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Veliladon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,557
It's a trap for a no deal Brexit and one of the holes in the Benn Act. It caves to the EU to get the meaningful vote passed and then the PM will do nothing to pass the rest. Don't need to send the extension letter if the MV passes, no deal unless the rest of the legislation passes. It's a god damned trap and it has the stench of Cummings all over it.
 

Protome

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,677
I thought this deal was supposed to be worse than Mays which everybody hated? why would the hard brexiteers go for it?
Because it might be their last chance. Remain at least theoretically becomes more popular by the day as more young voters come of age, No Deal will always have the vast majority of parliament against it and trying their hardest to thwart it and this or May's deal are the only deals they can get without giving up some more red lines in negotiations.
 

Funky Papa

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,694
Boris will finally deliver Brexit by turning the UK into ruletaker with no say in EU politics and laws, but also setting the scene for the reunification of Ireland.

Such an improvement over May's deal.

Watch out for the Brexit Party going thermonuclear on the stop.
 

Kodama4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,933
Parliament will just block it anyways. Expect extension part 3 and general election in the next 3 months
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
1,134
The chances of a Johnson government allowing that are minimal to nil.

Tory HQ has calculated that a second referendum would be more harmful to them than No Deal- they'd sooner whip against their own deal than wave that through.

Getting that many Tory rebels and the entirety of the DUP and the ERG onboard is a pipe dream as it stands.

Might not be their choice.
 

Ushojax

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,927
For Boris this deal is perfect. Now he he has every Brexit base covered. He got a deal, it will be Labour's fault if it doesn't pass. What's actually in the des doesn't matter, he never gave a shit about that.

This deal leaves plenty of room to turn us into a poor man's Lichtenstein which is all his party cares about.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,427
Funny how the eventual deal ended up being exactly what everyone said it would be from the start, GB out, NI in. Time to mentally prepare for the incoming stream of hypocrisy from every 'unionist' Tory MP who said this was unthinkable 3 weeks ago.

Seems like labour will try and tack on a peoples vote...super Saturday indeed. I think I'm going to spend it sat on the allotment in the rain paying zero attention to anything that's happening.
 

Tzarscream

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
2,945
Funny how the eventual deal ended up being exactly what everyone said it would be from the start, GB out, NI in. Time to mentally prepare for the incoming stream of hypocrisy from every 'unionist' Tory MP who said this was unthinkable 3 weeks ago.

Seems like labour will try and tack on a peoples vote...super Saturday indeed. I think I'm going to spend it sat on the allotment in the rain paying zero attention to anything that's happening.
You'll be living off that allotment soon!
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,282
If labour votes this down they're gonna get shreded in the election that is coming.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
I think the EU will play hard ball over an extension but will ultimately do one when the request comes in on Saturday if the deal doesn't pass.

From an EU point of view a GE now has no risk

1. Johnson gets a majority running on his deal: they get this deal
2. There's a hung parliament, the EU can pull the plug on an extension
3. Labour get in in a coalition: the EU get a better deal or remain.
 

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,202
We already had a deal between the EU and the UK government. The UK parliament however repeatedly voted "no".

What are the odds that both the EU countries (unless hat already happened?) AND the UK parliament are going to ratify this new deal?
 

Eoin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,103
Hahaha, they genuinely just fucked off the dup and decided to agree a deal without them.
It seems so, yes. That's been signposted for a while now though. Of all the parties or polities that have some kind of stake in this deal, the DUP's long-term position is the weakest. The other players - the Conservative Party (and, separately, the ERG), the EU, Ireland - none of these are likely to be in a radically different position within a few years. The DUP's current position of political strength within Westminster ends the picosecond a new election is called.
 

Brotherhood93

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,775
Quoting my own post from the Brexit thread.

Let me break it down a bit more though and hopefully people can use these numbers to formulate their own hypothesis:

Tories: 288 (-1 for deputy speaker)
Labour: 245 (-2 for deputy speakers)
SNP: 35
Lib Dems: 19
DUP: 10
TIG: 5
Plaid Cymru: 4
Greens: 1

Independents who voted for MV3: 24
Independents who voted against MV3: 10
Independent who abstained in MV3: 1 (Supports Brexit)

Of those Independents who voted for MV3, 20 had the Tory whip at the time. Of those who voted against MV3, 2 had the Labour whip at the time and 3 had the Tory whip. Whether this changes the direction of their vote I don't know. Probably unlikely.

If the DUP don't go for the deal it doesn't pass, that is pretty simple. If the DUP do go for the deal and you tally that up so everyone votes with their party (+no change with IND) you have 321-317 in favour of the deal (the Ayes have it, the Ayes have it). There probably will be rebels though, some on both sides and it could literally come down to who has more between Labour and the Tories that decides it.

