Can anyone explain what's happening in Venezuela? Dictator Maduro hated by majority but, Trump Admin / VP Pence and Bolsonaro backing opposition?

pigeon · Jan 25, 2019

SaveWeyard said:
Guiado has been the "leader" of his party for 3 weeks, I don't think much is known of him in particular. And I put "leader" in quotes because the real leader of the party is Leopoldo Lopez, who is currently under house arrest.

Sure, that makes sense. But a lot of people seem to have super well-formed opinions of him already! I would like to understand why, directly from them. Unfortunately most of them seem to now be banned, which probably won't help.

JonnyDBrit said:
It's primarily the fact that Guaidó has the headline support of Trump and Bolsonaro, and thus the assumption is that he must agree with them (or them with him) on some level, rather than it being a case of appealing to a global superpower and a regional power. That could of course make him liable to be influenced by them if he were to more directly receive aid from them - financial and/or military assistance is rarely free after all - but as of yet nothing has specifically happened as far as I can tell.

Are you saying this as somebody who does think he's far right, or is this your gloss of what you think they think?

SaveWeyard · Jan 25, 2019

ZealousD said:
Is his party far-right at all then? Because at a quick search it seems centrist or center-left at worst.

I think it's a fool's errand to try to assign any of the opposition parties an identity, other than shared hatred of Maduro.

Tfritz · Jan 25, 2019

SaveWeyard said:
I think it's a fool's errand to try to assign any of the opposition parties an identity, other than shared hatred of Maduro.

I can see that being the case for trying to describe the coalition as a whole, but surely the individual parties therein must have some form of coherent perspective?

JonnyDBrit · Jan 25, 2019

pigeon said:
Are you saying this as somebody who does think he's far right, or is this your gloss of what you think they think?

As someone who's cautious of the scenario - rather than the man - specifically because of that association (even if most likely purely political, for the reason as ascribed), has seen it cited often enough in this thread - including a misunderstanding as to what the actual extent of Trump's 'backing' currently is - and I recall at least one instance that specifically questioned how anyone could associate with such figures unless it was specifically an alignment on ideology (rather than, again, an appeal to potential and relevent allies in opposing Maduro, which seems more like Guaidó's pressing focus).

Around the 21st page you'll find some further discussion with regards to what Guaidó's politics might be and what his current backing might imply - whether or not it's accurate is another matter, but demonstrative of why I think that association, more than any actual decision making, has influenced people's perception of the man.

Kirblar · Jan 25, 2019

Tfritz said:
I can see that being the case for trying to describe the coalition as a whole, but surely the individual parties therein must have some form of coherent perspective?

In a situation like this it's gonna be an incoherent mess because there are going to be multiple factions in the opposition with a wide range of different political views. Herding cats is easy when there's a singular opponent.

z1ggy · Jan 25, 2019

Kirblar said:
In a situation like this it's gonna be an incoherent mess because there are going to be multiple factions in the opposition with a wide range of different political views. Herding cats is easy when there's a singular opponent.

It will take several years for the country to recover and it will need international help

Tfritz · Jan 25, 2019

Kirblar said:
In a situation like this it's gonna be an incoherent mess because there are going to be multiple factions in the opposition with a wide range of different political views. Herding cats is easy when there's a singular opponent.

it should be possible to discuss the positions and views of Guaido's Popular Will party while understanding that the Democratic Unity Roundtable's coalition contains more diverse view points who joined together because they're anti-Maduro.

Kirblar · Jan 25, 2019

Tfritz said:
it should be possible to discuss the positions and views of Guaido's Popular Will party while understanding that the Democratic Unity Roundtable's coalition contains more diverse view points who joined together because they're anti-Maduro.

It is, but they're also relatively small as of the last legit election as Venezuela has a very fractured parliament.

Deleted member 22490 · Jan 25, 2019

From WaPo

President Trump's bold decision to throw U.S. support behind a self-declared opposition government in Venezuela carries risks for a president whose foreign policy is staked on prizing American interests over others and keeping the country out of foreign quagmires.

In support of the government declared by opposition leader Juan Guaidó, U.S. officials refused to rule out military action or far-reaching economic measures, including an oil embargo that would harm U.S. business.

