If the NDP lose that seat, the hot takes on their election chances are going to be outta this world.
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Canada PoliERA |OT| Two Years of Sunny Days? That’s Scheer Madness!
- Thread starter Caz
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Now he's saying he's sticking around until June.
As always, I don't think one by-election is indicative of any broader trends, but depending on when this by-election is, the NDP will have up to a year or so to be ready (six months until Mulcair retires + Trudeau then has to call a by-election within six months after that). If they aren't organized for that, I don't think it'd be unfair to extrapolate a little from that to how well their Quebec organization is going for 2019.
Plus, on the flip side, the Liberal strategy for winning in 2019 is Atlantic Canada + Quebec + urban Ontario + BC (with spots around Manitoba). If they want to pull that off, they'll need to win seats like Outremont.
As always, I don't think one by-election is indicative of any broader trends, but depending on when this by-election is, the NDP will have up to a year or so to be ready (six months until Mulcair retires + Trudeau then has to call a by-election within six months after that). If they aren't organized for that, I don't think it'd be unfair to extrapolate a little from that to how well their Quebec organization is going for 2019.
Plus, on the flip side, the Liberal strategy for winning in 2019 is Atlantic Canada + Quebec + urban Ontario + BC (with spots around Manitoba). If they want to pull that off, they'll need to win seats like Outremont.
I'm a "by-elections don't matter unless it's a minority government" person but serious commentators like Chantal Hebert have said the recent ones are bad omens for the CPC and NDP so maybe I should take them more seriously.
I have a hard time seeing the Liberals losing in 2019 without some catastrophic blunder and even then I'd think they'd end up forming a minority government. The CPC are an empty shell with a low ceiling and I think Singh's going to have a hard time keeping hold of the more nationalist part of the Quebec NDP vote while appealing to the rest of the country.
I have a hard time seeing the Liberals losing in 2019 without some catastrophic blunder and even then I'd think they'd end up forming a minority government. The CPC are an empty shell with a low ceiling and I think Singh's going to have a hard time keeping hold of the more nationalist part of the Quebec NDP vote while appealing to the rest of the country.
If Mulcair left at Xmas and the NDP lost a relatively near term byelection, my hot take would be that it didn't matter, because the party would have been forced to run on the old Layton platform instead of whatever is likely being developed by the new leadership group.
The fact that Mulcair is staying until June is indicative to me that he's working with Singh to stay on until Singh feels ready to campaign with a new Singh crafted NDP strategy and probably a good star candidate for the riding.
In this scenario it would actually be a pretty bad loss if the NDP couldn't retain the riding, because this would mean that even though the NDP were putting their best foot forward they couldn't convince voters to support their candidate.
My belief is that Singh is likely to pivot the NDP to being even more of a progressive urban party than they already are, and so would be targeting urban ridings all across the country. This means they need to win seats like Outremont as well. The Liberals and NDP are headed for a collision course in the cities.
The fact that Mulcair is staying until June is indicative to me that he's working with Singh to stay on until Singh feels ready to campaign with a new Singh crafted NDP strategy and probably a good star candidate for the riding.
In this scenario it would actually be a pretty bad loss if the NDP couldn't retain the riding, because this would mean that even though the NDP were putting their best foot forward they couldn't convince voters to support their candidate.
My belief is that Singh is likely to pivot the NDP to being even more of a progressive urban party than they already are, and so would be targeting urban ridings all across the country. This means they need to win seats like Outremont as well. The Liberals and NDP are headed for a collision course in the cities.
Building on what I think Singh is going for, I wouldn't be surprised to see Singh sort of bail on Quebec nationalists if he thinks he can resultantly make bigger gains in GTA, Metro Vancouver, Montreal and other urban ridings.
Speaking of the NDP...there was this absurd proposal:
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...gh-is-next-battle-for-hearts-of-canada-s-left
If Singh thinks a coalition with the folks who have no problem buddying up with Rebel, he might as well hand 2019 to Trudeau on a silver platter.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...gh-is-next-battle-for-hearts-of-canada-s-left
If Singh thinks a coalition with the folks who have no problem buddying up with Rebel, he might as well hand 2019 to Trudeau on a silver platter.
