Let me break it down a bit more though and hopefully people can use these numbers to formulate their own hypothesis:
Tories: 288 (-1 for deputy speaker)
Labour: 245 (-2 for deputy speakers)
SNP: 35
Lib Dems: 19
DUP: 10
TIG: 5
Plaid Cymru: 4
Greens: 1
Independents who voted for MV3: 24
Independents who voted against MV3: 10
Independent who abstained in MV3: 1 (Supports Brexit)
Of those Independents who voted for MV3, 20 had the Tory whip at the time. Of those who voted against MV3, 2 had the Labour whip at the time and 3 had the Tory whip. Whether this changes the direction of their vote I don't know. Probably unlikely.
If the DUP don't go for the deal it doesn't pass, that is pretty simple. If the DUP do go for the deal and you tally that up so everyone votes with their party (+no change with IND) you have 321-317 in favour of the deal (the Ayes have it, the Ayes have it). There probably will be rebels though, some on both sides and it could literally come down to who has more between Labour and the Tories that decides it.