"I think that speaks for itself," national security adviser John Bolton said when asked Thursday what Trump meant by saying "all options" are available to him.

pigeon · Jan 25, 2019

Helio said:
From WaPo

In fairness, Trump regularly refuses to rule out anything he's asked to rule out, which is part of the general problem with him. The fact that we won't rule it out does not, necessarily, imply that we are actually thinking about doing it. I can't blame other countries from reacting as though we might be, though.

ChippyTurtle · Jan 25, 2019

ibyea said:
Oh god, Rubio should just fuck off.

Rubio is actually really important as a Senator from Florida, he represents a significant Venezuelan population in the U.S that is probably majority anti-Maduro. Heres a article that talks about Rubio's role in promoting the current direction of the U.S in regards to Venezuela.

Also from the AP, a article exclusive about the buildup to Guaido declaring himself interim president. For those of you believing that U.S involvement was minimal, this should dispel that notion, and for those believing that U.S involvement is not necessary, you should also read this. At the end of the day, the U.S is still the preeminent world power, no shit they need to be involved in Venezuela, especially for any sanctions or measures against the Maduro regime to be effective, not to mention the simple fact that the U.S remains the largest trading partner with Venezuela and is the refining source for Venezuelan oil and therefore is a massive lever to effect Venezuela.

ChippyTurtle · Jan 25, 2019

Russian mercs believed to be backed by the Russian government have arrived to protect Maduro, and Rubio points out that if the Venezuelan military was completely in-step with Maduro, that they wouldn't be needed. The Bank of England has denied a request from Maduro to withdraw 1.2 billion due to U.S requests.

Iloelemen · Jan 25, 2019

Kirblar said:
Nice to know now that she's the new Tulsi Gabbard.

Ultra-homophobic authoritarian lover Ilhan Omar?

Kirblar · Jan 25, 2019

ChippyTurtle said:
Rubio is actually really important as a Senator from Florida, he represents a significant Venezuelan population in the U.S that is probably majority anti-Maduro. Heres a article that talks about Rubio's role in promoting the current direction of the U.S in regards to Venezuela.

Also from the AP, a article exclusive about the buildup to Guaido declaring himself interim president. For those of you believing that U.S involvement was minimal, this should dispel that notion, and for those believing that U.S involvement is not necessary, you should also read this. At the end of the day, the U.S is still the preeminent world power, no shit they need to be involved in Venezuela, especially for any sanctions or measures against the Maduro regime to be effective, not to mention the simple fact that the U.S remains the largest trading partner with Venezuela and is the refining source for Venezuelan oil and therefore is a massive lever to effect Venezuela.

Rubio is Cuban American and Cuban-Americans here deeply detest the Castro government and "communist"/"socialist" dictators. (big gigantic airquotes around those specific quote marks) After Funkypapa's post earlier in the thread detailing how Venezuela and Cuba became heavily interlinked under a LOT about Rubio's sudden spine and outspoken behavior became obvious- it's triggering both the ostensibly leftist dictator thing AND the direct animosity towards Castro.

Iloelemen said:
Ultra-homophobic authoritarian lover Ilhan Omar?

The homophobia stuff was trumped up by an insane twitter account that's been targeting her, I was just going for the "loves authoritarians" thing.

ChippyTurtle · Jan 25, 2019

Kirblar said:
Rubio is Cuban American and Cuban-Americans here deeply detest the Castro government and "communist"/"socialist" dictators. (big gigantic airquotes around those specific quote marks) After Funkypapa's post earlier in the thread detailing how Venezuela and Cuba became heavily interlinked under a LOT about Rubio's sudden spine and outspoken behavior became obvious- it's triggering both the ostensibly leftist dictator thing AND the direct animosity towards Castro.

The homophobia stuff was trumped up by an insane twitter account that's been targeting her, I was just going for the "loves authoritarians" thing.

Sudden? No, hes been firmly anti-Maduro and anti-Chavez since he got into office in 2011.

anthro · Jan 25, 2019

ChippyTurtle said:
Russian mercs believed to be backed by the Russian government have arrived to protect Maduro, and Rubio points out that if the Venezuelan military was completely in-step with Maduro, that they wouldn't be needed.

