BREXIT |OT2.0| A parade of endless victories for Boris Johnson

kmag

Member
Nov 5, 2017
1,840

Anyway, thread here about Phil Hammond's analysis of the benefits of any new trade deals. It'd be nice if this had been discussed years ago.
The most illustrative example of how little new trade deals will accomplish is TTIP (the failed EU-US trade partnership)

Back in 2013, when the UK treasury was trying to sell the notion of TTIP (and the majority of the agreement was in view) and well before anyone could suggest a remain bias, the UK treasury released it's modelling of the Economic effects of TTIP on the UK economy. It found the following





That's right, a long run (10 years plus ) increase of between 0.14% and 0.27% of GDP. It's a slightly better than a fucking rounding error. And that's with the EU's negotiating power, something the UK doesn't have. Trump is transactional, he doesn't do favours.


In general FTA's (or PTA's: preferential trade agreements to give them their correct name, there's nothing free about a trade agreement the cost of compliance with Rules of Origin can be higher than most tariffs: around 2% to 6% on average). The EU and the US, and frankly most major 'Western' economies are pretty liberal with trade there's actually little gain in PTA's (most of their utility is in encouraging more closed economies to open up), you might think that means wayhey the EU is pretty open so you don't have to worry about the single market access, but the beauty of the single market is that there's no additional compliance cost, you simply put your goods on the market.
 

Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,044
I'll say it again: I'm a bit ashamed I didn't see the consequences of the Japan-EU trade deal.

I used to think that a bad Brexit would crush Sunderland and other factories, but given the circumstances, even a well negotiated Brexit would probably make those locations undesirable. Anything but remain will put enormous stress on the car industry. And if the Japanese go away, the supply chain will be demolished for pretty much everybody else.
 

Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,044
I also wonder about the future of precision industries like machine tools manufacturers and several engineering firms involved in production. Anything that impacts manufacturing or brings tariffs is going to take a serious toll.
 

danowat

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,906
I also wonder about the future of precision industries like machine tools manufacturers and several engineering firms involved in production. Anything that impacts manufacturing or brings tariffs is going to take a serious toll.
We've done a lot of equipment for UK car plants in the past (JLR, Nissan, Toyota etc), but nothing for years (surprisingly), all of our work is now outside of the EU, mainly China, Taiwan and the US.

We've no idea how no deal will affect us, but we're a pretty niche part of a fairly niche market, so I think the work will always be there no matter what, but the price of steel and ancil equipment will affect us.
 

excowboy

Member
Oct 29, 2017
454

Anyway, thread here about Phil Hammond's analysis of the benefits of any new trade deals. It'd be nice if this had been discussed years ago.
He was on Radio5 earlier and Emma Barnett did take him to task. Basically, 'why the fuck are you only saying this now when you've been saying the opposite for 3 years?!'. He didn't really have much of a come back.

At least there's this to cheer us up:
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,969
I think this is true. I think the biggest issue is that we have a number of journalists and correspondents presenting spin as fact, or at least as a credible line of questioning for opposition.
I think it’s fine to present spin as factual in the sense that “this is what the government/whoever are saying”, but yes- agree with the sentiment overall.
 

SMD

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
3,801
I'm seeing someone in that tweet working for the Telegraph moaning about the state of the debate on EU matters, and blaming others for it.
It's incredible how he's lamenting the government for doing what his paper are basically set up to do.

There's going to be so much handwringing and everyone is gonna be like "wasn't me guv".

Its absurd the complete lack of responsibility in the public sphere.

Hammond is a gobshite, he was better placed than everyone bar the PM to make change possible.
 

CampFreddie

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,025
I'm seeing someone in that tweet working for the Telegraph moaning about the state of the debate on EU matters, and blaming others for it.
One of the paradoxes of brexit reporting is that some of the most incisive anti-brexit twitter commentary seems to come from the European/Foreign Affairs reporters at massively pro-Brexit newspapers.
Tom Newton Dunn is another one. His tweets are all about how impossible a brexit deal is and how hopelessly broken the Tory party are, but the Sun's headlines are all about how great Brexit is and how only a traitor would talk down our prospects.
 

CampFreddie

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,025
I also wonder about the future of precision industries like machine tools manufacturers and several engineering firms involved in production. Anything that impacts manufacturing or brings tariffs is going to take a serious toll.
I think the manufacturing industries generally use Japanese companies as a bellwether or canary down the mineshaft.
If they pull out investment, then almost every manufacturing company will suffer from greatly reduced market confidence.
They'll have an uphill struggle to convince investors that they can survive and propser after Brexit while Nissan can't.
 

kmag

Member
Nov 5, 2017
1,840
One of the paradoxes of brexit reporting is that some of the most incisive anti-brexit twitter commentary seems to come from the European/Foreign Affairs reporters at massively pro-Brexit newspapers.
Tom Newton Dunn is another one. His tweets are all about how impossible a brexit deal is and how hopelessly broken the Tory party are, but the Sun's headlines are all about how great Brexit is and how only a traitor would talk down our prospects.
See Nick Guttridge of the Sun and James Crisp of the Telegraph, both Brussels correspondents who's twitter threads are insightful and even tempered, and who's printed output is horribly cartoonist.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,783
London
One of the paradoxes of brexit reporting is that some of the most incisive anti-brexit twitter commentary seems to come from the European/Foreign Affairs reporters at massively pro-Brexit newspapers.
Tom Newton Dunn is another one. His tweets are all about how impossible a brexit deal is and how hopelessly broken the Tory party are, but the Sun's headlines are all about how great Brexit is and how only a traitor would talk down our prospects.
It's probably from being surrounded by and having to argue with a bunch of maniacs, but i still couldn't work for a paper/owner determined to fuck the country over, the case has been made for the EU it just doesn't get heard over all the lies and nonsense.
 

