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CNN reporting Switch as big winner on Black Friday

Kerotan

Member
Oct 31, 2018
2,845
Most people that are interested in a PS4 will probably go ahead and grab it with 3 games for $199. Do you think there is a large market that has held off buying it with 3 games at $199 but will suddenly jump in at $199 base? Sure $149 would move units, but how many more would it move than they are already moving at $199?

In the end, Sony has crossed 100m units and their focus is likely on maximizing profits and won’t lower it further for a few more units sold if it cuts into profits.
Yes I do. Look at the big sales spike for the xbox at $99. €a price like that in India or China would go a long way.
 

srtrestre

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,128
Consoles at launch are volume limited, plus are unlikely to have any price promotions, while the Switch almost certainly will have them.
Yeah. The new consoles will be hot for sure, but I think Switch will also take next year as a whole because of:
  • Limited Xbox next, PS5 availability
  • Promotions in order to counter said next gen systems (potential price drops, bundles, etc.)
  • Nintendo being traditionally stronger during the holiday period
  • Whatever huge game or games they’re saving for the occasion ;)
 

Soph

Member
Oct 25, 2017
844
I dunno, it's so over-the-top that it's hard for me to imagine it as anything more than satire.

It's like one of those joke posts Soph would make.
Hehe, I should make one of those posts again, the launch of the Switch was quite the ride. There is however, a fine but subtle line between over the top ironic takes on other other peoples posts with a sarcastic sauce and the posts it's trying to ridicule. I think this post is probably part of the latter, since there is no actual intent to ridicule their own argument. It comes of as somewhat genuine this way. It is however a fairly ridiculous point to make, so if the intent was to make people laugh, I think he succeeded.


Leaving a /s at the end is a sure way to let someone know. I'm just going to assume if someone doesn't do that, then they want it to read seriously. I've seen way too many console warriors who are dead ass to have doubt.
I have never ended my posts with /s, using sarcasm in good faith will never need this to begin with. I have however, seen people use the /s behind their posts as a way to absolve them from backing up their disingenuous point of view. It's just sarcasm bro... yeah it's clearly not.
 

Tigress

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,441
Washington
It also includes $60 worth of software.



It's been fascinating to see folks "New to Nintendo" with the Switch realize that their games don't hit $10 after a year.
Honestly I think I prefer how Nintendo does it. One that means I can just buy the game with no worries that if I wait it will be cheaper. But more importantly it allows Nintendo to avoid the gas model as their money comes from the game being good enough to keep selling vs the game being just enough frustrating to convince people to pay to fix it.
 

IronTed

Member
Jun 6, 2019
277
Yeah. The new consoles will be hot for sure, but I think Switch will also take next year as a whole because of:
  • Limited Xbox next, PS5 availability
  • Promotions in order to counter said next gen systems (potential price drops, bundles, etc.)
  • Nintendo being traditionally stronger during the holiday period
  • Whatever huge game or games they’re saving for the occasion ;)
If Nintendo price drops in 2020 I would imagine it would have a big effect given it would be the first holiday with a price drop. Nintendo likely getting YoY growth with the exact same offering as last year is kinda crazy
 

Zen

Member
Nov 1, 2017
3,940
I don't particularly care if Nintendo is the top seller, I just like the idea of a home console that is also portable being well supported and successful.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,594
Yes I do. Look at the big sales spike for the xbox at $99. €a price like that in India or China would go a long way.
Big difference between $199 and $99 that the X1 was. I don’t know that the increased sales from dropping it to $149 will make up for the decreased profits. I’m sure a $149 PS4 would move a lot of units because the $199 unit is moving a lot, but it just doesn’t seem to make a lot of since for Sony to do that at the expense of lower profits at this point.
 

Kerotan

Member
Oct 31, 2018
2,845
Big difference between $199 and $99 that the X1 was. I don’t know that the increased sales from dropping it to $149 will make up for the decreased profits. I’m sure a $149 PS4 would move a lot of units because the $199 unit is moving a lot, but it just doesn’t seem to make a lot of since for Sony to do that at the expense of lower profits at this point.
Main main issue is that normally they sell for $299 never mind $199, $149 or $99! It's still selling decent but there's potential to sell so much more.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,594
Main main issue is that normally they sell for $299 never mind $199, $149 or $99! It's still selling decent but there's potential to sell so much more.
I’m not arguing they wouldn’t sell more at $149. I’m arguing that it probably doesn’t make sense for Sony to do so. They are going to sell a lot of the $199 Bundle as it is and we don’t know if it is even profitable to drop it to $149. They could sell millions more if they dropped it to $49 but their goal is to make profits. They have already built a large install base and if they are still selling a significant amount at $199 and are making more profit at that price, their is little incentive for them to lower just to sell more units but make less profit at this point in its lifecycle.