I'm sure they're doing what they can to communicate with any possible collaborators in the military, but I'd imagine this Rubio tweet could serve the purpose of broadcasting to anybody listening that the United States is aware there may be uncertainty with the officers and inviting them to make contact. Then again, the military has mostly been purged of anti-Maduro people. Most of them are assuredly already getting a cut of state money. The corruption will continue if there is a turn on Maduro because it will probably involve some promises to the participants. But I guess that depends on their position, if they feel they are in a weak position the promises may simply be that they get to keep their money and freedom.

NewDonkStrong · Jan 25, 2019

Zedelima said:
Wait...people really think here that this all about Maduro being from the "left"?

Are we taking out all the human rights violations, people being murdered, faked elections and people starving from the equation? This fucker is a dictador in a facke democracy, where he faked more than once the elections
If so, shame on you era, defending someone just because they are from the "left". None of you care about human beings

Cubans will often, repeatedly say Castro is their Hitler, meanwhile SOME left leaning Americans will talk about how Castro had some good ideas.

ChippyTurtle · Jan 25, 2019

anthro said:
I'm sure they're doing what they can to communicate with any possible collaborators in the military, but I'd imagine this Rubio tweet could serve the purpose of broadcasting to anybody listening that the United States is aware there may be uncertainty with the officers and inviting them to make contact. Then again, the military has mostly been purged of anti-Maduro people. Most of them are assuredly already getting a cut of state money. The corruption will continue if there is a turn on Maduro because it will probably involve some promises to the participants. But I guess that depends on their position, if they feel they are in a weak position the promises may simply be that they get to keep their money and freedom.

The Rubio tweet to the military is not a recent thing either, but probably the high-ranks are unchangeable, like Funky Papa said, and this article goes into depth on, Cuban control over the government is pretty solid. The hope is for mid-level and lower ranks to either revolt against their superiors or refuse their orders.
Also, Elliot Abrams has been appointed Envoy to Venezuela, hes got some baggage to say the least. I think this does signal a continued tough approach to Venezuela through.

Kirblar · Jan 25, 2019

ChippyTurtle said:
The Rubio tweet to the military is not a recent thing either, but probably the high-ranks are unchangeable, like Funky Papa said, and this article goes into depth on, Cuban control over the government is pretty solid. The hope is for mid-level and lower ranks to either revolt against their superiors or refuse their orders.
Also, Elliot Abrams has been appointed Envoy to Venezuela, hes got some baggage to say the least. I think this does signal a continued tough approach to Venezuela through.

Baggage is an understatement and he seems like pretty much the worst possible choice holy shit.

Iloelemen · Jan 25, 2019

Mike Pompeo just named Eliot Abrams his new special envoy for Venezuela. Abrams plead guilty to withholding information from Congress about the Iran-Contra affair. Pompeo says Abrams will be in charge of "all things related to our efforts to restore Democracy in Venezuela."

poklane · Jan 25, 2019

Yeah, Elliott Abrams is quite the stupid appointment, this is only gonna give legitimacy to people who say this is a US-backed coup attempt.

Iloelemen · Jan 25, 2019

Tomohawk · Jan 25, 2019

I dont trust trump admin to be honest actors and there fore distrustful of Guaido. How possible is a new election being negotiated.

The Omega Man · Jan 25, 2019

Iloelemen said:

He'll receive many calls from all the countries that acknowledge him as the interim president, which exeed the ones that recognize Maduro, I hope you are not impliying that that tweet confirms that his an alt-right USA lapdog trained by the CIA to sell Venezuelan ritches to uncle Sam.

Serpens007 · Jan 25, 2019

The guy behind the Death Squads in Latin American countries is a receipt that the US is backing a coup already?

Hasseigaku · Jan 25, 2019

Having Iran-Contra fuckers and John Bolton for this thing, even if it is the right thing to do, makes me immediately suspicious of it.

I wonder if opposition leaders are promising sweet, sweet oil rights to certain people in exchange for their support.

Serpens007 · Jan 25, 2019

The Omega Man said:
He'll receive many calls from all the countries that acknowledge him as the interim president, which exeed the ones that recognize Maduro, I hope you are not impliying that that tweet confirms that his an alt-right USA lapdog trained by the CIA to sell Venezuelan ritches to uncle Sam.

