Canada PoliERA |OT| Two Years of Sunny Days? That’s Scheer Madness!

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,390
Toronto
Much to the chagrin of the NDP the pipeline probably cost them more votes than the shattered hopes of electoral reform.
Oh yeah, no arguments about it there.

But also TBF, the vast majority of Electoral Reform voters were squarely in the NDP/Green bases to begin with. And the Liberal voters only cared as far as being annoyed that the Conservatives kept on kicking their asses. So them not going through with it just makes the actual supporters want to return to their natural homes, while leaving the Liberals still happy since they are still in power.

But then again. Once the Conservatives go back to kicking their asses because the left returns to being naturally split, then the Liberal Voters will be back kicking and screaming, conveniently forgetting that once upon a time they had a chance to fix their little problem and they didn't take it. And the new wave of youth that is entirely for Electoral Reform won't know the history as well. Leaving us prime for history to repeat itself. As is tradition.
 

firehawk12

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,450
Oh yeah, no arguments about it there.

But also TBF, the vast majority of Electoral Reform voters were squarely in the NDP/Green bases to begin with. And the Liberal voters only cared as far as being annoyed that the Conservatives kept on kicking their asses. So them not going through with it just makes the actual supporters want to return to their natural homes, while leaving the Liberals still happy since they are still in power.

But then again. Once the Conservatives go back to kicking their asses because the left returns to being naturally split, then the Liberal Voters will be back kicking and screaming, conveniently forgetting that once upon a time they had a chance to fix their little problem and they didn't take it. And the new wave of youth that is entirely for Electoral Reform won't know the history as well. Leaving us prime for history to repeat itself. As is tradition.
I think Ontario proved that there's no real left majority. The majority lives between the shitty right wing and a less shitty ring wing.
 

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,072
But then again. Once the Conservatives go back to kicking their asses because the left returns to being naturally split, then the Liberal Voters will be back kicking and screaming, conveniently forgetting that once upon a time they had a chance to fix their little problem and they didn't take it. And the new wave of youth that is entirely for Electoral Reform won't know the history as well. Leaving us prime for history to repeat itself. As is tradition
People were sick of Harper, Trudeau won.
People were sick of Wynne, we are stuck with Ford.

It's the new politics, ramp up hate against someone and bring out the voters to kick them out. Scheer has gone from everything from Elbowgate to Omar Khadr. And now he has the biggest gift of all with SNCgate.

Voters can't agree en masse to vote for something but they sure can agree to vote against something.

think Ontario proved that there's no real left majority. The majority lives between the shitty right wing and a less shitty ring wing.
Too many low information voters. If the majority of voters were informed they'd vote NDP or at least never vote conservative.

NDP is the victim of having policies you need to think and understand. Ford makes everything sounds nice and simple. No thinking required.
 

bremon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,040
Oh yeah, no arguments about it there.

But also TBF, the vast majority of Electoral Reform voters were squarely in the NDP/Green bases to begin with. And the Liberal voters only cared as far as being annoyed that the Conservatives kept on kicking their asses. So them not going through with it just makes the actual supporters want to return to their natural homes, while leaving the Liberals still happy since they are still in power.

But then again. Once the Conservatives go back to kicking their asses because the left returns to being naturally split, then the Liberal Voters will be back kicking and screaming, conveniently forgetting that once upon a time they had a chance to fix their little problem and they didn't take it. And the new wave of youth that is entirely for Electoral Reform won't know the history as well. Leaving us prime for history to repeat itself. As is tradition.
Yep. That’s the shattered promise that I’ll always remember about this mandate. But my CPC MP reassured me FPTP is an amazing system when I met with him to ask what they were doing to hold the Liberals accountable. “It’s a great system and wasn’t our promise” was basically the response.

Incrementalism is a lot more persuasive when it's not down to incompetence.
Yes, but just think of how much incompetence there is to go around. One party is still begging for a chance to prove their incompetence half a century later, but are seen as too incompetent to be trusted.

Yes. Just a matter of to what degree to figure out.

Potentially. Hopefully not.

