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Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,694
Quickly exiting the 2019 was a simulation timeline in order to jump into nani the fuk territory.

I can barely see 2020 from here, but between Trump losing his shit in Caligula fashion and Brexit, it's looking dank.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
Obligatory reminder that the Tories were 20 points ahead of Labour in all polls and predicting a Conservative majority of 50-70 when the 2017 election was called.

And people took the wrong notion of what happened in that campaign to think Corbyn just needs some airtime. Firstly what happened in 2017 was that remainers broke to Labour and secondly Corbyn of 2019 isn't the Corbyn of 2017, he's far more unpopular these days.
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,797
Yep, Corbyn fucked it up at the conference, he could have got away with him being neutral if he had let the party be itself and pro remain, it now has nothing to say.

Yeah.

I don't really see who it appeals to in a broad way.

If you're fed up of Brexit and want it done - vote Tory.

If you're fed up of Brexit and want it cancelled - vote Lib Dem.

Everyone's fed up with it, no one is clamouring for more negotiations or for this to roll on for years.

(In a wider sense)
 

danowat

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,783
Even the "we? Didn't win two world wars bit was crossing the cringe line, but we had to go and call the leader of modern day Germany a kraut.

This country needs to move on.
That's all we've got, 2 world wars (of which would have been very different if we didn't have a 20 odd mile natural border) and one world cup, all of which happened DECADES ago.
 

Ushojax

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,927
Obligatory reminder that the Tories were 20 points ahead of Labour in all polls and predicting a Conservative majority of 50-70 when the 2017 election was called.

Obligatory reminder that they then produced what can only be described as a suicidal manifesto after May got high on her own farts.

Now that the Tories are pretending to care about spending on public services and nicking Labour policies I don't see 2017 repeating itself. That 2017 manifesto had foxhunting in it for god's sake, plus the policy about forcing old people to sell their homes to pay for care.
 

CD_93

Member
Dec 12, 2017
2,988
Lancashire, United Kingdom
This is an entirely sound reaction to having people present reasons why a claim you made might not be true.

What claim was that? That polls might not mean shit?

We don't even know whether we'll be out of the EU by the end of the month, let alone what effect that might have either way on the vote share for any party.

Do we leave on October 31st with a surprise deal and everything as smooth as it possibly could be, vindicating Dear Leader Johnson? Do we leave with No Deal and everything isn't as bad as feared? Do we leave with No Deal, tanking the economy, causing chaos up and down the country? Is there a Brexit extension? Do voters stick with Boris or flock to Farage? Does the Conservative vote hold steady or completely tumble? Does Swinson hold her nose and back a Corbyn-led interim Government? Is Corbyn filmed cutting up a Jewish congregation on his bike, proving unequivocially that he's actually a massive racist?
 
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Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,766
Obligatory reminder that they then produced what can only be described as a suicidal manifesto after May got high on her own farts.

Now that the Tories are pretending to care about spending on public services and nicking Labour policies I don't see 2017 repeating itself. That 2017 manifesto had foxhunting in it for god's sake, plus the policy about forcing old people to sell their homes to pay for care.

Yes exactly. This is a Brexit election this time. A lot of people will vote purely to be rid of Brexit (even though they won't, no matter who they vote for).

Plus it is well worth keeping in mind that the Tories have been wrecking the NHS, social services, public spaces and many people's lives for nearly a decade now and people still vote them in.
 

Anton

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
671
We're in kind of a unique situation because all of the party leaders are pretty well hated so it's anyone's guess as to how that might play out
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
You really don't see how it's different?

There's different variables, but Boris is also a risk over a long campaign and Corbyn was equally unpopular at one point.

The election will come down to how well the remain voters can tactically cancel out the Brexiter ones. Campaign changing events usually come out of nowhere if they happen and aren't something you can predict, May should have been no contest really.
 

Deleted member 31104

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Nov 5, 2017
2,572
There's different variables, but Boris is also a risk over a long campaign and Corbyn was equally unpopular at one point.

The election will come down to how well the remain voters can tactically cancel out the Brexiter ones. Campaign changing events usually come out of nowhere if they happen and aren't something you can predict, May should have been no contest really.

Corbyn has literally never been this unpopular (well he's had a tiny uptick in the last couple of weeks but he reach his lifetime nadir last month). His net approval was -47% in the ten polls since August. His approval over the same period (about a month going before the election) going into the 2017 was -24%
 

Deleted member 862

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Oct 25, 2017
8,646
IvpKGOZ.png


Now enough time has passed you can see where the votes went in the polling.

Leave voter abandoned the Tories and then came back for Johnson but at they going to stick around now?

