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BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Thread starter theaface
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Brexit really is the only thing keeping the Tories going. Used to be you just heard nothing but "Can't vote for Labour because of the financial crisis!", but 10 years should be enough time to sort that shit out.
Now, they just constantly go on about delivering Brexit and trying to make everyone avoid their awful choices elsewhere, like dicing up the NHS and ruining the social safety net of benefits.
Just a shame that Labour are killing themselves internally and the Lib Dems have made themselves immaterial. There's just nobody to vote for that feels like they can get the job done, at least for the English.
Now, they just constantly go on about delivering Brexit and trying to make everyone avoid their awful choices elsewhere, like dicing up the NHS and ruining the social safety net of benefits.
Just a shame that Labour are killing themselves internally and the Lib Dems have made themselves immaterial. There's just nobody to vote for that feels like they can get the job done, at least for the English.
Well it is a both sides issue, on one side you have all the evidence austerity isn't working, on the other you have this austerity expert saying you guys need to tighten your belts:
So you know what I would go with the austerity expert on this one.
With the defeat of 'Mayism' at the last election, it's rather unclear what if anything the Tories stand for other than Brexit right now. They'll need some time after this is over to come up with a coherent set of policies that actually say something about what they want Britain to be.
Fiona Bruce was fantastic last night on QT she really pushed on MP's to give a straight answer, Emily Thornberrys face was hilarious she really couldn't counter any points without the usual party waffle about the 6 tests lol
Props to the Lid Dem MP at least she could hold her ground.
You can tell he has lot of passion to try and make things better for us. He would get my vote for sure. It's a shame that there are so few MP's like him.
It's such a shame that this stupid subject has divided families. I very rarely bring up politics now as I don't want start another argument. I let thier criticisms of the EU flow over me like water of a ducks back when I'm there. Even though I know I can counter thier points with facts I don't say anything because they are so entrenched with their opinion it makes no difference. It's a difficult situation to be in for sure.
Props to the Lid Dem MP at least she could hold her ground.
You can tell he has lot of passion to try and make things better for us. He would get my vote for sure. It's a shame that there are so few MP's like him.
It's such a shame that this stupid subject has divided families. I very rarely bring up politics now as I don't want start another argument. I let thier criticisms of the EU flow over me like water of a ducks back when I'm there. Even though I know I can counter thier points with facts I don't say anything because they are so entrenched with their opinion it makes no difference. It's a difficult situation to be in for sure.
No, quite the opposite.
We see that you can shit on democracy and still be in power. We see that there are not nearly enough checks in place to kick out bad-faith-actors in the government. We see that you can fail upwards. We see that the boomers are fucking us and we can do nothing against it. We see "fuck-you-got-mine".
What we see is the unraveling of a functioning society, unraveling of Democracy that was built on dreams and good faith and the realization that dreams and good faith can't be upheld if those in power weaponize democracy at it's core.
I don't think it's as bad as that. Brexit and "the will of the people" that comes with it has been treated as a higher form of democracy that is somehow greater than parliament and this has scared a lot of MPs on both sides of the aisle. We don't really do direct democracy and the Brexit vote has shaken Westminster to the core. This has allowed a minority government not acting in good faith to repeatedly break accepted protocol and convention to it's own end whilst MPs have been paralysed to call it out for what it is.
This week we saw MPs and the speaker take back control of parliament. May's bag of excuses don't wash now the deal is on the table and that's why the Tory backbenches are rebelling. May has discharged the will of the people, the fog has lifted and parliament is exerting itself again.
The betting markets are putting the chances of the UK leaving the EU by the end of March at 25%. That's with a deal or without. There's fairly strong belief that there will be some A50 extension/fudge.
Might be worth a flutter. Don't forget the markets are driven by what people expect, more than some secret inside knowledge of this stuff.