No no. That's only when the Left splits the vote. AKA, when NDP Voters stay home or vote NDP. Haven't you heard the memo, everything is always the NDP's fault. No matter the circumstance.
They’re always partially to blame because they’re perennial losers who’ve never given people a reason to believe they aren’t losers. Personally, I blame cancer. Jack maybe could have done it given more time.

NDP is the victim of having policies you need to think and understand. Ford makes everything sounds nice and simple. No thinking required.
Turns out those bastards figured out that not having a platform at all is best because people just use their imaginations to exaggerate how fantastic you’ll be to themselves.
 

Pedrito

Member
Nov 4, 2017
964
I don't think SNCgate will even have much of an impact on the voting. The average voter doesn't know who JWR is, doesn't know what SNC-Lavalin is and doesn't know how the judicial system is supposed to work. People will have heard there's some kind of "scandal" going on, but won't be able to describe what it's about.

Elections right now are won by railing against immigrants and the "elites", not by palace intrigues (though it's covered in a way by the "elites" part).
 

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,390
Toronto
Turns out SNC Lavalin is a leading bidder for the Trillium Line extension of Ottawa's Phase 2 LRT. This could be interesting.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5019532

Hudak was honest on his cuts and he lost out to Wynne.

So they lied and won.
The funny thing is the ONDP's own head campaign person (who ran successful winning campaigns in other provinces) told the ONDP not to run a platform in this environment because it would have only worked against them. And then they didn't listen to him thinking they would have been destroyed for not having a plan.

So I guess, oops. But hey, on the bright side, campaigns are going to get real easy for these parties real soon as they learned first hand they don't need to spend all that time and money putting together a coherent plan... Talk about Efficiency!
 

Vamphuntr

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,290
I don't think SNCgate will even have much of an impact on the voting. The average voter doesn't know who JWR is, doesn't know what SNC-Lavalin is and doesn't know how the judicial system is supposed to work. People will have heard there's some kind of "scandal" going on, but won't be able to describe what it's about.

Elections right now are won by railing against immigrants and the "elites", not by palace intrigues (though it's covered in a way by the "elites" part).
Yup and like someone said above it's also voting to kick out the previous PM that was starting to get hated. I mean during the coverage the JWR event you never really saw Singh or Scheer much. It was their golden opportunity but media seems to give much more importance to the opinions of their pundits and experts than them. They are so weak that other than their own base no one cares about them. Like said on the top of this page the pipeline will be much more damaging to the Liberals than the current events especially since now that it's stalled by the court they've literally bought a pipeline they can't use so both camps are at lost.
 

djkimothy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,900
I don't think SNCgate will even have much of an impact on the voting. The average voter doesn't know who JWR is, doesn't know what SNC-Lavalin is and doesn't know how the judicial system is supposed to work. People will have heard there's some kind of "scandal" going on, but won't be able to describe what it's about.

Elections right now are won by railing against immigrants and the "elites", not by palace intrigues (though it's covered in a way by the "elites" part).
Yah, this has been a sentiment for some of the pundits i read. It's something for people to write about for a 3 week cycle but we'll forget about it by summer. Unless, like justin ling says, something new emerges.

Something off topic. Someone on change.org posted a petition to sell montana for trillion dollars to canada. A nice parody and some of the commenters are having fun with it. A trillion is a bit steep but we'd get some nice national parks out of it. ;)

https://www.change.org/p/christian-moms-against-private-education-sell-montana-to-canada-for-1-trillion-to-eliminate-the-national-debt
 

firehawk12

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,450
I think it just builds to the Liberals are shit narrative that similarly happened after a couple of terms of Harper's bullshit.

But I guess I'm biased because, as gutter likes to say, I inherently think Liberals are trash anyway. lol
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
903
The SNC Lavalin scandal does the job of further underlining the narrative that the Liberals are mostly interested in helping out their "corporate buddies" and other persons in power (see: meeting with the Aga Khan, buying a pipeline to help Alberta oil corps, Infrastructure bank, etc). If the voter is already receptive to this narrative, whether they're inclined to support the Conservatives or NDP, it's going to further cement their leaning to those opposition parties and it'll help those parties fundraise.

