How can the Bloc be so high in Quebec? I honestly thought they were dead.
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Canadian Election 2019 |OT| One Long Year of Scheer Stupidity [Update: Liberal Minority Government]
- Thread starter Caz
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How can the Bloc be so high in Quebec? I honestly thought they were dead.
The Green Party has always been 'Boomers that recycle' party dominated by old fashioned environmentalist thinking (recycling!) that never advanced past the 'save the whales' era of the 90s.
Nothing has really changed, they're just getting a bit more media attention and scrutiny since the media obviously really wants to write about their 'Greens make breakthrough and overtake NDP' narrative that isn't gonna happen.
I kinda want to vote Green this time around, because climate change is the issue of our generation and should be dealt with as fast as possible, but I'm wondering if the Greens are still anti-OGM? I can't really support a party that is anti-science if that's the case.
The environment is so important! And you're right to say that climate change might be the issue of a generation. But social issues are also very important. Personally, I don't think it would do any real good to vote for a party that would (potentially) do progress on the environment front while doing real damage to important social issues.
Not really. The article itself is pointing out a lot of doublespeak on this.
So there's 2 possibilities:
1) She's doing the reverse of what Scheer is doing, trying to court right-wing votes with a headline that attracts by saying she wouldn't stop the abortion debate while the party reality is that such a situation isn't even possible, rather than Scheer's tactic of drawing moderates by saying he won't reopen the debate while the party reality is clear that they desperately want to.
2) She's attracting conservative candidates at the expense of her party's own written values.
Neither is good, since doublespeak isn't a laudable political tactic and the other is just.... blargh. But at least doublespeak isn't abhorrent, just reckless and dishonest.
I'm curious to see how that plays out, because it might cost her some candidates who actually adhere to the party's written values and think May's statements spit all over them.
No, party whips are a position that answer to the party caucus, not the leader alone, and the leader usually doesn't involve themselves in that practice as a matter of keeping their hands clean. "The leader made me do it" would otherwise be a headline every other day in the news.
But beyond that, May feels whipping votes takes power away from MPs to represent the needs of their constituencies and thinks control of the dialogue solely resides in candidate selection. It's largely been assumed that she's been feigning that she wouldn't whip votes because she was always a party of one and it was an empty statement because of that, so I can't say I'm terribly surprised of her position being no different than it was since she became party leader. Can't say I agree with her stance, since it allows a party to effectively be raided, but that's her stance nonetheless.
Don't read too much into that, given the numbers, I imagine there's a lot of undecideds that these polls aren't displaying.
I wouldn't worry about those types of particulars that can be ironed out at the next caucus after the election. There was a green candidate talking about GMO policy and after all the sciency stuff it came down to it's not as simple as GMO=Good or Monsanto=bad.
Greens are planning to take as much ground as possible this election. Be it from Con, Lib, NDP, whatever.
Then May is handing over the reins to the next generation.
If you're in it for the next cycle and the next generation and the green environment imperative then vote and fight for and get that ground now!
You know the colour and the shout.
Green!
Greens are planning to take as much ground as possible this election. Be it from Con, Lib, NDP, whatever.
Then May is handing over the reins to the next generation.
If you're in it for the next cycle and the next generation and the green environment imperative then vote and fight for and get that ground now!
You know the colour and the shout.
Green!
Deep sigh... I'm gonna be a mess these next couple weeks. I just want this over.
There's so much regional variation that it's hard to get a good picture. Frank Graes said on the weekend that MOE for most regionals are high so you will see volatility on those numbers. There just isn't a high enough sample size.
Courting SoCons is still less damaging to me then having a less progressive systematic vision of enviromental politics than the ndp. Can we cancel the greens yet?
Greens didn't take out the NDP, they're just dancing on the shambling mass that's left of it.
The NDP did this to themselves with poor leadership choices following the death of Jack Layton, no one else gets to claim responsibility for that.
Damn never thought of it that way.
That is sad.
