BREXIT |OT2.0| A parade of endless victories for Boris Johnson

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Oct 27, 2017
2,856
London
Jesus, the combined percentage of all Brexit parties is utterly terrifying. We need to go out in force on election day to fight back against this. The soft brexit/remain combination is 53%. I heard under D'Hondt proportional representation vote splitting still has negative effects on the affected parties? The left vote being united into 1 party could help here.
 

Binabik15

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,440
UKIP and Brexit party is basically british AFD so that's 29% + 16% conservatives which are basically CSU at this point.

45% for far right nutters.

The CSU isn't in omnishambles (anymore), though. Not sure if that's good or bad. Them running a guy like Weber who growls about being tough on UK for EPP top spot will make this whole sorry affair even more insane.
 

Tygre

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Oct 25, 2017
4,903
Chesire, UK
This is extremely misleading as it's comparing GE vote with EP vote.

The two systems have completely different electoral mechanisms (FPTP vs a form of PR) so obviously people vote differently.

This poll is fucking horrifying. 29% for far right wreckers.
That first poll is horrifying
Although 14% for UKIP is particularly disturbing
Jesus, the combined percentage of all Brexit parties is utterly terrifying.
UKIP are massively down! The pro-Brexit vote is massively down! These poll results are INCREDIBLY GOOD.

Where were you all in 2014 when this shitshow started? 5 years later and NOW you're horrified, terrified and disgusted when this shit is finally getting turned around?

2014 EP results:

UKIP - 26%
Labour - 24%
Tories - 23%
Green - 7%
Lib Dem - 6%

2019 Polling:

Labour - 24% (NC)
Tories - 16% (-7)
BXP - 15% (+15)
UKIP - 14% (-12)
Lib Dem - 8% (+2)
Green - 8% (+1)
CUK - 7% (+7)

That puts pro-Brexit parties down 4, and anti-Brexit parties up 10.
 
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LL_Decitrig

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Oct 27, 2017
10,334
Sunderland
Seen on a litter bin in an affluent part of Sunderland today, handwritten on white paper, an exhortation to withhold Council Tax if the government fails to deliver Brexit. I'm constantly flabbergasted by the political illiteracy of my fellow Mackems.
 

zeknurn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
922
If there was ever an opportunity for the UK to show that they're willing to be a more compromising and better member of the EU this would be it. I've been hoping Brexit would be cancelled but seeing this poll makes me think that a Soft Brexit is probably the best outcome for both sides. If things ever change the UK can rejoin further down the line without their current special status.
 

phisheep

Member
Oct 26, 2017
906
The results of this election, if it is held, are going to be spun every which way - and probably mostly along the lines that May has used, that a vast majority of people voted for pro-Brexit parties (remembering that Labour is still pro-Brexit, though on the softer side).

And there's the additional problem that since both the main parties are so divided internally, and since the election is on the D'Hondt system, you don't know what sort of Labour or Tory you will be getting if you vote for them - whether a leaver or a remainer. How the hell are they going to make the lists up?

I very much hope there will be a further big swing towards the uncompromisingly pro-EU parties once the campaign gets underway. There will be from me at least.
 

Kaitos

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Oct 25, 2017
10,202
Honestly, the polling for the EU Elections has been alllllllll over the place. I would give it a few days, or more.
 

kradical

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Oct 25, 2017
2,036
This is extremely misleading as it's comparing GE vote with EP vote.
It's comparing the 2017 GE to both current voting intentions for Westminster and the European parliament. It's useful to see where the votes for the brexit parties in the European elections are coming from, and where they would go for a GE. Not sure what you find so misleading about it.
 

null

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,325

LAB slightly up and CHUK/GRN slightly down but it's pretty close to YouGov's

seems like UKIP/BREX are just splitting their own voters rather than attracting new ones.
 

Protome

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,558
This is extremely misleading as it's comparing GE vote with EP vote.

The two systems have completely different electoral mechanisms (FPTP vs a form of PR) so obviously people vote differently.






UKIP are massively down! The pro-Brexit vote is massively down! These poll results are INCREDIBLY GOOD.

Where were you all in 2014 when this shitshow started? 5 years later and NOW you're horrified, terrified and disgusted when this shit is finally getting turned around?

