Of course they are, anyone with that amount of money can each way every likely outcome.
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BREXIT |OT2.0| A parade of endless victories for Boris Johnson
- Thread starter Uzzy
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Oh I completely agree. Doesn't make it any less powerful though. It's the rhetoric of the papers that is interesting, especially the headlines.
Glad to see that Boris is giving money to the towns that need it the most.../s
Farage labels Yellowhammer "Project Fear mark two"...
I do wonder, that if UKSC rules against Boris, whether he'll end up saying something stupid about the judges. One can only hope.
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Haha, was just about to post this, and the tweets from Jen Williams.
More chance of them voting for Farage than Boris apparently.
The Thatcher years still sting, and the Tories being unlikeable toff bastards in general. You'd think they'd put a big gruff northern cunt up as their candidate one day, just to see how it works out.
not saying the tories are going to succeed but they don't actually need to win labour 2017 leavers over in a FPTP election where both major parties are going to be significantly down in every seat , they just need to lose fewer 2017 tories to brexit party/lib dem /not vote than labour lose to Lib Dem/ green/brexit/not vote.
if they do that and people aren't voting labour tactically they will win a lot of marginals. worried people are getting complacent about this - the hung parliament from the 2017 result is not a normal outcome. the reason may's strategy didn't work is because labour ran a great campaign when brexit was deprioritised and polled 40%. is that happening again with the lib dems on the rise?
if they do that and people aren't voting labour tactically they will win a lot of marginals. worried people are getting complacent about this - the hung parliament from the 2017 result is not a normal outcome. the reason may's strategy didn't work is because labour ran a great campaign when brexit was deprioritised and polled 40%. is that happening again with the lib dems on the rise?
Still incredible that the UK fucked it as a whole with the choice of a different electoral system, and since then, it feels like we've been on hung parliaments and very slim majorities due to FPTP, for a while now.
Imo, the turnout will be higher than expected, especially if it comes down to leave with a deal vs leave with no deal.
Lib Dems are going to take a chunk out of the Labour vote in the south, but I don't see them doing as well in the north. This could actually be beneficial to Labour as the marginals in the south tend to be CON/LIB so a swing from Labour to Lib Dem could result in the Conservatives losing seats.
The way in which labour has, and hopefully others once Oct rolls around, campaigned show they will have a very strong, effective campaign. Nothing they have done or the other oppo has said, or done so far in any way indicates they are getting complacent. In fact what they have done so far, both as a bloc and individual party show they are taking this scenario deadly serious. Talking about a second ref no matter what and having the biggest peoples campaign ever is directly addressing weak points they have or had. The fact Watson tried to do a wrecking ball speech, and largely failed, shows the leadership office (so far) knows what it needs to do to win.
I wouldn't say a few tweets, based upon stats, is a thing to be worried about.
It seems the cons are focusing too much on labour and not keeping the eye on the snp, bxp,NI and lib dems.
I don't have it to hand, but it really reminds me of the "Saboteurs" piece from earlier this year (last year? I can't remember) and I wonder if that's a coincidence.
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the lib dems and the greens did well in the north in the local elections
i mean the tories will definitely lose seats in the south and scotland but think the risk of them sweeping lots of the midlands, north and wales leave marginals is underrated. even the southern seats labour surprisingly gained in 2017 could tory too if labour doesn't do well.
i feel labour did very well in a sudden climate when boris doing no-deal was the one major threat. in that context you saw 2017 election labour re-emerge and even liberal critics like james o'brien were praising labour. there was a clear high stakes dividing line - back x to stop boris ruining it all.
i'm not convinced that will be the case after october 31st once it's delayed again - the situation where some remainers want revoke, some want labour to campaign for remain entirely, some want to do a good faith second referendum and some want a negotiated deal comes back into play and divides the remain vote. whereas "i will do brexit if you let me get rid of the surrender parliament" is a more unifying message for leavers.
"David Sassoli, the new president of the European parliament, has been holding a press conference. He said that any Brexit agreement would have to have a backstop, that the UK had not yet proposed any credible alternative, and that the European parliament would be open to a Brexit delay if the UK is going to hold an election. "
(time stamp 12:02).
Edit: also Labour commissioned a report into feasibility of a four day working week, without pay loss.
(time stamp 12:02).
Edit: also Labour commissioned a report into feasibility of a four day working week, without pay loss.
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Thought it deserves it's own post:
Belfast rejects prorogation challenge:
"Here is more from the ruling in the Belfast high court rejecting a challenge to prorogation and the government's Brexit strategy. In his written judgment Lord Justice Bernard McCloskey said:
I consider the characterisation of the subject matter of these proceedings as inherently and unmistakably political to be beyond plausible dispute.
Virtually all of the assembled evidence belongs to the world of politics, both national and supra-national.
Within the world of politics the well-recognised phenomena of claim and counterclaim, assertion and counter-assertion, allegation and denial, blow and counter-blow, alteration and modification of government policy, public statements, unpublished deliberations, posturing, strategy and tactics are the very essence of what is both countenanced and permitted in a democratic society."
(time stamp 12:41)
Update by the Guardian at 13:47:
"Here is our latest story on the judgment from the high court in Belfast on Brexit. I've corrected the earlier post on this (see 11.38am) because it said the prorogation legal challenge was thrown out. In fact, it was the argument that a no-deal Brexit would undermine the Good Friday agreement that was rejected. A claim about prorogation being unlawful was excluded on the grounds that it is being decided in the cases in England and Wales."
