BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

ManixMiner · Feb 22, 2019

QT this week was pretty boring. To much focus on TIG. I liked John Barnes description that your regular voter doesn't understand the difficulty in withdrawing from a political/economic club was spot on personally.

Respect to the ladie in the glasses who shat on the Tory guy over failing people with serious health conditions (MS) as a MS suffer I have suffered enough from ESA/PiP I get less money and help and lost my mobility car. I've gone through the Tribunal process 4 times 2 for ESA and 2 for PiP, I managed to overturn those decisions each time but waiting a year without the extra income really hurts and the stress it causes is horrible. Last time I went into a tribunal I nearly had a panic attack during my hearing and even now I get anxiety just thinking about going into another tribunal so god help me next time I think I will snap.

EarthPainting · Feb 22, 2019

Funky Papa said:
I don't recall Barnier being that blunt. I'm wondering if he was told to put some extra pressure/prepare for the worst.

I can't listen to the clip itself, but the quote in the tweet is less blunt. It amounts to "I won't exclude a postponement, but that would require the unanimously backing of the European leaders, and they will ask 'why' and 'how long'." Basically the same thing we've been hearing for a long time now. Extensions will only be explored if they expect something fruitful to come out of it.

PJV3 · Feb 22, 2019

EarthPainting said:
I can't listen to the clip itself, but the quote in the tweet is less blunt. It amounts to "I won't exclude a postponement, but that would require the unanimously backing of the European leaders, and they will ask 'why' and 'how long'." Basically the same thing we've been hearing for a long time now. Extensions will only be explored if they expect something fruitful to come out of it.

There seems to be more anger at the British leaking out recently, everyone knows she's counting down the clock, it must be irritating as fuck to keep up the charade for her.

Fernando Fernandez · Feb 22, 2019

Interesting here. Will there be a majority for it?

Xun · Feb 22, 2019

I'll believe it when I see it.

I still feel we're beyond fucked, unfortunately.

Deleted member 862 · Feb 22, 2019

Fernando Fernandez said:
Interesting here. Will there be a majority for it?

this is the same thing they were talking about in the guardian yesterday.

It definitely feels like this is becoming Labour's preferred position with the amount of talk but would May back it? idk. It gets her deal done but it would probably destroy the Tories.

Goodlifr · Feb 22, 2019

null said:
this is the same thing they were talking about in the guardian yesterday.

It definitely feels like this is becoming Labour's preferred position with the amount of talk but would May back it? idk. It gets her deal done but it would probably destroy the Tories.

Does it matter if May backs it?
Only need a few rebels (assuming Lab + IG + SNP + PC + LD all back it) for it to pass?

CampFreddie · Feb 22, 2019

EarthPainting said:
I can't listen to the clip itself, but the quote in the tweet is less blunt. It amounts to "I won't exclude a postponement, but that would require the unanimously backing of the European leaders, and they will ask 'why' and 'how long'." Basically the same thing we've been hearing for a long time now. Extensions will only be explored if they expect something fruitful to come out of it.

The interview is a lot more direct and with a lot more interruptions and talking over each other than the slow-and-measured tone in the press conference questions that we hear in English. The tone seemed a bit more blunt - but as you say, the message is just the same thing we've heard before.

It's also a good way for me to practice listing to the French subjunctive :)

Funky Papa · Feb 22, 2019

Nobody at the wheel.

Deleted member 862 · Feb 22, 2019

Goodlifr said:
Does it matter if May backs it?
Only need a few rebels (assuming Lab + IG + SNP + PC + LD all back it) for it to pass?

I guess that would work, I think you're right. If it's a clear case for a second vote it would almost certainly pass without the Tory whip (it would be really really close anyway). I can only imagine the carnage if some Labour rebels fuck it up.

Psychotext · Feb 22, 2019

ManixMiner said:
Respect to the ladie in the glasses who shat on the Tory guy over failing people with serious health conditions (MS) as a MS suffer I have suffered enough from ESA/PiP I get less money and help and lost my mobility car. I've gone through the Tribunal process 4 times 2 for ESA and 2 for PiP, I managed to overturn those decisions each time but waiting a year without the extra income really hurts and the stress it causes is horrible. Last time I went into a tribunal I nearly had a panic attack during my hearing and even now I get anxiety just thinking about going into another tribunal so god help me next time I think I will snap.

