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Canada PoliERA |OT| Two Years of Sunny Days? That’s Scheer Madness!

Oct 25, 2017
2,278
Toronto
Really tight numbers so far: 11 PCs, 9 Greens, 6 Liberals leading or elected, with the one by-election still to come (based on the numbers the Greens are getting in Charlottetown, though, I think the prediction that this is a likely Green win is correct).
That's quite the result there. Will be interesting to see how it plays out alliance wise, and who backs who for control over the Minority government.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,751
Canada
Looks like CBC is predicting a PC minority government in PEI, though I doubt if they established one that it would manage to survive without stripping away every reason people voted for them in the first place.
So if the result holds through the rest of the night, I see them trying to do something typically conservative, lose a confidence vote and the Greens lead a minority with Liberal support and confidence.
 
There are one or two places that could switch, but currently it's 12-9-5, with one seat yet to be decided (but I would say favouring the Greens). There are two Green seats where I'm pretty sure the advance poll isn't in yet and the Liberals might still win, and similarly one Tory seat where the Liberals could win, but it's not likely.

I'm sad for Wade MacLauchlan, who governed well but ended up losing his seat. I both studied at UPEI while Wade was president and worked for him when he was writing his book, and he's a great guy and brought a very high intellectual caliber to politics. But it's a clean break for him. I'd say that Heath MacDonald is going to be the next Liberal leader.

Very good result for the Greens -- only disappointing in comparison to some of the wilder scenarios floated, especially by the last poll. They've also got all but one of the women in the legislature.

The Tories won decisively in most of the ridings they won, but weirdly didn't come all that close to winning most of the ridings that they didn't. Looks like they'll be the first-ever minority government.

Looks like CBC is predicting a PC minority government in PEI, though I doubt if they established one that it would manage to survive without stripping away every reason people voted for them in the first place.
So if the result holds through the rest of the night, I see them trying to do something typically conservative, lose a confidence vote and the Greens lead a minority with Liberal support and confidence.
The Island PCs are very much in the Red Tory tradition, for the most part. Dennis King isn't an ideologue, so I wouldn't expect him to start pushing unpopular conservative ideas; he pretty much ran on the opposite of that, he was conspicuously moderate.
 
The only outstanding result is Charlottetown-West Royalty, where currently the Green candidate, Gavin Hall, leads with 529 votes to Liberal Gordon McNeilly's 380. The advance poll still hasn't come in, and given the low vote count (and the examples from the other Charlottetown ridings) it must be huge. McNeilly could still win, and would be the first non-white MLA in Island history if he did.

Ironically, if that happened, it would be the reverse of what happened to McNeilly four years ago when he ran for the NDP and lead the entire night only to get crushed by the advance poll, which put the Liberal in the lead.
 
I would guess that, once the by-election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough is held, the legislature will be 12 PC, 9 Green, 6 Liberal.

Well as a Green, this result certainly is disappointing.
I'm sure it's disappointing in comparison to the hopes raised of actually winning the most seats, but this is a big, big win for the Green Party on PEI. It's very rare to go from nothing to government in a single election, as well.

Prior to this election there were only three non-PC/Liberal MLAs elected in the entire history of the province, and two of those were Green MLAs elected in the last four years.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,278
Toronto
Another Conservative government? Another turfed Liberal party?

Notice how nobody is screaming bloody murder though? I wonder why that is, maybe it's because it turns out we actually don't mind Conservatives that are actually fucking Conservative at heart, instead of regressive neo-cons with no plans other than burn it all to the ground. But of course, that can't be the answer. Because obviously this place is a single-minded leftist hivemind who only cares about ensuring that right wing governments of any stripe don't get elected.

We can't whatsoever under any circumstances be acknowledged that our hatred of the big "C" Conservatives at the Federal and Provincial Levels across many provinces isn't because they are Conservative, but because of how as of late, world-wide the entire ideology has been drifting towards dangerous populist policies with no sensible scientific backing behind them.

So move along with your trolling.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
1,751
Canada
The Island PCs are very much in the Red Tory tradition, for the most part. Dennis King isn't an ideologue, so I wouldn't expect him to start pushing unpopular conservative ideas; he pretty much ran on the opposite of that, he was conspicuously moderate.
Unless you mention the carbon tax or carbon pricing, which was the primary point of differentiation from other options and the only point he loses his congeniality about.
He’ll make a play to attack it at the margins if not gamble on actually joining other provinces in going after the feds about it, bet on it. And if he doesn’t, the vote he got is likely to turn on him.

