104]

The thing about aviation is the EU can unilaterally mitigate all the effect on it by simply grandfathering in current UK produced parts. All that happens to the EU then is that UK flights to the EU stop (the withdrawal bill actually grandfathers in everything from the UK side so the EU isn't affected). The UK would have to scramble to get it's licenses (for pilots and parts and the CAA) accepted by every other partner in the world. You'd be talking the end of the UK aviation industry because the margins aren't there to accept that level of disruption even in the short term.

In any other world, ADS and the General Aviation Manufacturers Association to Barnier would have been front page news. It's basically a begging letter for the EU to prevent the UK aviation industry being destroyed. Of course it can't help but fall into "Britsplaning" to Barnier why it's a good thing for the EU to kowtow to UK demands in this sector.

 

[peekaboo]

Just now in a speech in Vienna, Barnier has shot down practically every single demand for security cooperation from the UK. Not even the current extradition agreements as that falls within the freedom of movement umbrella which the UK is opposed to.

THINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD!

 

[jelly]

Soft Brexit is the only outcome since the UK has done nothing to prepare for anything else. For all the big talk, it's impossible for anything else to happen because the UK isn't hard Brexit, UK implodes stupid no matter what they say. It will be the most pointless pathetic laughable nothing deal that leaves us worse off, weaker in the EU and the world but at least we didn't totally screw ourselves with a hard Brexit. Everyone will be pissed and complain for eternity.

 

[Funky Papa]

This poll is... woof.

 

[jelly]

So much for the Union.

 

[Deleted member 31104]

So much for the Union.

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There's no such thing, there never has been, it's always been a comfortable English hegemony. No union of equals would ever be constructed in the manner of the UK 'state'

 

[Maledict]

There's no such thing, there never has been, it's always been a comfortable English hegemony. No union of equals would ever be constructed in the manner of the UK 'state'

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To be fair there's a reason for that. A federalised system can't work when a single city (London) has a greater population than Ireland + Scotland + Wales combined. It's the idiocy of Wyoming and California having an equal number of senators times a thousand. England is simply far, far too large a country than the other three.

If you wanted a proper federal system like Germany, we need to split England into self governing regions as well. It's the only way to do it.

 

[PaddingtonDidntDoIt]

Uhm. UK pilots and planes can't fly over EU aerospace?
Extradition won't work for criminals from UK to EU and vice versa?

These seem like pretty fucking big oversights.

 

[WillyGubbins]

Uhm. UK pilots and planes can't fly over EU aerospace?
Extradition won't work for criminals from UK to EU and vice versa?

These seem like pretty fucking big oversights.

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It's almost as if the whole thing hasn't been thought through.

 

[Xando]

Uhm. UK pilots and planes can't fly over EU aerospace?
Extradition won't work for criminals from UK to EU and vice versa?

These seem like pretty fucking big oversights.

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Hardly an oversight since the EU and Airlines have been talking about this for two years now.

Government just doesn't give a fuck.

 

[theaface]

When Project Fear becomes Project Fuuuuuuck.

 

[PaddingtonDidntDoIt]

So much for the Union.

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English people have cor centuries crafted systems that benefit them entirely. There is no reason to assume the Scots, Welsh and Irish ever got a fair deal.

 

[Xando]

Haven't seen anything official yet but apparently UK now expects a deal in december instead of october.

Pushing the deadline to the cliff.

 

[Ac30]

Haven't seen anything official yet but apparently UK now expects a deal in december instead of october.

Pushing the deadline to the cliff.

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On March 28th 2019 they're going to sign whatever the EU gives them at this rate.

 

[tuxfool]

Hardly an oversight since the EU and Airlines have been talking about this for two years now.

Government just doesn't give a fuck.

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This isn't the first time this has been discussed in this thread. It's been a long running worry.

The UK government is so caught up in their hamster wheel, that it can't even afford to look at the bigger picture (even if inclined to do so).

 

[Deleted member 31104]

To be fair there's a reason for that. A federalised system can't work when a single city (London) has a greater population than Ireland + Scotland + Wales combined. It's the idiocy of Wyoming and California having an equal number of senators times a thousand. England is simply far, far too large a country than the other three.

If you wanted a proper federal system like Germany, we need to split England into self governing regions as well. It's the only way to do it.

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And that's why it's ultimately doomed. The English will never go for it (they repeatedly passed up the chance to), and why should they subsume their national identity for it?

 

[theaface]

The UK government is so caught up in their hamster wheel, that it can't even afford to look at the bigger picture (even if inclined to do so).

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I'm sure the transport secretary Chris Grayling will treat it as a priority, just as soon as he's done fixing the rail netw... oh.

 

[Oilvomer]

I am convinced all that will happen is at the death, a massive fudge will be done to say 'both sides agree to continue to negotiate' and we would of left on a technicality but everything will be agreed to carry on as normal, and take roughly 10 years to sort out.

