BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

CampFreddie · Feb 8, 2019

I think there are a few reasons for Tusk saying that Corbyn's plan is sensible:

1) He is genuinely glad that Corbyn is being more realistic (just don't mention free movement!)
2) A Norway Plus* deal is something he would want
3) It makes the EU seem like they are willing to negotiate and paints May as the one who is 'blocking' Brexit negotiations
4) He knows this is a live grenade tossed into the ranks of the Tory party, but has realised that being polite and respectful of internal UK politics just means May will politely do nothing until March 29th.

* I really dislike the Norway Plus terminology, since it means something completely different to Norway's relationship. When people originally talked about a Norway deal, they meant membership of EFTA - but it doesn't seem to be used that way anymore. People now use Norway or Norway Plus as shorthand for Customs Union and Single Market - which is bollocks.
Norway is NOT in the customs union, while being in a customs union is Corbyn/Labour's priority and a critical reason for the Irish backstop. They have border posts with Sweden. Geography means there are few roads connecting Norway and Sweden despite the long border (Ireland has many more road-crossing points)
Norway is in EFTA, and we will never (be allowed to) join EFTA.
Norway not only has freedom of movement, but is also in Schengen.

I think the only reason people use "Norway Plus" terminology is because they are afraid to say what they really want and just want to imply a softer Brexit. "Norway Plus" allows you to avoid any counterarguments with "well of course the plus [means/doesn't mean] we [will/won't] be in a [customs union/EFTA/schengen/backstop/included in EU-3rd party trade deals/able to make our own independent trade deals/something about fishing rights/something about north sea oil].

Funky Papa · Feb 8, 2019

Good article on which regions will be hit the most in the event of No Deal (or probably, even Shitty Deal).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/07/world/europe/brexit-impact-on-european-union.html

I was expecting a bigger impact on Italy and Spain on account of agrifoods, but it looks like the biggest damage will be infliced on manufactures.

I'll be keeping that map close by the time actual trade negotiations start.

Goodlifr · Feb 8, 2019

PJV3 said:
This is one of the few times I can say something in her defence, the EU are only bigging up the Corbyn plan because he is finally dropping the unicorn and rainbows element of having the benefits of membership but not being a member.

I know the tests was just Tory rhetoric fired back at them but it still made a deal impossible.

Isn't Corbyn's plan pretty much what was said in the 2017 manifesto?

Teddy · Feb 8, 2019

Funky Papa said:
Good article on which regions will be hit the most in the event of No Deal (or probably, even Shitty Deal).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/07/world/europe/brexit-impact-on-european-union.html

I was expecting a bigger impact on Italy and Spain on account of agrifoods, but it looks like the biggest damage will be infliced on manufactures.

I'll be keeping that map close by the time actual trade negotiations start.

You see how Germany is only a slightly bit less orange than the UK? Yep, those German car makers are going to force Germany into accepting any demands we make any minute now. They're like lambs to the slaughter.

Kill me now.

Micael · Feb 8, 2019

Funky Papa said:
Good article on which regions will be hit the most in the event of No Deal (or probably, even Shitty Deal).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/07/world/europe/brexit-impact-on-european-union.html

I was expecting a bigger impact on Italy and Spain on account of agrifoods, but it looks like the biggest damage will be infliced on manufactures.

I'll be keeping that map close by the time actual trade negotiations start.

The real important question is, would that map still be that orange if the republic of Ireland joined the united kingdom?
Joking aside I am surprised to see that most of the damage is so contained, if it wasn't for the damage to Ireland this whole thing would be pretty minor for the EU on the economic impact front.

SMD · Feb 8, 2019

PJV3 said:
C'mon, I have to try now and again lol.

Only in the sense that she has been saying Corbyn doesn't have a workable plan either, and the EU were saying the same thing roughly.

In all seriousness, he laid out a negotiating position from the beginning, was frozen out and has been trying to hold the government to task this whole time.

