• Welcome to ResetEra 2.0! Guests should now be able to save their dark or light theme preferences, found on the left sidebar.

BREXIT |OT| A minister always pays his debts

Oct 28, 2017
261
0
Global Finance Needs to Make Brexit Decisions Now (Wallstreet Journal)

I don't get May playing for time. With no withdrawal agreement signed, this is the month many global businesses will have to start their No-Deal-plans. Even with the Deal getting through parliament at a later stage, this will hurt the British economy.
She has never particularly cared, and it is clearly to her personal advantage to delay the vote as much as possible, right now if the vote happens she loses and there is likely no way to recover from that, if she delays something might happen to change that, it is unlikely but still better than certain defeat for her.

Don't see the Tory party opposing this too much either, since if they lose the vote on the deal, a vote of no confidence is potentially not too far behind, and if they lose that vote it means they might very well lose the election, and if they are out of power it is to their interest to delay that, the more they delay the more unlikely a second referendum is due to sheer time constraints, without a second referendum any party that withdraws article 50 is giving a bunch of ammunition to the opposition parties, and the Tory party is uniquely situated to benefit from that.
On the other hand if they don't lose the vote of no confidence they will still have time to implement a second referendum and dump that decision on the "will of the people", giving them cover to go against brexiters.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,013
0
Labour calling a debate with maybe a safe "this sucks amirite" motion at the end is toothless, but not surprising:

If he presents a Confidence motion and loses, he has to then explain to his membership and voters what he intends to do next, and Corbyn et al treat jumping into supporting a referendum as like jumping into a volcano.

So he is sort of hamstrung from actually threatening a Confidence vote despite that being a somewhat logical place to go as losing it puts him in what would appear to be a very bad situation.

My view is that he won't call a Confidence vote. Someone else will, or the government will go bang some other way.
Corbyn has been quite clear. If the government loses a confidence vote he wants a general election. How much more plainly can he put it?

The fact is there aren't the votes to take down the government until the DUP say so. Until that happens a Confidence Vote is not going to pass.
 
Nov 20, 2017
503
0
Corbyn has been quite clear. If the government loses a confidence vote he wants a general election. How much more plainly can he put it?

The fact is there aren't the votes to take down the government until the DUP say so. Until that happens a Confidence Vote is not going to pass.
How is this a plausible excuse for not doing anything meaningful? We can't do anything until the thing that can't happen unless we do something happens? The government is not going to fall without serious outside pressure coming in. It probably won't fall, which means a referendum would need to be called for as soon as it fails. Why can't we have another referendum? Because Corbyn wants Brexit.
 
Oct 25, 2017
281
0
I listened to a full hour of PM questions after her announcement this afternoon. All her questions about a second referendum she said along the lines of “we can’t have it because it would divide the country”.

Yes, because we’re all getting along in unity at the moment 😒
 
Oct 30, 2017
7,177
0
How is this a plausible excuse for not doing anything meaningful? We can't do anything until the thing that can't happen unless we do something happens? The government is not going to fall without serious outside pressure coming in. It probably won't fall, which means a referendum would need to be called for as soon as it fails. Why can't we have another referendum? Because Corbyn wants Brexit.
what 👏 is 👏 the 👏 benefit 👏 of 👏 losing 👏 a 👏 confidence 👏 vote
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,013
0
How is this a plausible excuse for not doing anything meaningful? We can't do anything until the thing that can't happen unless we do something happens? The government is not going to fall without serious outside pressure coming in. It probably won't fall, which means a referendum would need to be called for as soon as it fails. Why can't we have another referendum? Because Corbyn wants Brexit.
Because he can't do anything meaningful at all? Unless the government don't have the backing of the majority of parliament there isn't a lot the opposition can do effectively.

That is how parliament works.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,887
0
My support for Corbyn has waned a little over brexit over the months but ffs, some people are just willing to ignore facts and reality on what exactly he can achieve.

He can't get the votes for no confidence so what else can he do but what he has suggested?

While I do think he is a leaver, his actions have still kept them in the game so far. Some will say "but the Tories are the worst they have ever been and labour should be 20 points ahead of he was stronger on remain", ignoring the fact they are still basically where they were at the general election which was the same support as Labour in their biggest under Blair.

People need to realise we are now like America, a country divided between those who vote based on policy and facts, and those who vote on emotion and fear. To suggest labour could/should be higher then any party ever is ridiculous and ignores all facts and history.
 
Nov 20, 2017
503
0
Absolutely none of you have addressed the idea of a second referendum beyond cowering away in the corner and pretending it's a doom signal that we're best off avoiding. If Corbyn came out tomorrow for a second referendum, that's where the conversation would be heading. He isn't. Why? Because he doesn't want one. Why doesn't he want one? Because he doesn't want to be in the single market or customs union.

It is basically the same as Liam Fox staying in cabinet, they're whittling a stick while the clock ticks down. We don't have time. It's revoke article 50 and second referendum, or May's deal/no deal. You will wake up and find us hard brexited and wonder how it happened.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...corbyn-and-no-confidence-motions-really-about

Now personally I don't really care about the no confidence vote because I don't think he can win one that would bring an election anyway, I want a second referendum (a third one ffs). I do not want us to leave the EU for the sake of keeping Jeremy happy.