Sorry to hear that. It's fucking terrible what they do to people. :(

Joni · Feb 22, 2019

It amazes me that with a month left to go the pound still hasn't crashed back down.

Blent · Feb 22, 2019

We really do treat NI like shit, don't we?

cabot · Feb 22, 2019

We treat all parts of the UK like shit.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 22, 2019

Joni said:
It amazes me that with a month left to go the pound still hasn't crashed back down.

I think the sheer uncertainty of the final result is pushing back responses. Like, even if you know it's going to be 'bad', how bad affects the ways in which you either profit from it, or try to mitigate your losses.

PJV3 · Feb 22, 2019

cabot said:
We treat all parts of the UK like shit.

Yeah, don't we have 8/10 of the EU shitzones or something, places like Cornwall that look OK at a surface level but have real problems.

CampFreddie · Feb 22, 2019

It's fine. Cornwall can't be one of the worst places in the EU, if we leave the EU.
"that-guy-tapping-the-side-of-his-head.jpg"

I wonder what the hell is happening to the share prices of companies with a big import/export business. I don't own any individual stocks but I'm surprised the FTSE all-share index hasn't been a lot more volatile.

iapetus · Feb 22, 2019

plagiarize said:
I mean, it's temporary in that at some point it'll turn into something else.

Provided a 'something else' can be found that doesn't conflict with the Good Friday Agreement (or a replacement for the GFA can be agreed). Which is no small task. But until something else can be found, it has to remain in place. You can't guarantee its temporary nature, because you might never be able to find a suitable replacement that doesn't require leprechauns riding unicorns to police the border. You certainly can't give anyone the option to end it unilaterally. That's why it's a backstop. It's the what-happens-if-we-can't-agree-anything-else agreement.

Psychotext · Feb 22, 2019

Man, I'm totally fucking sold on Leprechauns riding Unicorns as a solution.

plagiarize · Feb 22, 2019

iapetus said:
Provided a 'something else' can be found that doesn't conflict with the Good Friday Agreement (or a replacement for the GFA can be agreed). Which is no small task. But until something else can be found, it has to remain in place. You can't guarantee its temporary nature, because you might never be able to find a suitable replacement that doesn't require leprechauns riding unicorns to police the border. You certainly can't give anyone the option to end it unilaterally. That's why it's a backstop. It's the what-happens-if-we-can't-agree-anything-else agreement.

We aren't broadly disagreeing here.

I'm saying at some point things will change. In eleven years the UK may be rejoining the EU. Or like I said before the Tories may have a majority and decide to fuck the GFA and NI. Or NI may leave the union. I'm not just talking about a better solution for keeping the border open.

There's no way the backstop remains in place forever, even though it should remain in place indefinitely until the situation changes. I'm just saying that, given the political turmoil that is sure to follow Brexit (whether the country veers right or left, or whatever I don't know...) the situation is going to change, and not in the far future. Within the next couple of decades for sure.

MrKlaw · Feb 22, 2019

I don't see the problem with calling it temporary, with a definition of what is needed to remove it (automated pie in the sky customs robots, amendment to GFA, whatever). Only thing you can't do is put a date on it, because you don't know when the customs robots will be operational.

Psychotext · Feb 22, 2019

That's already how it's defined though. It was only supposed to exist until the trading agreements were put in place after the withdrawal agreement.

This alternate arrangement shit is alternate arrangement for what was already an alternate arrangement. It's batshit mental.

kadotsu · Feb 22, 2019

Conditional is a way better word than temporary. Temporary gives bad faith actors too much of a win.

FliX · Feb 22, 2019

excowboy said:
I don't think we'd be having Brexit if we had PR. We absolutely need it ASAP as FPTP is the cause of so many unwanted consequences, first and foremost the two party system.

I tend to agree, same in the US. It pains me that it wont change though because the establishment is willfully ignorant and obviously profits from the current system.

plagiarize · Feb 22, 2019

MrKlaw said:
I don't see the problem with calling it temporary, with a definition of what is needed to remove it (automated pie in the sky customs robots, amendment to GFA, whatever). Only thing you can't do is put a date on it, because you don't know when the customs robots will be operational.

