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Can anyone explain what's happening in Venezuela? Dictator Maduro hated by majority but, Trump Admin / VP Pence and Bolsonaro backing opposition?
- Thread starter Iloelemen
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Supporting neither is supporting the status quo which is the same as supporting Maduro
I read AOC's retweet of Ro Khanna as hesitance to say too much because presumably AOC doesn't know that much about Venezuela, has other priorities, and simply wanted to signal to her supporters that she isn't in favor of interfering too much since there was a clamoring for her to respond. That was pretty smart, and tbh Omar is getting too in the weeds here. She'll get attacked for this quick legalistic analysis of the legitimacy of Maduro vs. Guaido because the government is broken. It sounds like she is staunchly siding with Maduro's constitutional legitimacy, but this is almost an indefensible position at this point because Maduro has flouted the constitution of Venezuela. Whether what the legislature decided was legitimate or not is besides the point, the government is in a constitutional crisis and all of its norms or procedures aren't bound to any real consistency now. What matters is bringing the state back together through some attempt at reconciliation before a civil war breaks out. To her credit she said as much in the later tweets.
Nah, you are just getting your first lick of woke progressives. We've had those for a while in Europe.
Between that and Trumpian attitudes like "facts don't matter as long as you are in the right", America is in for a wild ride.
Between that and Trumpian attitudes like "facts don't matter as long as you are in the right", America is in for a wild ride.
As I've said multiple times in this thread, I hope we can all agree on this. Where people differ is on how to bring about this reconciliation. I firmly believe foreign powers declaring their support for one side over the other is not the way to do this.
Nice to know now that she's the new Tulsi Gabbard.
1. Nobody hand picked Guaido, it was elected by the people to the Asambela Nacional
2. Guiado is following the constitunional process to take out Maduro, there is no coup. If it reach a point of a coup it gonna come from the people of Venezuela.
3. Issues in Venezuela started before sanctions and most of them are directed to people involved or related to the goverment of Maduro.
Yes, wasn't their Supreme Court re-installed by Maduro?
So of course they would have agreed with Maduro.
Omar really screwing up here.
I don't see the relevance of using "woke" sarcastically. That's alt right level of discourse.
I think almost every single poster gets this, but that isn't the same as "saber rattling western imperialism" which is one of a few things that derailed the thread. And to be frank - calling what's now a simple inonal recognition of the opposition's legitimacy by multiple "normal" democracies, somehow worse than what's happening in Venezuela right now (including shoot to kill on protestors) is at this point a strange position. And a coup is possible. I'd reject that. I'd be terrified if the US were involved in that. But that's not what's happened at this point.
I saw you do that and hoped you were wrong. welp.
Here goes more shitstorm.
Watch this magically not be "foreign imperialism" for some observers. As opposed to widespread diplomatic mere recognition of a candidate's legitimacy.
Ilhan is doubling down on her idiocy. Does she not understand the Supreme Court was hand picked by Maduro?
This simply isn't how it works. Are you for Russian meddling or is it ok only when we do it? You can be against a coup and be against Maduro at the same time.
No, I can support the offerings of Mexico and Uruguay, calling for eventual elections, and supporting the idea of Maduro going out, without supporting Guaidó staying as "president"
Guaidó is not gonna stay as president, it just transitional for 1 year or 2. Acting president that calls for general elections.
Only American imperialism is true imperialism.
I feel like it may increase the chances of a full blown civil war. Those mercenaries will have much less of an issue killing protesters.
You can't win an election against Maduro, and not because of lack of numbers but because he and his government don't play by the rules, they control all the institutions including the one in charge of counting the ballots, they move dates at will, they will not let political parties or specific candidates to run at will, they just don't play by the rules, it has been tried before, and no, you have to be really blind to think they have been more than 20 years in power because the majority of the population supports them. Even poor neighborhoods that used to be pro Chavez/Maduro are saying they rather die protesting than out of hunger or lack of medicine.
After strongly disagreeing with her previous tweets I went on her twitter to see if she changed her viewpoint, and saw this as her most recent tweet:
Sigh... highly disapointed in Omar right night now.