The much bigger problem I see is that even if this issue never blows up and it simply simmers as a vaguely sketchy thing, it plays into the narrative that "Trudeau is just another politician" and that Real Change™ was a sham (see also: lying about electoral reform, and perceived lack of follow up on indigenous issues). The danger here is that the core reason the Liberals won was because they turned out all these new voters, young, and indigenous people that hadn't voted before, and if those new voters are disaffected and stay home, then that's millions of Liberal votes that that party got in 2015 that vaporize.

The other dynamic I see here is that there's a split between Quebec and the rest of Canada. We've already seen the Quebec government and Quebec establishment media circle the wagons to protect SNC Lavalin ostensibly because of the need to protect 'good jobs' while the ROC media doesn't seem to care as much (even though there's tons of SNC Lavalin jobs in the ROC as well). You could see a situation where the ROC pulls away from the Liberals toward opposition parties while in Quebec people rally behind the Liberals. That would produce a stark and unhealthy regional divide in the next parliament.
 

firehawk12

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,450
The much bigger problem I see is that even if this issue never blows up and it simply simmers as a vaguely sketchy thing, it plays into the narrative that "Trudeau is just another politician" and that Real Change™ was a sham (see also: lying about electoral reform, and perceived lack of follow up on indigenous issues). The danger here is that the core reason the Liberals won was because they turned out all these new voters, young, and indigenous people that hadn't voted before, and if those new voters are disaffected and stay home, then that's millions of Liberal votes that that party got in 2015 that vaporize.
Canada is ripe for a populist leader to basically sweep the board because right now the "pox on both your houses" narrative is basically low hanging fruit at this point.

I just hope it's more Sanders/Corbyn than Trump/Duterte/Bolsonaro when it happens.
 

gutter_trash

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,621
Montreal
Last time I checked, valiant Canadians decided to vote NO in 1995 and 1980.

Brexit however was infected by Russia backed UKIP Nigel Farage and social media fud

Corbyn is the worst thing to ever happen to Labour
 

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,072
Nightmare scenario is Bernier ugh.
Last time I checked, valiant Canadians decided to vote NO in 1995 and 1980.

Brexit however was infected by Russia backed UKIP Nigel Farage and social media fud

Corbyn is the worst thing to ever happen to Labour
There was a ton of fuckery there. People got lied to so bad and now they're too proud to admit it.

Except for the politicians that want the resultant disaster capitalism.
 

Vamphuntr

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,290
Last time I checked, valiant Canadians decided to vote NO in 1995 and 1980.

Brexit however was infected by Russia backed UKIP Nigel Farage and social media fud

Corbyn is the worst thing to ever happen to Labour
Valiant Canadians also cheated, stole and wasted millions in taxpayer money to boost their score in Quebec after 1995. Those good folks were the Liberal party of Canada :)
 

Azzanadra

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,033
Canada
I don't think SNCgate will even have much of an impact on the voting. The average voter doesn't know who JWR is, doesn't know what SNC-Lavalin is and doesn't know how the judicial system is supposed to work. People will have heard there's some kind of "scandal" going on, but won't be able to describe what it's about.

Elections right now are won by railing against immigrants and the "elites", not by palace intrigues (though it's covered in a way by the "elites" part).
Ehh I have to disagree. The average voter does not care about the details, if they hear about some "scandal" they will go to the polls with the mindset of "corrupt Liberals at it again!". Today most people can't even properly articulate what AdScam was. I think with SNC Lavalin, its easy to break it down to "corrupt Liberals" and "bribing dictators" as soundbites, and often that's enough to sway your average joe/jane.
 

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,072
Ehh I have to disagree. The average voter does not care about the details, if they hear about some "scandal" they will go to the polls with the mindset of "corrupt Liberals at it again!". Today most people can't even properly articulate what AdScam was. I think with SNC Lavalin, its easy to break it down to "corrupt Liberals" and "bribing dictators" as soundbites, and often that's enough to sway your average joe/jane.
Yeah that's how I see it too.

A lot of voters already assume they're corrupt anyway.