Remain voters largely left Labour and haven't come back but there's almost no Lib/Lab marginals so in an election are they really going to vote LD in those seats and risk a Tory MP when Labour are offering exactly what they want? I don't see it.

It's going to be tactical but if people aren't stupid about it there's more than enough there to kick the Tories out.
 

FliX

Master of the Reality Stone
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
9,863
Metro Detroit
IvpKGOZ.png


Now enough time has passed you can see where the votes went in the polling.

Leave voter abandoned the Tories and then came back for Johnson but at they going to stick around now?

Remain voters largely left Labour and haven't come back but there's almost no Lib/Lab marginals so in an election are they really going to vote LD in those seats and risk a Tory MP when Labour are offering exactly what they want? I don't see it.

It's going to be tactical but if people aren't stupid about it there's more than enough there to kick the Tories out.
That's a big ask. I would hazard that most people are not really aware if their constituency is a LAB/CON or LAB/LIB marginal. People vote based on national politics for the most part.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
Remain voters largely left Labour and haven't come back but there's almost no Lib/Lab marginals so in an election are they really going to vote LD in those seats and risk a Tory MP when Labour are offering exactly what they want? I don't see it.

Corbyn isn't offering what they want really, he's going to still put a version of leaving on the table and it would have a chance of winning. They would take it compared to what the Tories are threatening but it isn't appealing.
 

Deleted member 34788

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Nov 29, 2017
3,545
Yes exactly. This is a Brexit election this time. A lot of people will vote purely to be rid of Brexit (even though they won't, no matter who they vote for).

Plus it is well worth keeping in mind that the Tories have been wrecking the NHS, social services, public spaces and many people's lives for nearly a decade now and people still vote them in.


Your first paragraph is exactly the way the cons ran in 2017. May ran on a brexit platform, partly the reason why they didn't bother to much in the domestic polices. Partly why they are only bothering slightly more now. She went to the populace for a mandate on Brexit, there was little to no point why the ge took place apart from that, to achieve a commanding majority on brexit. This gov repeated the same steps almost in lockstep, just on a much quicker, reckless and idiotic timescale. Resusing to learn any lessons from May's failure.

The only difference being if they go full no deal, doubtful as it would split both the party and base, and having a current leader that appeals to only a very select demographic. Bojo narrows the appeal of the cons.

Regardless, everything is extremely likely to change this month polling wise. People have posted multiple pics from multiple pollsters of how polling changes dramatically to favour the remain parties and bxp once the extension kicks in.

Lab gets a good boost too.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
Regardless, everything is extremely likely to change this month polling wise. People have posted multiple pics from multiple pollsters of how polling changes dramatically to favour the remain parties and bxp once the extension kicks in.

Lab gets a good boost too.

Hasn't that started to change as the brexiters start to trust that Boris is giving his all and isn't pretending.

I read something about it a few days ago, can't remember if it was reliable though.
 

MrMysterio

Member
Oct 25, 2017
701
Like, if I were a fascist, that's how I'd play it. Once their press and social media campaigns gain a bit of traction they'll start suggesting declaring an emergency.
 

Deleted member 34788

User requested account closure
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Nov 29, 2017
3,545
Hasn't that started to change as the brexiters start to trust that Boris is giving his all and isn't pretending.

I read something about it a few days ago, can't remember if it was reliable though.

Frankly, I wouldn't take much stock in polls if they moved in any direction before the extension. The only thing I do know for certain is the polling leads the cons have in various polls is less then I thought. Polling from 4-8 points is less theb what I thought with brexit bojo in charge and having a week or two free reign running a (shit) ge campaign.

I suspect farage is keeping a ton of ammo for the culture war he and his backers will spend on eating into the tories and wrecking the campaign. That alone will play a big part in draning votes from the cons, never mind the millions of moderates likely to go to the lib dems.

John curtice surprised me the most though, this week. He effectively said what I thought about leavers, like they have done this year, abandoning the cons and going to bxp once they hear about the extension.
 

Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,766
Your first paragraph is exactly the way the cons ran in 2017. May ran on a brexit platform, partly the reason why they didn't bother to much in the domestic polices. Partly why they are only bothering slightly more now. She went to the populace for a mandate on Brexit, there was little to no point why the ge took place apart from that, to achieve a commanding majority on brexit. This gov repeated the same steps almost in lockstep, just on a much quicker, reckless and idiotic timescale. Resusing to learn any lessons from May's failure.

The only difference being if they go full no deal, doubtful as it would split both the party and base, and having a current leader that appeals to only a very select demographic. Bojo narrows the appeal of the cons.