Another reason not to put a date on it, is that it isn't effective to put a hard date on something. Look at article 50. Why should we believe that a hard date will have a positive effect?

The UK aren't going to rush to put something better in place before the backstop expires. At least, clearly not the current government. They'll do nothing, or argue with each other until time runs out.

MrKlaw · Feb 22, 2019

wasn't article 50 itself a kind of made up thing that wasn't thought through because what crazy country would actually use it?

I'm surprised that has a hard date on it too actually - you'd think there would be conditions on leaving set and only triggering a final withdrawal phase once that is done. But then also I would have thought you shouldn't be allowed to trigger it unless you also meet a minimum threshold of a reasonable plan to proceed.

plagiarize · Feb 22, 2019

MrKlaw said:
wasn't article 50 itself a kind of made up thing that wasn't thought through because what crazy country would actually use it?

I'm surprised that has a hard date on it too actually - you'd think there would be conditions on leaving set and only triggering a final withdrawal phase once that is done. But then also I would have thought you shouldn't be allowed to trigger it unless you also meet a minimum threshold of a reasonable plan to proceed.

It was a rush job to put *something* in place, but it wasn't really expected anyone would be crazy enough trigger it in that form.

Benjamin1981 · Feb 22, 2019

Article 50 only exists because they needed an exit mechanism. But after this mess is over, watch it be totally rewritten.

Benjamin1981 · Feb 22, 2019

Joni said:
It amazes me that with a month left to go the pound still hasn't crashed back down.

It will crash.

plagiarize · Feb 22, 2019

Benjamin1981 said:
It will crash.

It's going to hit new post referendum lows and go underneath $1.20 too, I'd bet.

Funky Papa · Feb 22, 2019

GDP:EUR parity would fuck up store prices like you couldn't believe.

Xando · Feb 22, 2019

Pretty good FT article on how the EU feels about no deal.

If Britain leaves the EU without a deal next month, Europe's Brexit negotiators will not end talks but reset their clocks to a new cliff-edge date: April 18.
After 20 days of likely disorder at ports, supermarkets and borders, the deadline will be Britain's chance to avoid a more lasting rupture with its biggest trading partner — if it can stomach the price.

By April 18, according to European Commission contingency plans, Britain must confirm whether to make about €7bn of net contributions to the EU's budget for 2019. The first payments, which require House of Commons approval, are scheduled for April 30; EU negotiators say missing them will "ruin" relations.

There will be no overarching UK-EU treaty, nor the soft landing of a full transition, as established by Prime Minister Theresa May's draft withdrawal treaty.
But through "unilateral" arrangements it has already put in place for no-deal, Brussels has set up a series of deadlines and demands — covering areas ranging from fish and money to flying rights — that will inevitably require dialogue with London.
"The Brits will be back to the negotiating table within weeks," said one senior EU figure directly involved in handling Brexit. "We will say, yes, by all means let's discuss the future. First, here is the backstop and the financial settlement."

The EU sees its bargaining power as coming from managing the implementation of rules that can cause huge disruption to trade — such as customs checks or providing authorisations.
The challenge is taking advantage of that leverage that without doing further harm to EU interests.

The EU has particular sway in the area of agricultural trade. UK exports face 100 per cent checks under EU law after Brexit. But, for this point even to be reached, Brussels must first authorise the UK as "competent" to export to the EU — a decision that one senior EU diplomat noted might take a day or "maybe a lot longer", depending on the state of relations.

Much more here
https://www.ft.com/content/738a995a-35ca-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5

Binabik15 · Feb 22, 2019

Yikes. Who wants to bet that the UK would beg in all but name to pay EVERYTHING the EU asks for after a taste of No Deal.

Psychotext · Feb 22, 2019

The scary part is that they'd actually consider it vs doing the sensible thing of cancelling article 50 and going back to the drawing board.

RedSparrows · Feb 22, 2019

I don't underestimate the toxic mix of elite ideological stubborness coupled with populace's 'stoicism' (i.e. actually, stubborness in the face of the incomprehensible, no matter how bad it is materially) as seeing that as a worthy risk. Hell, the triumphalism about 'No Deal' is already showing that.