Yeah I wasn't trying to say that there's some information that we don't have access to. Just wanted to point out that the expected outcome is a lot different than a lot of you expect, and the market shouldn't be completely ignored, especially if the alternative is one or two individual loudmouths with no actual skin in the game.
Didn't the betting markets greatly overestimate remain's chances back in 2016? Seems like people overestimate how likely the status quo is on this topic, if you ask me.
I mean the betting markets will always either overestimate or underestimate something if you treat the outcome as having been inevitable...given a certain outcome transpires in the end.
They do however represent the combined understanding of a lot of clever people, and if you think they are wrong I think in a way it's incumbent on you to put your money where your mouth is.
There's almost certainly going to be a delay. Even if the deal gets passed next week they're going to need snookers to get all the required legislation through in time, and the Lords has been relatively slow at looking at the statutory instruments: they needed to get through 10 a day, they're roughly managing around 3.
Wikipedia has a specific section on why the betting markets got Brexit so wrong:
I constantly run into complete denial from peeps in the UK about brexit causing any issues at all. People seem to be unable to grasp simple concepts like 'extending article 50 requires unanimous approval from EU member nations' and 'article 50 can only be withdrawn if a majority in parliament vote for it'. To pin the combined chance of either May's deal being accepted or failing to prevent no deal at 1 in 4... I'm struggling to see how that's an informed or educated opinion vs the same problem we saw in the Brexit betting markets in 2016.
Ok so you should put a lot of money on that belief.
edit: wait you have that wrong, it's the combined chances of May's deal being accepted and the UK leaving before the end of March OR there being no deal and the UK leaving before the end of March OR any other deal and the UK leaving before the end of March. Not no deal being prevented.
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You know what 'might be worth a flutter' means yes?
I think they're understating how likely it is, so I think odds of winning are better than 1 in 4. I don't think it's impossible that there is a delay. I've explained why I think that. Not sure what else there is to say at this point.
So you did put money on it? Not just said you should put money on it?
You know what the word 'might' means.
I edited the mistake in the other post.
You also said "a lot of money", a 'flutter' implies betting maybe £5-20 of completely disposable income.
So what you are telling me is that there is no reason why all EU countries wouldn't want to grant an extension.
Joking aside it is going to be fun to see how the rags spin the EU not giving the UK an extension if that comes to pass.
I feel the closer we get to Brexit day, the less likely it is that the EU will grant an extension. Maybe if the UK had applied for it in the summer with solid and substantiated reasoning as to why they need more time to prepare, it would have been given easily. If now the UK comes with the same request on the 11th hour (say a month to 2 weeks before), after all we have seen happening, or rather, not seen happening in the last 2 years and especially the last few months, the EU assuredly knows that the additional time will be wasted on more internal UK political quibbling. The EU will barely gain anything, and investments (both monetarly and in recruiting extra manpower) to enable increased customs activity in preparation for Brexit by countries that trade a lot with the UK will be wasted, depending on the lenght of the extension.
Unless something tangible changes within the UK, and I don't consider a new election tangible change considering how divided UK politics is right now, I am sceptical about possible extensions to the 2 year period.
Unless something tangible changes within the UK, and I don't consider a new election tangible change considering how divided UK politics is right now, I am sceptical about possible extensions to the 2 year period.
I can't see the EU granting an extension for any reason beyond "We want to hold a 2nd referendum where remain is one of the options"
And for that the EU will demand a legally binding date for it to be held by.
May can't even ask for one on the grounds of getting the withdrawal agreement through parliament since even if her deal did pass somehow, it's no longer the agreement the EU agreed to since it has that backstop veto.
And for that the EU will demand a legally binding date for it to be held by.
May can't even ask for one on the grounds of getting the withdrawal agreement through parliament since even if her deal did pass somehow, it's no longer the agreement the EU agreed to since it has that backstop veto.
Looks like we germans are the baddies again so sorry for ruining your brexit i guess.
Since we can unilaterally revoke, there's no reason for the EU to ever grant us an extension.