Why are so many MPs calling on Jeremy Corbyn to bring forward a motion of no confidence in Theresa May’s leadership? More than 50 Labour MPs – all of them supporters of a second referendum – have called for the Leader of the Opposition to bring a motion of no confidence, joining Vince Cable, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the SNP, and the leaders of the Plaid Cymru and the Green parliamentary groups in urging Corbyn to do the same.
The Labour leadership has declined the opportunity, saying that they aren’t going to call a vote of no confidence until they think they have a passable chance of winning one, which they don’t as it stands. No Conservative MP has even hinted that they might be willing to vote against their government, while the stated position of the DUP is that until the government successfully passes a Brexit deal containing a backstop, they will continue to support the Conservatives in motions of no confidence.
Several high-level Labour officials have spoken as if they have only one shot at a confidence vote, and Jeremy Corbyn appeared to suggest that the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means that Labour can try just once every year. This is not the case: there is no limit to how many times you can try to bring down the government. During the last period of extended minority government, 1974-79, Margaret Thatcher tried to no confidence the government on at least three separate occasions: once following the loss of Jim Callaghan’s parliamentary majority, once during the Winter of Discontent and finally and successfully after the Labour government failed to secure Scottish devolution.

But it is also not really accurate to say that only Jeremy Corbyn can trigger a motion of no confidence in the government: in 1979, the final and successful attempt to force Labour out of office was initiated not by the Conservatives but the SNP. While only Labour, as the official opposition, are guaranteed a time and a vote, in practice, should Ian Blackford (the leader of the SNP in Parliament) or Vince Cable seek one they will get one.
Of course, it does not matter because whatever happens, under whatever circumstances, the Labour Party, the SNP, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and Caroline Lucas will all certainly vote against the Conservatives in any motion of confidence. The reason why one won’t succeed is that the DUP are not, as it stands, inclined to back one.
So what’s going on? It comes down to Labour’s Brexit policy, the fraught compromise hammered out at that party’s conference. Labour’s position is to first attempt to trigger a new election so they can negotiate Brexit and if that fails to support another referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union.
The open question as far as Labour is concerned is where the emphasis is. Does it mean “Look, realistically, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act being what it is, we are never going to get an election this side of a Brexit deal passing, so let’s just support another referendum?”. Does it mean, sincerely, “Let’s try for an election and if not, a second referendum?” or does it mean “Let’s do everything we can to look like we might commit to a second referendum while doing everything we can to avoid it”? Well, the answer is that it depends on who you talk to. All three opinions are represented within Corbyn’s inner circle. Opponents of a second referendum aren’t merely confirmed to Team Corbyn’s committed Brexiteers. Others just believe that another referendum cannot be won and that calling for one would sabotage the party’s hopes of winning the next election.
One thing that the various parliamentary factions all agree on is that the closer we get to 29 March 2019 – the date that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union, whether it has reached a deal or not – everyone else is going to be more inclined to give them what they want. For the Labour leadership, that means that pro-European Conservatives may countenance voting with the Opposition parties in a vote of no confidence. For advocates of a close relationship with the European Union, that means that MPs may vote for an amended political declaration and for a withdrawal agreement that is functionally identical to the one on the table. For Theresa May, that means Parliament belatedly supporting her deal. And for supporters of another referendum, that means supporting a referendum on May’s agreement, with the option to call off the entire Brexit project and stay in the European Union.
So what’s really happening here is a bid accelerate the evolution of Labour’s position – for them to have tried for an election and for the second part of the party’s platform, the support for another referendum, to kick into gear. That’s why people are calling on Corbyn to trigger a confidence vote he cannot win. But the reason why Corbyn is, so far, declining to model his approach to confidence motions on Margaret Thatcher is that he is loathe to give up his flexibility on the Brexit issue.
 
Oct 25, 2017
664
0
Labour is pretty clear in its stance for a second referendum. The opposition cannot introduce legislation in the commons outside very specific circumstances. Either May needs to be compelled to call one or a general election must be called. Labour is pushing for a GE.
 
Nov 20, 2017
503
0
Oct 25, 2017
3,153
0
It also needs to be remembered that Labour put in it's last election manifesto that it was committed to accepting the result of the EU Referendum.

Promoting a people's vote would go against that.
 
Oct 27, 2017
764
0
I don't know why it's so hard to understand Labour's position. They are the opposition, they aren't in government. The only thing that Corbyn has the power to do, is call for a GE, and it would be stupid to call for one as things stand right now.

Labour have made it clear that they will only even remotely consider calling for a 2nd ref, if there is absolutely no possibility (or no point) of a GE.

Things are so fucking bad right now, in terms of how split the country is, that I don't even know if there's any point in JC calling for a GE after the vote (assuming it's on 21st Jan), unless he's going to (and can) extend A.50. That being on the basis that he wont revoke A.50 as he's stated.

I don't see any way out of the situation that doesn't cause some sort of long lasting political damage. Brexit is like playing fucking hot potatoes, and no one wants to hold it right now.