We supposedly left the peasantry behind in the 18th C. Turns out there are still vestiges of that mentalite...

iapetus · Feb 22, 2019

Binabik15 said:
Yikes. Who wants to bet that the UK would beg in all but name to pay EVERYTHING the EU asks for after a taste of No Deal.

Not me. If we reach that point, it's because the hardcore idiots have seized control of the process, and the plan will be to let things continue to go to shit and blame the EU.

funky · Feb 22, 2019

Hello.

I need to be in Rotterdam during the first week of April and Im just wondering how this no deal bullshit might effect a flight from Dublin since I will need to fly over the Brexit hell scape. I hope flights over British airpsace will be fine? Or does there need to be some deal in place?

PJV3 · Feb 22, 2019

funky said:
Hello.

I need to be in Rotterdam during the first week of April and Im just wondering how this no deal bullshit might effect a flight from Dublin since I will need to fly over the Brexit hell scape. I hope flights over British airpsace will be fine? Or does there need to be some deal in place?

I believe there's lots of little deals that have been done, some temporary. But the last I heard flights should be OK.

FliX · Feb 22, 2019

funky said:
Hello.

I need to be in Rotterdam during the first week of April and Im just wondering how this no deal bullshit might effect a flight from Dublin since I will need to fly over the Brexit hell scape. I hope flights over British airpsace will be fine? Or does there need to be some deal in place?

Worst case scenario an EU-internal flight would go around UK airspace. You should be fine.

Binabik15 · Feb 22, 2019

iapetus said:
Not me. If we reach that point, it's because the hardcore idiots have seized control of the process, and the plan will be to let things continue to go to shit and blame the EU.

May has such a shaky majority, though. Which is bad because it could cause a No Deal by sheer inepitude to get her deal passed. It could allow for a few rebels and not-shitty Labour MPs to seize control and pass "we want to come back" legislation, too, unless I'm super mistaken?

It's a bit hard to predict how Westminster will act, given that my own country has a functioning parliament and stuff 🤐

Theonik · Feb 22, 2019

Joni said:
It amazes me that with a month left to go the pound still hasn't crashed back down.

The markets are betting that Brexit can't happen with May being unable to whip parliament. No deal will be armageddon on the markets.

ManixMiner · Feb 22, 2019

Psychotext said:
Sorry to hear that. It's fucking terrible what they do to people. :(

Yeh it's a very worrying around renewal time and waiting for the big thick brown envelope drop through the letterbox. My POV is that, it must cost a lot for all these reviews and tribunals only for the government to end up paying out those benefits anyway so what's the point.

Psychotext · Feb 22, 2019

I imagine they'll scare a lot of people right out of the process. Fucking cunts.

Mivey · Feb 22, 2019

Benjamin1981 said:
Article 50 only exists because they needed an exit mechanism. But after this mess is over, watch it be totally rewritten.

There is an argument that Brexit proves how stupid and terrible Article 50 in its current form is (especially combined with a country that has zero negotiating and diplomacy skills) . So keeping it as is discourages others from leaving.

Bleu · Feb 22, 2019

Art50 will be rewritten so that at the very least a "once invoked, cannot be revoked" clause is added to avoid the current uk situation.

Deleted member 50969 · Feb 22, 2019

Bleu said:
Art50 will be rewritten so that at the very least a "once invoked, cannot be revoked" clause is added to avoid the current uk situation.

I don't think they'll stop at that, I believe they'll add a clause that either blocks or limits extensions.

Antrax · Feb 23, 2019

The EU will probably want some language to the effect of "Prior to A50 being concluded (and thus a country leaving the Union), a list of contingencies for all important inter-union treaties (as determined by the EU and the leaving nation) must be provided and agreed upon."

Which honestly isn't always possible. Treaties like the GFA are one of those "can't unbake the cake" things. Peoples' lives are really locked in around things like FoM. Can't have a country with a large amount of inter-EU trade potentially going hard border. Unrest around that situation isn't limited to the Irish.

Xando · Feb 23, 2019

Looks like Hunts charm offensive in europe is going well.

JonnyDBrit · Feb 23, 2019

Xando said:
Looks like Hunts charm offensive in europe is going well.

Well, he's got the bolded part down at least.

danowat · Feb 23, 2019

Arrogant? The Brits? Nah, i don't believe it.

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