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Gorgosh

Member
Oct 26, 2017
957
So I got PC Gamepass right after it launched and the content is amazing so far. Many very good games I wanted to play, all new future Xbox Content etc. It is literally insane, like many here already stated. So as a customer, I am currently 100% satisfied, I even take the stupid App System for every game that Microsoft has in place.

This topic could also be about Uplay+, EaAccess, etc., Gamepass is just the best value right now.

But I wonder, how can this be healthy/sustainable for the Industry?
At WORST(or best for MS) I pay 120€/year for this service (PC Only, a bit more with Pass Ultimate). For that I get at least 4 (big?) Microsoft exclusives a year (they plan to release one every 3 months). That alone would be >120€ if I would buy everything boxed & new. But then there is a shitload of Third Party games aswell. Of course every Developer decides if they want to put the game on Gamepass or not, but you have to wonder how good this is for smaller devs in the long run?

I guess Microsoft and "bigger" Third-Party Devs move to a GaaS model with nearly every game they launch in the future, bringing in a constant revenue with Microtransactions/Cosmetics.
But many Indie games that are already on Gamepass (Mutant Year Zero, Wargroove, Hollow Knight etc.) don't have, and probably can't afford, this GaaS service model. They would need to push out new content constantly, which is hardly possible with small Team sizes and without crunch.
So they either get very good money per Download/Playtime, or will suffer in the long run. This is also the question when the Services grows. PC Game Pass with ~100 games you can easily find even obscure games and try them out. But when the services gets to 200, 500 or even 1000 games in the next few years, how will small Indie Games even have a chance to generate profite between all the big GaaS hitters (the Steam "problem")?

We say Microsoft is the Netflix of Gaming. While Netflix has amazing growth, it is still ~12 Billion $ in debt. (Source). That number is no problem for Microsoft, as the service grows and they draw people into the Xbox Eco System. The question is, will Microsoft keep the smaller devs/Third Party devs afloat during the time of growth? Will they buy out smaller studios that can't sustain the model themself, but offer good content for the platform? Will devs be forced to accept these platforms or a constant revenue model (GaaS or whatever the future holds)?

So what do you think will the future of PC Gamepass bring to the developers/industry? Is this move sustainable for most devs, or will we see a few big services which push out exclusive content to draw in customers and "smaller" productions/games will die out in the process? This is what will probably happen to most movie/TV streaming services as time moves on.

Definetly interesting times. As a consumer the next years will be insane with services trying to lure in customers with lower and lower prices.
 

flyingman

Banned
Apr 16, 2019
1,678
I dont think so . Game development budgets are much higher than average netflix shit they put on
 

Blizzcut

Banned
Dec 13, 2017
747
My concern is that this will discourage developers from making big budget AAA titles just so they can shoe horn it into Gamepass.
 

THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,841
netflix also spends an ungodly sum on new content. They spent 8B in 2018.
 
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Gorgosh

Member
Oct 26, 2017
957
My concern is that this will discourage developers from making big budget AAA titles just so they can shoe horn it into Gamepass.
That is also a concern. Many people want Sony to follow suit and release their big AAA SP games on PSNow. But would we even get games like Horizon and God of War on a Gamepass service? Where is the revenue coming from to fund these games?
 

Shrennin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,680
I guess it depends on whether or not you believe Microsoft when they said Game Pass has caused increase in game sales.

I think it helps bring attention to indie titles and is extremely good for them.

I do think it encourages diverse games because the subscription is the product so you want to sell to all aspects of the market. This means we may get more dedicated single player experiences than we otherwise would have (at least with Microsoft). Microsoft are also still clearly pushing AAA and even the "AAAA" games with 343, Playground, Initiative, Coalition.
 

darkside

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,265
The Netflix comparison is apt because the model has barely worked for Netflix. Its not really about the debt, but they've had negative cash flow every single year they've existed and while they say it will turn around soon I guess I'll believe it when I see it.

People want their new big budget AAA games but if Gamepass becomes the standard those just aren't going to exist. Because they can't under Gamepass. Not at what they're charging right now at the very least
 

Einbroch

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,977
I fear for it, a bit.

Netflix is very much a "eh, it doesn't have to be amazing, just good enough" thing. And it shows for a lot of their content.
 