Without DUP support you would need ALL Tory MPs to back it and around 9 Labour rebels, which they won't do if the LPF isn't legally binding. Seems this deal is already dead unless something significant changes.
 

Deleted member 862

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,646
You know if the government were smart they're try and get out ahead of the momentum building behind a second ref and push it themselves instead of it being a big negative and having to defend the deal.
 

Geoff

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,115
German TV interviewed some Leave voters about Brexit. They are very conviced that everything will get better after a No deal Brexit and the media are only doing fear-mongering.

We get these vox pops all the time. Always talk to folk wandering around northern shopping precincts on a wednesday afternoon when all the normies are in work. People with two heads and three braincells jabbering on about "we just need to leave". Fucking morons basically.
 

Acorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,972
Scotland
It seems so, yes. That's been signposted for a while now though. Of all the parties or polities that have some kind of stake in this deal, the DUP's long-term position is the weakest. The other players - the Conservative Party (and, separately, the ERG), the EU, Ireland - none of these are likely to be in a radically different position within a few years. The DUP's current position of political strength within Westminster ends the picosecond a new election is called.
Never hearing from Sammy fucking Wilson again is the only good thing that will come out of an election.
 

Deleted member 31104

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,572
Quoting my own post from the Brexit thread.



Without DUP support you would need ALL Tory MPs to back it and around 9 Labour rebels, which they won't do if the LPF isn't legally binding. Seems this deal is already dead unless something significant changes.

Remember Rudd, Hammond, Gauke and Stewart were all in cabinet. I could see Stewart voting for this, maybe Gauke and Rudd but Hammond is a big ask.
 

Deleted member 34788

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 29, 2017
3,545
Oh holy fucking shit! Just read the DUP has lost its veto in full.

Saturday is going to be a fucking bloodbath against bojo. HAHAHA, its may 2.0, right down to burning those bridges to the votes needed for a deal to pass.
 

Deleted member 862

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,646
BJ calling the DUP's bluff?

Very risky.

what could possibly go wrong

jN8IDBom.jpg
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,625
I don't see what the path forward for this deal is. The DUP won't be convinced but attaching a referendum to the deal might be enough for everyone else so that wouldn't matter. So there's an extension for a referendum in that event. The deal shouldn't pass without a referendum but the numbers are up in the air for how much.
 

Puroresu_kid

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,465
Labour are in a tricky spot here. I don't see how they can possibly argue about negotiating their own deal. People won't want to see this whole thing dragged out again after a deal has been announced again.

The only thing Labour can do is argue this deal needs to be put to the people.

The government however will of course argue its this deal or no deal. Remain isn't an option. I can see Labour MPs voting for with this if the alternative is no deal.
 

Protome

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,677
Labour are in a tricky spot here. I don't see how they can possibly argue about negotiating their own deal. People won't want to see this whole thing dragged out again after a deal has been announced again.

The only thing Labour can do is argue this deal needs to be put to the people.

The government however will of course argue its this deal or no deal. Remain isn't an option. I can see Labour MPs voting for with this if the alternative is no deal.
The government can't argue that it's this deal or no deal though because they legally need to ask for an extension.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,982
I think EU will push hard to get this deal voted this time. It's practically what they wanted from the beginning and the best deal to be made if freedom of movement is a red line. Labour couldn't get any better deal unless they accept freedom of movement and at that point what's the point of leaving anyway?

I also think DUP will be thrown under the media bus.
 
Oct 31, 2017
4,333
Unknown
I think I like this new tactic by the EU if I'm reading this right before my first coffee.
It sounds like they're going to operate in good faith as if the UK gov is honestly speaking for the UK and leaving it up to the people of the UK to hold the government responsible.
 

Brotherhood93

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,775
Remember Rudd, Hammond, Gauke and Stewart were all in cabinet. I could see Stewart voting for this, maybe Gauke and Rudd but Hammond is a big ask.
It's best not to put too much faith in Tories voting against it though. Grieve, Greening and Bebb are the only ones I'm pretty sure will vote it down, as they did MV3. The problem with Tories refusing to back it is that their choices are pretty much this deal, no deal or a Labour/remain coalition government. The likes of Stewart and Gauke want to leave with a deal. The only reason I see Stewart voting it down is because passing it might hurt his chances as London Mayor. Hammond still wants the Tory whip back so will probably back it. Rudd could go either way.
 
OP
OP
Uzzy

Uzzy

Gabe’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,078
Hull, UK
NI is de facto getting hived off to stay in the EU. The DUP will never ever accept this.
 
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