2014 EP results:

UKIP - 26%
Labour - 24%
Tories - 23%
Green - 7%
Lib Dem - 6%

2019 Polling:

Labour - 24% (NC)
Tories - 16% (-7)
BXP - 15% (+15)
UKIP - 14% (-12)
Lib Dem - 8% (+2)
Green - 8% (+1)
CUK - 7% (+7)

That puts pro-Brexit parties down 4, and anti-Brexit parties up 10.
Your maths is pretty flawed there, largely because I assume you’re counting the Tories as a pro Brexit party in 2014 which is inaccurate, even if it is true now. Labour is also Pro Brexit now so really the numbers have shot up massively due to the realignment of party views. Even if you remove Labour and the Tories entirely Pro Brexit parties have gained 3% based on those numbers.
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,481
Does The Brexit Party have any policies other than the vague notion of delivering Brexit?

Regardless, it’s amusing seeing Farage and whatshisname duking it out.

Never thought UKIP would get an even more unlikeable leader.
 

Tygre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,903
Chesire, UK
Your maths is pretty flawed there, largely because I assume you’re counting the Tories as a pro Brexit party in 2014 which is inaccurate, even if it is true now. Labour is also Pro Brexit now so really the numbers have shot up massively due to the realignment of party views. Even if you remove Labour and the Tories entirely Pro Brexit parties have gained 3% based on those numbers.
I think the Tories as a Eurosceptic party is a fairly solid read.

"Brexit" might not have existed in 2014, but the Tories were very much a party of Euroscepticism back then.
 

Protome

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Oct 27, 2017
7,558
I think the Tories as a Eurosceptic party is a fairly solid read.

"Brexit" might not have existed in 2014, but the Tories were very much a party of Euroscepticism back then.
Some of them were, but it was most definitely not party policy. Labour are now pro-Brexit so the pro Brexit numbers are still higher regardless.
 

Cocolina

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,629
So are we expecting there to be some results before the new deadline or just kicking the can until the last minute?
There should be the expectation of a vote in parliament on an approach. That's the bare minimum I expect at least.

Either MV "whatever number it is now again", a "new and improved" MV with some Labour clauses, or other options like 2nd ref/withdraw.
 
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Lagamorph

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,433
Most likely May will basically come back and say to MPs that it's her deal or Corbyn's proposal that they have to choose from in order to try and bring Tory rebels on side to get her deal over the line.

With the European elections, the problem is that it can easily be interpreted as "A vote for Labour is a vote in support of Brexit", and really that's correct because the official party policy is to go through with it, and Labour aren't necessarily in favour of a second referendum, only a second referendum on a Tory Brexit, which Corbyn will say his 'deal' isn't so he may not support a referendum on it.
 

Tygre

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Oct 25, 2017
4,903
Chesire, UK
So are we expecting there to be some results before the new deadline or just kicking the can until the last minute?
There are two options:

1) A rabbit is pulled out of the hat before the Local Elections to try and stop the Tories getting destroyed.
2) The Tories getting destroyed in the Local Elections* causes a rabbit to be pulled out the hat shortly afterwards.

Answers on a postcard for what the rabbit might be.


*Things are looking delightfully grim for Tory councillors up and down the country. Tory activists just aren't turning up to meetings / to canvass, and the polling is through the floor.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,076
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/14/comparing-erg-to-nazis-not-strong-enough-says-david-lammy

Lammy said broadcasters including the BBC were allowing “this extreme hard right fascism to flourish”.

He said he was deeply concerned about the future of the country if Brexiters such as Rees-Mogg and Johnson took control of the Conservative party. “What kind of country are we going to be like if these people are running it?” he said.

Asked if he was saying that Rees-Mogg and Johnson were the modern-day equivalent of Nazis, Lammy said: “Ask Boris Johnson why he’s hanging out with Steve Bannon.”
 

kadotsu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,525
Of the current crop of MPs from the main national parties, Lammy would absolutely be my pick for PM.
He is good on creating public assets (de-privatisation) and austerity. Policy wise he is great. In a fair world he would get a chance but he won't get it because of the party base, which might see him as another Obama (translation: 99% racism and 1% legit concern about a turn to a centrist Labour), or the voting public at large.
 

Micael

Member
Oct 28, 2017
671
UKIP are massively down! The pro-Brexit vote is massively down! These poll results are INCREDIBLY GOOD.

Where were you all in 2014 when this shitshow started? 5 years later and NOW you're horrified, terrified and disgusted when this shit is finally getting turned around?

