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BREXIT |OT2.0| A parade of endless victories for Boris Johnson
- Thread starter Uzzy
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Sigh. They're all so wet. On no level is Boris Johnson seeking a deal that will facilitate an orderly departure. He is seeking the impossible while making it increasingly clear that he's totally okay with leaving in a disorderly fashion. I'm sick to death of this bullshit where these MPs fuck around until it's almost too late (or, who knows this time, altogether too late).
The inside of Nick Boles head must be just all trampolines to produce the kind of mental gymnastics necessary to write that letter.
oh look another MP that knows his job is gone come election time
what's the fucking point of another extension if you don't do anything else
"Or it could lay a motion of no confidence in itself, instruct Conservatives MPs to abstain so that the motion passes"... honestly have ever heard of a bigger load of convoluted bollocks in your life. Just absolute drivel.
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Isn't that literally what he said he'd do agagahshsbsjkdidu
You have to legally change the exit date, because that date is law. So maybe that's what he means.
He's a (former) Tory. Probably won't do anything aligned with Corbyn unless it looks like Corbyn is doing what he's told. Probably scared of losing votes in his area even though the next election will probably see him off.
Yeah, but that doesn't actually change anything unless the EU agrees to it first. What parliament should be trying to legislate is to Withdraw Article 50 if there is no deal passed by X number of weeks/days before the deadline. Because they can do that unilaterally. But none of them want to bite the bullet and actually do something that makes sense they just want to look like they are.
Edit: Oh, you mean that he means Corbyn needs to agree to back and extension if Boris comes back with it? Reading it again it seems like that's what he's asking. "If Boris by some miracle sees this is a bad idea and gets an extension, Corbyn should back it without promise of an election" is a pretty dumb stance in itself but less dumb.
The SNP got shat on by everyone when they tried to do this last time round... let's see what happens next time...
Probably the same thing. Neither the Tories or Labour want to be seen as the people who "stood against the will of the people" or some dumb shit.
We just need a second IndieRef at this point tbh. SNP did what they can but it was always stacked against them. What England (and Wales) wants England (and Wales) gets.
Boles seems to think that Boris can be compelled by parliament like May was.
But I think Boris would either act in contempt of parliament or simply ask for an extension in a manner that demonstrates such bad faith that Macron and other EU leaders will not grant it.
Boris can't actually get an extension or he's finished as a politician and the Tories' vote will be halved as they defect to the Brexit Party to make brexit happen.
The problem is that you can't both seek to remove the Boris government AND seize control of the Boris's parliament to order an extension.
Getting the numbers for a VoNC will be extremely hard and getting thos esame people to vote for confidence in a new government is even harder. If that fails, it leads to what Boris wants (suspended parliament in October for a GE) without him having to take responsibility for suspending parliament at such a critical time.
Boles's idea is more likely to pass than confidence in a new government, but less likely to convince the EU to actually give an extension.
Boles's idea is also ironically more likely to lead to a Corbyn government (if it worked, which it probably wouldn't).
As a wise man once said, it'll be a shitshow.
But I think Boris would either act in contempt of parliament or simply ask for an extension in a manner that demonstrates such bad faith that Macron and other EU leaders will not grant it.
Boris can't actually get an extension or he's finished as a politician and the Tories' vote will be halved as they defect to the Brexit Party to make brexit happen.
The problem is that you can't both seek to remove the Boris government AND seize control of the Boris's parliament to order an extension.
Getting the numbers for a VoNC will be extremely hard and getting thos esame people to vote for confidence in a new government is even harder. If that fails, it leads to what Boris wants (suspended parliament in October for a GE) without him having to take responsibility for suspending parliament at such a critical time.
Boles's idea is more likely to pass than confidence in a new government, but less likely to convince the EU to actually give an extension.
Boles's idea is also ironically more likely to lead to a Corbyn government (if it worked, which it probably wouldn't).
As a wise man once said, it'll be a shitshow.
