I pop out to the shops and I come back to read Labour is shifting on the referendum at last, please do it.
This week has been exhausting. Just a torrent of speculation, each tweet or headline contradicting the last.
An amendment to include a confirmatory referendum would be good but I don't see it getting the votes.
The EU will ensure it gets through parliament by making it at take it or leave it. They want this done.
why would the EU do that?The EU will ensure it gets through parliament by making it at take it or leave it. They want this done.
why would the EU do that?
Only the EU Council could do that and I really doubt they'll all agree
See my post below. Also, it should be noted that Hoey voted against May's deal. I can't recall what her issue with that was but not a forgone conclusion she'll be voting for Boris' either. She'd be pretty happy with no deal and has no pressure to vote for this surrender agreement. She could go join Farage's crusade.Was just trying to work out the numbers for it. Labour (-Hoey), Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Tig & Greens gets to 308. Would all hinge on the Tory rebels.
I keep seeing this asked and I've posted some hypotheticals already on this thread. The truth is nobody knows because we can't even be sure how the DUP are going to vote never mind individual MPs. Let me break it down a bit more though and hopefully people can use these numbers to formulate their own hypothesis:
Tories: 288 (-1 for deputy speaker)
Labour: 245 (-2 for deputy speakers)
SNP: 35
Lib Dems: 19
DUP: 10
TIG: 5
Plaid Cymru: 4
Greens: 1
Independents who voted for MV3: 24
Independents who voted against MV3: 10
Independent who abstained in MV3: 1 (Supports Brexit)
Of those Independents who voted for MV3, 20 had the Tory whip at the time. Of those who voted against MV3, 2 had the Labour whip at the time and 3 had the Tory whip. Whether this changes the direction of their vote I don't know. Probably unlikely.
If the DUP don't go for the deal it doesn't pass, that is pretty simple. If the DUP do go for the deal and you tally that up so everyone votes with their party (+no change with IND) you have 321-317 in favour of the deal (the Ayes have it, the Ayes have it). There probably will be rebels though, some on both sides and it could literally come down to who has more between Labour and the Tories that decides it.
Was just trying to work out the numbers for it. Labour (-Hoey), Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Tig & Greens gets to 308. Would all hinge on the Tory rebels.
Don't underestimate the possibility.why would the EU do that?
Only the EU Council could do that and I really doubt they'll all agree
See my post below. Also, it should be noted that Hoey voted against May's deal. I can't recall what her issue with that was but not a forgone conclusion she'll be voting for Boris' either. She'd be pretty happy with no deal and has no pressure to vote for this surrender agreement. She could go join Farage's crusade.
Their rush (not sure I would call it rush tbh) is to avoid a second EU Council if they can. Heads of government got better things to do than to fly to Brussels next week because of the UK's fuck-ups.Usually EU doesn't do things in such a rush. Pushing this for discussion and approval so quickly without even having a legal text for the ambassadors as the tweets suggest could point out the fact that EU really wants this done now and not delay/extend any further without any deal on the table.
I would agree Macron is pushing his luck recently, but Brexit is not similar to this situation.Don't underestimate the possibility.
Just today Macron vetoed Albania and northern Macedonia becoming EU candidates for no real reason.
Question for the Thread:
What is your desired outcome of this? Do you want Boris to get a deal before the deadline, and why?
Farage will probably call it something like that.Labour should call it the Surrender Agreement. Split the Brexit vote, win the GE
Listening to Steve Baker on Peston was embarrassing. Guy tripped himself up numerous times.
The ERG are just going back on the same readlines they issued to Theresa May.
Listening to Steve Baker on Peston was embarrassing. Guy tripped himself up numerous times.
Was just trying to work out the numbers for it. Labour (-Hoey), Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Tig & Greens gets to 308. Would all hinge on the Tory rebels.
I grew up there! I really miss the park and the harbour. Check out the Warchest if you like card games.
Level Playing Field commitments only being in the political declaration is a big change, and one that shouldn't be supported by the EU or Labour. Do they really think that Boris Johnson will keep to his word? Seriously?
Yep, one of the potential Labour rebels.I'm assuming De Piero was someone No.10 was hoping to bring over?
Businesses have already been doing the calculus on this for years now. That's why any of them in the UK who can move into the continent have been making plans to do all that.this is going to hurt us so much. businesses have to work to only plan 4 years ahead as who knows what happens after that. Could be all change. Sounds like a disaster.
Except Brexit is still going to be happening after the 31st no matter what happens.I'm going to say it will, like it or not, there isn't much appetite from the majority of the public or politicians for this to run on past 31st.
In the end, don't forget what the Political Declaration is. It is just tidying over until the real agreement. By that point, they can officially decide what they want as a relationship.Level Playing Field commitments only being in the political declaration is a big change, and one that shouldn't be supported by the EU or Labour. Do they really think that Boris Johnson will keep to his word? Seriously?
DUP 'as things stand we could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues and there is a lack of clarity on VAT'
Thanks to the DUP for giving BJ cover for a extension and being able to shaft them after the election.
This is almost ERG like throwing yourself under the bus.