FliXFantatier

Master of the Reality Stone
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
3,964
Los Angeles

Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
465
Do they have any even remotely semi-reasonable justification for this
Just found this Independent article, which has much more info.

Key section:

The Brexit Party said that claims of Russian interference in elections were "baseless propaganda and scare stories used to shut down debate". But other MEPs criticised the party's vote and said disinformation was being "weaponised by hostile foreign actors".

What exact debate are being shut down, I'm not really sure but Brexit Party are very much following the alt-right playbook. Protest the things that will reduce your power then claim that it would infringe on some vague rights that you never define.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,302
Corbyn is in a sticky position if Labour MPs are ready to revolt over having a referendum before an election, though it sounds more like rumblings and grumblings than something that'll happen.

I get a GE would be easier when Brexit is resolved but I'm not sure how parliament as it is now does resolve it. Put May's deal vs remain in a referendum I guess, which I wouldn't be too opposed to tbh.
 

Cocolina

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,356
I watched a bit of EU parliament yesterday and its tragic. You've got basically the entire BXP LTD there, a couple of Lib Dems who look like they're scared of their own farts, one guy in a tshirt and baseball cap, a Tory MEP in a suit who probably sits on a bench outside Westminster hoping to be let in and then a random smattering of Euros with most the seats empty. It's a farce, and I feel sorry for the speaker who has to pretend she's doing a job.

Its always been a circus but this new class is something else.
 

null

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,793
Corbyn is in a sticky position if Labour MPs are ready to revolt over having a referendum before an election, though it sounds more like rumblings and grumblings than something that'll happen.

I get a GE would be easier when Brexit is resolved but I'm not sure how parliament as it is now does resolve it. Put May's deal vs remain in a referendum I guess, which I wouldn't be too opposed to tbh.
It's not his choice to make.
 

Operon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
93
What I don't understand about the two letter strategy is why do they think the EU will bother reading the second letter asking them to ignore the first
 

Operon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
93
I think that if the deal is back to the original northern Ireland Backstop with a consent where no one side of the community has a veto it could pass, enough mps would probably vote to get brexit through
 

Mivey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,753
PROJECT FEAR!!!!1111!!!!!111

(Is that how it goes?)
I always wondered why that line is so effective. Fear is often a very good thing. If you cross the street, you better be afraid of being run over and check incoming traffic first. If you leave the EU, you should be afraid that it will economically ruin your country.
Only a buffoon is completely free for any fear.
 

danowat

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,906
16 year olds from lots of different countries going to war together to defend europe in 1939 vs 16 years olds from lots of different countries going to war together to defend europe in 2020.

The Great Brexit paradox.

The is only one project fear, and that is the pure fear all Brexiteers have of foreigners, you could literally hear that blokes voice quivering.
 

Flammable D

Member
Oct 30, 2017
12,125
I always wondered why that line is so effective. Fear is often a very good thing. If you cross the street, you better be afraid of being run over and check incoming traffic first. If you leave the EU, you should be afraid that it will economically ruin your country.
Only a buffoon is completely free for any fear.
Because the implication is that it's made up to scare you, not that you shouldn't be scared of true things
 

Protome

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,791
I always wondered why that line is so effective. Fear is often a very good thing. If you cross the street, you better be afraid of being run over and check incoming traffic first. If you leave the EU, you should be afraid that it will economically ruin your country.
Only a buffoon is completely free for any fear.
The thing that annoys me is that the Leave campaign nicked in the first place. That phrase was coined by the Yes campaign during the Scottish indieref as a label for the actual mistruths the No campaign was often spouting.
 

Gareth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,952
Norn Iron
Corbyn is in a sticky position if Labour MPs are ready to revolt over having a referendum before an election, though it sounds more like rumblings and grumblings than something that'll happen.

I get a GE would be easier when Brexit is resolved but I'm not sure how parliament as it is now does resolve it. Put May's deal vs remain in a referendum I guess, which I wouldn't be too opposed to tbh.
Do they have the numbers in parliament now for a referendum to get through? If not surely you'd need to have an election to try to change the arithmetic.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,787

Garfield

Member
Oct 31, 2018
1,222
I just wonder if Boris is about to sell the DUP down the road and hope he picks up more Labour MP,s

The reality is he does have a very powerful arguement on the 19th. For those in leave areas. The reality is vote down the deal and we go to a penalty shoot out (election) and there is no guarantee any leave MPs will get their brexit
 

Brotherhood93

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,609
I just wonder if Boris is about to sell the DUP down the road and hope he picks up more Labour MP,s

The reality is he does have a very powerful arguement on the 19th. For those in leave areas. The reality is vote down the deal and we go to a penalty shoot out (election) and there is no guarantee any leave MPs will get their brexit
Any concession from his current proposal that loses the DUP is likely to lose some support from the ERG too, then any extra Labour MPs won't be enough.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,783
London
He can't sell out the DUP without upsetting a lot of tories and firing up the Brexit party, i will wait for something more than rumours though. That's the trouble with waffling on about surrender, the union and other claptrap, it paints you into a corner.
 

jelly

Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,522
Depends what Brexiters think their chances are of getting what they really want and if it's worth the gamble being hard line, they can probably taste no deal at this point and don't want to give it up for something less, they are basically gamblers and have a lot of money to make if they get their way. Also remember Gove basically saying sign anything and change it later. I would be fuming if enough MPs squeaked a shit deal over the line just to be done with it. Unforgivable. I still think it's likely we get a fuck it, 2nd Ref to settle it ending but how you get to play that card, I really don't know, could go either way or nothing changes.