BREXIT |OT| A minister always pays his debts

Oct 26, 2017
822
The idea that the Tories are immune to harm is completely illogical. I know why things feel so hopeless right now, but institutions collapse, more so when people running them think they can't.
I'm not sure I believe that either. They always retain the elderly vote no matter what, and depending on the fallout from this could it turn away a lot of people from voting(Corbyn is busy destroying his own support). Tories just get in and stay there by default especially in our faux democracy, two party system.
 
Feb 19, 2018
334
London
Problem is, that clearly doesn't happen. Whether it's the fact that people tend to move towards the right economically as they get older, or that society moves left of their views they have when they are about 25, it doesn't matter. Waiting for old age and death hasn't worked in the past.
I suspect, barring other events, that demographically the Tories are going to take a pounding when enough boomers die off. The "moving right economically" thing only really works if the people getting older become better paid, more financially secure, and become homeowners i.e. have assets they want to protect. The Tories have shafted the young since 2010, with Brexit being the delightful cherry on top of what is already a shitcake with diarrhoea icing that I don't see it happening the same way as it might have done in the past because unless you have the bank of mum and dad to rely on, people under the age of 40 have no opportunity to get on the housing ladder and have been utterly dicked over by anaemic wage growth. Moreover, with climate change becoming an increasingly pressing and important issue to the young, being a right-wing "frack away and damn the torpedoes" party isn't going to do them any favours either.
 
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Dec 17, 2018
586
I'd actually forgotten Cable was LD leader until I saw that survey, haven't really been paying attention.
It could be either these two things: The man is smart and is silently amassing potential voters for the next general election or he's a wet fish and no one really cares about the LD party to look into what they're doing.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,897
I suspect, barring other events, that demographically the Tories are going to take a pounding when enough boomers die off. The "moving right economically" thing only really works if the people getting older become better paid, more financially secure, and become homeowners i.e. have assets they want to protect. The Tories have shafted the young since 2010, with Brexit being the delightful cherry on top of what is already a shitcake with diarrhoea icing that I don't see it happening the same way as it might have done in the past because unless you had the bank of mum and dad to rely on, people under the age of 40 have no opportunity to get on the housing ladder and have been utterly dicked over by anaemic wage growth. Moreover, with climate change becoming an increasingly pressing and important issue to the young, being a right-wing "frack away and damn the torpedoes" party isn't going to do them any favours either.
I hope you’re right!
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,397
I suspect, barring other events, that demographically the Tories are going to take a pounding when enough boomers die off. The "moving right economically" thing only really works if the people getting older become better paid, more financially secure, and become homeowners i.e. have assets they want to protect. The Tories have shafted the young since 2010, with Brexit being the delightful cherry on top of what is already a shitcake with diarrhoea icing that I don't see it happening the same way as it might have done in the past because unless you had the bank of mum and dad to rely on, people under the age of 40 have no opportunity to get on the housing ladder and have been utterly dicked over by anaemic wage growth. Moreover, with climate change becoming an increasingly pressing and important issue to the young, being a right-wing "frack away and damn the torpedoes" party isn't going to do them any favours either.
I think that would only be the case if there wasn't high paid jobs anymore. Housing market is tough but people are still clawing their way onto it, may take a lot longer but still attainable with two solid wages. Considering the amount of people who vote, got mine attitude still in full swing, hatred etc, Tories staying in power seems fairly likely, depressing as that is. What age are boomers, 60-80? You could probably roll people who are 50+ into that sort of doing alright bracket. I wouldn't put it past this country to vote in even worse people if Brexit goes really badly.
 
Feb 19, 2018
334
London
I think that would only be the case if there wasn't high paid jobs anymore. Housing market is tough but people are still clawing their way onto it, may take a lot longer but still attainable with two solid wages. Considering the amount of people who vote, got mine attitude still in full swing, hatred etc, Tories staying in power seems fairly likely, depressing as that is. What age are boomers, 60-80? You could probably roll people who are 50+ into that sort of doing alright bracket. I wouldn't put it past this country to vote in even worse people if Brexit goes really badly.
I mean sure, it's not like there's nobody buying houses anymore, but without family help it's still a lot harder, taking people a lot longer and a stable dual income relationship. That kind of thing doesn't exactly inspire loyalty, and even the centrists/centre right people I know in 30-45 age group think the Tories are fucking garbage these days. They're not going to vote Corbyn (though some have said they would if he was better on Brexit, 5 years of him being better than forever Brexit), but they're not going to vote Tory either.

I don't disagree that this country might vote in even worse people before the under 40s become the dominant group, but if that happens it's going to be a last fuck you from the boomers and gammons, not the people who have come of age or become politically aware underneath this shitshow of a Tory government.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
2,221
Yeah people have been saying that for decades. People become more conservative with age; it may even happen to some ERA members!
As mentioned by others above, that tends to happen because people earn more as they get older, buy houses, have kids and want to save as much as possible so vote against higher taxes etc.