Honome

Member
Jan 10, 2018
1,084
Rio de Janeiro
It's completely unsustainable in the current price that Microsoft is charging. Until they release some real numbers i have no doubt they are having absolutely zero profit with those prices and that kind of thing will just cause a crash in the quality of the games in the near future. The good thing is that Sony and Nintendo are not entering in this same madness.
 

bsigg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,541
netflix also spends an ungodly sum on new content. They spent 8B in 2018.

Yep and I believe they were looking at 12B for 2019.

Something people need to recognize as well is these games are still for sale. They're not locked into ONLY on Game Pass like Netflix original content is only available in the Netflix sub. Publishers/devs can still market their game and use the word of mouth from those playing in Game Pass to hopefully springboard some more sales on other platforms or even on Xbox/PC with an ad campaign lined up with the game coming out of Game Pass.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,617
For games, I imagine MS looked at the numbers and the average Xbox gamer probably bought fewer than 2 first party games on average. If they get you on the subscription that's more revenue than they'd usually get.
Especially since it's digital vs boxed goods.
As you mentioned these games are also GAAS or have GAAS like elements so it incentives you to remain subscribed and also potentially invest in micro transactions.

It's not sustainable if everyone tries it, tho.
Kind of like there not being much of a market for a newcomer to try a Netflix competitor after Disney+
 

ghibli99

Member
Oct 27, 2017
17,708
I think so, especially as the number of subscribers scales up and the number of titles available at any given time on the service is limited, which allows a healthier split of revenue. Curation will also be an important factor in keeping the service attractive.

I use this example a lot, but although Forza Horizon 4 is on GP, I ended up buying the Ultimate upgrade and the cheap treasure map, which are automatically discounted via GP sub, so they got a decent chunk of money from me in addition to my subscription fee. Had I bought the game later used (which is probably what I was going to do after feeling a little burnt out on the series), that would have meant potentially $0 from me.

There have also been a few other indies I've purchased after trying them on GP because I just wanted to own them outright and support those developers.
 

THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,841
The Netflix comparison is apt because the model has barely worked for Netflix. Its not really about the debt, but they've had negative cash flow every single year they've existed and while they say it will turn around soon I guess I'll believe it when I see it.

Because they are still growing an buying new content. Amazon was in debt for a decade.
 

bluexy

Comics Enabler & Freelance Games Journalist
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
14,510
It's absolutely worth worrying about but you're spot-on that the conclusion is... who knows? Ideally, it'll provide a service that provides an average higher bottom line than if all of these games had not released in Game Pass, through both increased visibility and a more stable/reliable payment structure. Whereas in the normal game economy a lot more of these games would make less money, while fewer would have really high successes. It's risk aversion.

But the threat is that the Game Pass market either gets so saturated that indies aren't getting any more visibility than they would otherwise, that Game Pass grows to become a staple and indies feel forced to be a part of it, or that Xbox doesn't share enough of the revenue so indies can't be sustained on the platform.

The good news/bad news is that gamers are going to come out ahead no matter what. We just may never know whether that advantage is predatory/exploitative.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,641
When MS announce their quarterly numbers, I want to know how many of their new Game Pass add-ons are people who did the 3 year Xbox Live + $1 upgrade trick to get GP ultimate for far, far lower than its actual value. I don't know about gamepass overall — but there is no way that is sustainable.
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,000
Europe
That is also a concern. Many people want Sony to follow suit and release their big AAA SP games on PSNow. But would we even get games like Horizon and God of War on a Gamepass service? Where is the revenue coming from to fund these games?

No,with these prices from MS service like this is definitely not sustainable.
In order to have something like GoW/Uncharted etc. day 1,that subscription service would probably cost so much that nobody would pay for it.
 

TubaZef

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,563
Brazil
A lot of devs are already very worried about subscription services becoming the norm. Indies are worried about how this can devaluate their games. I mean, why pay 10 bucks for one game when you can pay 10 a month for hundreds of them!
 

inner-G

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
14,473
PNW
It doesn't necessarily need to be profitable as long as MS thinks the content is worth investing in.

If it brings people to their platform, they can make money off of them in a number of different ways
 

Shrennin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,680
I mean, if we don't want to believe Microsoft, there's Matt saying the same thing



That's great to know. Thanks for that info.