2014 EP results:

UKIP - 26%
Labour - 24%
Tories - 23%
Green - 7%
Lib Dem - 6%

2019 Polling:

Labour - 24% (NC)
Tories - 16% (-7)
BXP - 15% (+15)
UKIP - 14% (-12)
Lib Dem - 8% (+2)
Green - 8% (+1)
CUK - 7% (+7)

That puts pro-Brexit parties down 4, and anti-Brexit parties up 10.
I would not describe this anywhere near close the realm of incredibly good, it is arguably an improvement depending on how one looks at it, but either way given all that has transpired so far, how brexit has shown itself to be so obviously bad, seeing numbers like this should worry anyone with a stake in it.

Personally if my country was only 4 points down on a position like brexit after close to 3 full years of nothing but a demonstration on how terribly bad it all is, I wouldn't even be calling it an improvement.

Hopefully the polls improve, because I suspect there will be a whole lot less good will to letting the UK continue to fuck around with brexit if the elections turn out this way.
 

Teddy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,034
He's great on some issues like this and Windrush, but get a grip guys.

At some point, we have to let the Iraq war go. He's the best right now and no one is perfect.

I think you mean Dan Jarvis.

He's basically been knocked off the map. Could say he's biding his time, but I don't think the current Labour membership would like him very much.
Yeah I think he voted for various forms of Hard Brexit lately (no peoples vote, no customs union, etc.), so he's got that massively against him.
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
638
the new dan jarvis is jess phillips which is exactly the same thing of corbyn-sceptics choosing a marketable media profile foremost over being able to articulating a coherent vision for the country in 2019. dan jarvis was just “he’s a soldier and war hero but also a single dad after being widowed, people will love him & the sun won’t even be able to smear him [wishful thinking lol]”. now jess phillips is “she tells it like it and doesn’t give a shit about anyone what a ledge, voters will find her honesty and brummie sense of humour so refreshing!!, policies what even are policies lol”

i think david lammy would do quite well in a leadership contest because like corbyn people will overlook issues because he’s undeniably such a strong crusading backbencher and he’s very strong on the main issues (effects of austerity, immigration, europe) for labour members.
 

Tygre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,903
Chesire, UK
Just in case anybody was thinking this Brexit thing would go smoothly:

The whole Settled Status shambles is a disgrace.

I would not describe this anywhere near close the realm of incredibly good, it is arguably an improvement depending on how one looks at it, but either way given all that has transpired so far, how brexit has shown itself to be so obviously bad, seeing numbers like this should worry anyone with a stake in it.
There is a pernicious, perfidious, running narrative being given oxygen by our media that failing to deliver Brexit will unleash forces of pro-Brexit chaos into our democracy.

Any polling or election results that show that to be a nonsense are to be welcomed. We may be halfway into the abyss, but we are clawing our way out of it, not sinking further in.
 

RedSparrows

Member
Feb 22, 2019
2,278
Just in case anybody was thinking this Brexit thing would go smoothly:

The whole Settled Status shambles is a disgrace.



There is a pernicious, perfidious, running narrative being given oxygen by our media that failing to deliver Brexit will unleash forces of pro-Brexit chaos into our democracy.

Any polling or election results that show that to be a nonsense are to be welcomed. We may be halfway into the abyss, but we are clawing our way out of it, not sinking further in.
The conceits this shit rely on are so telling and so powerful and yet never called out enough.

The settled status thing is shite. It's like Windrush. Utterly scandalous, but it doesn't penetrate the thick hide of British Identity Is All About Being Tolerant and Fair and Patriotic and We Have Legitimate Concerns.

Then there's the 'give us what we voted for or else' reading of democracy, which should be combated fiercely and firmly as distinctly 'un-British' if we're going down that road (as so many seem to want to do when making judgement calls). But nobody seems to have the balls to do so cos as ever, it's not about substance, but form.
 

kradical

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,036
So you think that all politicians get to choose to vote in line with their core principles and beliefs? It’s all about painful compromise to an imperfect party vision. It’s fucking horrible and takes a certain mindset.
There's no compromise to be had when it comes to supporting an illegal war that left a million dead and the whole region destabalised for generations to come. 84 Labour MPs, including the current leader of the Labour party and most of his front bench, voted against the invasion and chose their core principles and beliefs (i.e they were opposed to the slaughter of innocent people on false pretenses) over the party vision. Shame on every single MP who did not, and they should be reminded of the blood on their hands every day for the rest of their lives.
 
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Dougald

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,781
The settled status documents say "BUILDING A SAFE, JUST AND TOLERANT SOCIETY" on the front

When I saw that, my eyes rolled so far back into my head they went all the way around
 
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