When people aren't earning more, can't buy houses, having less kids etc the chances they follow tradition and vote Conservative drops a lot.

Add in climate change and their days are eventually numbered. Unless of course people decide to go full authoritarian because of the upcoming global disaster incoming.
 
Nov 21, 2017
614
As mentioned by others above, that tends to happen because people earn more as they get older, buy houses, have kids and want to save as much as possible so vote against higher taxes etc.

When people aren't earning more, can't buy houses, having less kids etc the chances they follow tradition and vote Conservative drops a lot.

Add in climate change and their days are eventually numbered. Unless of course people decide to go full authoritarian because of the upcoming global disaster incoming.
I think that what constitutes the Labour and Conservative parties in 5 years time will be fairly different to today largely due to the social forces you describe.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,626
London
As mentioned by others above, that tends to happen because people earn more as they get older, buy houses, have kids and want to save as much as possible so vote against higher taxes etc.

When people aren't earning more, can't buy houses, having less kids etc the chances they follow tradition and vote Conservative drops a lot.

Add in climate change and their days are eventually numbered. Unless of course people decide to go full authoritarian because of the upcoming global disaster incoming.

I've never looked into the statistics, but I have seen it said many times that the turning Conservative as you age thing isn't as clear cut as claimed.

The current crop of older voters are the generation that sold everything off, killed unions etc, but again I've never really looked into it to say one way or the other.
 
Oct 28, 2017
3,073
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ave-another-say-by-end-of-month-says-minister

Theresa May has effectively ruled out Labour’s ideas for a compromise Brexit plan, shutting off another potential route to a deal as business groups warned that with less than 50 days to go the departure process was entering the “emergency zone”.
The prime minister’s formal response to Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal, in a letter to the Labourleader, stressed her objections to keeping the UK in some form of customs union, saying this would prevent the UK making its own trade deals.

But in an apparent renewed bid to win over wavering Labour MPs, May made a concession on environmental and workers’ rights, discounting Corbyn’s idea of automatic alignment with EU standards but suggesting instead a Commons vote every time these change.
The letter comes amid a growing presumption that while May remains officially committed to putting a revised Brexitplan to MPs as soon as possible, in practice this is unlikely to happen before the end of February, if not later.
So what's Corbyn's next move?

Considering his so hot on worker and environment rights being aligned with the EU as well as wanting a custom union surely the only option he has now is to back another referendum.

He doesn't want a no deal brexit and can't back any Tory deal without any of the above so surely he has to just bite the bullet and get behind another referendum.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
3,436
Yeah people have been saying that for decades. People become more conservative with age; it may even happen to some ERA members!
This isn't really true. Data shows (in the US at least) that really only the baby boomers ever did this right shift, and they're the ones pushing the narrative that this was a natural shift instead of a deliberate one.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,054
London
Most working age people didn't vote Conservative so this argument isn't entirely accurate. Conservatives haven't done a great job making a prosperous country that would make people think of shifting economically right. Globally more and more people are seeing that neoliberalism isn't working.
 
Feb 1, 2019
22
Trying to remember the last time a conspiracy theorist was right about anything. Also his “fracture theory” image makes no sense, the guy’s a pot
I'm not into conspiracy theories either but please remember we've had a Russian chemical attack on our soil with hardly any retaliation and as the investigation in the US shows, along with the sudden push of far right groups by online bots, Russia is winning without firing a single shot.
 
Oct 28, 2017
479
Are they winning though? They economy is still absolute dog shit despite them having an absurd amount of natural resources and very rich neighbors that need them, and everyone is on to them right now which will make it harder to do what ever they want to do in the future, they are no more winning anything as I would be if I punched an MMA fighter while he was waiting on a line.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,289
I think that what constitutes the Labour and Conservative parties in 5 years time will be fairly different to today largely due to the social forces you describe.
We're long overdue a party realignment. The consensuses that hold the major parties together have really frayed, first with Labour and Corbyn, and now with both over Brexit. Lots of natural voters of both parties are left wondering whether they reflect their point of view any more.

If I wasn't stuck in the middle of the shitshow I'd describe it as a politically fascinating time.
 
Oct 25, 2017
982
Not sure why people think the Conservative party is due to fracture over brexit. Barring a few MPs who are pretty resigned to being deselected, there isn’t really a split in the Tory party on brexit beyond ‘how batshit do we go?’. The party as a whole is behind brexit in some form or other. Labour has a much larger fundamental split in its base vote than the tories do.
 