For context, Rania Khalek is a well know Russian propagandist who appears frequently on RT and pushes Russian and viewpoints and Assad apologism incessantly, and to see a person who I otherwise respect retweeting her supportively is just...
I hope it was without knowing who the person is, but still, do some research into who you are retweeting.
Sigh... highly disapointed in Omar right night now.
For context, Rania Khalek is a well know Russian propagandist who appears frequently on RT and pushes Russian and viewpoints and Assad apologism incessantly, and to see a person who I otherwise respect retweeting her supportively is just...
I hope it was without knowing who the person is, but still, do some research into who you are retweeting.
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The wild thing about Venezuela is that the country is already a vassal state and it has been for quite some years.
Cuba is running an incredible racket, using the country as its free gas station while encroaching on Venezuela's military and intelligence, something which began with Chaves. Maduro, being too much of a corrupt fuck, basically allowed Cuba to run significant parts of the state in exchange for safety. Alas, Cuba is far too poor and dependent on the goodwill of other countries and blocs who have no simpathy for Maduro, so this is where Russia steps in, providing the money, international clout and muscle that Cuba cannot if things go south.
Venezuela was stripped from its sovereignty a long time ago. And while one should be extremely wary of America's policy in Latin America, it should also recognize that no ally of Maduro is interested in freedom or good governance. Quite the contrary.
Cuba is running an incredible racket, using the country as its free gas station while encroaching on Venezuela's military and intelligence, something which began with Chaves. Maduro, being too much of a corrupt fuck, basically allowed Cuba to run significant parts of the state in exchange for safety. Alas, Cuba is far too poor and dependent on the goodwill of other countries and blocs who have no simpathy for Maduro, so this is where Russia steps in, providing the money, international clout and muscle that Cuba cannot if things go south.
Venezuela was stripped from its sovereignty a long time ago. And while one should be extremely wary of America's policy in Latin America, it should also recognize that no ally of Maduro is interested in freedom or good governance. Quite the contrary.
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Having an incredibly negative view of posting pro-Maduro propaganda/disinformation is not "groupthink."
Yeah, like, the whole "I get all my political opinions from twitter and will include a tweet with every post I make" is kind of dumb, but it's wild that Nomis and Vela got banned instead of Condom, who seems to be openly cheerleading Maduro?
I guess I'm never gonna get any background info on Guaidó's policies or what his party campaigned on that makes them so far-right though.
Um, actually, I think you'll find that if America doesn't like it, it must be Incredibly Good.
Is it really derailing to mention American imperialism when it is the nefarious reason why we are supporting a coup? We sanctioned the hell out of Venezuela, wreck their ecomony, and now is supporting a coup to prop someone into getting into their oil reserves. This isn't to spread democracy. This is American imperialism at its finest.
Do you have any links on that Cuba hypothesis? They were obviously Russian-backed (see: RT/Telesur collab, etc.) but that specific aspect w/ Cuba is not something I'd heard before.
Sanctions (starting in 2014/2015) were implemented long after Chavez and Maduro trainwrecked their own economy and were primarily due to the destruction of democratic institutions under Maduro.
This has nothing to do with American Imperialism and everything to do with a Venezuelan crisis that's created literally millions of refugees that's destabilizing the region. If Maduro were more like Chavez (shitty ruler, but less incompetent, and legitimately elected) we wouldn't be doing shit here.
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Very not good. Seems telling they're sending in contractors. It is clearly the Russian state amplifying its presence, but they probably believe putting actual Russian troops on the ground could be an intolerable escalation for the US. I guess it also indicates Maduro or Russia don't totally trust the military, having foreign mercenaries around the president may make any military officers on the fence feel less confident in trying to arrest Maduro.
Pinochet said the same in Chile. Let's see how it goes, the guy said that amnisty for Maduro is an option, and Maduro says is open for mediation, which I don't fully trust, but hey, it's better than a civil war or military intervention
Chavez was recognized by other countries. Maduro almost lost the first election. But in any case, mediation has to have guaranties
That is an incredibly weird take to hear from an elected US politician given the facts. That's like a Jill Stein take in fact. Like a take that can't withstand the slightest examination or scrutiny. And I'm all for being a dovish "wait and see" on this.