He wasn't even the interim president yet

Deleted member 22490 · Jan 25, 2019

Iloelemen said:

The night before Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president of Venezuela, the opposition leader received a phone call from Vice President Mike Pence.

Mr. Pence pledged that the U.S. would back Mr. Guaidó if he seized the reins of government from Nicolás Maduro by invoking a clause in the South American country's constitution, a senior administration official said.

That late-night call set in motion a plan that had been developed in secret over the preceding several weeks, accompanied by talks between U.S. officials, allies, lawmakers and key Venezuelan opposition figures, including Mr. Guaidó himself.

It culminated in the 35-year-old Mr. Guaidó's declaration Wednesday that Mr. Maduro's government was illegitimate and that Mr. Guaidó, president of the country's National Assembly, was assuming power in accordance with the country's constitution.

Iloelemen · Jan 25, 2019

The Omega Man said:
He'll receive many calls from all the countries that acknowledge him as the interim president, which exeed the ones that recognize Maduro, I hope you are not impliying that that tweet confirms that his an alt-right USA lapdog trained by the CIA to sell Venezuelan ritches to uncle Sam.

Course not.
Guiado is center-left.

It's possible to say that Guiado is a legitimately doing things in good faith while at the same time to say that the US isn't totally acting in good faith (especially given the US's history).

Also, Pence called him before his announcement of him being interim president.

sphagnum · Jan 25, 2019

TheOnionPrince said:
Having Iran-Contra fuckers and John Bolton for this thing, even if it is the right thing to do, makes me immediately suspicious of it.

I wonder if opposition leaders are promising sweet, sweet oil rights to certain people in exchange for their support.

I would be shocked if they aren't. They need all the support they can get, and reprivatizing oil would be their biggest tool to use.

manchego obfuscator · Jan 25, 2019

poklane said:
Yeah, Elliott Abrams is quite the stupid appointment, this is only gonna give legitimacy to people who say this is a US-backed coup attempt.

not stupid, it's perfectly reflective of the underlying ideology of those in power who want the US to exert a heavier hand there

anyway, can someone tell me if there's some context that excuses this

Kirblar · Jan 25, 2019

manchego obfuscator said:
not stupid, it's perfectly reflective of the underlying ideology of those in power who want the US to exert a heavier hand there

anyway, can someone tell me if there's some context that excuses this

Yes, this is standard diplomatic boilerplate, you have a similar (almost certainly not written by Tump) Trump tweet regarding the new Mexican President, who very much is not on the right.

Iloelemen · Jan 25, 2019

manchego obfuscator said:
not stupid, it's perfectly reflective of the underlying ideology of those in power who want the US to exert a heavier hand there

anyway, can someone tell me if there's some context that excuses this

People are saying that it's totally normal geopolitics to congratulate a president after his win, which is true enough.

Adding the line on how Bolsonaro is an advocate of Human Rights though is just..... NO.

Iloelemen · Jan 25, 2019

Kirblar said:
Yes, this is standard diplomatic boilerplate, you have a similar (almost certainly not written by Tump) Trump tweet regarding the new Mexican President, who very much is not on the right.

I think it's pretty disappointing that it is standard diplomatic boilerplate to call a leader someone who is "committed to human rights", even if the leader is the direct opposite of that and is a fascist.

Kirblar · Jan 25, 2019

Iloelemen said:
I think it's pretty disappointing that it is standard diplomatic boilerplate to call a leader someone who is "committed to human rights", even if the leader is the direct opposite of that and is a fascist.

Given the situation he and the country are I'm not really gonna hold trying to use diplomatic flattery on stupid narcissistic a-holes like Trump/Bolisnaro against him.

The Omega Man · Jan 25, 2019

Iloelemen said:
I think it's pretty disappointing that it is standard diplomatic boilerplate to call a leader someone who is "committed to human rights", even if the leader is the direct opposite of that and is a fascist.

Sure, but we should focus on Maduro's killing Venezuelans by starvation and lack of medicine for the time being instead of trying to shift the attention to discussing the merits of an iterim president by a tweet. I think the most pressing matter is to end Venezuelans suffering at the hand of this attroucious regime but I feel that some posters are trying to shift the narrative and deviate from the the subject at hand which should be Maduro's regime is killing Venezuelans left and right and his illegimate Goverment needs to go asap.