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Ask Nick Clegg how that went. lol
Honestly though, the NDP is at best a protest party for the next generation if not forever, so their only real option for implementing policy is making praying for a minority government and making confidence deals.
That's the right answer from Singh but you need to actually get a good mix of policy lest you end up like the LibDems in UK.
Bah. Beaten by firehawk12
Bah. Beaten by firehawk12
this right here is why I dislike the NDP.
thinking about Party First even if it means selling its soul to the Conservatives just to topple Liberals.
Remember when Jack Layton colluded with Stephen Harper to bring down Paul Martin? those were fun 9 years of Harper rule, wasn't it?
I've met a radical NDP supporter from Nova Scotia who said that she would vote Conservative just to see the Liberals go down. Such destructive mindset
in Montreal: Ethnic Minorities and Persons of Colour vote Liberal overwhelmingly. It's young white Anglos and Francophone soft-nationalists who lean NDP federally in this city.
So the Urban strategy may work in Toronto or Vancouver but it will not work in Montreal for Singh,
Justin Trudeau is the embodiment of the traditional Liberal brand in Montreal that has the back of ethnic minorities who love Canada.
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How does hypothetically "supporting the Conservatives to topple a Trudeau government" get transformed into the notion that the NDP would enter into a coalition with the Conservatives? lol.
Should Singh be stating that he'd support the Liberals under any and all circumstances? If there is some terrible scandal that encompasses a future minority Liberal government should the NDP be obligated to prop up this government just because the Liberals are to the left the Conservatives? That's dumb.
Hypothetically supporting the Conservatives to defeat the Liberals is a rational policy when you recognize that the demographic groups of some NDP supporters are treated/ignored equally by both the Liberals and Conservative parties (see the chant: "Lib, Tory, same old story") and so from their point of view the differences between the parties are marginal and doesn't really matter which is in power.
Should Singh be stating that he'd support the Liberals under any and all circumstances? If there is some terrible scandal that encompasses a future minority Liberal government should the NDP be obligated to prop up this government just because the Liberals are to the left the Conservatives? That's dumb.
Hypothetically supporting the Conservatives to defeat the Liberals is a rational policy when you recognize that the demographic groups of some NDP supporters are treated/ignored equally by both the Liberals and Conservative parties (see the chant: "Lib, Tory, same old story") and so from their point of view the differences between the parties are marginal and doesn't really matter which is in power.
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NDP and CPC both want Canada to become a bi-polarized country between Left versus Right and both have colluded to destroy the Liberals.
Harper was salivating with that Two Party dream scenery without the LPC in the landscape.
Harper was salivating with that Two Party dream scenery without the LPC in the landscape.
I still think Nick Clegg is the worst British politician now, and that's after Cameron and May fucked up the country as a whole. lol
Paul Martin sucked and lost the subsequent election though, so it's not like Jack Layton personally assassinated him or something. :p
Yeah but Harper continued to play Layton like a fiddle until 2011,
Harper wanted to the total obliteration of the Liberals and he found a partner in Jack Layton who would help from the Left Flank.
Ironically, the Trudeau hating Harper was defeated by the Son of Trudeau hahahaha
Harper wanted to the total obliteration of the Liberals and he found a partner in Jack Layton who would help from the Left Flank.
Ironically, the Trudeau hating Harper was defeated by the Son of Trudeau hahahaha
Right so the NDP want a two party system, and in order to accomplish this, the NDP has decided to strongly push for Proportional Representation, which is actually the antithesis of a two party system. Gutter Logic™
In actuality we know from the Australian example that Ranked Ballot strengthen the entrenched parties and help create two party system, which is why the Liberals support that system so strongly. This is why the Trudeau broke his electoral reform promise when it became apparent the Liberals couldn't bend the committee into recommending that system.
In actuality we know from the Australian example that Ranked Ballot strengthen the entrenched parties and help create two party system, which is why the Liberals support that system so strongly. This is why the Trudeau broke his electoral reform promise when it became apparent the Liberals couldn't bend the committee into recommending that system.
I like that idea. No middle of the road party that pushes social change to cover up its support for business as usual economics.
