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Sqrt

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Oct 26, 2017
5,880
Via Google Translate:

[Stock] recorded a rise of more than 10%. We announced consolidation in the second quarter the previous day (November 6), with sales of 33,729 million yen (17.6% increase compared with the same period of the previous year) and operating income of 5,010 million yen (2.9 times same) It seems that it got a favorable thing. Also, Nomura Securities Co., Ltd. has raised the target stock price from 3,000 yen to 3,300 yen.

According to the company, "Monster Hunter Double Cross" for the Nintendo Switch is steady, and "Ultra Street Fighter II" (for Nintendo Switch) smash hits. In addition, repeat sales such as "Monster Hunter Double Cross" (for 3DS) released in the previous term also contributed to improving earnings. Furthermore, licensing income using IP also pushed up profits.

Source.

Nomura Securities assessment, thanks to Rainrir:

Mochitweeted out some Nomura Securities assessment on the state of the Japanese industry. I can only embed so many tweets so I choose to just include the one he translated. You can see the other tweets in Japanese on his twitter.


Some comments by Nomura Securities on the state of the Japanese industry

野村證券。Nintendo Switchの足元生産数を月産200万台と試算。来期の販売台数予測を1,900万台から2,300万台に引き上げ。23年3月末までの累計販売台数を1億1580万台と予想。ハード粗利率を0%から8.8%~14.4%に修正。アクセサリーの収益性が理由。
Based on the pace of 2 million units of NSW produced each month, Nomura is revising the number of NSW to be sold next year from 19 million to 23 million. By March 2023, Nomura expects 115.8 million units to be sold. The margin for each NSW sold is revised upwards from 0% to between 8 to 14%, due to sales of accessories.

野村證券:家庭用ゲーム業界は停滞期が続いていた。しかし、F2Pのモバイルゲーム流行によりゲーム人口は拡大していたと考えている。幼少期から家庭用ゲームに慣れ親しんだ30~40代の需要回帰に加え、10~20代の需要の取り込みが進もう。業界全体にとってポジティブだ。(任天堂について)

(With regards to Nintendo) The JP console market has been stagnant. However, due to the popularity of F2P mobile games, the number of gamers is still increasing. The return of demand by 30-40 gamers who are used to console gaming when they are younger, and the meeting of the needs of the gamers who are in their 10s-20s, are being driven foward (by Nintendo). The whole industry as a whole is positive (about Nintendo).

コーエーテクモはSwitchを高く評価、開発体制を強化し同ハードの恩恵を先駆けて享受するだろう。仁王以降TeamNinjaが好調。高い開発力に旧コーエーの管理能力が組み合わさる。国内外で販売本数80~100万本程度のタイトル開発が継続的に可能になりつつあると考える。

Koei Tecmo have a high appraisal of the potential of the NSW, (as a result) reaped the fruits of their strengthened development practices and first mover's benefit. With the release of Nioh, Team Ninja is especially promising. The division combines high development capability with the management savvy from old Koei. Nomura is expecting them to have the capability to continue to develop titles that sell between 800k-1 million world wide.

野村證券:ゲーム業界ではE-sports、MOBA、基本無料型のオンラインゲームやお裾分けなど、開発力が高くオンラインバトルに適したコンテンツを保有するカプコンにとってはポジティブな流れが続くだろう。一方、会社としては運営力にを感じているとのこと、再評価にはまだ足りない。

In an online game industry is basically divided between E-spots title, MOBA games, and Free-to-Play games, Nomura continues to have a positive outlook on Capcom, a compay that combines high development capability, and possessing content suited for competitive online play, On the other hand, with regards to the the management/operations issues of the company, it is not yet enough to warrant a reassessment.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
According to the company, "Monster Hunter Double Cross" for the Nintendo Switch is steady, and "Ultra Street Fighter II" (for Nintendo Switch) smash hits. In addition, repeat sales such as "Monster Hunter Double Cross" (for 3DS) released in the previous term also contributed to improving earnings. Furthermore, licensing income using IP also pushed up profits.

You don't say.
 

RexNovis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,151
Will this mean they have some capital to invest in their older ips?

nah they'll continue to double down on the handful of IPs they have that are still uber successful in Japan and all the other projects in development will receive a pittance for funding as has been the case this entire gen.
 

Deleted member 25108

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Oct 29, 2017
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It's pretty clear that capcom is going to exist as a zombie corporation for a while that does just enough to keep their shareholders happy, but continues to dwindle in relevance in consumer mindshare.
 

Neonep

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Oct 25, 2017
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I don't believe that 115 million Switches. The system will probably top out at 40-50 mil.
 

