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BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Thread starter theaface
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Assuming Theresa May does resign eventually and there's no general election called...
...who the fuck could realistically be our next Prime Minister? And is there anyone likely who isn't fucking terrifying to consider being in the job?
...who the fuck could realistically be our next Prime Minister? And is there anyone likely who isn't fucking terrifying to consider being in the job?
Imagine the fucking mess, one of those screaming for no extension will have to get an extension so they can hold a leadership contest.
I'd think you'd get a good handful of candidates that aren't ERG types, but it would take some doing to ensure they won before the Conservative membership was involved (or that the nutters were wiped out before the final round). Depressingly, Theresa May really was one of the better candidates from those that ran last time.
Probably not, but it does make me long for the days of Michael Portillo and Ken Clarke vying for leadership.
I actually never thought I'd be looking back at the politicians of the 90's and early 00's with fondness.
I know what you mean. However, you never know what horrors may be foisted upon us in the next few years, maybe somebody will be installed who makes May look brilliant in retrospect?
I know Article 50 won't be withdrawn but, She's fucked no matter what now. She'll be gone by Friday after she looses MV3. Revoking Article 50 is something I think needs to happen, take your foot of the throttle and apply the brakes because fuck me we need to rethink this whole thing, what a fucking disaster.
That referendum has really fucked us, yes leave won but it gave no mandate for any type of Brexit just to leave, but how? No further referendums to find out a preference for what type of Brexit is acceptable to the public or discussion, nope May concocted her horrible deal on the back of the BS that was thrown during the referendum by Farage, BoJo etc she needs to go.
Realistically: Hunt, Javid, Raab, Gove. Boris is the big one though, he's crazy popular with the membership who'll vote for him, but everyone knows that so they'll try to keep him out of the final 2 candidates who get presented to members.
Boris Johnson is the most popular choice among Tory activists and members. The rest are also extreme brexiters and rightwingers. Theres a reason May has clung on. Parliament hates all the top choices, and no one sane wants the poisoned chalice of Brexit.
Its going to be Jeremy Mc-cunt-face I can already see him licking his lips. But what type of Brexit will he seek?
A hard Brexit won't go through the commons, we know this already a no deal Brexit won't go through, a softer Brexit will but can he back a softer Brexit with the hardcore ERG lot are sat in the Tory benches. I highly doubt it.
Basically we're going to be stuck in extension hell till there is enough support to revoke article 50 or for a PV.
A hard Brexit won't go through the commons, we know this already a no deal Brexit won't go through, a softer Brexit will but can he back a softer Brexit with the hardcore ERG lot are sat in the Tory benches. I highly doubt it.
Basically we're going to be stuck in extension hell till there is enough support to revoke article 50 or for a PV.
EU might swallow a short Brexit delay, but if MEP elections aren't held legally they can't extend it again.
At this point I'm certain the UK will be holding EP elections and I'll be doing my part to vote to try stop UKIP and that is something I hope everybody here is prepared to do.
I mean, I sorta hope you don't, because the UK will just shit on everything in the Council for the next year. What do they care if the whole thing burns down?
It gives you leverage, I would expect any country to do the same if they were in the UK's position.
Internally, I don't think ERG people including JRM are popular? And Boris isn't I think?
Hunt seems to fall upwards but he'd be immensely unpopular with people and may help lose a GE for the tories (I'd like to think at least ;-;).
so /shrug
Yeah, I really really agree with this. I've kinda been really surprised at the lack of astuteness of the EU at times. It almost feels like they don't follow UK politics as closely as you'd expect. Well, there is France who is pushing for maximum harshness, so that is a factor I assume.
I think MPs will move to get Boris out from the final two.
Boris as PM would definitely put the union at risk, he's really hated up here.
Honestly, I could see Gove being the one most consensus comes around. He's always been a leaver, but has been more...honest about the repercussions which may put remainers on his side.
Any remainer who will throw their hat in the ring won't make it by the membership, so I'm ruling Rudd out.
It's not really about that though.
It's about letting MPs know that there's some support out there for it.
In fairness to the EU27, they must be fucking sick of this.
Not just because it's a right pain in the arse for this to try to deal with our schizophrenic country, but a longer delay just extends the potential for uncertainty. This uncertainty is causing problems for EU businesses and industry and I can totally sympathise with them wanting to just get us out with the WA and get on with it.