The moment he gets involved, the EU say they can do a deal with his plan, isn't that consistent?

jelly · Feb 8, 2019

Stick this on the front pages.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...6e4b00187b5579f64?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008

Donald Trump is being urged to play hardball with the UK when it negotiates a trade deal.

It says the US Department of Trade asked industry what the president should extract from post-Brexit Britain and the answers from lobbyists for big firms included:

Changing how NHS chiefs buy drugs to suit big US pharmaceutical companies.
Britain scrapping its safety-first approach to safety and food standards.
Law changes that would allow foreign companies to sue the British state.
Removing protections for traditional British products.

More awful wants at the link.

ProstatePuncher · Feb 8, 2019

jelly said:
Stick this on the front pages.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...6e4b00187b5579f64?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008

Donald Trump is being urged to play hardball with the UK when it negotiates a trade deal.

It says the US Department of Trade asked industry what the president should extract from post-Brexit Britain and the answers from lobbyists for big firms included:

Changing how NHS chiefs buy drugs to suit big US pharmaceutical companies.

Britain scrapping its safety-first approach to safety and food standards.

Law changes that would allow foreign companies to sue the British state.

Removing protections for traditional British products.

More awful wants at the link.

It was all about taking back control, obviously. Control that big corps have over the UK and any money generated from it.

Tracygill · Feb 8, 2019

10) Ignore the presence hormones and pus in dairy products

17) More antibiotics in livestock

18) Eliminate UK testing for a parasitic worm in pork

19) Dump law against chlorine-bleached chicken

21) Let fruit and veg be sold with pesticide residue on

Brexit means more yummy food.

WhateverItTakes · Feb 8, 2019

jelly said:
Stick this on the front pages.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...6e4b00187b5579f64?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008

Donald Trump is being urged to play hardball with the UK when it negotiates a trade deal.

It says the US Department of Trade asked industry what the president should extract from post-Brexit Britain and the answers from lobbyists for big firms included:

Changing how NHS chiefs buy drugs to suit big US pharmaceutical companies.

Britain scrapping its safety-first approach to safety and food standards.

Law changes that would allow foreign companies to sue the British state.

Removing protections for traditional British products.

More awful wants at the link.

Just saw that and it's bloody infuriating.

Brexit was by the rich, for the rich.

Flammable D · Feb 8, 2019

You'd really hope a us trade deal like that wouldn't make it through parliament

cabot · Feb 8, 2019

Flammable D said:
You'd really hope a us trade deal like that wouldn't make it through parliament

We'd likely be in full on 'beggars can't be choosers' mode

nopressure · Feb 8, 2019

jelly said:
Stick this on the front pages.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...6e4b00187b5579f64?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008

Donald Trump is being urged to play hardball with the UK when it negotiates a trade deal.

It says the US Department of Trade asked industry what the president should extract from post-Brexit Britain and the answers from lobbyists for big firms included:

Changing how NHS chiefs buy drugs to suit big US pharmaceutical companies.

Britain scrapping its safety-first approach to safety and food standards.

Law changes that would allow foreign companies to sue the British state.

Removing protections for traditional British products.

More awful wants at the link.

Well that's depressing.

Puroresu_kid · Feb 8, 2019

The poll also found that:

The proportion of the public satisfied with Corbyn's performance has dropped to 17% per cent — the lowest figure recorded by any Labour leader apart from Michael Foot.
The proportion dissatisfied with the Labour leader has risen to 72%.
Under half of Labour voters (44%) are happy with him.

When do Labour address the polls?

Deleted member 862 · Feb 8, 2019

call an election then. should be an easy win against Corbyn, right?

see if you can spot the moment election broadcast rules kicked in last time

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1085265505244626944

RyanPrime_ · Feb 8, 2019

Just to add to the Question Time is staged palaver. This guy was an absolute tosspot last night

Number45 · Feb 8, 2019

cabot said:
We'd likely be in full on 'beggars can't be choosers' mode

You'd like to think it would only take a few rebels to scupper any shit like this to make sure that it doesn't happen, but I'm not sure I have faith on our parliament to do the right thing.

