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BREXIT |OT3| I'd Rather Be Inert in a Ditch
- Thread starter Uzzy
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Johnson turning the screws on the DUP as we speak.
If there isn't by Saturday, the deal's as dead as a doorpost- the ERG won't go out in force for it, and there's zero chance that enough Labour rebels rescue it.
If there's DUP support, there's a chance it passes Parliament, but not a 100% certainty.
If there isn't by Saturday, the deal's as dead as a doorpost- the ERG won't go out in force for it, and there's zero chance that enough Labour rebels rescue it.
Projections for this are even worse than the ones for May's deal (but not as bad as No Deal.)
A lot of poor people are going to die, a lot of rich people are going to get richer.
I was thinking this could be both. There's clearly gonna be a lot of new events happening this weekend, and OT2.0 was getting close to the limit anyway. If we're back to delay by Monday then shoving it into the community forum makes sense, but until then, we're into the endgame.
I imagine they're looking to railroad them into the deal by offering a big bung and threatening to blame them for thwarting Brexit.
If Labour and the Lib Dems get an amendmend added for a second referendum it could pass without the DUP.
Yeah, "sounds like".
Gonna be a shit deal, shit Prime Minister, shit Brexit, shit election, shit whatever it is. It's all so defeating, they need to just hurry up and revoke it or start the campaign to rejoin already so I can at least have some hope it'll be reversed in my lifetime. Truly the king of all messes and all from something that was only advisory, it's one of the greatest self-owns in modern political history.
Tory Rebels are split, a few have said no or second ref needed, some have said they would, some have said they need to see the full text.
without the DUP they don't have the numbers so are they going to allow a second ref? I don't see any other way
Hahaha, they genuinely just fucked off the dup and decided to agree a deal without them.
What the genuine fuck. Bojo is shitting bricks to do this move, he kills the deal when this goes ahead.
Hold on to your butts, this weekend is going to be a sight to se.
What the genuine fuck. Bojo is shitting bricks to do this move, he kills the deal when this goes ahead.
Hold on to your butts, this weekend is going to be a sight to se.
If Labour gets the referendum tied to this, is it sort of in everyone's interest that this crappy deal is the thing on the ballot, rather than the inevitably softer brexit deal labour would secure? Or is it more likely to get leave folks and no dealers on board if it's harder?
Some rumours that the DUP is split 7/3 for, which would give it a chance. I think the best for Johnson I've seen is a majority of 14 but that relied on only Rudd and Hammond of the ex-Tories (who voted for the deal) voting against, the DUP on board and 6 Labour Leavers.
Either this is amassive stupid gamble by the government or they have some secret votes up their sleeve.
History tells us that their secret plans only ever amount to bin full of nothing.
History tells us that their secret plans only ever amount to bin full of nothing.
Afaik, OTs always start here and are then moved to Hangouts by the mods.
Boris has played his cards by going for a deal, I think. He can't really go back to his No Deal posture after playing ball with the EU, and so he's all in on getting the deal through the door at this point.
Pretty much. That'll give cover to Labour Leavers.
Ultimately though I think the EU will not go no deal if there's a GE. They've basically set the baseline at this deal.
The chances of a Johnson government allowing that are minimal to nil.
Tory HQ has calculated that a second referendum would be more harmful to them than No Deal- they'd sooner whip against their own deal than wave that through.
Getting that many Tory rebels and the entirety of the DUP and the ERG onboard is a pipe dream as it stands.
Because it gives them more of what they want, regulatory independence.
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