This would inevitably lead to the NDP becoming like the UK Labor party but in the short term it'd be great.
It's remarkable how the UK ended up with zero effective political parties within 7 years (Well, maybe 1 if you like the SNP). Clegg kills the LibDems with the coalition he got nothing out of, Corbyn gives Labour it's post-Blair/Iraq deathblow by being completely ineffectual except against one of the worst campaign by an incumbent government I've ever seen, and Cameron kills the Tories with the Brexit referendum he doesn't believe in.
Though the US is also going through a zero competent political parties phase and unfortunately for them the parties are tied directly into their institutions.
The amazing thing is that they also had the "Bloc" equivalent with the SNP basically syphoning off votes from both sides as well, effectively killing Labour in the short to medium term. The doubly amazing thing is that the Conservatives will still win by default because of FPTP even though no one likes any of the parties.
Yay democracy! lol
Honestly I think Trudeau gets at least a 10%+ bonus in the polls due to the UK and USA governments being complete and utter trainwrecks at the moment. People are thankful for what we have. I know multiple people that had positive ideas, or even near term plans to move to the USA that have changed their minds.
British politics is complete garbage. I don't understand how the Tories even manage to stay ahead in FPTP. Where did all of the New Labour votes go?!
Corbyn hate + SNP. I assume they absorbed a lot of disaffected LibDem voters though.
Perhaps. I still find it strange that New Labour went from a power-house during the Blair era to a shadow of its former self. Then again, the same thing happened when Thatcher came to power, and took many years before Labour went New Labour.
Serious question: What does Singh expect the NDP and CPC to get done that would be supported by both parties? The CPC aren't in favor of electoral reform since they stand to lose the most from a MMP or a ranked ballot system, stopping pipelines are a no-go, so what major policy will the two even work on?
I don't think they have any. It's an appeal to reasonability, to be seen as the least partisan party available. The NDP have a long history of trying to brand themselves apart from the Liberals, this just seems to be part of that campaign to do it, to say to CPC voters and politicians who are quietly unhappy with the direction of Scheer that they're a party willing to listen to good ideas, no matter where they come from. It's not likely to be an effective strategy, but I can see the logic in it.
Losing Scotland really killed Brown, and then the party began to divide between the neoliberal side and the populist side after Miliband centrist campaign failed to move any Tory seats. Of course I'm a hippy leftist, so I'm in the "Tony Blair is a war criminal" camp like a lot of "Corbynistas" which explains where Labour is now. lol
It's also screwed right now because the last election was probably as much about Brexit as it was about the Conservatives (Labour gaining Tory seats, Tories gaining SNP seats), so who knows what the next election might look like and whether the Labour gains are real. I mean there was a point when Labour and Tory MPs wanted to quit their parties to form a new third centrist party. lol
It's like when Layton betrayed a nation and worked with Harper to take down the angelic Martin government - you ask for a big legislative ask and vote with whoever is willing to give it to you. Since the NDP will probably never form government, that's probably the most they can ask for.
To be seen as the party that makes Parliament work for those disaffected by the current Liberal government. Mind you, Trudeau probably isn't shedding enough left leaning votes for Singh to make much of a difference for quite a while. I doubt he'd bow down to Scheer on bended knee, but I don't see Scheer paying such a team up anything but lip service if it did happen. Appearing soft to the left won't help him with his base, and he has enough issues.
Today in incredibly stupid Conservative messaging:
That's Andrew Scheer, whose non-elected, non-Parliamentary work experience literally entirely consists of a few months working at a friend's insurance company when he was 25, saying he has more "real-life" experience than Trudeau, whom the Conservatives were disparaging as a mere drama teacher throughout the last election.
This is why I think that picking Singh over Angus was such a bad idea. Angus would have pushed them in a more populist direction, and made them competitive in CPC ridings. Singh doesn't bring anything new to the table, beyond maybe making them competitive in a few suburban GTA/Vancouver ridings (which, as we just saw in Scarborough, is no sure thing). The Jack Layton coalition made sense in 2006-2011, when the Liberals were in bad shape and there were tonnes of votes to be picked up from their disaffected voters, but right now, it's not the most viable option for them. Maybe if this were, say, 2026, and the Liberals were looking tired and old, it could work, but I don't see them being successful at it now.