But she jumped right to the Monroe Doctrine. And I agree that the Venezuelan sanctions are hurting the people but that literally won't change if they're lifted because Maduro is not going to suddenly distribute the already tenuous income from relieved sanctions to the people affected.
It's that graft and incompetence that got Venezuela into this mess in the first place. At least Chavez did a little bit of bread and circuses before permanently tanking the economy and betraying his own supporters.
There's no spare change down the back of Maduro's sofa for anything but his military croneys - sanctions or no sanctions.
Venezuela isn't a middle eastern oil state - there's a huge opportunity for a country with its national natural resources and populace to prosper in a post oil economy. Land and sea connections to vast markets, arable land, a literate, moderate and ostensibly secular (very catholic obviously) population and a huge brain trust of educated professionals and academics - many of whom have drained outward but hopeful of return and normalization.
It's the opposite of a shithole on its merits. It's also a beautiful country with a huge potential for tourism and positive retiree immigration among other things.
It even has pretty low international debt. Jeff Bezos could personally pay it all off.
But none of this matters without democratic elections and serious planning and support from its neighbors and former trading partners.
I'd love to hear what yesterday's "imperialist resistance" thinks of Russia showing up to "help." And how they think that's going to help normalize a nation in crisis.
The US, Canada and the bigger European players in the former economy like the Netherlands and UK need to work with legitimately elected Venezuelans and their neighbors to help - without putting boots on the ground or fingers on the scale.
I don't have a magic solution and in reality there isn't one - but step one has to be democratically elected leaders with the country's best interests at heart.
I agree with a couple of the intellectually fraudulent straw man vendors from last night about one thing though - the US should not do anything unilaterally outside of managing trade sanctions - and that should at least include negotiations on international observance of resource distribution and eventually further elections.
Even if somebody waved a magic wand tomorrow and normalized government, trade and oil prices - Venezuela still has to untangle a wrecked constitution and legislation, undo massive brain drain, fix the giant and sudden exodus from secondary education and repair ruined infrastructure.
It can't do that alone and it can't do it in isolation. And yes, unless invited, it can't be done with the US as the primary sponsor. We need arm's length on diplomacy and hopefully reconstruction. Too bad we alienated all of our North and central American neighbors.
And Russia showing up? Again anyone else want to address that? Apparently I'm a conspiracy theorist who believes Russia is an antagonistic state interfering in other democracies without a shred of evidence to support that. So I can't comment.
Cuba's Support for the Venezuelan regime
No hypothesis. Cuba's support of the regime is well documented.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-general-interview-idUSTRE63S3CO20100429
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/...-in-venezuela-with-antipathy-toward-cuba.html
https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-cuba-helped-make-venezuela-a-mafia-state
Some more background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba–Venezuela_relations#1999–present
Basically Chavez needed Cuba to run its health services and modernise Venezuela's army, much of which was paid in oil. Then Venezuela's economy crashed and Cuban support became even more important in order to keep things running, which allowed Cuba to keep the oil flowing while increasing its clout. But Cuba is also extremely weak and Venezuela cannot provide cash any longer when asked for some services, so there's a chance they may bail in the event of an open conflict. Hence Russian support.
If you look at Spanish sources you'll find protests in Venezuela against Cuban interference and some articles about Cuban doctors being used to run the Venezuelan health services in parallel to Venezuelan doctors, whom feel displaced and are greatly underpaid. This can be traced back to Chavez's days, when he imported large numbers of Cuban doctors and teachers to mold the country after Cuba using ideologically aligned and vetted professionals. It greatly increased living standards and support for Chavez among the poorest (while money lasted, anyway) at the cost of allowing Cuba to run a parallel administration.
Cuban advisors are also all over the army and helped to shape it into its current multilayered structure in order to reduce the risk of a coup.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/maduro-venezuela/528003/
I'm guessing that Cuba's extraordinary clout in Venezuela is rarely discused in America because Cuba is no longer considered a menace. But for many years Cuba has been running much the show while Chavez's and then Maduro's cronies bankrupted the country.
