BREXIT |OT| A minister always pays his debts

Oct 25, 2017
3,626
London
Well, yes but its a bloody risky game of chicken riding a unicycle on a tightrope over a very deep precipice.
Oh I'm not denying how wreckless it is, but I think there would be a major ramping up of no deal preperations within a few weeks if it was true.

They can't all be like Chris Grayling.
:( oh shit
 
Oct 27, 2017
237
We're relying on Remainer Tory 'rebels' to actually find a spine, we're definitely fucked. The ERG are organised which is why No Deal is going to happen and because this country is awful the Tory party will stay together and survive in still running the country.
 
Nov 3, 2017
2,911
Seriously have taken a dislike to Corbyn over brexit. For someone who claims to want to do what's best for the collective his only concern right now is himself.
One should never support or defend the head of a party just because he leads the party you are always voting for.
If the leader is shit, he or she should be ditched, even if there are no immediate "better" candidates.

Schröder killed the SPD in Germany with his center-right policies, hundreds of thousands of voters turned their back on the party and still won't vote for the SPD over a decade later.
The current SPD leadership is trying to kill or change the laws that they, as a party under Schröder, created in the early 2000's, helplessly trying to safe their relevance and place as the second largest party in Germany. Currently, they will be lucky if they are the 3rd largest party in the next 5 years.
 

plagiarize

Yearning to breathe free
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
5,593
Cape Cod, MA
Oh I'm not denying how wreckless it is, but I think there would be a major ramping up of no deal preperations within a few weeks if it was true.

They can't all be like Chris Grayling.
:( oh shit
I don't think we can apply logic to what the government are doing. They're all so invested in magic thinking at this point. You'd think given any possible scenario that they'd be ramping up SOMETHING right now. Like, if it was going to be a delay, you'd think there'd be something visible happening along those lines too.

I think May and a lot of people, find the dangers so hard to even think about, they're just not thinking about them.

People do this stuff all the time when deadlines are approaching, or when they're getting deeper and deeper in debt or what have you.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,755
Schröder killed the SPD in Germany with his center-right policies, hundreds of thousands of voters turned their back on the party and still won't vote for the SPD over a decade later.
The current SPD leadership is trying to kill or change the laws that they, as a party under Schröder, created in the early 2000's, helplessly trying to safe their relevance and place as the second largest party in Germany. Currently, they will be lucky if they are the 3rd largest party in the next 5 years.
The SPD is a different case, though. They have been stuck in the "New Labour" like mindset until very recently. Also Germany's electoral dynamics are different. The new direction (if actually pursued) paired with being in the opposition will get them back long term.
 
Dec 2, 2017
1,370
Do politicians still get egged? Feels like I haven't seen it happen in a while.

Maybe that's why they're being more boneheaded than usual. Put the fear of eggs back into them, I say.
 
Oct 28, 2017
479
I don't think we can apply logic to what the government are doing. They're all so invested in magic thinking at this point. You'd think given any possible scenario that they'd be ramping up SOMETHING right now. Like, if it was going to be a delay, you'd think there'd be something visible happening along those lines too.

I think May and a lot of people, find the dangers so hard to even think about, they're just not thinking about them.

People do this stuff all the time when deadlines are approaching, or when they're getting deeper and deeper in debt or what have you.
This, so much this, as someone looking from the outside the UK makes absolutely no sense what so ever right now, for comparison I totally get what is happening in the US, the GOP is a party made of absolutely crazy people, they have been going there a while, Trump is a crazy person, so you get stupid crazy stuff all the time, it makes sense.
With the UK though, sure David Cameron enjoyed his pork pie a little too much, but he wasn't crazy, Theresa May might be a bit of a 1984 nutter and generally incompetent but she is also not crazy, Jeremy Corbyn is also not crazy, yet the end result so far seems almost like the country is being run by the more extreme crazy elements despite them not actually holding power, worst of all most people in charge seem to be giving very little fucks about the whole thing, it just makes no sense, it is like the country has collectively decided to test trial massive stupidity to see how it goes.
 
Oct 27, 2017
181
Wales
It's always puzzled me that people don't understand what the role of the judiciary is. With regards to the EU those people who moan about sovereignty would have been better off voting for some actual politicians in the euro elections instead of useless sacks of shit that just turn up for their pay.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,170
YouGov are at it again. Not only are the Tories 7pts ahead in their model (and nobody else's) but now they'd totally win a majority.

You'd almost think there was a snap election coming what with all the front page stories and polling 🤔

Luckily there's no major political event that could redefine the entire countty in a few weeks.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,626
London
YouGov are at it again. Not only are the Tories 7pts ahead in their model (and nobody else's) but now they'd totally win a majority.

You'd almost think there was a snap election coming what with all the front page stories and polling 🤔

Luckily there's no major political event that could redefine the entire countty in a few weeks.
If we are looking at the same thing then they only manage a majority on a uniform swing, Labour perform better in marginals and the other parties make some gains as well.
 