Wow.
I mean, as a Liberal, I appreciate the work Singh is doing to position us as the only real alternative to the Conservatives, but it's still a dumb thing for him to admit two years away from the next election.
Wait, are you saying that the Liberals would be 10 points behind where they are now if it weren't for the US and UK? Because I'm skeptical of that claim. I'm sure it doesn't hurt to be compared to such disasters, but I don't think they're getting a bump from 30% to 40% just from that.
That's thinking too far into the future. Right now, he's just trying to make it sound like they'd at least have options in a minority situation. We all know that's not the case, but when you're in the state the NDP is in, he's got to try something new.
Of course, it'll probably backfire, since it just makes him sound desperate, but at this point, they don't have much to lose.
That's Andrew Scheer, whose non-elected, non-Parliamentary work experience literally entirely consists of a few months working at a friend's insurance company when he was 25, saying he has more "real-life" experience than Trudeau, whom the Conservatives were disparaging as a mere drama teacher throughout the last election.
This is why I think that picking Singh over Angus was such a bad idea. Angus would have pushed them in a more populist direction, and made them competitive in CPC ridings. Singh doesn't bring anything new to the table, beyond maybe making them competitive in a few suburban GTA/Vancouver ridings (which, as we just saw in Scarborough, is no sure thing). The Jack Layton coalition made sense in 2006-2011, when the Liberals were in bad shape and there were tonnes of votes to be picked up from their disaffected voters, but right now, it's not the most viable option for them. Maybe if this were, say, 2026, and the Liberals were looking tired and old, it could work, but I don't see them being successful at it now.
Wow.
I mean, as a Liberal, I appreciate the work Singh is doing to position us as the only real alternative to the Conservatives, but it's still a dumb thing for him to admit two years away from the next election.
Wait, are you saying that the Liberals would be 10 points behind where they are now if it weren't for the US and UK? Because I'm skeptical of that claim. I'm sure it doesn't hurt to be compared to such disasters, but I don't think they're getting a bump from 30% to 40% just from that.
That's thinking too far into the future. Right now, he's just trying to make it sound like they'd at least have options in a minority situation. We all know that's not the case, but when you're in the state the NDP is in, he's got to try something new.
Of course, it'll probably backfire, since it just makes him sound desperate, but at this point, they don't have much to lose.
Teaching doesn't count as experience, especially if it's a fine arts teacher.
I suspect the by-election will happen quickly in the summer, since the parties will have so much lead time.
Nothing of consequence is going to come of it, but the Ethics Commissioner found Justin Trudeau violated sections 5, 11, 12, and 21 of the Conflict of Interest Act with his vacation last year.
With the way the media had been reporting on the investigation it seemed like he was only going to be found to have erred by taking the helicopter top the island without prior permission. I'm surprised Ms. Dawson's findings were much broader than that.
On section 11:
With the way the media had been reporting on the investigation it seemed like he was only going to be found to have erred by taking the helicopter top the island without prior permission. I'm surprised Ms. Dawson's findings were much broader than that.
On section 11:
Re: Conservative messaging. I don't think the CPC can pull it off, especially since Scheer's basically done nothing but be a politician for a career, but I think attacking Trudeau for his entitlement is the only decent avenue of attack right now. Framing it "world experience" is pretty dumb though, especially since the party previously attacked Trudeau for "merely" being a (gasp) drama teacher.
He clearly lacks self-awareness between the "a place to store canoes and paddles" remarks, the unethical Christmas vacation that was only disclosed after the press found out about, andtalking about how his dad used his influence to get his brother out of drug charges when Malik Scott asked Trudeau about the effect possession charges on people like himself. Throw in Morneau's conflict of interest issues and unless something changes that's how I'd fight the 2019 election.
I think it would be a more effective line of attack for the NDP.
He clearly lacks self-awareness between the "a place to store canoes and paddles" remarks, the unethical Christmas vacation that was only disclosed after the press found out about, andtalking about how his dad used his influence to get his brother out of drug charges when Malik Scott asked Trudeau about the effect possession charges on people like himself. Throw in Morneau's conflict of interest issues and unless something changes that's how I'd fight the 2019 election.
