BREXIT |OT2.0| A parade of endless victories for Boris Johnson

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Mavis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
689
Blue Mountains
No Deal isn't the other option though. Giving up on the Benn act to secure a Tory victory would be one of the dumbest things Labour have done in recent years. And they've done a lot of real dumb shit.
Benn act will still be in effect and Boris will have to ask for an extension anyway as a referendum would require it. This is the best we can hope for in my opinion. Labour go all in on remain, BP go all in no deal whilst trashing Boris, Boris goes "we have a deal, but NI aren't in it", very good chance in a referendum that remain will win out vs a deal that shafts the union. If remain does win then we will soon have a GE. BP will be splitting the tory vote a lot. Boris will have nothing to promise anyone, couldn't deliver Brexit, couldn't control his own party. May not be a Labour majority but it sure as hell won't be a Tory one either.

The hilarious thing would be to get an amendment through for a 2nd ref attached to Boris' exit deal and then watch as the ERG and Tories vote against their own EU exit plan due to the amendment, it could destroy them.
 

Dwebble

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,913
Seems to me that Boris has bet it all on a deal, and he's in an incredibly difficult spot if he can't land it. He can't credibly say that the EU are being intransigent with all of the palpable effort over the past few days, he can't blame the wreckers in Parliament because it's incredibly obvious that it's down to the DUP, and he's forced into an extension as a result of his own failure to negotiate. He then has to campaign on this deal, which has a gaping hole in it thanks to the DUP, leaving the Brexit Party to outflank him on the No Deal side and the Lib Dems to outflank him on the Remain side.

He really has been shitting himself over the Benn Act, that much is palpably clear.
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
1,398
London
Because the polling was inaccurate before and I have no faith that it'll be accurate this time. The most reliable polls from last time are all well within the margin of error this time, not "up by 6 points consistently." And these aren't two separate issues, winning a referendum will guarantee the Tories a significant vote bump in a GE. And the Tories wont be sidetracked with a WA so they'll actually start pushing their real shit through again.


Scrutinising a deal doesn't really matter though. Brexit voters ignored facts last time they'll ignore them this time.
Polling was not inaccurate. Leave was regularly ahead in some of the polls close to the ref and it was all in the margin of error. Now remain has led in all polls for well over a year, a lot of which over the margin of error. Moreover, even if not a single person has changed their mind then enough old leavers have died and been replaced by young remainers that remain would win off that alone. You've also entirely ignored that specific leave outcomes always lose support. If it's Johnson's deal vs remain, remain will do better than against generic leave. I also don't understand why you're so sure that if the Tories won they'd get a significant vote bump, or why that matters when they're so far ahead anyway. Also, Labour have made it clear desperately want Brexit to be resolved because they know it's a vote loser for them and a lot of their other policies are vote winners.

And even if you were right - so fucking what? If you're afraid a six point lead isn't accurate than what, being 10 points behind is actually fine? This is just fear based, evidence-free bullshit.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,377
London
If remain can't win a referendum after all this crap then i think we will just have to swallow the turd and get on with it.
 

kmag

Member
Nov 5, 2017
2,104
Cool lets see if it'll pass. I think it will as the EU will pull the rug from the remainers.

If Johnson passes a deal, you're looking at a Tory majority of over 50 in any GE
 

Zastava

Member
Feb 19, 2018
1,398
London
If remain can't win a referendum after all this crap then i think we will just have to swallow the turd and get on with it.
That's something that a lot of people don't seem to understand. No matter what we do or Labour do or whatever, there could be no good outcome. If we get a second ref, we lose, if we get a GE, we lose. This isn't a game. There may not actually be a path to victory. All you can do is play the odds and hope.

If there is a referendum it'll end up being Boris deal or no deal. Don't see enough Tories backing a remain option.
Presumably the idea is that it'd have to have remain on it or Boris's deal won't get through parliament at all. Though of course this depends on how many Tory independents and Labour rebels cave.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,457
DUP gonna drown in money

Last paragraph makes me think kmag is right and EU will try to force it through HoC.
 

Protome

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,560
If Labour (and the Lib Dems presumably) get a Second Referendum amended to the deal, they don't need the DUP to pass it.
 
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