Nov 1, 2017
1,166
Labour doesn’t need to even get larger than the Tories. As long as they can get the Tories down to around 290 seats, it means the Tories can’t bribe the DUP to hold a majority and there would be enough seats to form a coalition of chaos between LD, SNP and Labour. Now obviously they would need to agree on a Brexit policy which should be Remain.
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,140
What I think will happen is a piloted 'hard brexit'.
They will let the people taste the bitter pill for a few weeks and then after chaos ensures and people are scared enough they will sign a deal with EU to rejoin.
It would be a win win scenario for both the tories (they could say that they delivered on the brexit referendum and then course correct a wrong decision caused by brexiteers) and EU (which will have an exemplary case for everyone that think leaving EU is a good idea).
 

plagiarize

Yearning to breathe free
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
5,593
Cape Cod, MA
What I think will happen is a piloted 'hard brexit'.
They will let the people taste the bitter pill for a few weeks and then after chaos ensures and people are scared enough they will sign a deal with EU to rejoin.
It would be a win win scenario for both the tories (they could say that they delivered on the brexit referendum and then course correct a wrong decision caused by brexiteers) and EU (which will have an exemplary case for everyone that think leaving EU is a good idea).
Don't they have to wait ten years before reapplying to join?
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,407
Los Angeles
What I think will happen is a piloted 'hard brexit'.
They will let the people taste the bitter pill for a few weeks and then after chaos ensures and people are scared enough they will sign a deal with EU to rejoin.
It would be a win win scenario for both the tories (they could say that they delivered on the brexit referendum and then course correct a wrong decision caused by brexiteers) and EU (which will have an exemplary case for everyone that think leaving EU is a good idea).
That ain’t happening.
 
Nov 10, 2017
1,268
If everything is called country-plus then No Deal should be called North Korea plus.

Technically, the UK meets all criteria for joining. But if this happens, I first want to see the EU to take action against the power of the UK to veto things.
No, there has been some drift. The UK's democratic system, for example, is not up to par anymore. The Lords would have to become an elected chamber.
 
Oct 25, 2017
784
What I think will happen is a piloted 'hard brexit'.
They will let the people taste the bitter pill for a few weeks and then after chaos ensures and people are scared enough they will sign a deal with EU to rejoin.
The EU takes its constitution (the handful of major and dozens of minor treaties ratified by member states) very seriously. The Ascension process is very strict and can't just be fudged around. Any sort of "re-admittance" has to happen before 29th of March.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,134
Germany
What I think will happen is a piloted 'hard brexit'.
They will let the people taste the bitter pill for a few weeks and then after chaos ensures and people are scared enough they will sign a deal with EU to rejoin.
It would be a win win scenario for both the tories (they could say that they delivered on the brexit referendum and then course correct a wrong decision caused by brexiteers) and EU (which will have an exemplary case for everyone that think leaving EU is a good idea).
What is the EU supposed to tell other countries that want to join but have to go through year long evaluations?
 
Oct 30, 2017
9,161
London
The EU takes its constitution (the handful of major and dozens of minor treaties ratified by member states) very seriously. The Ascension process is very strict and can't just be fudged around. Any sort of "re-admittance" has to happen before 29th of March.
I fully believe the U.K. will never rejoin the EU. At most I can see EEA and even that seems unlikely, because free movement is scary for many of you.

What is the EU supposed to tell other countries that want to join but have to go through year long evaluations?
Meh, while I wouldn’t be for allowing them back in instantly they’re an advanced democracy and not a pseudo-oligarchic state like Serbia.
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,446
The stupidest thing about the current predicament is that the UK is at a fingertip's reach from a deal. A crappy deal, but a deal that would still be a rotund improvement over No Breaks Brexit.

The Lehman Brothers analogy is starting to become scarily apt. "We are too big to fail, they'll bend over". "Too many smart people in the room, somebody will figure out something".
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,446
The UK is not exactly a frail old lady skipping at the supermarket line.

Besides that, Brexit has only amplified the distrust from some member states. And newer members would rightly throw a shit fit over it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,626
London
Anyone here not stockpiling food, at least in some fashion?
Not yet, I am thinking of beating my neighbours to death for their tinned goods post brexit. Or I might go to Tesco in a couple of weeks and stock up.

Actually thinking about it seriously, dairy is supposed to be an issue, we don't produce nearly enough and the tarrifs are quite high.
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,446
If you are REALLY serious about it, prioritize canned and freeze dried food. They last forever (much longer than their declared "best before" and even expiration dates) and are obviously shelf-stable.

Also, I cannot believe I'm talking about stockpiling food in a first world nation with no propensity to natural disasters. But here we are. The chances of folks needing to go full prepper are kind of small, but unmanaged No Deal could be so potentially bad that this particular topic is kind of losing its taboo.

After all, it only takes a shortage on a certain product to cause severe disruptions (plural) down the chain.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,626
London
If you are REALLY serious about it, prioritize canned and freeze dried food. They last forever (much longer than their declared "best before" and even expiration dates) and are obviously shelf-stable.

