BREXIT |OT2.0| A parade of endless victories for Boris Johnson

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,307
Ahahah. So, ironically... the EU will still "control" us.

I fucking love it. I can't wait to watch the gammons jump through hoops to justify the deal with that in it.
 

31GhostsIV

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,932
This week has been exhausting. Just a torrent of speculation, each tweet or headline contradicting the last.

An amendment to include a confirmatory referendum would be good but I don't see it getting the votes.
 

solidussnaku

Member
Nov 29, 2017
979

(thread)

Seems BJ conceded on the LPF
Well, he’s fucked it.

ERG will be baying for blood. They won’t give a single shit if the whip is withdrawn, LPF was the killer for a good deal of them with May and the no dealers fucking hate it with a passion.

But won’t be surprised of this was the play for BoJo anyway, concede a fuckton and cross everyone’s red lines for the deal to be unpalatable to everyone this side of the pond. He can save a little face before the seemingly inevitable extension.
 

Ushojax

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,754
I'm looking forward to seeing the ERG contort themselves into voting for this despite it being a complete betrayal of all their supposed ideals. If you thought May's deal was surrender then this is basically self-immolation.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,275
What's interesting is the urgency also on EU side. It feels like nobody wants another pointless extension. Maybe there won't be one without a minimum deal.
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
615
This week has been exhausting. Just a torrent of speculation, each tweet or headline contradicting the last.

An amendment to include a confirmatory referendum would be good but I don't see it getting the votes.
Was just trying to work out the numbers for it. Labour (-Hoey), Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Tig & Greens gets to 308. Would all hinge on the Tory rebels.
 

Koukalaka

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,474
Scotland
The EU will ensure it gets through parliament by making it at take it or leave it. They want this done.
This is my worry - this is an insane-sounding duct taped arrangement and the lack of overwhelming support should be an indicator of that. It's clear the only reason Johnson is powering ahead with this is he's scared shitless of the Benn Act.

Regardless of the deal, there quite possibly either has to be a change in numbers from a GE or the "mandate" of a confirmatory referendum for it to go through.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,275
why would the EU do that?

Only the EU Council could do that and I really doubt they'll all agree
Usually EU doesn't do things in such a rush. Pushing this for discussion and approval so quickly without even having a legal text for the ambassadors as the tweets suggest could point out the fact that EU really wants this done now and not delay/extend any further without any deal on the table.
 

Brotherhood93

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,609
Was just trying to work out the numbers for it. Labour (-Hoey), Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Tig & Greens gets to 308. Would all hinge on the Tory rebels.
See my post below. Also, it should be noted that Hoey voted against May's deal. I can't recall what her issue with that was but not a forgone conclusion she'll be voting for Boris' either. She'd be pretty happy with no deal and has no pressure to vote for this surrender agreement. She could go join Farage's crusade.
I keep seeing this asked and I've posted some hypotheticals already on this thread. The truth is nobody knows because we can't even be sure how the DUP are going to vote never mind individual MPs. Let me break it down a bit more though and hopefully people can use these numbers to formulate their own hypothesis:

Tories: 288 (-1 for deputy speaker)
Labour: 245 (-2 for deputy speakers)
SNP: 35
Lib Dems: 19
DUP: 10
TIG: 5
Plaid Cymru: 4
Greens: 1

Independents who voted for MV3: 24
Independents who voted against MV3: 10
Independent who abstained in MV3: 1 (Supports Brexit)

Of those Independents who voted for MV3, 20 had the Tory whip at the time. Of those who voted against MV3, 2 had the Labour whip at the time and 3 had the Tory whip. Whether this changes the direction of their vote I don't know. Probably unlikely.