I never didn't believe them. I just couldn't fact check that myself.

I personally love Game Pass right now. The value is insane. People do love owning games tho so the 20% discount plus 10% on DLC is a smart incentive.
 

THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,841
When MS announce their quarterly numbers, I want to know how many of their new Game Pass add-ons are people who did the 3 year Xbox Live + $1 upgrade trick to get GP ultimate for far, far lower than its actual value. I don't know about gamepass overall — but there is no way that is sustainable.

you'll never get numbers being that specific. They don't even do that for O365 subs.
 

Green

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,410
They only need to hook you on 1 game so that you continue subscribing. By showing you a wide-variety of games, the chances of the service "finding" that one game to hook you are increased. From there it's a matter of getting players to purchase extra content.

I think it's very sustainable. Once you get bored of that 1 game, so long as they're constantly rotating new games in, the chances of you unsubscribing is low, unless they have nothing you're interested in. It's in their best interest to keep the service fresh and with new content as their analytics start recommending new things for people to play. Same dealio as Netflix.
 

bsigg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,541
We should have inside knowledge to judge. How dev are paid by MS to have their game on it ?

A lump sum contract. They are thankfully not doing the Apple News/Apple Arcade shit where devs are paid per time played.

There's a Twitter thread on it from some time last year that I can't find right now.
 

Psamtik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,845
It's great for getting people to try games. The reach of Netflix is really unprecedented for filmmakers - look at how much mainstream attention Ava DuVernay's Central Park Five film got versus the Ken Burns documentary from 2012 that covered much of the same material; if you want people to actually watch your movie, Netflix is hard to beat, and the same's true of an increasingly GaaS-oriented game industry.
 
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Gorgosh

Member
Oct 26, 2017
957
I mean, if we don't want to believe Microsoft, there's Matt saying the same thing



That is interesting. Now there a few games on the service, I hope that trend continues as the library grows and it becomes harder to find games.
We should have inside knowledge to judge. How dev are paid by MS to have their game on it ?
That would be interesting as well, but I don't think we will ever get concrete numbers.
 

Zaubrer

Member
Oct 16, 2018
1,394
why not. with game pass I am spending more money on gaming than I ever did. just to have the ease of use.
 

Bit_Reactor

Banned
Apr 9, 2019
4,413
I mean, if we don't want to believe Microsoft, there's Matt saying the same thing



This is where I'm at. As much as I hate the idea of an all digital future having both methods for everyone will do nothing but grow the industry. I'm fine with it.

The problem with things like crowdfunding/Patreon/Gamepass/Netflix/etc is it puts too much (imo) power on the consumer's end. Anytime you're that beholden to a market to make what they want you have to do that in risk of losing their investment (i.e. dollars) in you.

I've seen artists on Patreon and stuff constantly drawing a bunch of bad anatomy softcore porn because that's what people keep subbing for. I think if Gamepass were to dominate the market you'd see an even greater rise in "trend chasers" and such and less risk taken. But it's all speculative so I could be way off base.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,641
you'll never get numbers being that specific. They don't even do that for O365 subs.
I know we won't — we don't get specific numbers for anything much. I just wanted to put the idea out there that a lot of the increase we are going to see next time is going to come from people like us who were exploiting that $1 deal, and that there is no way that is sustainable.
 

SxP

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,867
I think so yes. If you look at it a little differently. Game companies have been enjoying the benefits of 60 dollar purchases and GaaS strategies for a while now. All GamePass will do is push the industry towards what is the norm on mobile. For anyone except Microsoft, their games are free-to-play + GaaS. For Microsoft, they're cashing in on subscriptions, 30% of all microtransactions, and 100% of microtransactions in their games.

And for Microsoft it's worth it to create some high-profile SP experiences. Because it will drive people to the platform. Which means a subscription, plus 30% of purchases made in other games. That's why Sony could do this, and still create TLOU and God of War. Because they'll drive people to their platform. But no one else can, not unless they own the platform.

All the single player and non-GaaS games on the platform are an investment for Microsoft. To draw people to the platform. Whether they are their games, or other games. As long as people sub. Then maybe try out something else, buy a microtransaction. And the rest? Well, mobile proves that there is plenty of money to be made in "free-to-play".
 