As we know the Tory membership is big for Brexit, the last poll was something like 80%...they also have a history of choosing someone who is not the Fav.... MP's have allready said they would resign the whip is Boris got the job.... there will be a desperate attempt to only give the membership 2 moderates, that will fail....most political commentators all agree, will have to be a brexiteer and most likely Raab, he is popular in Tory circles
If I was a betting man I would go with Rabb vs Hunt or Javid....Raab to win
Yes, I though she had an outside chance of winning an MV4 at the last minute, but that speech has ensured that parliament cannot support her.
Logical arguments about economic damage don't mean shit to politicians at the best of times, but the only way she'd get the deal through is by calming the language so that people don't vote based on gut feels or moral principles.
By demanding that parliament support her as the sole arbiter of the people's will, she's made sure that MPs will vote against her on moral grounds (whether the moral ethic of parliamentary sovereignty or the playground morals of "If that's your attitude, go fuck yourself").
Oh I am sure they are very sick of dealing with this. I am just a casual observer and I am too.
I know many think like this in the EU but it's not just the U.K. which are giving the EU an headache, many far right parties are tipped to make massive gains this year in EP elections so this problem isn't just confined to the UK this is a Europe wide issue.
Also don't forget that the UK was a very good partner in the EU we were quick to bring legislation that the EP agreed or EU laws in fact we were quicker than Germany or France in that regard, we hardly never used our veto. I know there is image of the U.K. throwing spanner's into the EU engine constantly but really we didn't we were a good partner.
The biggest issue for the U.K. was the anti-competitiveness and closer integration. The U.K. is very competitive Country and much of economy is built around the idea of been competitive so it kinda goes against the U.K. at times.
I could easily see her being that petty and cruel just because her deal got knocked back but whether parliament allows it to go that far, probably not.
If Raab got the job he would be a puppet PM for the worse people. Gove is frighteningly delusional and also has masters, Hunt is an evil wet paper bag who think twice about selling us out. Shit show. If Brexit goes through, we are getting sold out big time to the US etc.
If the EU give an indication they are not willing to have a long delay, MV3/4 will pass, it all comes down to what the EU say tonight...May will be desperate for them to say it is Mays way or the highway....if they say they are open to a long delay as long as parliament agree to form a concensus....May is fucked
I think it's an argument for another time, after the third vote, a very short time though!. It's pretty meaningless if parliament votes her deal down, who knows what will happen after that, it will be nuts.
Who is that younger Tory MP from London who seems to talk reasonable sense at times? With the glasses. I can't remember his name but he gave a smart speech in the Commons last week against No Deal.
EDIT: Sam Gyimah.
EDIT: Sam Gyimah.
He is self serving and only cares about how he looks, heard some interesting stories about him from those who have dealt with him.
She really does persist in with the most futile of tasks. Plus she has a terrible personality in person, she is not going to sway anyone.
I think Macron might fold if the other EU leaders wanted an extension.
However, I think most of the other 27 are fine with Macron taking the bad cop role to Tusk's good cop.
The EU have misjudged us though and seem to think we are Greece and will acquiesce to the deal at the last minute as we see the cliff edge approaching. But I think May's speech has fucked all that. No one is meeting in the middle for a compromise or holding their nose to vote for a shit deal. Not while May and Corbyn are both acting like children.
It's no deal, general election, referendum or revoke (IMO, in that order of probability).
Far right and populist won't hold anywhere close to a majority, and the duopoly of EPP/S&D losing a majority is a good thing.
Yes, you were. I'd much rather you stayed, but it's every country for itself ATM.
First thing he is apparently concerned with when doing events is how it will make him look.
Was coming into a building and just stood there waiting to get another lift instead of getting into one there with the one person he was there to see.
Got on a busy train and used the one free seat next to him to place his suit jacket and made his assistant stand the whole journey.
Was being driven to an event by one of the organisers and then commented on the music in the car 'they really do play some rubbish the radio' only to be told by the driver that it was actually their CD.
Those are what I remember off the top of my head.
Just been stood in line at the coffee machine in a 'spoons in Sunderland behind a couple of gammons, moaning about Mosques and "all the council does for them"
Sunderland really is a shithole
Edit: I should add that they took a fucking age, so I was listening to their tripe for about 10 minutes
Sunderland really is a shithole
Edit: I should add that they took a fucking age, so I was listening to their tripe for about 10 minutes
Well I'm spending five days in Malta. Hope you lads have this sorted by the time I get back.
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