Also, I cannot believe I'm talking about stockpiling food in a first world nation with no propensity to natural disasters. But here we are. The chances of folks needing to go full prepper are kind of small, but unmanaged No Deal could be so potentially bad that this particular topic is kind of losing its taboo.

After all, it only takes a shortage on a certain product to cause severe disruptions (plural) down the chain.
The fact we could be doing the dumbest thing imaginable at the worst time of the year doesn't help, so it really does have the potential to get very bad, very quickly.

But I'm still hoping we avoid that scenario.
 
Oct 28, 2017
252
It says a lot about both Labour and the Lib Dems that they're both so far behind in the polls next to this Tory government, after ten years of austerity and a total fumbling of the Brexit process. Never mind forcing a GE, when are Labour going to get rid of this fucker?
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,446
I mean, I don't believe it's going to be anywhere close to Venezuela levels of scarcity, but rural areas could be hit pretty badly if trade becomes an unsolvable mess for the next few months.

At very least it makes sense to stockpile a certain amount food just in case prices skyrocket.

This conversation feels stupid.
 
Oct 27, 2017
209
Glasgow
Also, I cannot believe I'm talking about stockpiling food in a first world nation with no propensity to natural disasters. But here we are. The chances of folks needing to go full prepper are kind of small, but unmanaged No Deal could be so potentially bad that this particular topic is kind of losing its taboo.

After all, it only takes a shortage on a certain product to cause severe disruptions (plural) down the chain.
Around this time last year in Glasgow, there was some unexpected heavy snow. Within 48 hours it was impossible to find bread or milk and various other things in a supermarket. And that was just a couple of days of bad weather.
 
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Oct 26, 2017
2,140
What is the EU supposed to tell other countries that want to join but have to go through year long evaluations?
Maybe not rejoin but to struck a deal (not very favourable to UK).

If that scenario really happen the gain for the the 'remainers' tories would be that they could say they followed the people mandate to do a brexit but that the consequences were so severe that they had to somewhat put a patch and at the same time they could put the blame on the hardest 'leavers' supporters (both within the Tory party and other parties) by stating they lied to people on the severe pain to the nation brexit would cause.
EU would gain that it would be a strong example of how , despite all the issues, the EU is overall beneficial and it's better to side with it (in May there are the EU parliament elections and that could be used as a weapon against the populist movements).

An hard brexit is a lose-lose proposition for both UK and EU but it could be useful for political means if it is short lived.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
1,230
I'm already stockpiling, but that's mostly because I shop at Costco once a month and it's kind of impossible not to overbuy things, so I wouldn't say I have a lot more food in the house than I do usually. I won't deny I have bought some extra dried and canned goods though.
 
Oct 30, 2017
9,161
London
I mean, I don't believe it's going to be anywhere close to Venezuela levels of scarcity, but rural areas could be hit pretty badly if trade becomes an unsolvable mess for the next few months.

At very least it makes sense to stockpile a certain amount food just in case prices skyrocket.

This conversation feels stupid.
U.K. dropping all tariffs and just not doing import checks will help there no?

It’ll kill domestic producers and be a criminal free for all if they do that though.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,451
Manchester, UK
We started "stockpiling" a couple weeks ago - just stuff like flour, pasta, cereals and tinned food. Live in a flat so freezer space isn't something we have a huge amount of

It will be pretty fucking grim if that ends up being our diet tbh, but at least it's there

What I think will happen is a piloted 'hard brexit'.
They will let the people taste the bitter pill for a few weeks and then after chaos ensures and people are scared enough they will sign a deal with EU to rejoin.
It would be a win win scenario for both the tories (they could say that they delivered on the brexit referendum and then course correct a wrong decision caused by brexiteers) and EU (which will have an exemplary case for everyone that think leaving EU is a good idea).
Most of the people who voted Leave will believe in it until they die. They won't take any blame for it being a disaster, and immigrants and/or the EU will be blamed for the huge drop in everyone-but-the-wealthy's living standards. This won't happen

I fully believe the U.K. will never rejoin the EU. At most I can see EEA and even that seems unlikely, because free movement is scary for many of you.
Yep, once we are out that's it. I can see a future where voters would be willing to take back FoM if/when things get really bad in the UK, but can't see them accepting a deal where the UK doesn't get all the opt-outs the UK had managed to negotiate
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,626
London
U.K. dropping all tariffs and just not doing import checks will help there no?

It’ll kill domestic producers and be a criminal free for all if they do that though.
Isn't there still going to be transportation issues with all the trucks getting stuck heading to the EU? They can't come in with goods if they can't get out in time.
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,446
U.K. dropping all tariffs and just not doing import checks will help there no?

It’ll kill domestic producers and be a criminal free for all if they do that though.
No tariffs would mean that the UK's highly specialized industries would be nuked right away and replaced by EU, American and Chinese imports.

Good news: no food shortages.
Bad news: you just kindly handed out your economy to foreign powers and set yourself with a high potential for health disasters (read: some industrious fuck decides to sell denatured oil as cooking oil, which has happened before). You are now Aliexpress' fiefdom.

The potential ramifications of Blind Brexit are so insane it instantly veers into highly speculative disaster pornography.