Buckethead was spot on
My best bet is border in the Irish sea to resolve the immediate problem with the Irish border. That Implies mid to long term mad max great Britain with in particular Scotland increasing its push for independence. A bit like the scene in the Thing when the spider head parts from the body. London will be in turmoil as well given its general propensity for remain
My best bet is border in the Irish sea to resolve the immediate problem with the Irish border. That Implies mid to long term mad max great Britain with in particular Scotland increasing its push for independence. A bit like the scene in the Thing when the spider head parts from the body. London will be in turmoil as well given its general propensity for remain
A (at least for the moment) hypothetical question: At the Macron press conference, Johnson stated that, regardless of what happens, the UK won't have border controls under any circumstances at the Ireland / NI border. I know that this is all posturing and playing the blame game, but what would happen if the UK crashes out with no deal on the 31st of October and the UK simply happens to do nothing at all at the Irish border (while probably expecting Ireland / the EU to act first and close the border on their side so that they can then shift the blame entirely onto the EU)?
Christ, I feel dumber already for merely envisaging that scenario, but here we are...
Christ, I feel dumber already for merely envisaging that scenario, but here we are...
massive smuggling of all and everything, massive tax evasion on imports.
the end of safety : every bit of food, medecine, spare parts failing the eu regulations will go to the uk instead of garbage bins.
you don't want that.
If the UK does nothing to defend the Irish border, then they can't apply anything to defend the GB border. Not legally anyway. The UK would be in breach of WTO commitments from day one. An open border is an open border.
This is correct though I think the word 'defend' is probably a bit confusing! My understanding is that without actual trade deals in place, we'd have no legal way to discriminate on what products are being brought into the country. For example with tariffs, if we allow imports from the EU with no tariffs, we'd have to apply the same to all imports from all areas. With an open border in Northern Ireland, neither the UK market or the EU market has integrity.
I'm guessing the intention is for us to break the rules and tell the WTO to shove it, while tolerating that we have no controls on what is coming into our country.
Lol Spiegel homepage is ruthless. Headline on the starting page:
"Johnson accomplishes nothing"
That is correct and exactly why this idea is stupid as fuck. British industry and farmers are gonna get wrecked if they have competition with 0% tariffs while they have to pay export tariffs.
"Johnson accomplishes nothing"
That is correct and exactly why this idea is stupid as fuck. British industry and farmers are gonna get wrecked if they have competition with 0% tariffs while they have to pay export tariffs.
The EU basically can't allow there to be no border because if goods get into Ireland unchecked then they can get anywhere else in the EU from there, it would effectively destroy the integrity of the single market (and the make the tariffs they impose on goods from outside the EU impossible to enforce).
But things would be much worse for the UK, any good could dock legally in Ireland and be driven into the UK with zero record of where it came from or who made it, so anything from food and pharmaceuticals to people and guns could flow over the border, how many people do you really think could walk over before the army set up and started checking passports? I bet none, and as soon as you've done that you've got border controls.
A reminder that Ian Dunt thought aloud on Twitter that James Cleverly was "usually one of the more impressive tory spokespeople".
"Here you are Boris, stick your foot up on that. Ian Dunt's going to love it".
It's less about pleasing remainers and more about creating an image for Boris and himself. Impulsive people are easy to take advantage of and Macron has already shown a penchant for that kind of stuff (see his interactions with Trump).
Again, I'm not a fan of this MASTER STRATEGIST line of thinking, but it's a very Macronesque thing to do.
I'd like to think that but he could get Johnson to take his belt down a few notches and have his trousers fall down if he wanted. This is pretty benign and a bit of a distraction. Now if he did it so that it distracted the media from anything else then yeah, it's clever.
Obligatory:
It's a shame that Macron seems to be a bit shit domestically, because I like what he's doing on the international stage.
Is nothing sacred!