Puroresu_kid · Feb 8, 2019

nopressure said:
Well that's depressing.

Frightening

asd202 · Feb 8, 2019

So what the better deal for UK - Norway model or May's Deal? I'm sorry if this is a ignorant question.

SMD · Feb 8, 2019

BUSINESS FIRST APPROACH

SMD · Feb 8, 2019

asd202 said:
So what the better deal for UK - Norway model or May's Deal? I'm sorry if this is a ignorant question.

The country collectively stabbing itself in the groin is a better deal than May's deal.

ManixMiner · Feb 8, 2019

Those polls are brutal for Corbyn but he could he only walk the Brexit tightrope for so long.

Look's like Brexit is tearing Labour apart more than the Conservatives.

Number45 · Feb 8, 2019

asd202 said:
So what the better deal for UK - Norway model or May's Deal? I'm sorry if this is a ignorant question.

May's deal is only being talked about with the occasional positive slant because at the moment the alternative is a catastrophic no deal scenario. A Norway style deal delivers a good amount of the benefits of being in the EU with the added benefit (to everyone else in the EU) of our fuckwitted government not being able to put a spanner in the works at every given opportunity.

Corky · Feb 8, 2019

HigXx said:
Just to add to the Question Time is staged palaver. This guy was an absolute tosspot last night

BBC is fucked

Stop It · Feb 8, 2019

null said:
call an election then. should be an easy win against Corbyn, right?

see if you can spot the moment election broadcast rules kicked in last time

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1085265505244626944

You're mixing up correlation with causation.

The polls changed the moment the Tories election manifesto turned out to be...well, the worst in decades (fox hunting, seriously?) and people stopped caring about UKIP when push comes to shove.

Also Corbyn was still massively popular with Labour voters before and had an energised base to play with. This time he's pissed on his own cornflakes over Brexit and if he thinks he will keep young people's support no matter what he needs to ask Clegg how well that worked out for him after 2010.

Corbynites think he is immune to political realities and the moment an election is called that people will forget about Brexit and he'll ride to victory. If he and Labour commits to Brexit he won't win over the hard brexiteers and young remain voters will never forgive him.

Having a decent policy base isn't worth much when:

1: Brexit blows up most of the stuff Labour want to do and
2: Unite blow up anything else progressive that they don't like, including true member led democracy in the Labour Party.

We're heading towards a No Deal under May. If Labour continue to push a "better deal" then they're in opposition to their members, the vast majority of unions that aren't Unite, most of Labour voters and most importantly their role as opposition to the government.

Blue Lou · Feb 8, 2019

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-po...essor-invites-jacob-rees-mogg-to-naked-debate

Goodlifr · Feb 8, 2019

Stop It said:
You're mixing up correlation with causation.

The polls changed the moment the Tories election manifesto turned out to be...well, the worst in decades (fox hunting, seriously?) and people stopped caring about UKIP when push comes to shove.

You're mixing up correlation with causation

nekkid · Feb 8, 2019

Corky said:
BBC is fucked

Two thoughts here:

- agreed, the BBC should be in a lot of trouble for allowing or at the very least not catching this BS. The fact their QT audience is hand selected makes it even worse.
- regardless of where his script came from, I actually think he had a point about the hypocrisy of the SNP's criticism of the Brexit plan.

Stop It · Feb 8, 2019

Goodlifr said:
You're mixing up correlation with causation

No I'm not.

The mythology that because traditional media have to do what? Show party politicial broadcasting and interview political leaders somehow changed the polling that much is just that, mythology.

Labour done well for 3 key reasons.

1: A better manifesto than the Tories
2: Better messaging on all channels, especially social media, a channel unaffected by "fair coverage" doctrine
3: The collapse of UKIP, which in North East especially went to Labour more than the Tories.

1 won't apply again if the Tories have an ounce of sense and if Labour commits to Brexit. The TSSA (Corbyn loyalists) indicate that opposition to Brexit would cost 10 Northern seats but accepting Brexit would cost 40+ Remain seats.