I think it would be a more effective line of attack for the NDP.
That's a good way to frame it. He'll also be painted as an hypocrite since he keeps talking about the middle class while in the news he's always linked to billionaires either as friend or trying to defend them like Aga -Khan, Barry Sherman, Stephen Bronfman and so on. It doesn't help that Morneau's tax reform supposedly hurt small businesses and that Morneau keeps getting in troubles for his control and shares of Morneau Shepell.
I think the career angle is pretty weak like you said. Scheer was a waiter for a while and worked as a clerk in an insurance company which is not much better than a drama teacher so that angle of attack is dumb.
Gods, the NDP really wants me to stop voting for them, or what?
What a terrible idea. The NDP and the CPC are diametrically opposed in values, both social and economic.
My hot take is that Singh wants to appear all reasonable and non-partisan by saying he'd work with the Conservatives, but... it just doesn't make sense. Needless to say, I'd rather have the Liberals in power again over the CPC in a bizarre, nonsensical (and for now, mercifully hypothetical and unlikely) coalition with the NDP.
This Aga Khan thing is again so Liberal that it's funny. The only thing that saves them is that I'm sure many CPC millionaires have similar billionaire friends that prevents them from directly attacking Trudeau without drawing too much attention to themselves.
I've resigned myself to the fact that the NDP will never form government and will at best be a regional protest party, so the only gains they can hope to make are on specific bills that they can pass. Besides, they could theoretically work with the CPC on a non-confidence bill that presumably both parties agree on - say, more funding for law enforcement in return for more funding for drug treatment options. This is all theoretical anyway since I assume Trudeau will autopilot to another victory anyway.
Seems like Jason Kenney has begun his pivot to the centre now that he's secured the leadership. though I do wish more people in opposition would do this. Holding the government to account and being in opposition does not mean mindlessly opposing the good stuff too:
If any of their ministers had been done something similar surely somebody in opposition would have found out given how much the Harper government was disliked. The reason this whole thing kicked off was the PMO first wouldn't say where the Trudeau family was vacationing, and then finally disclosed it was the Bahamas, and then somebody told columnist Chris Selley that they were a guest on the Aga Khan's island. Harper had more than enough enemies to have that sort of thing become a big deal really quickly.
If any of their ministers had been done something similar surely somebody in opposition would have found out given how much the Harper government was disliked. The reason this whole thing kicked off was the PMO first wouldn't say where the Trudeau family was vacationing, and then finally disclosed it was the Bahamas, and then somebody told columnist Chris Selley that they were a guest on the Aga Khan's island. Harper had more than enough enemies to have that sort of thing become a big deal really quickly.
I mean there was the Bev Oda thing, but it wouldn't surprise me if Conservative MPs had billionaire friends that they get "gifts" from from time to time. I assume we'll see how it plays out on the campaign trail, but I also assume we'll forget about this in a year anyway. lol
Rosie Barton and At Issue kinda tore Trudeau a new asshole today, wow. Bravo to them all.
I'm sure they'll try that angle eventually anyways. Coming off as hypocritical hasn't exactly been a problem for them so far.
The NDP does quite well provincially in regions where the Liberals are either a Tory rebrand (looking at you, BC) or expended every ounce of political capital they had and died a merciful death (looking at you, Saskatchewan).
But federally, I've come to the same resignation. Really, the only hope that the NDP has federally is that the Liberals die swiftly and painfully like they did provincially that leaves a vacuum on the left that they're ready to fill, but a blind spot Canadians have regarding federal parties and their history of bad behaviour coupled with a lack of money in NDP coffers seem to indicate that won't happen any time soon.
If he can make this attitude last, then absolutely, I'm with you. But you'll forgive my pessimism for thinking that isn't likely.
I'm sure they'll try that angle eventually anyways. Coming off as hypocritical hasn't exactly been a problem for them so far.
The NDP does quite well provincially in regions where the Liberals are either a Tory rebrand (looking at you, BC) or expended every ounce of political capital they had and died a merciful death (looking at you, Saskatchewan).