Yurinka

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Oct 30, 2017
1,457
This rise makes sense.

The market knows that the main Capcom flaw is the lack of an Arcade Mode in SFV, and it's going to be solved soon xDD

Regarding Switch, I think it's going to sell 70-80M after its lifetime. It's selling a bit under Wii numbers and I think it will follow this pattern. Had a good start, understandable due to the Nintendo fanbase, had a great main Zelda and Mario in launch year, they fixed some WiiU issues and that Switch is going to be the succesor of both WiiU, 3DS and Vita with no competition on portables. Regarding horsepower and multi games, now it's a bit updated compared to the other consoles but will be even worse once next gen arrives to the market in 2020, something that I think it will affect a bit.
 
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Yurinka

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Oct 30, 2017
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Yep, the console that is performing better than the 3DS will end up selling less than the 3DS.
Remember that 3DS had a very bad start due to pricing etc. As of now launch numbers are more similar to Wii, another "weird/innovative" home console.
So the Switch is going to outsell the PS4 when it's all said and done?
No way. PS4 now has a more or least 10x times bigger install base, and PS4 sold more than Switch since Switch launch even if Nintendo had their biggest weapons: the best mainline Zelda and Mario in decades. I highly doubt Nintendo may have a better year than this one in terms of quality/best selling releases than this one, even if these games will have legs.

I think PS4 will end with 120-140M (150M+ if lucky, thanks extra years due to full BC PS5) and Switch with 70-80M (90-100M if very lucky).
 
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MidiPour

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Oct 27, 2017
393
Texas
I hope that means they wont be abandoning Monster Hunter on a portable Nintendo device. I like what I'm seeing with worlds and am planning to get it, but I want MonHun XX and subsequent Switch MH experiences to be ported over.
 

ggx2ac

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Oct 25, 2017
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Remember that 3DS had a very bad start due to pricing etc. As of now launch numbers are more similar to Wii, another "weird/innovative" home console.

It was more than just pricing, the software wasn't there for people to want to buy a 3DS in the first place.

Not much point comparing Switch launch numbers with Wii when that launched in holidays. For now, Switch is being compared with 3DS because they launched in the same period and have similar trajectories in the first year despite 3DS having to have a severe price cut and Nintendo shifting the majority of its development pipeline to 3DS.
 

Neonep

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Oct 25, 2017
5,744
I wonder how much the PS4 will sell, I see it barely touching 100 mil, if not slightly short of that.
 

Vishmarx

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Oct 26, 2017
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Ill put switch at 70ish million lifetime.smash and pokemon will give another huge boost but indont think itll have enough 3rd party love to last that long.
The likes of zelda and mario dont just come along in a year or two. nintendo is still a relative new comer to hd games. Especially considering pokemon and fe will need a lot more work and will get far fewer iterations than the 3ds era.

Somehow i just knew a capcom topic will turn into a switch topic
 

leder

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Oct 25, 2017
7,111
Definitely puts things into perspective after the hyper-negative thread here. I hope the FUCK CACPCPCOM/CAPCOM IS DOOMED crowd didn't follow us over from otherplace.

Disclaimer: I'm kind of a Capcom fanboy (though not blind to their many faults)
 

Deleted member 925

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Oct 25, 2017
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Definitely puts things into perspective after the hyper-negative thread here. I hope the FUCK CACPCPCOM/CAPCOM IS DOOMED crowd didn't follow us over from otherplace.

Disclaimer: I'm kind of a Capcom fanboy (though not blind to their many faults)

Capcom is deserving of the negative backlash though, they're making some mind boggling decisions.
 

leder

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Oct 25, 2017
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Capcom is deserving of the negative backlash though, they're making some mind boggling decisions.
I don't disagree with that, but there's an undeniable tendency to have huge negative reactions over any bit of Capcom news or PR regardless of the content.

I get it though. There's a part of me that will never forgive Capcom for killing Legends 3 (and Mega Man Universe believe it or not), abandoning Darkstalkers and Rival Schools, etc. etc. etc., but they still release some damn good games every once in a while.
 

TDLink

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Oct 25, 2017
8,411
Interesting that they have pointed out that releases on Nintendo platforms are helping them out and yet they don't have any upcoming Nintendo platform releases other than the RE: Rev ports.
 

Oregano

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I'm not sure how you can have a positive outlook on a market where one company is responsible for all the growth and all the rest consistently work against them.
 

Mr. Pointy

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Oct 28, 2017
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Interesting that they have pointed out that releases on Nintendo platforms are helping them out and yet they don't have any upcoming Nintendo platform releases other than the RE: Rev ports.
They're scrambling to find things to port over that don't take a lot of resources and time and will sell decently.
Like Ultra Street Fighter 3 or an Ace Attorney collection.
 