Regardless, everything is extremely likely to change this month polling wise. People have posted multiple pics from multiple pollsters of how polling changes dramatically to favour the remain parties and bxp once the extension kicks in.

Lab gets a good boost too.

Yes but as mentioned previously, they also had a full list of other policies that included old people paying for their own care. Alienating their own base. Also bringing back fox hunting, which I assume was just something they (rich idiots) wanted and thought they could achieve as they would win by landslide.

Labour also ran a fantastic campaign, Corbyn did what he does best and got out there and Momentum mobilised a lot of the young vote. If memory serves, May does what she did best and sat around not realkly doing anything until she thought she was in trouble.

2017 is in no way the same as 2019. Brexit has gone up the or four gears and the Tories have been laying the groundwork for months already. Repeated elections are going to annoy people and the blame is going to land squarely at the opposition's door.

Of course, as you've said predicting is a mug's game and I could be totally wrong, I often am.

I just think it is foolhardy to think that just because our current sitting PM is involved in domestic abuse, nepotism, racism, incompetence and has a history of failure will mean that the public won't vote for him.

The public have an incredible aptitude for selfishness and ignorance.
 

iapetus

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,078
Yeah.

I don't really see who it appeals to in a broad way.

If you're fed up of Brexit and want it done - vote Tory.

If you're fed up of Brexit and want it cancelled - vote Lib Dem.

Everyone's fed up with it, no one is clamouring for more negotiations or for this to roll on for years.

(In a wider sense)

I don't see why people are so confused by Labour's Brexit policy.

At its heart, they're a remain party. However, just cancelling Brexit is going to lead to a lot of shit because we're ignoring the democratic will of the people. The only way to cut that one off at the knees is for the people to decide democratically to remain. Which means a fair referendum is required (one where a real Brexit deal is put up against a real Remain deal rather than a collection of contradictory unicorns against reality, and where everyone who should have a say gets one). It seems likely that any actual Brexit deal loses horribly to Remain in a fair fight. But if there's even the slightest chance of ending up with another Leave vote, then that Leave needs to be a sane version negotiated in good faith, and it doesn't take an expert to realise that this isn't something May or Johnson have left us with.

Now, you might not agree with that. But claiming it's in any way confusing or unclear is beyond me. It's quite a pragmatic approach.
 

Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,766
Pretty sure May dodged the debates too.

Yes, that's true. If I remember correctly, they knew she would get eviscerated as:

A- May is not a very good speaker
B- The half arsed deal they were going after would please no one.

So they operated a policy of just sitting back and hoping the opposition would destroy itself.

Bojo has already proven he will be out and about slinging his three or four stupid slogans about. If there's anything we learned during the Brexit and Trump era, it's that you only need a couple of catchy slogans with literally no substance to convince a lot of people.
 

dean_rcg

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,270
I don't see why people are so confused by Labour's Brexit policy.

At its heart, they're a remain party. However, just cancelling Brexit is going to lead to a lot of shit because we're ignoring the democratic will of the people. The only way to cut that one off at the knees is for the people to decide democratically to remain. Which means a fair referendum is required (one where a real Brexit deal is put up against a real Remain deal rather than a collection of contradictory unicorns against reality, and where everyone who should have a say gets one). It seems likely that any actual Brexit deal loses horribly to Remain in a fair fight. But if there's even the slightest chance of ending up with another Leave vote, then that Leave needs to be a sane version negotiated in good faith, and it doesn't take an expert to realise that this isn't something May or Johnson have left us with.

Now, you might not agree with that. But claiming it's in any way confusing or unclear is beyond me. It's quite a pragmatic approach.

I think a lot of people choose to be confused by it i.e. Fiona Bruce but at it's heart it can't be distilled to Leave or Stay.
 

Protome

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,677
Yes, that's true. If I remember correctly, they knew she would get eviscerated as:

A- May is not a very good speaker
B- The half arsed deal they were going after would please no one.

So they operated a policy of just sitting back and hoping the opposition would destroy itself.

Bojo has already proven he will be out and about slinging his three or four stupid slogans about. If there's anything we learned during the Brexit and Trump era, it's that you only need a couple of catchy slogans with literally no substance to convince a lot of people.
It wouldn't surprise me if Bojo skips the debates too tbh. He has been avoiding PMQs because he knows he's shit at it and every attempt at a public statement from him has been a disaster so far. They're even struggling to get his "surrender act" line to stick.
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,677
Yeah... that's not a good look from her there.

But I guess at the moment it's all coming down to "your view on brexit" over anything else.
 
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