But federally, I've come to the same resignation. Really, the only hope that the NDP has federally is that the Liberals die swiftly and painfully like they did provincially that leaves a vacuum on the left that they're ready to fill, but a blind spot Canadians have regarding federal parties and their history of bad behaviour coupled with a lack of money in NDP coffers seem to indicate that won't happen any time soon.
If he can make this attitude last, then absolutely, I'm with you. But you'll forgive my pessimism for thinking that isn't likely.
The funny thing about Saskatchewan is that by joining forces to defeat the NDP, they've effectively killed the Liberal and Conservative brands and handed the NDP the victory lap election campaign because there's no one else to vote for if you don't like the Saskatchewan Party. :p
I expect the Alberta NDP to seem like a figment of our collective imagination in a few years time. Just like the Ontario NDP government that no one likes to think about. lol
Come on now, a photo op with the Aga Khan before or after the man spoke to a joint session of Parliament is not the same thing as accepting a vacation as a gift.
The "10-year itch" ensures that a majority of people won't like the Sask Party come the next election. Even the parties themselves are wise to it; why else do you think Brad Wall loaded up his last 4 years with every unpopular decision imaginable before abruptly quitting? It's simply the way of it here, to the point of being banal.
As for Alberta, the NDP should have all of Edmonton on lockdown given their obscene performance there and that takes them more than half the way to victory. Then there are parts of Calgary they can win if Liberal voters vote strategically against the UCP. To say nothing about Alberta's changing demographics. So for all the fear about what a UCP presents, the NDP definitely still has a shot at this. Especially if Kenney can't keep his social-conservatism boner in his pants and doesn't work quick to repair some light tears at the seams of his almost-new big tent party.
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For real right. It's refreshing to see a leader get called out for his screw up and just say "sorry won't do that again". In Trump's America he'd be attacking the ethics commissioner or whoever.
In Trumps america, he'd say it's fake new, call for the journalist to be beaten/fired, and move on. Trudeau probably has a similar view to his father: You don't have to like them or what they do, but they can be useful/play a key role.
Unsurprisingly, Canada abstained at the UN (only western country to do so along with Australia). In the grand scheme of things, it's probably better to no piss off you biggest trading partner for a pointless vote, no matter how morally bankrupt said partner currently is. But the Trudeeau government REALLY needs to stop acting like they're the guardians of peace, human rights, the environment, etc.
The only concrete thing they've done so far is to throw money at developping countries and NGOs. Everyone can do that. The Gulf dictatorships do it constantly...
ETA: LOL. Apparently, they were supposed to vote against but changed their mind at the last minute not to be perceived as a puppet after Trump's threat. No puppet!
The only concrete thing they've done so far is to throw money at developping countries and NGOs. Everyone can do that. The Gulf dictatorships do it constantly...
ETA: LOL. Apparently, they were supposed to vote against but changed their mind at the last minute not to be perceived as a puppet after Trump's threat. No puppet!
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I hate to break it to you, but we already live in a de facto 2-party system. 3rd parties here are window dressing that give us the illusion of choice that allows us to feel some sort of political superiority to the US, but across the country and in every province, politics is dominated by 2 parties almost exclusively and has been that way for generations. When one party falls out of favour in the provinces, it never comes back to prominence. EVER. At best, it merges with another and rebrands.
In its entire 150-year history, Canada's Parliament has formed governments from either the Liberals or whatever the modern permutation is of John A. Macdonald's original Liberal-Conservatives, which are themselves just Canadian evolutions of the classic Tory-Whig power struggle in the UK. The single exception was a coalition of pro-conscription Liberals and Conservatives called the Unionist Party during WWI.
No sense in being naive about it and I'm rather over the illusion. If you don't like that fact, there's a solution in electoral reform, but you'll be hard pressed to find enough people who will entertain that idea, as they'd rather not give up the illusion and admit we're not much better off in our electoral system than the Americans. One could even argue that the ever-present need for tactical voting and the institutionalization of the FPTP spoiler effect make it worse.
Where do you think all their voters came from?
Even if they couch their more abhorrent socially conservative views out of necessity, the end result of that is that the modern CPC doesn't really look dissimilar to the PC party that preceded them. The power of optics.
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