Others
Already said but if you need a reminder
And, as the Daily Telegraph (paywall) is reporting this morning, even if Johnson were to find an alternative to the backstop acceptable to the EU, Tory Brexiters are telling him that that would not be enough to persuade them to vote for the withdrawal agreement because there are other aspects of it that they want to change.
David Davis
I'd argue for contingency on the money. I'd argue for tighter limits, timetable limits, sunset clauses on ECJ and things like that. I'd have a small shopping list.
It wouldn't be a ridiculous one, but one I think that any serious European Parliament and any European Council that wants a deal could go with.
If I were doing this for Boris, I would be insistent on is that they make the bill - the £39bn, the second half of it - contingent on progress on the future economic partnership.
Others
Already said but if you need a reminder
And, as the Daily Telegraph (paywall) is reporting this morning, even if Johnson were to find an alternative to the backstop acceptable to the EU, Tory Brexiters are telling him that that would not be enough to persuade them to vote for the withdrawal agreement because there are other aspects of it that they want to change.
David Davis
I'd argue for contingency on the money. I'd argue for tighter limits, timetable limits, sunset clauses on ECJ and things like that. I'd have a small shopping list.
It wouldn't be a ridiculous one, but one I think that any serious European Parliament and any European Council that wants a deal could go with.
If I were doing this for Boris, I would be insistent on is that they make the bill - the £39bn, the second half of it - contingent on progress on the future economic partnership.
The most pathetic thing is this is just a cover for the small chance that the backstop does get 'resolved'. If they got all of this they'd still be against it.
Fucksake. More UK jewels basically stolen because of Brexit.
SHOWS CONFIDENCE IN THE UK POST BREXIT
SHOWS CONFIDENCE IN THE UK POST BREXIT
Cobham is a biggie. It's super entrenched in the defence sector and their products are all over the world. I don't think it's related to Brexit, but the weak pound may have helped.
In his Rothschild banker days he learned to handle rich and powerful people.
That's also why he has problems connecting with common or lower class people, they might as well be from a different universe.
When I say "because of brexit", I quite literally mean because you can now buy UK companies at firesale prices due to the weak pound.
Happened a lot right after the Brexit vote too.
It's one of the things that make me wonder if half of the hardcore leavers among the Tories are bluffing. Disaster capitalism may be tempting, but there's a chance that the damage may be too extense. The manufacturing base would be ravaged, but even large management firms could be hit much harder than anticipated if the pound tanks.
Imagine a situation in which British firms can't access public tenders for the privatisation of services because they don't have the liquidity. Cunning Leavers with the financial capacity may be betting on it, because they are people who will find the way to make a tidy profit even in the most dire circumstances, but how many others are hoping for a career in the private sector once they graduate from politics? Surely enough many of them know that their days will be counted after Brexit and plan to use it as a springboard for a board position or an external advisor role.
I feel like most of this article could have been written any time in the last 3 years.
You could argue that May was never really going to allow No Deal. However Johnson has assembled a team of the worst people imaginable to who really don't give a fuck about the consequences of No Deal with Cummings as the puppet master I honestly think he will lead us over the clff edge if Parliament don't do something to stop it.
So I see Boris is saying to the us to stop the tariffs on China and visa versa like they will listen to him when he literally has no cards
Honestly this feels exactly like the sort of thing from exactly the sort of person Trump would actually listen to and change his mind from.
That would make me believe it was a setup or something, the only thing on Trump's mind is himself followed by the US looking tough for his supporters. Making Boris look like the sensible grown up in the room will only come back to bite the relationship.
A pretty ruthless splash of cold water in the FT, for those brexiteers thinking Ireland can easily be brought to heel... with some eye watering stats on how Ireland has transformed and decoupled from the UK since joining the EU.
The podcast on the same topic makes the same points, but is very informative as well:
Does Boris think the public would thank him after doing this. If he forced us out of the EU in this manner it would be very bad for him and his party I would think. I'm pretty sure its just posturing though, like Boris saying parliament cannot stop no deal, its like he's egging them on to stop him, he knows its his only way out.
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