Who knew that making deals with Harper and appointing a centrist leader like Mulcair would be a bad idea?
It was all mapped out to happen this way after centrism introduced to the NDP by (or at least popularized by) Roy Romanow proved to be politically advantageous for them. Those two camps would never be able to settle their hash without casualty, this just happened to be the worst case scenario.
When do we get the riding-by-riding polling or has that already been mapped out and glossed over in this thread?
We need to hash out the select ridings where NDP/Green votes can be excused as not endorsing a Scheer government and mass sell-off of Canadian resources to foreign interests amongst other assorted grifting priorities.
Polls of ridings are rarely done unless it's a battle ground riding. Election night is typically the poll that produces the comprehensive result.
The most recent poll of a specific riding are these.
These are unique for their own reasons.
Even if we don't have formal polling of specific ridings, we DO have projection aggregators like 338canada.com.
I would just like for folks to be able to rely on whichever of these sites is most reputable/accurate so they don't go blind "I'd like to vote NDP / I'd like to vote Green" in a riding that the Liberals can realistically win... or where the opposing non-Conservative party can feasibly win if the Liberals aren't competitive.
I live in a "Likely Liberal/LPC" riding, for instance. No chance I would even entertain voting for a different party here.
Riding by riding is pretty damn rare in Canada because there's just not that much money being spent in our elections to justify it. In the previous election in 2015 I only saw riding level polls for super tight three way races like Vancouver Granville.
This is why FPTP and strategic voting is annoyingly dumb in Canada. No one actually has a realistic sense of who is leading in their riding. For example you may hear that the Conservatives are ahead with the Liberals close behind in the national horse race poll, but in your own riding may have a history of electing the Bloc or NDP. A reflexive vote for the wrong party could result in the Conservatives winning.
Projection aggregators like 338canada.com are horseshit made up nonsense IMO. CBC's Grenier is also a charlatan that aggregates polls in an opaque way. He shouldn't be listened to either.
The best thing an 'ABC' voter without any riding level polling can do is look very closely at past historical results along with whoever has the momentum in their province level polls for a feel at who the best non-Conservative option is.
But at the moment we shouldn't even be that concerned with this sort of issue since the campaign hasn't even started yet. Who knows what will happen.
The NDP under Singh has moved further left than Layton's centrist kitchen table populism with progressive promises like a Wealth Tax and drug decriminalization (safe supply) so I'm pretty good with the direction they're at. *shrugs*
Yah, it's tough to do that on a per riding basis. The best thing you could do is look at your riding's history and make a best guess in terms of sentiment. Polling Canada will list polling aggregators but they just do rough seat projections. I don't think they comment on a specific riding. Grenier once mentioned that one method he uses to estimate chances is by applying today's national polling result to the results of the previous election. It's more of a shift in averages.
Just go out and vote. That's the important thing.
Just go out and vote. That's the important thing.
The messenger is equally important as the message, I think. Thing with Layton is that he was in equal parts smart as he was charismatic. With Singh, I feel like he's not quite comfortable with the role he's picked nor would he be able to navigate political pitfalls the way Layton could.
Can you honestly see Singh be as strong a leader as Layton ever was? I sure can't...
Sure?
Layton's breakthrough 2011 victory came after 4 elections of gradual improvement. He wasn't an overnight sensation.
At the moment I don't think the NDP should be in any rush to bail on Singh. It would only make sense if he's like a complete disaster on the campaign trail. Expectations are already rock bottom low so he'd have to be pretty damn bad.
Layton's breakthrough 2011 victory came after 4 elections of gradual improvement. He wasn't an overnight sensation.
At the moment I don't think the NDP should be in any rush to bail on Singh. It would only make sense if he's like a complete disaster on the campaign trail. Expectations are already rock bottom low so he'd have to be pretty damn bad.
He's been on the "campaign trail" since the day he won the leadership and had nothing to do except that because he wasn't an MP and did jack shit.