Belfast rejects prorogation challenge:
"Here is more from the ruling in the Belfast high court rejecting a challenge to prorogation and the government's Brexit strategy. In his written judgment Lord Justice Bernard McCloskey said:
I consider the characterisation of the subject matter of these proceedings as inherently and unmistakably political to be beyond plausible dispute.
Virtually all of the assembled evidence belongs to the world of politics, both national and supra-national.
Within the world of politics the well-recognised phenomena of claim and counterclaim, assertion and counter-assertion, allegation and denial, blow and counter-blow, alteration and modification of government policy, public statements, unpublished deliberations, posturing, strategy and tactics are the very essence of what is both countenanced and permitted in a democratic society."
(time stamp 12:41)
Update by the Guardian at 13:47:
"Here is our latest story on the judgment from the high court in Belfast on Brexit. I've corrected the earlier post on this (see 11.38am) because it said the prorogation legal challenge was thrown out. In fact, it was the argument that a no-deal Brexit would undermine the Good Friday agreement that was rejected. A claim about prorogation being unlawful was excluded on the grounds that it is being decided in the cases in England and Wales."
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But I thought Brexit wouldn't result in lower standards? Dr Fox promised!
If only you understood strategy Papa, then you would be in awe!
Ah, that's the one I was thinking of yeah.
The risk would be far greater if the bxp stuff stuck, and the gov didn't tell them to effectively suck it. Plus, labour's manifesto looks to be a good deal more radical then the 2017 on issues affecting the disaffected and left behind voters, in the north and Midlands. Pushing for a green new deal that will generate massive investment and jobs in those areas is allowing them to focus on those voters. The manifesto isn't even finished yet.
Regarding the Brexit discussion, labour has recognized what you are saying, hence the final shift about the second ref. Frankly, as sceptical as I am, I haven't seen, hear or read about nutters who think art.50 should be revoked without a second ref be some massive bloc of voters. All the other points of concern would fall fairly neatly on the leave or remain side of things.
BXP, but more importantly the nation, will fuck off the tories once the extension is agreed to. Same happened with the Tories in both the local and eu elections. Even those who I have spoken to who don't follow politics or even care for it, know sometime in OCT is the supposed leaving date.
I think the lib dems are using the parts of the twitter fpbe lot as some large bloc of voters. Even those people would just push hard for remain in a second ref. All those remain.orgs that are worth a damn, are pushing for a second ref first and foremost.
That'd be nice but it seems like something that would never happen here. In a lot of office environments you already get dirty looks just for leaving on time.
This is such an spectacular pile up I honestly believe Boris had no idea what he was getting into.
I've been getting the sense in the last few days that he genuinely thought that threatening no deal would cause the EU to cave. Until now I assumed he couldn't be that deluded and it must be part of some ploy to pretend and then get no deal by default, but his statements make it seem like he actually doesn't want to commit to no deal and was just a dumbass. Course that could be just a shift thanks to the extension law.
The plan is to get a No Deal through, then immediately call a GE before the worst parts of No Deal go into effect. This way Boris can get 5 years as PM. During this time they will find another scapegoat to blame all the bad stuff on probably Muslims or brown people and they will probably still find a way to blame the EU.
"These things would have happened anyway, even if we'd have stayed in the EU"
That'll be the line that will be trotted out for decades.
Give em a chance, geez. It's only 11:55pm on the negotiating clock, loads of time. The EU always fold late in the day. Wait and see what happens between 11:59:45 and 11:59:59!
I think you'll actually find it's Labour's fault for blocking the negotiations that would have led to a better deal.
Boris' Leave backers, Rees-cunt, Farage and friends already have. They made money in April and basically every time they calculate the £ sharply dropping. Loads of disaster capitalists behind Brexit.
As expected, and counter to the protestations of some who seemingly never tire of being incorrect, an extension to Article 50 is basically a formality on the EU side.
"Oh, the French will block it!" Non.
"Oh, the Hungarians will block it!" Nem.
If the UK asks for an extension, it will be granted.
Was looking at the graph earlier and seems about right. I do keep saying this but us folk in the north fucking hate Boris, and with an ego like that at the helm it'll probably sway people more than a robotic electrocretin like May.
*probably*
It would be foolish to put all UK eggs into that basket and hope for the best.
It's not up to the EP to grant an extension, and so far the EU Council has never given the UK the date it has requested.
If they extend I hope it's for at least two years or so. Another 3 months won't move the needle at all.
This was always the case.
It never stopped being the case.
Hell, the EU hates the backstop and would love to do away with it.
It strikes me like such a think-tank thing to do; wrapping ancient news under a layer of pretense to sell the notion of new developments.
Nothing really matters with the Prorogation case except what the supreme court say so no
Basically the same thing the EU said to Corbyn, if you're willing to commit to the single market we don't need the backstop.
But you can't be in the single market at do half the things Boris has promised Trump...
Basically the same thing the EU said to Corbyn, if you're willing to commit to the single market we don't need the backstop.
But you can't be in the single market at do half the things Boris has promised Trump...
If France or Hungary says no, then yes, they can block it. I don't believe they will do so either, Brexit is a terrible idea that will hurt the EU economy, and it's in the best interest of the EU to avoid that. That's the reason an extension will be granted, no one wants a No Deal Brexit.
Isn't that tweet implying that the Tory government are going to make life worse than the carnage brexit would cause?
What an odd statement to make
What an odd statement to make
Agreed. If France were going to do that, I think they already would have. It'll take way more than one or two of the countries to feel that way, for those countries to actually feel strongly enough to shoulder full responsibility for No Deal happening.
The UK won't get exactly what they ask for, but they will get an extension.
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