- Oct 25, 2017
Seems BJ conceded on the LPF
Lib Dems tabling a motion next week. Johnson being so desperate to push anything through before the 31st that we end up with a second ref would be wonderful.
Well, he’s fucked it.
Was just trying to work out the numbers for it. Labour (-Hoey), Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Tig & Greens gets to 308. Would all hinge on the Tory rebels.
This is my worry - this is an insane-sounding duct taped arrangement and the lack of overwhelming support should be an indicator of that. It's clear the only reason Johnson is powering ahead with this is he's scared shitless of the Benn Act.
Usually EU doesn't do things in such a rush. Pushing this for discussion and approval so quickly without even having a legal text for the ambassadors as the tweets suggest could point out the fact that EU really wants this done now and not delay/extend any further without any deal on the table.
See my post below. Also, it should be noted that Hoey voted against May's deal. I can't recall what her issue with that was but not a forgone conclusion she'll be voting for Boris' either. She'd be pretty happy with no deal and has no pressure to vote for this surrender agreement. She could go join Farage's crusade.
I keep seeing this asked and I've posted some hypotheticals already on this thread. The truth is nobody knows because we can't even be sure how the DUP are going to vote never mind individual MPs. Let me break it down a bit more though and hopefully people can use these numbers to formulate their own hypothesis:
Tories: 288 (-1 for deputy speaker)
Labour: 245 (-2 for deputy speakers)
Lib Dems: 19
Plaid Cymru: 4
Independents who voted for MV3: 24
Independents who voted against MV3: 10
Independent who abstained in MV3: 1 (Supports Brexit)
Of those Independents who voted for MV3, 20 had the Tory whip at the time. Of those who voted against MV3, 2 had the Labour whip at the time and 3 had the Tory whip. Whether this changes the direction of their vote I don't know. Probably unlikely.
If the DUP don't go for the deal it doesn't pass, that is pretty simple. If the DUP do go for the deal and you tally that up so everyone votes with their party (+no change with IND) you have 321-317 in favour of the deal (the Ayes have it, the Ayes have it). There probably will be rebels though, some on both sides and it could literally come down to who has more between Labour and the Tories that decides it.
Boris has behaved so shoddily only to give way so much that they must be pissed off beyond belief, he's turned the country into a pantomime.
Haha yeah I was using your post to do my sums. And yeah, I cut Hoey off of Labour's numbers for that reason. God knows where things are going to go from here, honestly.See my post below. Also, it should be noted that Hoey voted against May's deal. I can't recall what her issue with that was but not a forgone conclusion she'll be voting for Boris' either. She'd be pretty happy with no deal and has no pressure to vote for this surrender agreement. She could go join Farage's crusade.
Their rush (not sure I would call it rush tbh) is to avoid a second EU Council if they can. Heads of government got better things to do than to fly to Brussels next week because of the UK's fuck-ups.Usually EU doesn't do things in such a rush. Pushing this for discussion and approval so quickly without even having a legal text for the ambassadors as the tweets suggest could point out the fact that EU really wants this done now and not delay/extend any further without any deal on the table.
I would agree Macron is pushing his luck recently, but Brexit is not similar to this situation.
I grew up there! I really miss the park and the harbour. Check out the Warchest if you like card games.
I want Boris 'Blood Stupid' Johnson to piss off somewhere and never be heard of again.
eh their red lines were always bullshit, the priority was replacing the remain voting may and hammond who would have used the backstop in their WA to long-term secure a closer relationship with the eu on customs with boris who has gone for a harder brexit and has secured the buccaneering global britain de-regulation carnival model
hoey isn’t the only labour mp willing to defy the whip to vote against a second referendum, there will be at least five
It seems like a lovely place. I'm definitely gonna be spending some free time wandering around there. Though I'll be living a a bit further north (ballsbridge).
It’s not a question of keeping his word. It’s the basis for a zero tariff free trading agreement - which makes sense. That would always be the bedrock of such an agreement, it’s impossible to do one otherwise realistically.
Businesses have already been doing the calculus on this for years now. That's why any of them in the UK who can move into the continent have been making plans to do all that.