If we need more time to sort our own shit out, well, that's our problem, not there's.
Edit: Fuck David Davis
Edit Edit: Latest numbers on the Meaningful Vote:
If we need more time to sort our own shit out, well, that's our problem, not there's.
Edit: Fuck David Davis
Edit Edit: Latest numbers on the Meaningful Vote:
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Just watched Brexit an Uncivil War, and fucking hell...
It lead me to look into AggregateIQ, which in turn lead to Cambridge Analytica and Facebook etc. I'd heard the basics before, but never in this much detail.
I'm suprised that this hasn't lead to a 2nd ref.
Edit: and police investigation into Leave, has stalled ? Wtf.
It lead me to look into AggregateIQ, which in turn lead to Cambridge Analytica and Facebook etc. I'd heard the basics before, but never in this much detail.
I'm suprised that this hasn't lead to a 2nd ref.
Edit: and police investigation into Leave, has stalled ? Wtf.
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Today, in scaremongering people to vote for something that they don't want: Blocking Brexit could incite far-right extremism (headline taken from my BBC homepage, for some reason it's not the headline of the article itself and that specific quote isn't in the article).
Pretty much everything so far has proven that they're barely able to mobilise, let alone in significant numbers but they need to keep that threat at the front of people's minds.
I just caught this.
Wow, this guy nailed it. Can I vote for him as PM lol?
I don't think there's any option that won't lead to some level of protest, unfortunately. That's just how polarised the debate has become. But what you have to remember is that many of those who warn about far right protests in the event of Brexit being "thwarted" seem not to think the shortages in the event of a no deal Brexit will cause any unrest worthy of warning.
And te official reason given for that was that its 'politically sensitive.
Such utter bullshit.
protests are coming either way.
If Brexit goes through and it is a shitshow, leavers and remainers will be protesting, possibly violently.
If Brexit gets canceled, leavers will be protesting... as they did before, barely noticeable. Those are elderly and old boomers, their first and foremost goal is a good life (on the back of others) That's what conservatism is about, holding up the status quo. If they can't relive their youth, they always fall back to the cushioned life without any changes.
If Brexit goes through and it is a shitshow, leavers and remainers will be protesting, possibly violently.
If Brexit gets canceled, leavers will be protesting... as they did before, barely noticeable. Those are elderly and old boomers, their first and foremost goal is a good life (on the back of others) That's what conservatism is about, holding up the status quo. If they can't relive their youth, they always fall back to the cushioned life without any changes.
Not a single word about it in two and a half years from Corbyn
This gave me a giggle:
From: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-second-brexit-vote-to-enfranchise-the-young
From: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-second-brexit-vote-to-enfranchise-the-young
Grayling and others arguing for appeasement sure is something.
I understand the sentiment but trust me, Japan does NOT have ample supply of Wagyu and a lot of it is exported. Japan imports most of their 'consumer' beef from Australia, and Wagyu is a strictly 'premium' export product. Japan's farming strategy is largely informed by the fact it's a very mountainous country that isn't suited to livestock and large scale farming so have instead pivoted to making smaller quantities of premium produce which they aggressively market and export and use the profit to import day to day food. The EU trade deal is a massive win for Japan for this reason! (though it took them a while to convince farmers of this fact)
Australia is much more competitive in this sector due to distance though. Not sure how this will work out for British beef, because we don't do that much premium beef and while for higher margin exports shipping makes sense, for lower margin exports like 'consumer' grade food it doesn't.
If you haven't worked it out yet, Brexit is an exercise in grift and shorting the pound.
Owen Jones is a Corbyn Fanboy. He will have smoulders of a country if he lets no deal go ahead
I knew people would balk at it coming from Owen Jones, but it was the poll results I wanted to post and I couldn't figure out an easier way of posting them from my phone since Survation didn't tweet them separately.
It's our usual racists except now they're easier to see at night.
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