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BREXIT |OT2.0| A parade of endless victories for Boris Johnson
- Thread starter Uzzy
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Ahahah. So, ironically... the EU will still "control" us.
I fucking love it. I can't wait to watch the gammons jump through hoops to justify the deal with that in it.
I fucking love it. I can't wait to watch the gammons jump through hoops to justify the deal with that in it.
This week has been exhausting. Just a torrent of speculation, each tweet or headline contradicting the last.
An amendment to include a confirmatory referendum would be good but I don't see it getting the votes.
An amendment to include a confirmatory referendum would be good but I don't see it getting the votes.
Lib Dems tabling a motion next week. Johnson being so desperate to push anything through before the 31st that we end up with a second ref would be wonderful.
Well, he's fucked it.
ERG will be baying for blood. They won't give a single shit if the whip is withdrawn, LPF was the killer for a good deal of them with May and the no dealers fucking hate it with a passion.
But won't be surprised of this was the play for BoJo anyway, concede a fuckton and cross everyone's red lines for the deal to be unpalatable to everyone this side of the pond. He can save a little face before the seemingly inevitable extension.
Was just trying to work out the numbers for it. Labour (-Hoey), Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Tig & Greens gets to 308. Would all hinge on the Tory rebels.
This is my worry - this is an insane-sounding duct taped arrangement and the lack of overwhelming support should be an indicator of that. It's clear the only reason Johnson is powering ahead with this is he's scared shitless of the Benn Act.
Regardless of the deal, there quite possibly either has to be a change in numbers from a GE or the "mandate" of a confirmatory referendum for it to go through.
why would the EU do that?
Only the EU Council could do that and I really doubt they'll all agree
Usually EU doesn't do things in such a rush. Pushing this for discussion and approval so quickly without even having a legal text for the ambassadors as the tweets suggest could point out the fact that EU really wants this done now and not delay/extend any further without any deal on the table.
See my post below. Also, it should be noted that Hoey voted against May's deal. I can't recall what her issue with that was but not a forgone conclusion she'll be voting for Boris' either. She'd be pretty happy with no deal and has no pressure to vote for this surrender agreement. She could go join Farage's crusade.
Boris has behaved so shoddily only to give way so much that they must be pissed off beyond belief, he's turned the country into a pantomime.
Don't underestimate the possibility.
Just today Macron vetoed Albania and northern Macedonia becoming EU candidates for no real reason.
Haha yeah I was using your post to do my sums. And yeah, I cut Hoey off of Labour's numbers for that reason. God knows where things are going to go from here, honestly.
I mean perhaps they are able to bully the DUP/ERG into voting for this (and there are clear signs that they are far more inclined to vote for a worse deal than May's now that it's coming from their man)... but I can't quite believe the loons are going to vote for something where we've conceded on the major concerns of the DUP & the major concerns of the ERG.
If that is the case and this deal does get agreed and fails in parliament due to a lack of support from Labour rebels, the ERG and the DUP while Farage and co are ripping into it day after day... isn't Boris doing enormous damage to himself?
If that is the case and this deal does get agreed and fails in parliament due to a lack of support from Labour rebels, the ERG and the DUP while Farage and co are ripping into it day after day... isn't Boris doing enormous damage to himself?
Their rush (not sure I would call it rush tbh) is to avoid a second EU Council if they can. Heads of government got better things to do than to fly to Brussels next week because of the UK's fuck-ups.
I don't think it relates to wanting to get rid of the UK ASAP (although I'm sure they're fed up of Brexit like most of us).
I would agree Macron is pushing his luck recently, but Brexit is not similar to this situation.
I grew up there! I really miss the park and the harbour. Check out the Warchest if you like card games.
I want Boris 'Blood Stupid' Johnson to piss off somewhere and never be heard of again.
If this is right, Johnson folded like a cheap suit.
Which would actually matter if the ERG had any principles, or Johnson could be trusted farther than you could throw him, but it's still pretty funny.
Listening to Steve Baker on Peston was embarrassing. Guy tripped himself up numerous times.
The ERG are just going back on the same readlines they issued to Theresa May.
The ERG are just going back on the same readlines they issued to Theresa May.
eh their red lines were always bullshit, the priority was replacing the remain voting may and hammond who would have used the backstop in their WA to long-term secure a closer relationship with the eu on customs with boris who has gone for a harder brexit and has secured the buccaneering global britain de-regulation carnival model
if the deal is passed they will have decisively won despite being constantly mocked
if
hoey isn't the only labour mp willing to defy the whip to vote against a second referendum, there will be at least five
It seems like a lovely place. I'm definitely gonna be spending some free time wandering around there. Though I'll be living a a bit further north (ballsbridge).
Listening to Steve Baker on Peston was embarrassing. Guy tripped himself up numerous times
Yes dude
Yes dude
It's not a question of keeping his word. It's the basis for a zero tariff free trading agreement - which makes sense. That would always be the bedrock of such an agreement, it's impossible to do one otherwise realistically.
The question is whether or not he even wants that. He and the ERG could happily vote for this in the knowledge it means nothing at all. The ERG don't even want a zero tariff free trading agreement with Europe so why bother about a requirement that applies if you do?
They could have at least used a genuine Irish voice over. That was terrible!!!
If this thing gets through Parliament because of Labour rebels I'm gonna shit myself inside out.
Kinnock is simple enough to fall for it too. I fully expect him to vote for it and then (deservedly) get drummed out of the Labour party.
Businesses have already been doing the calculus on this for years now. That's why any of them in the UK who can move into the continent have been making plans to do all that.
I don't think that's reversible no matter what happens either. If I'm a business in that situation, why not just move now and bid farewell to Brexit altogether.
Except Brexit is still going to be happening after the 31st no matter what happens.
Boris should threaten the ERG to revoke if his deal doesn't pass.
In the end, don't forget what the Political Declaration is. It is just tidying over until the real agreement. By that point, they can officially decide what they want as a relationship.
Not done yet - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHDs8dXX4AEzTvx.jpg
DUP issues statement saying the 'could not support' deal as it stands
The DUP has issued a statement fromArlene Foster and Nigel Dodds saying that "as things stand, we could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues and there is a lack of clarity on VAT.
"We will continue to work with the Government to try and get a sensible deal that works for Northern Ireland and protects the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom."
https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1184707245478678533
DUP issues statement saying the 'could not support' deal as it stands
The DUP has issued a statement fromArlene Foster and Nigel Dodds saying that "as things stand, we could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues and there is a lack of clarity on VAT.
"We will continue to work with the Government to try and get a sensible deal that works for Northern Ireland and protects the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom."
https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1184707245478678533
The problem for DUP is that Johnson's initial proposal put them on the ledge, the other unionist parties didn't support it so the DUP were left defending it on the basis of their "veto" and now that's been taken away.
btw Tony Connelly from RTE has a more detailed summary about consent which makes far worse from a DUP perspective than what the UK journos are reporting (no doubt being briefed by UK sources). Connelly has been consistently right throughout. Connelly has it as an opt-out, and even if the opt-out is triggered, Sinn Fein could pull the plug by crashing the assembly during the two year period.
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