Another Conservative government? Another turfed Liberal party?

Glad you’re happy about folks electing parties with members that privately (and openly, on occasion) wish I was dead. Not that it has much to do with this election, since none of what excites you about Conservatives will be possible in a minority government, unless he wants to swiftly lose his government.
 
Unless you mention the carbon tax or carbon pricing, which was the primary point of differentiation from other options and the only point he loses his congeniality about. He’ll make a play to attack it at the margins if not gamble on actually joining other provinces in going after the feds about it, bet on it. And if he doesn’t, the vote he got is likely to turn on him.
No successful Tory leader in PEI history has ever faced a grassroots rebellion on a policy issue. He took them (narrowly) back to power; they're more than satisfied with that.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,751
Canada
Wait PR died too? God damn it.
If by “died”, you mean got yet another majority but was set up to fail via a government imposed technicality? Yes.

No successful Tory leader in PEI history has ever faced a grassroots rebellion on a policy issue. He took them (narrowly) back to power; they're more than satisfied with that.
One could argue that with so many abnormalities to conventional island politics going on there, the past is no indicator of anything. This is PEI’s first minority government since 1890 when the Liberals and Tories tied. It goes without saying that party loyalists wouldn’t revolt against a majority when they can get what they voted for more often than not.
This is a whole different situation and I don’t think Tory voters there are going to appreciate having the issues they voted them in on (scrapping PEI’s carbon tax plan being one of them) scaled that far back just to prevent a possible Green-Liberal coalition.
 
Oct 30, 2017
9,946
London
If by “died”, you mean got yet another majority but was set up to fail via a government imposed technicality? Yes.


One could argue that with so many abnormalities to conventional island politics going on there, the past is no indicator of anything. This is PEI’s first minority government since 1890 when the Liberals and Tories tied. It goes without saying that party loyalists wouldn’t revolt against a majority when they can get what they voted for more often than not.
This is a whole different situation and I don’t think Tory voters there are going to appreciate having the issues they voted them in on (scrapping PEI’s carbon tax plan being one of them) scaled that far back just to prevent a possible Green-Liberal coalition.
Would they even be able to pass a bill scrapping the PEI carbon tax? Seems like a dumb hill to die on.
 
This is a whole different situation and I don’t think Tory voters there are going to appreciate having the issues they voted them in on (scrapping PEI’s carbon tax plan being one of them) scaled that far back just to prevent a possible Green-Liberal coalition.
The Tories weren’t voted in on scrapping the carbon tax. Their platform was barely emphasized (as with most of the parties; this wasn’t an ideological campaign on any side). Which is the norm in Island elections. There hasn’t been an election that was really strongly about a sharp ideological contrast since 1970, when the Comprehensive Development Plan was at issue.

King is king now. He won (albeit narrowly) an election after they were out of power for twelve years. He can write his own ticket, as far as the faithful are concerned.

And minority governments do not cause trouble for their leaders, generally, at the caucus level, because parties instinctively band together to stay in power.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,356
No, the P.E.I. PCs didn’t win a ‘minority government’ last night

Oh, come on. Do we really have to go through this again, Canada? (And specifically, Canadian media outlets, all of whom should, by this point, know better?)

On Tuesday night, Prince Edward Island voters elected 12 Progressive Conservatives, eight Greens and six Liberals, filling a total of 26 seats in the legislature, with one set to remain vacant for the next few months due to the sudden — and tragic — death of Green hopeful Josh Underhay just days before the election.

And while it is absolutely 100 per cent accurate to say that the Progressive Conservatives won the most seats, the same basic math makes it clear that 12 seats is not a majority, and that at the moment, PC Leader Dennis King cannot claim — not, that is, with certainty — that he’ll be able to command the confidence of the House.

In fact, as armchair parliamentary strategists are undoubtedly already making a concerted effort to point out, it’s not even a guarantee that King and his PC team will get the first chance to form government, as traditionally, the incumbent is given the opportunity to prove that he or she can carry on, although given the dismal showing by the Liberals — whose own leader lost his seat to the Tory blue wave — it’s doubtful they’ll want to delay the inevitable.

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