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FSP

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,644
London, United Kingdom
The argument that "well, the rebels could always just vote the government down" could well win out tomorrow amongst enough of Grieve's gang as to reject his amendment.

It's almost as if lots of Conservatives seem to have severe issues with long-term strategic thought...
 

Uzzy

Gabe’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,093
Hull, UK
The argument that "well, the rebels could always just vote the government down" could well win out tomorrow amongst enough of Grieve's gang as to reject his amendment.

It's almost as if lots of Conservatives seem to have severe issues with long-term strategic thought...

So despite having the numbers last week, then getting explicitly screwed over the compromise deal, the Tory rebels are going to back down.

Guess that's that then.
 

Lagamorph

Wrong About Chicken
Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,355
So despite having the numbers last week, then getting explicitly screwed over the compromise deal, the Tory rebels are going to back down.

Guess that's that then.
Where have you heard that from? I've not seen any reports that rebels are planning to back down tomorrow.
After May double crossed them in the space of 3 hours last time I'd imagine they'll be basically impossible to 'buy off' this time around.
 

Uzzy

Gabe’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,093
Hull, UK
Where have you heard that from? I've not seen any reports that rebels are planning to back down tomorrow.
After May double crossed them in the space of 3 hours last time I'd imagine they'll be basically impossible to 'buy off' this time around.

New Statesman were talking about it. I suppose saying that the Tory rebels as a group are to going to back down is too strong, but I'm thinking that enough are going to that May's tactics will see her through.
 

Linkified

Member
Dec 24, 2017
1,147
So I keep on checking in with this thread from time to time, don't post though:
1)Wasn't it Barnier that said security wasn't up for negotiation - so that's a strange one.
2) MPs thinking that if UK Government said:'we want to stay in the EU' that it would be completed overnight is strange. EU won't let us back in. So we are between a rock and hard place? Yes?
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,687
EU would let us back in. They've been hoping we go that way for some time now (that we come to our senses), but sadly "will of the people" and all that garbage.
 

Lagamorph

Wrong About Chicken
Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,355
The EU have outright said they'd let us just call the whole thing off and carry on as before. The only difference will be the EU agencies that have already left won't come back.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
So I keep on checking in with this thread from time to time, don't post though:
1)Wasn't it Barnier that said security wasn't up for negotiation - so that's a strange one.
2) MPs thinking that if UK Government said:'we want to stay in the EU' that it would be completed overnight is strange. EU won't let us back in. So we are between a rock and hard place? Yes?

Barnier's position is that the EU frameworks allow for stuff like the EAW, if you want out of the frameworks you can't have it. It's the UK's choice to leave the frameworks, so it'll suffer the consequences. For instance Germany's constitution prevents deportation of it's citizens to non EU member states.
 

Tygre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,100
Chesire, UK
2) MPs thinking that if UK Government said:'we want to stay in the EU' that it would be completed overnight is strange. EU won't let us back in. So we are between a rock and hard place? Yes?

We haven't left. There is no mechanism for expelling a Member State from the EU. If the UK wants to stay in the EU, the UK gets to stay in the EU.

This obviously all changes the very instant either the Article 50 period expires, or a withdrawal agreement is reached, as at that point the UK will cease to be a Member State.
 

Uzzy

Gabe’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,093
Hull, UK
So Lord Ashcroft has some new polling out, with lots of fascinating figures on the Irish Border and the pace of negotiations. But it's the polling on the Union that makes for the most depressing reading. Here's the big one.

14-GB14-leave-EU-or-keep-UK-GB14-only-w-logo-768x937.jpg

Nearly 2/3rds of all leavers would prioritise Brexit over the Union, and I can imagine that the figures would be much higher if it were English leave voters only. Alex Massie over on the Spectator summed this up rather well.

And yet the general direction of sentiment is clear. Brexit has become England's white whale. A beast to be pursued at all and any cost and damn the consequences. Naturally, like many dismal causes, this one comes wrapped in a flag and loudly proclaims its love of country and its unfettered belief in a glorious, liberated, future without demonstrating even the slightest awareness of the trouble that comes with this. It is a kind of monomania that, in response to every setback or difficulty, demands a faster, purer, harder Brexit. If in doubt – though the Brexiteers are not over-burdened by that commodity – double-down.

So be it. But may we – at the very least – have a moratorium on patriotic breast-beating and preening from people who do not care very much, or certainly do not care enough, about the future integrity of the country they profess to have liberated?
 

CampFreddie

A King's Landing
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,954
So Lord Ashcroft has some new polling out, with lots of fascinating figures on the Irish Border and the pace of negotiations. But it's the polling on the Union that makes for the most depressing reading. Here's the big one.
Nearly 2/3rds of all leavers would prioritise Brexit over the Union, and I can imagine that the figures would be much higher if it were English leave voters only. Alex Massie over on the Spectator summed this up rather well.

People said that Brexiteers wanted to turn the clock back to the 1970's, but maybe it's 1700 or the 1570's they're really going for. Probably the latter since they don't care about parliamentary power and seem happy for one woman to make all the decisions unopposed.

I've just come back from Europe and the people doing the equivalent of my job over there are completely nonplussed by how we've revealed no plans whatsoever for how to continue our regulatory work post-Brexit. Especially since the EU has now finalised (and is already implementing) its plans to boot the UK out of the shared regulatory procedures.
Everyone expects me to be really busy preparing for Brexit and they are shocked to learn that this is literally 0% of my workload. I'm expecting a last minute panic where anything approved in the EU on March 29th is approved under UK law in a one-page bill passed under Henry VIII powers as we furiously kick those cans down the road.
 