Wasn't that a big complaint from maritime NDP members, that he hadn't even gone out there to help
He also bombed the NDP's Finances by refusing to participate in standard fundraising activities.
I don't think the Bloc is ever going to be dead, because there's always going to be a core separatist vote that won't be swayed to join other parties. How many seats they get will wax and wane depending on support for other parties (and the NDP's decline in Quebec definitely helped the BQ).
The Bloc has been on life support since 2011.
Having lost their official party status for many years now, and since then going through so many bloody, never-ending internal fights, these poll results are definitely surprising me.
Actually, I can't remember having heard anything about the BQ recently.
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The BQ will die permanently when boomers and Gen X do. There's almost no appetite for separatism among younger generations to keep the party going long term and that's their defining characteristic. Heck, it barely hangs on with the generations it used to appeal to. From my vantage point, Quebec nationalism/separatism seems to be mostly in provincial political platforms as an empty gesture, knowing full well it will never happen, just to not drive away boomer voters who won't let the dream die.
Quebec politics is going to look quite different in 20-30 years, that much is guaranteed.
Like all fascists you blame some external enemy for your problems.
They started this under Harper, declaring that environmentalists were "domestic issue based extremism" and put them on a watchlist and had CSIS spy on them and privately brief the FF industry. All part of a strategy to discredit any environmental activism.
Having people snitch on each other is some Augusto Pinochet level shit.
Good! They are so volatile right now.
The only poll that matters is on election day. GO VOTE!
Let's be real outside of a few members the ndp are social Democrats. I wish they were proper demsocs but here we are
Hopefully there'll be a debate for my riding or something where I can see each of the candidates and try to gauge their thoughts on issues important to me. I just double checked the results from the 2015 election and it's nuts that NDP almost lost to CPC and the Liberal candidate had 27% of the vote still. I could actually see myself voting Liberal though and I don't except the NDP to perform as well this year.
Realistically it'll probably be too split between NDP/LIB and we'll end up with a Conservative MP.
Realistically it'll probably be too split between NDP/LIB and we'll end up with a Conservative MP.
Perhaps the attempt to move the ndp demsoc contributed to the crash and jump. If my encounters with socialists in the last few years are an indication of the experiences others have had, then no doubt they'd be turned off ndp.
They'd stray from policy and discussion to generic threats that would include my family and community. misappropriating support and being dismissive of the concerns of the indigenous community, on top of being personally insulted and threatened.
Fuckers were as bad as the worst encounters I had with hardcore racists.
Too bad they put all that on the ndp instead of their own party since the NDP isn't screaming stupid conspiracy 'neoliberal' shit, pretentiously pontificating about some thought experiment they had like it's a real indicator, on top of threatening violence against people. That stuff sticks though. It's going to be awhile before many trust NDP again. And it's not really their fault, in my case anyway. I just would not want to enable those demsoc people. Not yet. Not until they grow up a little.
They'd stray from policy and discussion to generic threats that would include my family and community. misappropriating support and being dismissive of the concerns of the indigenous community, on top of being personally insulted and threatened.
Fuckers were as bad as the worst encounters I had with hardcore racists.
Too bad they put all that on the ndp instead of their own party since the NDP isn't screaming stupid conspiracy 'neoliberal' shit, pretentiously pontificating about some thought experiment they had like it's a real indicator, on top of threatening violence against people. That stuff sticks though. It's going to be awhile before many trust NDP again. And it's not really their fault, in my case anyway. I just would not want to enable those demsoc people. Not yet. Not until they grow up a little.
It's got #ReportanAlbertan trending on local Twitter here and it's all Albertans dunking on how fucking shitty this all is. At least there's that.
Government's already out of money here from the huge tax cuts to corporations so the school and healthcare slashing has begun. Still have money to setup a fucking opaque snitchline.
The only people who actually think this is a good idea or warranted is the Kenney government. It's massively mocked even in Alberta.
They need to make their base feel afraid and persecuted.
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