2 is in serious danger if the people who went out on the streets and social media (Young activists, overwhelmingly pro EU) do not turn up to promote a manifesto they don't believe in.

3 is thankfully still there because UKIP are now a joke.

Garfield · Feb 8, 2019

nekkid said:
Two thoughts here:

- agreed, the BBC should be in a lot of trouble for allowing or at the very least not catching this BS. The fact their QT audience is hand selected makes it even worse.
- regardless of where his script came from, I actually think he had a point about the hypocrisy of the SNP's criticism of the Brexit plan.

TBF to them. I went once and I receive a call a couple of times a year asking if I want to back in the audience.

Not saying this is not deliberate but they had to find Ukip supporters so he may of just been on the mailing list for QT tickets

nekkid · Feb 8, 2019

Garfield said:
TBF to them. I went once and I receive a call a couple of times a year asking if I want to back in the audience.

Not saying this is not deliberate but they had to find Ukip supporters so he may of just been on the mailing list for QT tickets

Or he's the only one willing to have his face shown on TV!

Funky Papa · Feb 8, 2019

I'd like to extend my most sincere congratulations to the UK for finally achieving Spanish and Italian levels of misgovernment.

Stop It · Feb 8, 2019

Garfield said:
TBF to them. I went once and I receive a call a couple of times a year asking if I want to back in the audience.

Not saying this is not deliberate but they had to find Ukip supporters so he may of just been on the mailing list for QT tickets

Either the BBC are evil geniuses or are just a bit stupid letting this go on.

Funky Papa said:
I'd like to extend my most sincere congratulations to the UK for finally achieving Spanish and Italian levels of misgovernment.

So my pizza I ordered from these guys isn't coming?

Batatina · Feb 8, 2019

asd202 said:
So what the better deal for UK - Norway model or May's Deal? I'm sorry if this is a ignorant question.

Economic studies have shown that the closest the UK gets to full membership, the better off it will be. Norway style deal includes freedom of movement, which in turn comes with the other freedoms which are great for exporting and importing making the deal much more attractive. EU citizens also have a positive impact on the UK economy, despite rich people paying for newspaper articles that claim otherwise (so that the poor overlook their tax avoidance). I'm at work so I can't spend a lot of time googling sources, but there were articles going around a few months ago with studies about the economic impact of different scenarios.

Zastava · Feb 8, 2019

As much as I despise the man these days, in fairness to Corbyn and what people who support him here are saying, I think there is a good chance he'd get an approval bump from election season and media fairness rules. He's a born campaigner, is passionate and has some charisma when he's talking about issues that matter to him (passion and charisma notable by its absence whenever he talks about Brexit) and loves to talk about things which people on the street care about. NHS, poverty, bus routes, all that good stuff.

However, I really can't see that bump being anywhere near sufficient to overcome a fucking 55 point deficit. Those are so much worse than what he had last time, that's a really steep mountain to climb even if his Brexit stance wasn't a massive disappointment. That Norway+ letter he wrote a couple days ago was a step in the right direction, but it's so last minute, is so at odds with what he was saying even a week ago, and doesn't erase his utter betrayal of European migrants that pissed me off so much over the immigration bill. If he somehow pulls out a Norway+ soft Brexit out of the bag then it'll be enough for me to vote Labour in the next election instead of Green, but I'm never going to like or respect the man again.

WhateverItTakes · Feb 8, 2019

Zastava said:
As much as I despise the man these days, in fairness to Corbyn and what people who support him here are saying, I think there is a good chance he'd get an approval bump from election season and media fairness rules. He's a born campaigner, is passionate and has some charisma when he's talking about issues that matter to him (passion and charisma notable by its absence whenever he talks about Brexit) and loves to talk about things which people on the street care about. NHS, poverty, bus routes, all that good stuff.