 

[electroshockwave]

To be fair there's a reason for that. A federalised system can't work when a single city (London) has a greater population than Ireland + Scotland + Wales combined. It's the idiocy of Wyoming and California having an equal number of senators times a thousand. England is simply far, far too large a country than the other three.

If you wanted a proper federal system like Germany, we need to split England into self governing regions as well. It's the only way to do it.

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Even if you mean Northern Ireland this is not true.

 

[EarthPainting]

Uhm. UK pilots and planes can't fly over EU aerospace?
Extradition won't work for criminals from UK to EU and vice versa?

These seem like pretty fucking big oversights.

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Yeah, as the others have said, people were already discussing this years ago. It's one of those issues that kept getting sidelined to focus on other parts, and they just never got back around to it because those other parts were never resolved either. I don't even want to think about how many more instances like this there are.

 

[Uzzy]

Uhm. UK pilots and planes can't fly over EU aerospace?
Extradition won't work for criminals from UK to EU and vice versa?

These seem like pretty fucking big oversights.

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I don't think anyone in HMG has thought about what being a 'third country' actually means.

 

[PJV3]

I don't think anyone in HMG has thought about what being a 'third country' actually means.

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A third country with red lines about how the EU works.

 

[jelly]

I am convinced all that will happen is at the death, a massive fudge will be done to say 'both sides agree to continue to negotiate' and we would of left on a technicality but everything will be agreed to carry on as normal, and take roughly 10 years to sort out.

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Yeah, it can't work any other way.

Imagine being a civil servant during Brexit, actually thinking about it more, I bet they are calm about it all because they know a fudge to keep the status quo more or less is the only option so are just going through the motions in the background or it's 'this is fine'.

 

[avaya]

I am convinced all that will happen is at the death, a massive fudge will be done to say 'both sides agree to continue to negotiate' and we would of left on a technicality but everything will be agreed to carry on as normal, and take roughly 10 years to sort out.

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That is what happened when another stupid referendum in Switzerland effectively tried to get them to leave the SM. EU mopped the floor with them, they aren't leaving.

 

[tuxfool]

Dragging out negotiations over years is just going to make people tired of the whole ordeal. Plus time isn't on brexiters' side, a significant portion of them will be dying off.

Meanwhile the UK will keep bleeding from the uncertainty, as businesses will no longer be able to hedge.

 

[Deleted member 31104]

I am convinced all that will happen is at the death, a massive fudge will be done to say 'both sides agree to continue to negotiate' and we would of left on a technicality but everything will be agreed to carry on as normal, and take roughly 10 years to sort out.

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There's no legal framework for a fudge of that length. On the WTO side, there's a limit to transitional deals, on the EU side the transition proposal is already stretching the treaties as it's obviously a mixed competency and as such should go to the national legislatures (or referendum) for approval. Even the transition is on legally shaky ground if the ECJ gets involved.

There's no chance of it clawing on for multiple years. There's a small chance that the Irish backstop could be a vessel to allow that sort of creep but it's not likely.

People go on about the EU always coming to a deal. That's for memberstates where the status quo is the treaty provisions. The UK is leaving the treaties, a new legal framework has to be conjured out of the ether to support the new relationship, the previous legal structures between the EU and the UK will no longer exist by automatic operation of A50 on exit day.

 

[FSP]

Haven't seen anything official yet but apparently UK now expects a deal in december instead of october.

Pushing the deadline to the cliff.

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The EU Parliament via Guy Verhofstadt already briefed repeatedly that this isn't possible - the deal has to be done by September-ish to have enough time for the Parliament to vote on it and the ratification to be voted on in all EU parliaments. If there's no serious progress in June then the government has to get its skates on over the summer.

Tomorrow is going to be an extremely difficult day for Team May, but also Grieve. If Grieve forces through his amendment then Grieve has to hop Davies etc do not resign from cabinet, otherwise he's risking forcing a vote of no confidence. May has to find a compromise or win that confidence vote.

 

[excowboy]

I mean, maybe it should be reasonable to have 'no confidence' in this shower of shit cabinet? Mustn't upset the party though I suppose...

 

[Lagamorph]

I mean, maybe it should be reasonable to have 'no confidence' in this shower of shit cabinet? Mustn't upset the party though I suppose...

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The issue with May losing a No Confidence vote is that David Davis, Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg are likely to make leadership bids. Whilst all that is going on all form of negotiation with the EU come to a complete halt (Though you'd be forgiven for thinking that's exactly the case at the moment) and then there's the risk that what little progress has been made will be completely scrapped because the new leader will pull a Trump and just say "Well I never agreed to that, that was the other guy, so I'm cancelling that"

 

[jelly]

Deep down do you think Davis, Boris and Mogg want Brexit to go through? I feel they want the cake and eat it but if they can't get it then they would rather have the status quo but they've put themselves in a corner.

 

[Goodlifr]

Boris couldn't give a shit, Davis, not sure he really grasps it all.

Mogg though, he'd love it