Few care about the details, even less would understand them anyway.

I was blue in the face arguing about Omar Khadr with people but it was no face.

"Trudeau gave a terrorist millions!"
 

weirder

Avenger
Oct 31, 2017
2,664
🇨🇦 🌎 🌌
The SNC thing reminds me of Chrétien's Liberals in a good way.

Speaking of the pipeline the NEB review should be coming out this week. Can't wait for the commenters who all of sudden find their indigenous peoples concerns again.
 

firehawk12

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,450
You were doing so well and then this ...
Ford's dismantling Ontario and we're just going to let it happen, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I actually wouldn't be surprised if somehow Mad Max was able to worm his way back to the CPC and take on the leadership mantle by basically appealing to the alt-right crowd he's gotten now with his splinter group.
 

Zyzomys

Member
Dec 5, 2017
156
Ottawa Canada
Ford's dismantling Ontario and we're just going to let it happen, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I actually wouldn't be surprised if somehow Mad Max was able to worm his way back to the CPC and take on the leadership mantle by basically appealing to the alt-right crowd he's gotten now with his splinter group.
Ford is your problem. We have our own self grown issues in Quebec. 🤗
 

djkimothy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,900
If it wasn’t for the JWD scandal, need to remind ourselves that a caravan of racists are hitting cities and ending in Ottawa soon enough.

 

bremon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,040
I’m in the middle of where that convoy is talked about quite fondly. What a waste of money and time that trek is.
 

Roke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,050
Canada
I hadn't realized there had been reports naming him directly as the person attempting to influence the SNC-Lavalin charges.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
903
Part of the strategy of having a fall guy is that they fall on their sword and take the blame. Here Butts is explicitly saying he didn’t pressure the AG, but he’s resigning anyway. Doesn’t this give room for opposition politicians to keep on this then to keep looking for the truth in who did pressure the AG (whether Butts or other)?
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
903
He’s trying to misdirect or reframe the debate by saying there was speculation that he had pressured the AG. Actually there was speculation that Trudeau had pressured the AG.
 

Roke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,050
Canada
Part of the strategy of having a fall guy is that they fall on their sword and take the blame. Here Butts is explicitly saying he didn’t pressure the AG, but he’s resigning anyway. Doesn’t this give room for opposition politicians to keep on this then to keep looking for the truth in who did pressure the AG (whether Butts or other)?
Yeah, I was going to say I don't think I'm the most politically astute person but I don't think this helps things. It doesn't seem to make it look as if everything going on was above board. If there was nothing untoward going on surely an open investigation or inquiry would be preferable to losing your right-hand man without anything being cleared up.

He’s trying to misdirect or reframe the debate by saying there was speculation that he had pressured the AG. Actually there was speculation that Trudeau had pressured the AG.
and given Trudeau's comments the other day about JWR asking him if he was directing her this is a possibility.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,026
God fucking damnit Trudeau, all you had to do with keep your powder dry for another year and you’d have kept those dipshit conservatives out for sure. Now, who the fuck knows what this will do.

Politicians and their self inflicted Ls man.... what the fuck
 

Tamerlane

Member
Oct 27, 2017
99
God fucking damnit Trudeau, all you had to do with keep your powder dry for another year and you’d have kept those dipshit conservatives out for sure. Now, who the fuck knows what this will do.

Politicians and their self inflicted Ls man.... what the fuck
They can't help themselves... and now that electoral reform was never passed the cons actually have a chance to take control again.
 

ContraWars

Member
Oct 25, 2017
949
Canada
Meh. Butts is probably just at that point in his life where he wants to quit and go on max pogey like the rest of his people. Down with the causeway!
 

firehawk12

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,450
Nothing in public, but it almost seem wink wink nudge nudge on the twitter verse.

also... ;)

lol

God fucking damnit Trudeau, all you had to do with keep your powder dry for another year and you’d have kept those dipshit conservatives out for sure. Now, who the fuck knows what this will do.

Politicians and their self inflicted Ls man.... what the fuck
Ask Liberals not to help their corporate buddies? Yeah.