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BREXIT |OT| A minister always pays his debts

Oct 25, 2017
131
I constantly run into complete denial from peeps in the UK about brexit causing any issues at all. People seem to be unable to grasp simple concepts like 'extending article 50 requires unanimous approval from EU member nations' and 'article 50 can only be withdrawn if a majority in parliament vote for it'. To pin the combined chance of either May's deal being accepted or no deal somehow being prevented at 1 in 4... I'm struggling to see how that's an informed or educated opinion vs the same problem we saw in the Brexit betting markets in 2016.
Ok so you should put a lot of money on that belief.

edit: wait you have that wrong, it's the combined chances of May's deal being accepted and the UK leaving before the end of March OR there being no deal and the UK leaving before the end of March OR any other deal and the UK leaving before the end of March. Not no deal being prevented.
 
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plagiarize

Yearning to breathe free
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
5,191
Cape Cod, MA
Ok so you should put a lot of money on that belief.
You know what 'might be worth a flutter' means yes?

I think they're understating how likely it is, so I think odds of winning are better than 1 in 4. I don't think it's impossible that there is a delay. I've explained why I think that. Not sure what else there is to say at this point.
 
Oct 25, 2017
131
You know what 'might be worth a flutter' means yes?

I think they're understating how likely it is, so I think odds of winning are better than 1 in 4. I don't think it's impossible that there is a delay. I've explained why I think that. Not sure what else there is to say at this point.
So you did put money on it? Not just said you should put money on it?
 
Nov 6, 2017
121
I feel the closer we get to Brexit day, the less likely it is that the EU will grant an extension. Maybe if the UK had applied for it in the summer with solid and substantiated reasoning as to why they need more time to prepare, it would have been given easily. If now the UK comes with the same request on the 11th hour (say a month to 2 weeks before), after all we have seen happening, or rather, not seen happening in the last 2 years and especially the last few months, the EU assuredly knows that the additional time will be wasted on more internal UK political quibbling. The EU will barely gain anything, and investments (both monetarly and in recruiting extra manpower) to enable increased customs activity in preparation for Brexit by countries that trade a lot with the UK will be wasted, depending on the lenght of the extension.

Unless something tangible changes within the UK, and I don't consider a new election tangible change considering how divided UK politics is right now, I am sceptical about possible extensions to the 2 year period.
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,959
I can't see the EU granting an extension for any reason beyond "We want to hold a 2nd referendum where remain is one of the options"
And for that the EU will demand a legally binding date for it to be held by.

May can't even ask for one on the grounds of getting the withdrawal agreement through parliament since even if her deal did pass somehow, it's no longer the agreement the EU agreed to since it has that backstop veto.
 
Oct 25, 2017
438
DER SPIEGEL: Your party is holding the nation hostage over its unresolved struggle over Europe. Where has all the reason and willingness to compromise gone?

Davis: You think it's just the Conservative Party? Where is the willingness to compromise in the European Commission or in Germany? It's regrettable that we have come to this point. Our negotiation strategy was initially to try and get a win-win out of this. The EU was determined for it not to be a win on our side. Indeed, Mrs. Merkel, I think, said in terms Britain cannot be seen to gain from this.

Source
Looks like we germans are the baddies again so sorry for ruining your brexit i guess.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,999
Chesire, UK
Since we can unilaterally revoke, there's no reason for the EU to ever grant us an extension.

If we need more time to sort our own shit out, well, that's our problem, not there's.

Edit: Fuck David Davis

Edit Edit: Latest numbers on the Meaningful Vote:
 
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Oct 27, 2017
1,080
Just watched Brexit an Uncivil War, and fucking hell...

It lead me to look into AggregateIQ, which in turn lead to Cambridge Analytica and Facebook etc. I'd heard the basics before, but never in this much detail.

I'm suprised that this hasn't lead to a 2nd ref.

Edit: and police investigation into Leave, has stalled ? Wtf.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
1,592
Today, in scaremongering people to vote for something that they don't want: Blocking Brexit could incite far-right extremism (headline taken from my BBC homepage, for some reason it's not the headline of the article itself and that specific quote isn't in the article).

Blocking Brexit could lead to a surge in far-right extremism in the UK, the transport secretary has said.

Chris Grayling told the Daily Mail that failing to leave the EU would cause the 17 million people who voted for Brexit to feel "cheated".

This could end centuries of "moderate" politics in the UK, he said, as he urged his colleagues to back Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal.
Pretty much everything so far has proven that they're barely able to mobilise, let alone in significant numbers but they need to keep that threat at the front of people's minds.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,159
I don’t think there’s any option that won’t lead to some level of protest, unfortunately. That’s just how polarised the debate has become. But what you have to remember is that many of those who warn about far right protests in the event of Brexit being “thwarted” seem not to think the shortages in the event of a no deal Brexit will cause any unrest worthy of warning.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,081
Just watched Brexit an Uncivil War, and fucking hell...

It lead me to look into AggregateIQ, which in turn lead to Cambridge Analytica and Facebook etc. I'd heard the basics before, but never in this much detail.

I'm suprised that this hasn't lead to a 2nd ref.