Cranston

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Oct 31, 2017
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Switch is going to be such a beast.

We're going to get so many good Japanese developed games on it.
 

Freddie13

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Nov 2, 2017
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Definitely puts things into perspective after the hyper-negative thread here. I hope the FUCK CACPCPCOM/CAPCOM IS DOOMED crowd didn't follow us over from otherplace.

Disclaimer: I'm kind of a Capcom fanboy (though not blind to their many faults)
It really does not though----Nomura report cites the reason for investor's positive reaction is due to strong sales of titles on Switch and strong connection to the platform--if Capcom does not change its stance, it will get hammered in the future. Don't think any publisher will be valued favorably in JP market now without supporting Switch
 

Herb Alpert

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Oct 25, 2017
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I'm not sure how you can have a positive outlook on a market where one company is responsible for all the growth and all the rest consistently work against them.

Exactly. It seems most have just given up on domestic market. It would be a field of ruins if the switch had been nother WiiU, and most companies had integrated this and just prefered to take a preemptive leave. This isn't an healthy situation.
 

TDLink

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Oct 25, 2017
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They're scrambling to find things to port over that don't take a lot of resources and time and will sell decently.
Like Ultra Street Fighter 3 or an Ace Attorney collection.

I want to note this isn't port begging, but -- I really wonder why they didn't just do Okami and Dragon's Dogma considering they're releasing them on the other platforms.

They seem to be "scrambling" extremely slowly.
 

KratosEnergyDrink

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Oct 27, 2017
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Definitely puts things into perspective after the hyper-negative thread here. I hope the FUCK CACPCPCOM/CAPCOM IS DOOMED crowd didn't follow us over from otherplace.

Disclaimer: I'm kind of a Capcom fanboy (though not blind to their many faults)

They mention Switch & 3DS as one of the most important platforms... and have no games for Switch besides old ports (at least the Resident Evil ports seem to be good) and their most important new game is not announced for Switch, at least for now.

If MHW flops, which is likely, Capcom will be in big trouble and is it not sure that a late and rushed Switch port could safe them.
 

Theodran

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Oct 25, 2017
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For those who are talking about Capcom and other devs being slow with ports etc., it can take a year to properly port a game over to Switch, even PS3/X360 generation games. New games take even longer to develop.

When it's a game that originally has high polygon assets they need to edit them which means recreating the low mesh and texture data.

Just give them time.
 

ElBoxy

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Oct 25, 2017
14,123
For those who are talking about Capcom and other devs being slow with ports etc., it can take a year to properly port a game over to Switch, even PS3/X360 generation games. New games take even longer to develop.

When it's a game that originally has high polygon assets they need to edit them which means recreating the low mesh and texture data.

Just give them time.
Bethesda is sure making a quick turnaround on Switch ports. But then again Bethesda probably has a lot more helping hands than Capcom.
 

Herb Alpert

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They mention Switch & 3DS as one of the most important platforms... and have no games for Switch besides old ports (at least the Resident Evil ports seem to be good) and their most important new game is not announced for Switch, at least for now.

If MHW flops, which is likely, Capcom will be in big trouble and is it not sure that a late and rushed Switch port could safe them.

MHW won't flop, but I fail to see investors happy about this "all eggs in the same basket" strategy.

The quarter is saved by domestic market and Nintendo platforms. It's quite a good validation to current strategy :)
 

TDLink

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Oct 25, 2017
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I think it's fair to predict that MHW will sell below expectations. With the higher budget it needs to also sell more copies compared to the 3ds games. And losing the portability factor (a major draw to the title, especially in Japan) is going to be significant. We'll just have to wait and see how significant.

I don't think the people interested in AAA western games are going to have much interest in MHW. And if Capcom believes they will, they're making a pretty big miscalculation. I do see it selling pretty well on Steam though, especially once it starts getting heavily discounted later in the year.
 

Oregano

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Exactly. It seems most have just given up on domestic market. It would be a field of ruins if the switch had been nother WiiU, and most companies had integrated this and just prefered to take a preemptive leave. This isn't an healthy situation.

It made sense to bet against it though, third parties need to have a healthy platform like the Vita before they can invest.

For those who are talking about Capcom and other devs being slow with ports etc., it can take a year to properly port a game over to Switch, even PS3/X360 generation games. New games take even longer to develop.

When it's a game that originally has high polygon assets they need to edit them which means recreating the low mesh and texture data.

Just give them time.

Might have been a good idea to start in 2016 then instead of at the end of 2017 then.
 
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