Deleted member 8583 · Jan 25, 2019

Iloelemen said:
I think it's pretty disappointing that it is standard diplomatic boilerplate to call a leader someone who is "committed to human rights", even if the leader is the direct opposite of that and is a fascist.

There are exceptions like the current Canada administration:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-canada-statement-brazil-far-right-1.4882380

But the comparison is not the same. In the Trump one, he, as president of the USA is congratulating the new elected president of Mexico; on the other it is a member of the Venezuela government, Juan Guaidó congratulating a new president and saying he is an example for human rights. So it is more than a simple congratulations. Does that means that Guaidó is far-right? No, at worst he might be opportunistic, but then again most politicians are.

Iloelemen · Jan 25, 2019

Devenir Ácrata said:
There are exceptions like the current Canada administration:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tasker-canada-statement-brazil-far-right-1.4882380

But the comparison is not the same. In the Trump one, he, as president of the USA is congratulating the new elected president of Mexico; on the other it is a member of the Venezuela government, Juan Guaidó congratulating a new president and saying he is an example for human rights. So it is more than a simple congratulations. Does that means that Guaidó is far-right? No, at worst he might be opportunistic, but then again most politicians are.

I think he is getting the goods of Bolsonaro for the best sake of the country which correct, doesn't automatically make him a far-right fascist.

BigWinnie1 · Jan 25, 2019

Iloelemen · Jan 25, 2019

BigWinnie1 said:

Yeah, this is something that should be known to those saying Mauduro was "fairly" elected which sadly, a lot of lefty people are.

BringBackSonics · Jan 25, 2019

BigWinnie1 said:

That's well stated. Plus the guy is the LATAM editor, so I think he knows what he is talking about

Deleted member 19003 · Jan 25, 2019

BigWinnie1 said:

But US has a history in Latamerica, Trump! and something something imperialism.

BringBackSonics · Jan 25, 2019

Ilhan's reponse to signal boosting Rania

Ichthyosaurus · Jan 25, 2019

pigeon said:
Sure, that makes sense. But a lot of people seem to have super well-formed opinions of him already! I would like to understand why, directly from them. Unfortunately most of them seem to now be banned, which probably won't help.

You wouldn't get any answers if they were here. I know, I personally asked and got nothing.

Serpens007 · Jan 25, 2019

Cas said:
But US has a history in Latamerica, Trump! and something something imperialism.

The Omega Man said:
Sure, but we should focus on Maduro's killing Venezuelans by starvation and lack of medicine for the time being instead of trying to shift the attention to discussing the merits of an iterim president by a tweet. I think the most pressing matter is to end Venezuelans suffering at the hand of this attroucious regime but I feel that some posters are trying to shift the narrative and deviate from the the subject at hand which should be Maduro's regime is killing Venezuelans left and right and his illegimate Goverment needs to go asap.

Yeah so let's support the US appoiting someone with history of backing coups and attrocities in Latam to bring democracy in Venezuela, that will surely end well.

BringBackSonics · Jan 25, 2019

Holy shit this Rania character is a piece of work.

jett · Jan 25, 2019

BringBackSonics said:
Ilhan's reponse to signal boosting Rania

How was she elected to congress, exactly?

The Omega Man · Jan 25, 2019

BigWinnie1 said:

But Guaido's tweet, let's focus on that instead! or US supporting Guaido (as many many other countries) it's US that's trouble, let's focus on that instead, Venezuelans can keep dying in the meantime while we tackle the really important things!

BringBackSonics · Jan 25, 2019

Senior editor of global opinions at Wapo says Ilhan just playing to base to score points

Kirblar · Jan 25, 2019

jett said:
How was she elected to congress, exactly?

She won the primary for Keith "Oh that's why Obama nuked him behind the scenes as DNC Chair" Ellison's safe blue seat after he vacated to run for MN Attorney General.

BringBackSonics said:
Senior editor of global opinions at Wapo says Ilhan just playing to base to score points

That's more charitable than my take.

Can anyone explain what's happening in Venezuela? Dictator Maduro hated by majority but, Trump Admin / VP Pence and Bolsonaro backing opposition?

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