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Maduro lost that election, but the institutions were already compromised at that time, his numbers don't even add up.
"Mediation" Sounds very altruistic and good on paper, but you will have to live in Venezuela, experience this misery and desperation for a few years, maybe listen to what Venezuelans have to say too, have family die of lack of medicine or starvation, see how the government denies humanitarian intervention in front of your very own eyes, and then, maybe then, you will understand that what you suggest can't and never will work in Venezuela, in the mean time a little less of "I know what it should be done there" and more empathy towards the real victims of Maduro's and Chavizmo reign of terror goes a long way.
Why are you even characterizing this as a coup instigated by the US when there is no evidence of it. Why are you ignoring that this change in leadership is what the majority of Venezuelans, including literally every actual Venezuelan in this thread has said they wanted. Yes American imperialism is bad, and I think everyone wishes for the US and Russia to not get involved, but that's not what instigated this. Years of famine and suffering lead to this.
It is incredible disingenuous to lay all of Venezuela's problems on American intereference. While it certainly existed, it was corruption and incompetence and actions by OPEC that far predated sanctions. I suggest you read the thread.
Democracy does not begin and end with elections; it requires a free press and an environment where opposition parties are allowed to exist. Neither of which will ever exist with Maduro in power.
I work with Venezuelans that escaped the country. Even those that voted in those election for Chavez and Maduro, and even if I don't live in Venezuela I hear their stories and I absolutely agree that Maduro can't stay. I also know how it works when the pendulum swings the other way since we had the situation and got Pinochet. I am also watching people using it to justify Fascism and mass murderds of the "marxist cancer".
Maduro has two options: either accepts mediation and elections, or civil war. I fear the later since it will escalate, so I'll support the first option.
Thanks for this, this definitely clarifies a lot of the specifics of the problem.
I don't think ex-mods should be publicly calling for banning. If you want to ban people report them. Otherwise it seems like you're trying to bully people.
This is a totally nonsensical position.
Which is why I support mediation, I am fully aware that without it there will not be a legitimate solution. There has to be guaranties
Mediation has been tried many many times, nothing came out of that. it'll never work with Maduro.
You are aware that mediation was attempted last year but the external parties pulled out after Maduro bumped up the elections by half a year?
I think that the situation is different. What is happening right now has NEVER happened before. It's the only peaceful solution (I mean, the next one is Maduro fully resigning, which is absolutely impossible)
I don't have an opinion on the backseat modding aspect of the conversation but Kirblar is right about something that's still happening in this thread - multiple posters equating the multilateral diplomatic acknowledgement of election irregularities and of a legitimate candidate - with an alleged US led coup attempt without a lick of evidence.
- and the repeated, frustrating and outlandish misrepresentation of people's positions - to the point where folks are making up entire fictional arguments and claims that never actually happened.
As for the "totally nonsensical position" - he was responding to posters who'd accused him of falsely supporting a US led coup, posters who were also defending the legitimacy and success of Maduro's regime and constitutional and economic principles - none of which are rationally defensible given what's happening - and supporting a status quo that is shooting and killing peaceful civilian protestors, jailing political opponents and starving its citizenry is not a "null" position. It's dishonest and ultimately destructive. Even demanding inaction or status quo in this context seems to me immoral as well as dishonest and factually wrong.
Maduro is not a legitimate democratic ruler and he has further damaged his economy and populace through incompetence, corruption and even murder.
The US can't solve it and should keep at very least, arm's length outside of trying to ease hunger -- but it's not an acceptable situation. People are dying. Defending it as a justifiable consequence of a normal democratic sovereignty just doesn't withstand even light scrutiny.
That position was, you either support one thing or you support the other. Essentially it was if you say you don't support either side you're wrong and you actually support one.
For instance in the 1980s did you support the DUP and the UDF or Sein Fein and the Provs? If you say neither I'm declaring you a supporter of the DUP and the UDF.
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