Oct 28, 2017
252
I'm not into conspiracy theories either but please remember we've had a Russian chemical attack on our soil with hardly any retaliation and as the investigation in the US shows, along with the sudden push of far right groups by online bots, Russia is winning without firing a single shot.
Don't get me wrong I am wildly anti-Russia and I agree with your overall assessment. But this guy is talking about crippling every facet of a country, which will entail mass civilian casualties. That is an absolute act of war that personally I think would be reasonably met with a nuclear strike, and that's why there's absolutely no way this is going to happen.
 
Oct 25, 2017
668
Not sure why people think the Conservative party is due to fracture over brexit. Barring a few MPs who are pretty resigned to being deselected, there isn’t really a split in the Tory party on brexit beyond ‘how batshit do we go?’. The party as a whole is behind brexit in some form or other. Labour has a much larger fundamental split in its base vote than the tories do.
Agreed. The Tory "split" is important now because the Tories are a minority government. So when the DUP, ERG or Soubry/Grieve factions cause trouble it's a big deal. Mogg and Soubry would just be ignored if May had a 50-MP majority.

In terms of the actual tory party and voter base, it's not a big deal. They could lose a few ERG MPs and hardline voters to UKIP if we get a Norway Brexit and they could lose Soubry/Grieve if they go with no deal.

The Tories are also vulnerable, but not when the alternative is an old socialist like Corbyn or McDonnell. My only worry is that even as Brexit destroys the economy, people will just think, "Well, it would be even worse with Corbyn".
I'm thinking of how Major wan't destroyed by Black Wednesday. He limped on for 5 years of disaster and it took a charistmatic centrist reformer like Blair to convince people that Labour could be trusted with the economy. Even then, Blair had to promise not to change Clarke's government spending budget - which basically the opposite of Corbyn's policy to "End austerity, nationalise stuff, create a huge national infrastructure fund".
Tory sleaze was probably a bigger issue than the economic disaster and the infighting with Eurosceptic "bastards".

I hope things have changed, but who knows. Maybe Tory sleaze will do more damage than Brexit, though I suspect attitudes have moved away from caring about that sort of thing.
 
Feb 19, 2018
334
London
Don't get me wrong I am wildly anti-Russia and I agree with your overall assessment. But this guy is talking about crippling every facet of a country, which will entail mass civilian casualties. That is an absolute act of war that personally I think would be reasonably met with a nuclear strike, and that's why there's absolutely no way this is going to happen.
Yeah this is a bit too crazy. Russia might be run by a bunch of callous, criminal cunts who are capable of doing something like this, but they're still rational actors. Crippling the UK would absolutely start a war, and we're not leaving NATO.

I mean, they will absolutely find a way to keep kicking us while we're down - the zero sum dickheads need others to lose for them to 'win' - but this sort of thing is far too blatant with not enough upside. More likely they'll keep doing what they're already doing: incite and foment existing tensions so we continue to fight among ourselves for years while they laugh it up.
 
Feb 1, 2019
22
Yeah this is a bit too crazy. Russia might be run by a bunch of callous, criminal cunts who are capable of doing something like this, but they're still rational actors. Crippling the UK would absolutely start a war, and we're not leaving NATO.

I mean, they will absolutely find a way to keep kicking us while we're down - the zero sum dickheads need others to lose for them to 'win' - but this sort of thing is far too blatant with not enough upside. More likely they'll keep doing what they're already doing: incite and foment existing tensions so we continue to fight among ourselves for years while they laugh it up.
Not long ago we had the NHS systems go down due to malware so it's not too far fetched. Additionally, the point of hybrid warfare isn't to start a conventional war, it's to create an atmosphere whereby a state damages itself. As we can see it is highly successful so far and if we do end up with no Deal the government will be overstretched dealing with the fallout of it. That would be the perfect opportunity to cause a situation that would cause internal chaos because the usual government emergency response would be ineffective. Yes I agree it is far fetched but it is totally possible.

No deal without that would make us a failed state either way.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,206
The thing is, it is easily scaremongering, but a small scale attack on the UK in those days could already do big damage. By for instance giving a small nudge to the customs system that will already be overloaded that day. And that is not something any country will react on using military.
 
Feb 1, 2019
22
The thing is, it is easily scaremongering, but a small scale attack on the UK in those days could already do big damage. By for instance giving a small nudge to the customs system that will already be overloaded that day. And that is not something any country will react on using military.
Exactly. It doesn't have to be something crazy. Just enough to tip the scales. We've had bloody nerve agents on our soil and done nothing!
 
Oct 26, 2017
763
PERMISSION HEARING GRANTED

We are delighted to announce contact from the Civil Appeals Office, regarding our December appeal submission.

We have been granted a further oral hearing on Thursday 21st February at the Royal Courts of Justice, when we will have the opportunity of presenting our case for leave to appeal.