However, I really can't see that bump being anywhere near sufficient to overcome a fucking 55 point deficit. Those are so much worse than what he had last time, that's a really steep mountain to climb even if his Brexit stance wasn't a massive disappointment. That Norway+ letter he wrote a couple days ago was a step in the right direction, but it's so last minute, is so at odds with what he was saying even a week ago, and doesn't erase his utter betrayal of European migrants that pissed me off so much over the immigration bill. If he somehow pulls out a Norway+ soft Brexit out of the bag then it'll be enough for me to vote Labour in the next election instead of Green, but I'm never going to like or respect the man again.

I appreciate your thoughts. The thing I was wondering when I saw that polling was if the goldfish memories of the electorate would have that negative view swing as the situation changed, or if it's gonna be an entrenched thing meaning he's forever lost some of the groups that got him to power.

Problem is there's far to many permutations of everything. I reckon if May's deal eventually gets through it kills him, especially if there are a group of rebels that got it over the line. If Labour manage to have some significant influence on the result, that will lose people who wanted it another way, and that could be another death knell. But if they had an influence, but his 'hands were tied' to another referendum? I think electorally that's the best result.

Deleted member 18857 · Feb 8, 2019

CampFreddie said:
I think the only reason people use "Norway Plus" terminology is because they are afraid to say what they really want and just want to imply a softer Brexit. "Norway Plus" allows you to avoid any counterarguments with "well of course the plus [means/doesn't mean] we [will/won't] be in a [customs union/EFTA/schengen/backstop/included in EU-3rd party trade deals/able to make our own independent trade deals/something about fishing rights/something about north sea oil].

I always felt "Norway+" was just a comfort term because Norway is a reassuring country. They're civilized, they're kinda like an island, they're a monarchy as well, and they're white. Nevermind "Norway+" more often than not means "Norway- Schengen and everything that goes with it".
Like Brexit itself, its definition change according to the person who uses it, but what it should really be called is "Turkey+". Just that "Turkey+" wouldn't be very popular with the gamons.

Bleu · Feb 8, 2019

asd202 said:
So what the better deal for UK - Norway model or May's Deal? I'm sorry if this is a ignorant question.

There is no answer to this question, May's deal is in fact NOT a deal, it's only the Withdrawal Agreement, that is, how do you get out in an orderly non chaotic fashion and things keep working while we discuss the FUTURE relationship AKA the deal. It says nothing of the details of the future relationship (outside of the vague non binding content of the political declaration that goes along with it) as it still has to be negotiated.
The future relationship may end up far better or far worse than a "norway" style deal, whatever your criterias may be.
You cannot get a deal before you are out, because the EU won't discuss that (not allowed), you need to get out first to even start talking about a "deal".

Zafir · Feb 8, 2019

Bleu said:
There is no answer to this question, May's deal is in fact NOT a deal, it's only the Withdrawal Agreement, that is, how do you get out in an orderly non chaotic fashion and things keep working while we discuss the FUTURE relationship AKA the deal. It says nothing of the details of the future relationship (outside of the vague non binding content of the political declaration that goes along with it) as it still has to be negotiated.
The future relationship may end up far better or far worse than a "norway" style deal, whatever your criterias may be.
You cannot get a deal before you are out, because the EU won't discuss that (not allowed), you need to get out first to even start talking about a "deal".

I think the problem for many people is just there's not really much hope that May's deal could turn into something good or better than the Norway deal.

It's hard to have confidence really after what a mess just the withdrawal has been.

Zastava · Feb 8, 2019

Iggy said:
I always felt "Norway+" was just a comfort term because Norway is a reassuring country. They're civilized, they're kinda like an island, they're a monarchy as well, and they're white. Nevermind "Norway+" more often than not means "Norway- Schengen and everything that goes with it".
Like Brexit itself, its definition change according to the person who uses it, but what it should really be called is "Turkey+". Just that "Turkey+" wouldn't be very popular with the gamons.