TechnicPuppet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
10,809
It's collective buying. As MS buying power goes up and they increase subscription revenues they will be able to buy more and more which will increase subscribers subscribers and so on.

There should hopefully be an ever increasing pot of money available to the industry and higher quality games for subscribers.
 

Betty

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,604
I honestly don't think so.

Or if it is games will have to be severely cut back budget wise or become GaaS to make the most money.
 

Shrennin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,680
The other thing Game Pass has that Netflix doesn't is sales.

Heck, before the Ultimate upgrade, I bought two years of Game Pass for $120 - half off.

It's actually way cheaper than Netflix due to that. Not sure if that's a good thing in the long run or not when it comes to games being developed, but as a consumer it's great now.
 
Jun 4, 2019
593
I dont think so . Game development budgets are much higher than average netflix shit they put on
Movies debut in theatres and then appear on Netflix within 6 months, all while being extremely profitable. No reason games can't do the same. Microsoft's first parties will probably be encouraged to mitigate costs and focus on repeatable content that's cheap to produce and can be monetized (multiplayer, horde modes, GaaS, etc).
 

THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,841
The other thing Game Pass has that Netflix doesn't is sales.

Heck, before the Ultimate upgrade, I bought two years of Game Pass for $120 - half off.

It's actually way cheaper than Netflix due to that. Not sure if that's a good thing in the long run or not when it comes to games being developed, but as a consumer it's great now.

Netflix had tons of promotions for free months and all of that. As does O365. It's common for subs to offer something free to get you in.
 
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Gorgosh

Member
Oct 26, 2017
957
I think so yes. If you look at it a little differently. Game companies have been enjoying the benefits of 60 dollar purchases and GaaS strategies for a while now. All GamePass will do is push the industry towards what is the norm on mobile. For anyone except Microsoft, their games are free-to-play + GaaS. For Microsoft, they're cashing in on subscriptions, 30% of all microtransactions, and 100% of microtransactions in their games.

And for Microsoft it's worth it to create some high-profile SP experiences. Because it will drive people to the platform. Which means a subscription, plus 30% of purchases made in other games. That's why Sony could do this, and still create TLOU and God of War. Because they'll drive people to their platform. But no one else can, not unless they own the platform.

All the single player and non-GaaS games on the platform are an investment for Microsoft. To draw people to the platform. Whether they are their games, or other games. As long as people sub. Then maybe try out something else, buy a microtransaction. And the rest? Well, mobile proves that there is plenty of money to be made in "free-to-play".
Well to be fair, that would be a worst-case scenario for me and I guess most other people on here. If that is the price to pay in the long-term, that would be pretty bad for the industry.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,346
It works and is attractive right now for many devs because many of the smaller titles wouldnt sell that big numbers on Xbox to begin with - so even a small share from the GamePass money or the potential to sell DLC down the line is attractive for many devs. But many of the devs that are more successful on PC or Switch would probably decline. Its not a real substitute for games or devs that have already a strong viable market.

Many of the good looking GamePass titles from e3 are games that i would wanna play on Switch first for example - when you are the 3rd or 4th plattform choice for indie titles, its easier to negotiate deals for the GamePass inclusion.

Nintendo would probably have to pay quite a bit more per title to get the successful indie devs on Switch to be part of a similar program.
 

NSA

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
3,892
I think if it gets put on gamepass on a delay.. it could work fine. You'd still get the day 1 people buying at full price and then once that drops off, gamepass to keep people playing.
 

bsigg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,541
Movies debut in theatres and then appear on Netflix within 6 months, all while being extremely profitable. No reason games can't do the same. Microsoft's first parties will probably be encouraged to mitigate costs and focus on repeatable content that's cheap to produce and can be monetized (multiplayer, horde modes, GaaS, etc).

Sea of Thieves which has been in Game Pass since day one has yet to introduce microtransactions. The game is completely supported by Game Pass AND people buying the game, not trying to nickel and dime the existing player base.

I think if it gets put on gamepass on a delay.. it could work fine. You'd still get the day 1 people buying at full price and then once that drops off, gamepass to keep people playing.