Edit: and police investigation into Leave, has stalled ? Wtf.
And te official reason given for that was that its 'politically sensitive.

Such utter bullshit.
 
Nov 3, 2017
2,815
protests are coming either way.

If Brexit goes through and it is a shitshow, leavers and remainers will be protesting, possibly violently.
If Brexit gets canceled, leavers will be protesting... as they did before, barely noticeable. Those are elderly and old boomers, their first and foremost goal is a good life (on the back of others) That's what conservatism is about, holding up the status quo. If they can't relive their youth, they always fall back to the cushioned life without any changes.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,042
Today, in scaremongering people to vote for something that they don't want: Blocking Brexit could incite far-right extremism (headline taken from my BBC homepage, for some reason it's not the headline of the article itself and that specific quote isn't in the article).


Pretty much everything so far has proven that they're barely able to mobilise, let alone in significant numbers but they need to keep that threat at the front of people's minds.
Grayling and others arguing for appeasement sure is something.
 
Oct 25, 2017
697
Even if he weren't being disnhonest, do we really think the Japanese, with plentiful supply of "wagyu" are going to want to import any of our beef? And they don't eat lamb over there either. Might as well do a deal with the Saudi's to supply sand and pork.
I understand the sentiment but trust me, Japan does NOT have ample supply of Wagyu and a lot of it is exported. Japan imports most of their 'consumer' beef from Australia, and Wagyu is a strictly 'premium' export product. Japan's farming strategy is largely informed by the fact it's a very mountainous country that isn't suited to livestock and large scale farming so have instead pivoted to making smaller quantities of premium produce which they aggressively market and export and use the profit to import day to day food. The EU trade deal is a massive win for Japan for this reason! (though it took them a while to convince farmers of this fact)

Australia is much more competitive in this sector due to distance though. Not sure how this will work out for British beef, because we don't do that much premium beef and while for higher margin exports shipping makes sense, for lower margin exports like 'consumer' grade food it doesn't.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,318
Tory good old boys cannot wait for all the "emergency" brexit spending to begin with contracts that won't fully be accounted for for decades to come.
 
Oct 25, 2017
697
No, I mean, are there any big demonstrations going on, or are they just sitting in their chair at home yelling at the TV?
Just the usual yer da protesters. AKA groups of about 5 at a time in public spaces. There were groups of them protesting the Gregg's Vegan Sausage Roll too. This is how current the year is.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,081
Just the usual yer da protesters. AKA groups of about 5 at a time in public spaces. There were groups of them protesting the Gregg's Vegan Sausage Roll too. This is how current the year is.
Yet the way the media was covering them you would think they matched the 700k that protested against brexit a while back.
 

Git

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,291
Hearing good things about the new host on QT, seems she actually makes the Tories answer questions which is a massive step up.

Anyway, here is a slow motion car crash for you.
Bruce is a legend. James Cleverly is the Tory with the least convincing name.

loved owen jones on this week, I don't care what angry people on the internet say, he's a good lad
He was great. He's bang on re: The Spectator. Imagine sticking up for Portillo or Andrew fucking Neil.

Not aimed at you dude. Owen Jones being extreme left is the problem. Extremes on both side have created this shitstorm.
No it isn't. This 'far left' false equivalency is getting some traction.
 
Oct 26, 2017
685
Neil Warnock gives his opinion: https://www.skysports.com/football/...er-neil-warnock-launches-into-pro-brexit-rant

"I think once the country knows what they're doing and we get an agreement and move on, I think it will be straightforward [to sign players].

"But I don't know why politicians don't do what the country wanted if I'm honest. They had a referendum and now we see politicians and everyone else trying to put their foot in it.

"Why did we have a referendum in the first bloody place? I can't wait to get out if I'm honest. I think we'll be far better out of the bloody thing. In every aspect. To hell with the rest of the world. Football-wise as well."
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,381
The Ocean
Neil Warnock gives his opinion: https://www.skysports.com/football/...er-neil-warnock-launches-into-pro-brexit-rant

"I think once the country knows what they're doing and we get an agreement and move on, I think it will be straightforward [to sign players].

"But I don't know why politicians don't do what the country wanted if I'm honest. They had a referendum and now we see politicians and everyone else trying to put their foot in it.

"Why did we have a referendum in the first bloody place? I can't wait to get out if I'm honest. I think we'll be far better out of the bloody thing. In every aspect. To hell with the rest of the world. Football-wise as well."
What a bitter fuck. Sounds like he wants his little island to have only English players. Without international talent, British football would turn pub league in no time.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,563
Neil Warnock gives his opinion: https://www.skysports.com/football/...er-neil-warnock-launches-into-pro-brexit-rant

"I think once the country knows what they're doing and we get an agreement and move on, I think it will be straightforward [to sign players].

"But I don't know why politicians don't do what the country wanted if I'm honest. They had a referendum and now we see politicians and everyone else trying to put their foot in it.

"Why did we have a referendum in the first bloody place? I can't wait to get out if I'm honest. I think we'll be far better out of the bloody thing. In every aspect. To hell with the rest of the world. Football-wise as well."
Wasn't he bitching about Wolves' Portuguese manager not acting like a proper civilized Englishman last season in the Championship? Hmm.