It's Norway + to soft Brexit types because it's got FOM and in the customs union, unlike Norway. It really is the best possible form of Brexit, and hell, the British government has shown itself to be so utterly untrustworthy I'm actually coming round to it being a better solution than outright remaining. Citizens wouldn't lose their rights, our economy wouldn't tank, and the EU would be better off without our "guidance".

Bleu · Feb 8, 2019

Zafir said:
I think the problem for many people is just there's not really much hope that May's deal could turn into something good or better than the Norway deal.

It's hard to have confidence really after what a mess just the withdrawal has been.

It depends, what are the criterias, if you end with a devastated economy but closed borders and forced expulsion of everything brown, it would probably be described as an excellent deal by a fair part of the brexit electorate. The UK discussion is so poisoned words like good, bad, norway+ or deal don't even have stable meanings.

If the Uk ends up signing the Withdrawal Agreement, i don't see the future negotiation being so ridiculous and stupid on the uk side, because the uk will have his back to the wall and things will get really serious, the uk will have no choice but to work seriously on it because the EU will rip them apart otherwise in a FTA as they would with any third country with the same relative leverage to EU.

PJV3 · Feb 8, 2019

Zastava said:
It's Norway + to soft Brexit types because it's got FOM and in the customs union, unlike Norway. It really is the best possible form of Brexit, and hell, the British government has shown itself to be so utterly untrustworthy I'm actually coming round to it being a better solution than outright remaining. Citizens wouldn't lose their rights, our economy wouldn't tank, and the EU would be better off without our "guidance".

Farage and ukip MEPs would lose their jobs as a bonus.

SMD · Feb 8, 2019

So this is fine

Zastava said:
It's Norway + to soft Brexit types because it's got FOM and in the customs union, unlike Norway. It really is the best possible form of Brexit, and hell, the British government has shown itself to be so utterly untrustworthy I'm actually coming round to it being a better solution than outright remaining. Citizens wouldn't lose their rights, our economy wouldn't tank, and the EU would be better off without our "guidance".

But I thought he was racist and wanted to fuck foreigners off? :P

Zafir · Feb 8, 2019

Bleu said:
It depends, what are the criterias, if you end with a devastated economy but closed borders and forced explusion of everything brown, it would probably be described as an excellent deal by a fair part of the brexit electorate. The UK discussion is so poisoned words like good, bad, norway+ or deal don't even have stable meanings.

I mean it goes without saying that good or bad depends on the person. Good or bad doesn't have a stable meaning anywhere since the scale is subjective, that's really not a Brexit exclusive thing.

I think it's fair to say most people in this thread think a good deal would be some kind of soft brexit, and May has continually ruled out aspects of that for her deal. If she hadn't Corbyn wouldn't have needed to send that letter in the first place.

FliX · Feb 8, 2019

SMD said:
So this is fine

LOL
The DUP must love that...

Dougald · Feb 8, 2019

SMD said:
So this is fine

With a Hard Brexit, the writing is on the wall for British control of Ireland. What better way to round off 800 years of oppression than dumping some Nuclear Waste before it's all over?

Puroresu_kid · Feb 8, 2019

The audience split wasn't balanced last night. Looked like 75% unionists

Infi · Feb 8, 2019

According to the BBC Corbyn wants a deal "that includes a UK say on future EU trade deals" and close ties to the single market. It seems strange to me that the UK would get a say on EU trade deals but I don't know much about how the EEA work. Do Norway and other EEA countries get a say on EU trade deals or is Corbyn hoping for something unique for the UK?

Bleu · Feb 8, 2019

Infi said:
According to the BBC Corbyn wants a deal "that includes a UK say on future EU trade deals" and close ties to the single market. It seems strange to me that the UK would get a say on EU trade deals but I don't know much about how the EEA work. Do Norway and other EEA countries get a say on EU trade deals or is Corbyn hoping for something unique for the UK?

It's not strange, it is totally impossible and unattainable, unicorns and fairies.

Spaghetti · Feb 8, 2019

[insert insipid quote from Brexiters about how we'll have better trade deals outside the EU]

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