If the DUP don't go for the deal it doesn't pass, that is pretty simple. If the DUP do go for the deal and you tally that up so everyone votes with their party (+no change with IND) you have 321-317 in favour of the deal (the Ayes have it, the Ayes have it). There probably will be rebels though, some on both sides and it could literally come down to who has more between Labour and the Tories that decides it.
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
615
See my post below. Also, it should be noted that Hoey voted against May's deal. I can't recall what her issue with that was but not a forgone conclusion she'll be voting for Boris' either. She'd be pretty happy with no deal and has no pressure to vote for this surrender agreement. She could go join Farage's crusade.
Haha yeah I was using your post to do my sums. And yeah, I cut Hoey off of Labour's numbers for that reason. God knows where things are going to go from here, honestly.
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,555
I mean perhaps they are able to bully the DUP/ERG into voting for this (and there are clear signs that they are far more inclined to vote for a worse deal than May's now that it's coming from their man)... but I can't quite believe the loons are going to vote for something where we've conceded on the major concerns of the DUP & the major concerns of the ERG.

If that is the case and this deal does get agreed and fails in parliament due to a lack of support from Labour rebels, the ERG and the DUP while Farage and co are ripping into it day after day... isn't Boris doing enormous damage to himself?
 

nature boy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,503
Usually EU doesn't do things in such a rush. Pushing this for discussion and approval so quickly without even having a legal text for the ambassadors as the tweets suggest could point out the fact that EU really wants this done now and not delay/extend any further without any deal on the table.
Their rush (not sure I would call it rush tbh) is to avoid a second EU Council if they can. Heads of government got better things to do than to fly to Brussels next week because of the UK's fuck-ups.

I don't think it relates to wanting to get rid of the UK ASAP (although I'm sure they're fed up of Brexit like most of us).

Don’t underestimate the possibility.

Just today Macron vetoed Albania and northern Macedonia becoming EU candidates for no real reason.
I would agree Macron is pushing his luck recently, but Brexit is not similar to this situation.
 
Oct 27, 2017
392

Puroresu_kid

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,049
Listening to Steve Baker on Peston was embarrassing. Guy tripped himself up numerous times.

The ERG are just going back on the same readlines they issued to Theresa May.
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
191
Listening to Steve Baker on Peston was embarrassing. Guy tripped himself up numerous times.

The ERG are just going back on the same readlines they issued to Theresa May.
eh their red lines were always bullshit, the priority was replacing the remain voting may and hammond who would have used the backstop in their WA to long-term secure a closer relationship with the eu on customs with boris who has gone for a harder brexit and has secured the buccaneering global britain de-regulation carnival model

if the deal is passed they will have decisively won despite being constantly mocked

if
 
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OP
Uzzy

Uzzy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,060
Level Playing Field commitments only being in the political declaration is a big change, and one that shouldn't be supported by the EU or Labour. Do they really think that Boris Johnson will keep to his word? Seriously?
 

Maledict

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,445
Level Playing Field commitments only being in the political declaration is a big change, and one that shouldn't be supported by the EU or Labour. Do they really think that Boris Johnson will keep to his word? Seriously?
It’s not a question of keeping his word. It’s the basis for a zero tariff free trading agreement - which makes sense. That would always be the bedrock of such an agreement, it’s impossible to do one otherwise realistically.

The question is whether or not he even wants that. He and the ERG could happily vote for this in the knowledge it means nothing at all. The ERG don’t even want a zero tariff free trading agreement with Europe so why bother about a requirement that applies if you do?
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,307
Kinnock is simple enough to fall for it too. I fully expect him to vote for it and then (deservedly) get drummed out of the Labour party.
 

Antrax

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,503
this is going to hurt us so much. businesses have to work to only plan 4 years ahead as who knows what happens after that. Could be all change. Sounds like a disaster.
Businesses have already been doing the calculus on this for years now. That's why any of them in the UK who can move into the continent have been making plans to do all that.

I don't think that's reversible no matter what happens either. If I'm a business in that situation, why not just move now and bid farewell to Brexit altogether.
 

Menchi

Member
Oct 28, 2017
487
I hope these Brexit Lab MPs support it, but not enough to get it to pass, and then they lose their membership. They’re disgusting career first monsters that don’t give a damn about the actual well being of their constituents.