Spuck-

Banned
Nov 7, 2017
996
People said that Brexiteers wanted to turn the clock back to the 1970's, but maybe it's 1700 or the 1570's they're really going for. Probably the latter since they don't care about parliamentary power and seem happy for one woman to make all the decisions unopposed.

I've just come back from Europe and the people doing the equivalent of my job over there are completely nonplussed by how we've revealed no plans whatsoever for how to continue our regulatory work post-Brexit. Especially since the EU has now finalised (and is already implementing) its plans to boot the UK out of the shared regulatory procedures.
Everyone expects me to be really busy preparing for Brexit and they are shocked to learn that this is literally 0% of my workload. I'm expecting a last minute panic where anything approved in the EU on March 29th is approved under UK law in a one-page bill passed under Henry VIII powers as we furiously kick those cans down the road.

People from England really, reallllly tend not to give a fuck about the other members of UK+NI. Like, outside of sporting events most people pretty much don't care that they exist. I get why the Scots want independence (even if it might be a terrible idea financially).
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
I do wonder if Scotland will take the next chance. It's still wait and see for a lot of people with Brexit and still love being the UK, Queen and all that. Something needs to break the camels back for it to happen. I think people are firmly stuck in the get on with it Brexit thinking and not actually considering the mess we are in. Wish it would all end quite frankly and go back to complaining about eating Bacon sandwiches.
 
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theaface

theaface

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,149
pg66SAc.gif


The "rebels" will lap that up. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, party before country.
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,687
Well, at least in the case of a no deal brexit, I'll be more eager to move to my the land of my father (ironically away from Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau).
 

FSP

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,644
London, United Kingdom
My read on this is that Grieve got what he wanted. If No Deal happens, the Speaker will allow for amendment to the "neutral terms" motion, unless some serious shenanigans happen.

Ergo the government caved whilst avoiding DD resigning. Win for everyone.
 
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theaface

theaface

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,149
And now Grieve is towing the party line, as expected. Never forget that these so-called rebels are little more than actors, wishing to portray themselves as conscientious and conflicted. Nothing could be further from the truth.

My read on this is that Grieve got what he wanted. If No Deal happens, the Speaker will allow for amendment to the "neutral terms" motion, unless some serious shenanigans happen.

Ergo the government caved whilst avoiding DD resigning. Win for everyone.

I don't see how Grieve gets anything meaningful out of this at all? It doesn't say that the speaker will allow for an amendment, it says that it will be for the speaker to decide if such an amendment is permitted. At best, it just kicks the can further down the road and rather than legislating through actual legislation, puts the decision in the hands of one individual; an individual who some factions of the Tory part are nakedly trying to oust.
 

Arkestry

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,920
London
And now Grieve is towing the party line, as expected. Never forget that these so-called rebels are little more than actors, wishing to portray themselves as conscientious and conflicted. Nothing could be further from the truth.

I feel like it's more craven than that. I think they're constantly being beaten over the head with 'If you vote against government you risk a Corbyn win'. They're more terrified of losing power than the untold damage being done to the country. They do have misgivings, it's just that they're not powerful enough concerns to let them actually act in the country's best interest.
 

Deleted member 31104

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Nov 5, 2017
2,572
And now Grieve is towing the party line, as expected. Never forget that these so-called rebels are little more than actors, wishing to portray themselves as conscientious and conflicted. Nothing could be further from the truth.



I don't see how Grieve gets anything meaningful out of this at all? It doesn't say that the speaker will allow for an amendment, it says that it will be for the speaker to decide if such an amendment is permitted. At best, it just kicks the can further down the road and rather than legislating through actual legislation, puts the decision in the hands of one individual; an individual who some factions of the Tory part are nakedly trying to oust.

The Speaker has said the main reason he's not resigning in the summer is so that he can allow amendments to Brexit legislation.
 
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theaface

theaface

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,149
The Speaker has said the main reason he's not resigning in the summer is so that he can allow amendments to Brexit legislation.

Fair enough. After last week's shenanigans however, I still don't understand why the rebels would swap an iron-clad guarantee now for a shakier assurance later. Well, I mean, I do know why really, but still...
 

FSP

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,644
London, United Kingdom
Fair enough. After last week's shenanigans however, I still don't understand why the rebels would swap an iron-clad guarantee now for a shakier assurance later. Well, I mean, I do know why really, but still...

It isn't a shaky assurance to them. Grieve et al would not have backed down if they didn't have the belief that Bercow would allow the statement to be amendable.
 
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theaface

theaface

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,149
It isn't a shaky assurance to them. Grieve et al would not have backed down if they didn't have the belief that Bercow would allow the statement to be amendable.

My point still stands; whether they're sure about Bercow or not, the desired outcome is a meaningful vote which they could have secured on this very day, not down the line. The government has demonstrated its ability to be deeply underhand and duplicitous, so why open up any scope for wiggle room. Of course, the answer is to give the PM an out and not openly break rank.
 

Uzzy

Gabe’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,093
Hull, UK
Hopefully this means that the Tory rebels will pipe down now, so we can all get on the hard Brexit train together with no whining from craven fools.
 

Oilvomer

Banned for use of an alt-account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
775
Well, job done for May, I think the rebels are fools if they think they won, if it comes to it May will say it it will bring Goverment down if they amend it....it is not like she does not have form on being willing to say whatever she can, truth or not, to get her own way
 

Jackpot

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
1,827
Government wins by 16 votes.

Nothing is gained and even Parliament is desperate to divest themselves of responsibility over the future of the country.
 
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