Normally, these proceedings are limited to a mere 20 minutes, but we have been granted a half-day in court.

The Prime Minister’s decision - to use the referendum results as the basis for leaving the EU - was irrational, given that result was procured by the illegal activities of the Leave campaign.

We look forward to making these points in court once again, and are grateful to be given this opportunity to do so. We remain confident in our strong legal arguments.

Thank you to all those that have supported us throughout this process and that continue to do so. We could not have come this far without you.

Please continue sharing our details with your friends, family and colleagues. Any donations, no matter how large or small, are most gratefully received!

Thank you!

Sue Wilson – Lead Claimant, on behalf of all claimants – UK in EU Challenge
https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/ukineuchallenge/
 
Jun 18, 2018
456
We're long overdue a party realignment. The consensuses that hold the major parties together have really frayed, first with Labour and Corbyn, and now with both over Brexit. Lots of natural voters of both parties are left wondering whether they reflect their point of view any more.
I don't think it's just about re-alignment, it's the need for politics to be able to function at all levels beyond a 1-dimensional scale and dualopology politics.
 
Oct 26, 2017
763
Robert Peston said:
No matter how many times Theresa May reminds us, it is easy to forget that Labour’s manifesto committed it to delivering Brexit.

Equally it is hard to remember that the notorious motion passed by the last Labour conference that opened the door to the party’s possible support for a Brexit referendum - as a last resort - was also a restatement of the party’s pledge to deliver its own vision of how to leave the EU.

So it was rational for the prime minister to respond in good faith to Jeremy Corbyn’s written offer to negotiate Brexit terms that he and his party could support.

And quite apart from the convention that manifesto commitments should be honoured, she will presumably know - since almost everyone else in the UK does - that Corbyn is less attracted to a referendum than he would be to a job offer from Goldman Sachs.

And by way of further evidence, if such were needed, I am told that the original draft of Corbyn’s letter to May, which was written by Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary Starmer, contained reference to the party’s fallback position of a referendum. And this was struck out by Corbyn’s office before the letter was sent.

But none of that means there is a deal to be done between Corbyn and May - because the scale of compromise for both may well be beyond what their parties can wear and bear.

To get Corbyn and Labour on board, May would have to sacrifice some of the putative freedoms - such as the ability to ever diverge from the EU on Labour or environmental rules, or to negotiate free trade deals with non-EU countries - that for many Tory Brexiter MPs represent the whole point of Brexit.

And to get his party on board, Corbyn would have to explain why he would be doing a deal whose effect could be to sustain the Tory government in office till 2022.

But as I have said before, there is a deal to be done between May and Corbyn that would command parliamentary support - it would be a version of what some Remainy MPs have styled Common Market 2.0 - so long as neither mind that their respective parties would fracture as a price of that deal.

The point is that May’s and Corbyn’s visions of a tolerable Brexit are much more aligned than the views of the Brexiter and Remain wings of their own respective parties.

So it is May’s and Corbyn’s resolve to deliver Brexit and damn the consequences for the institutions that have sustained and nurtured them throughout their entire adult lives that will determine how and even whether the UK leaves the EU.

For both, it is all about whether their perception of the national interest trumps party interest.

PS I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”.

Apparently Starmer’s reaction has not been one of unbridled joy.

And even erstwhile Corbyn loyalists are becoming grumpy at what they see as his refusal to follow the revealed will of Labour members and supporters that their should be a referendum.

One said: “the only interest” of Corbyn and his aides is “seeing a Tory Brexit through so they can wash their hands of it”.
https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/
 
Oct 28, 2017
3,073
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/boris-johnson-brexit-uk-radio-4-today-show-latest-news/

Boris Johnson said that the world was watching Britain and “thinking wow” with admiration at its decision to leave the European Union.

With just over six weeks to go until the official leave date, there are concerns among senior MPs that the a deal will not be reached, leaving the British economy at risk of significant disruption.

But in an interview with the BBC’s Today programme, the former foreign secretary insisted that he was still confident that would not happen and that – even if the UK leaves without a deal -“responsible” officials would not allow prices to be hiked.

He also played down concerns that a steep fall in the value of sterling could see food prices soar for Brits and said: “The pound will go where it will.”
What a complete idiot.
 
Feb 19, 2018
334
London
PS I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”.

Apparently Starmer’s reaction has not been one of unbridled joy.

And even erstwhile Corbyn loyalists are becoming grumpy at what they see as his refusal to follow the revealed will of Labour members and supporters that their should be a referendum.

One said: “the only interest” of Corbyn and his aides is “seeing a Tory Brexit through so they can wash their hands of it”
Not the first time Corbyn has "forgotten" key parts of things to completely water them down, the complete and utter cunt.