A game launching in Game Pass doesn't stop people from buying. Halo MCC is currently one of the top wishlisted games on Steam despite the game is going to be available in Game Pass, a sub where it will ultimately cost less to play it.
 
Jun 4, 2019
593
Sea of Thieves which has been in Game Pass since day one has yet to introduce microtransactions. The game is completely supported by Game Pass AND people buying the game, not trying to nickel and dime the existing player base.
I think if that game had a positive reception at launch, it would've had the political capital to introduce some MTX. Maybe I'm wrong.
 

Prine

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,724
That is also a concern. Many people want Sony to follow suit and release their big AAA SP games on PSNow. But would we even get games like Horizon and God of War on a Gamepass service? Where is the revenue coming from to fund these games?
Pretty sure games like Gears 5, Forza Horizon, SoT cost as much as any Sony AAA, game, I think it's fair to say Halo Infinite surpasses them all by a healthy margin. AAA Dev costs are not being questioned for Gamepass games and is unlikely to be factor with the sub model.
 

modiz

Member
Oct 8, 2018
17,831
going by the fact MS went from full price, to 1$ for a month for new users, to 1$ a month for new AND returning users, to 1$ for 3 months for new and returning users, i dont think its as sustainable as it seems.
 

Deleted member 46804

User requested account closure
Banned
Aug 17, 2018
4,129
I don't think people think about subscriptions in the same way they do purchasing a game. They are separate budgets with subscriptions being something people forget about as a cost over time. I also think you need to think about the average number of games a user buys per year. If you can get someone to subscribe to a service and buy one game or use that money for DLC instead, you probably come out ahead.
 

Kid Night

Member
Oct 27, 2017
474
Don't look at Gamepass as an either/or situation. Gamepass is part of a larger ecosystem that includes Digital and Physical purchases and even other platforms. Gamepass is, can, and will be successful without taking over the whole industry.

The hardcore fans, or interested players who don't have gamepass, buy your game full price. Really interested players are pre-ordering.

AAA games don't show up on Gamepass for a year. Rather than players buying used, or waiting for a sale, you earn some revenue on Gamepass and maybe sell them some DLC.

Indie games get some money, day one is probably money-hatted. If it's good and long, maybe someone buys a copy for the Switch so they can have it portable.

Titles cycle out of Gamepass, so if you want to play those games again, you get to purchase it. They usually promote a sale on the game when it is about to leave gamepass.

If you have a GAAS game, it's better to put it on Gamepass, since you would be "free to play" otherwise. Having MS pay you for the time players are spending in your game in addition to the microtransactions you're selling is much better than microtransactions only.
 
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Gorgosh

Member
Oct 26, 2017
957
Pretty sure games like Gears 5, Forza Horizon, SoT cost as much as any Sony AAA, game, I think it's fair to say Halo Infinite surpasses them all by a healthy margin. AAA Dev costs are not being questioned for Gamepass games.
Gears 5 and Forza Horizon both have Microtransactions and (probably in Gears 5 case) multiple Addons planned. I don't think Halo Infinite will be designed as a pure SP experience, it will definetly have elements to keep it alive for years.
 

SxP

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,867
Well to be fair, that would be a worst-case scenario for me and I guess most other people on here. If that is the price to pay in the long-term, that would be pretty bad for the industry.

I'd say it might be bad for some players, you and me included. But for the industry? Probably not, probably total revenue will grow. A lower barrier to entry means more chances to convert more players into whales. Which will earn a company far more than hundreds of people buying a game at 60.
 

Ringten

Member
Nov 15, 2017
6,195
I guess its a great additional service, but not something that can replace the conventional way of outright buying games.

Also, Gamepass is more suited for GaaS, Indies, and bringing the spotlight on games that may not have done that well commercially down the line.

You cannot have big AAA games day one (that have no additonal revenue method)
 

THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,841
Sea of Thieves which has been in Game Pass since day one has yet to introduce microtransactions. The game is completely supported by Game Pass AND people buying the game, not trying to nickel and dime the existing player base.



A game launching in Game Pass doesn't stop people from buying. Halo MCC is currently one of the top wishlisted games on Steam despite the game is going to be available in Game Pass, a sub where it will ultimately cost less to play it.

Yep. The difference between Netlfix and GP is you can buy the games in GamePass at a discount rate.