It’s similar to the Switch. Everyone was hoping for bigger deals during Black Friday. We will have to wait and see to be certain, but based on some details that are floating around it looks like they are going to be up YoY while basically staying at MSRP and throwing in a free game. Sure they could have probably sold more at $149/Lite or $229/OG-Bundle but overall they would probably be less profitable.
 

Dekuman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,697
Yeah. The new consoles will be hot for sure, but I think Switch will also take next year as a whole because of:
  • Limited Xbox next, PS5 availability
  • Promotions in order to counter said next gen systems (potential price drops, bundles, etc.)
  • Nintendo being traditionally stronger during the holiday period
  • Whatever huge game or games they’re saving for the occasion ;)
Ive been wrong on Pro all year so might as well double down

With Lite out and a Shield TV pro from.nvidia, I'm going to say there is a Pro model next year
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,811
Wow so read everything in this thread, about the most interesting piece of discussion to me is Nintendo Switch hitting 100 Million units, and how people like Matt (and myself) would see it as surprising if it didn't.

Let's just look at sales this year and project for the end of next FY. Last FY Switch sold 17 Million units, that is off of a Q1 and Q2 that combined for about 5 Million units, and a Q3 of 9.4 Million, with a Q4 at 2.5 Million. 17 Million for 2018.

This year Switch has sold 7 Million in Q1 and Q2 combined, it's up yoy noticeably in Q3 too, and has Animal Crossing at the end of Q4 next year, which is a bigger game than anything else that Switch Launched last quarter. Just via Q1, Q2 and Q4 and somehow a flat Q3, switch would sell 20 Million units, Q3 is up and could actually beat the Wii/DS Q3 records of ~11.5 Million, Switch is about to launch in China via Tencent, it is a potentially huge market, that means Switch will end the FY at 56 to 57 Million units without a big breakthrough into China.

Next year is bigger than this year, Animal Crossing launches on March 20th, Switch lite is on the market all year, and next gen consoles won't sell more than 5 Million a piece next holiday (PS4 and Xb1 sold 4 Million a piece during their launch holidays). I do also expect a promotional price drop for Switch next holiday, having seen Switch sell almost 22 Million this year, I don't think it would be impossible to see them hit 23 Million next year, that puts Switch at 80 Million units during their 4th birthday.

It will sell 100 Million life time, and next gen won't really impact Switch until 2022, I don't believe we will see a true successor to Switch until 2023, but I do think they will release an enhanced model next year to maintain their $299 price point.

To be perfectly honest though, I think Switch's successor won't be a different platform, I think it will just be a 3rd iteration of Switch hardware, with performance targeting 1080p docked and 720p portable again, streaming can keep the current model relevant and this more powerful model could continue to push hardware for another half decade, as it should be close to a PS4 Pro when docked and offer 9th gen games at 720p to 1080p even easier than the current Switch can offer 8th gen games. If this is the case, who knows where it stops.

Where would PS4 have ended if PS5 was just a PS4 Pro2? It's not that PS4 is old, it's only just sold 30 Million units in America, 360 and Wii sold well over 40 million units, so there are plenty of sales to be had, especially when you consider PS4 never hit a base price of $199. Back on Switch sales, it had sold about 16 Million units in America before Q3, it could end the FY at 22 Million or more, so Switch is selling better in both America and Japan than PS4 so far.
 

sleepnaught

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,623
At my local Walmart, they had a big Pokemon display with Pokemon Switch consoles, games, movies, Pokemon card packs, other merch, etc. The whole thing was absolutely ravaged and falling apart by the time I got to the store. I still can't believe how Pokemon has managed to stay relevant after so many years. Not a dig at Pokemon, just was surprised.
 

SpaceCrystal

Member
Apr 1, 2019
1,498
Wow, so I read everything in this thread, about the most interesting piece of discussion to me is Nintendo Switch hitting 100 Million units, and how people like Matt (and myself) would see it as surprising if it didn't.

Let's just look at the sales for this year and project for the end of next FY. Last FY Switch sold 17 Million units, that is off of a Q1 and Q2 that combined for about 5 Million units, and a Q3 of 9.4 Million, with a Q4 at 2.5 Million. 17 Million for 2018.

This year Switch has sold 7 Million in Q1 and Q2 combined, it's up yoy noticeably in Q3 too, and has Animal Crossing at the end of Q4 next year, which is a bigger game than anything else that Switch Launched last quarter. Just via Q1, Q2 and Q4 and somehow a flat Q3, switch would sell 20 Million units, Q3 is up and could actually beat the Wii/DS Q3 records of ~11.5 Million, Switch is about to launch in China via Tencent, it is a potentially huge market, that means Switch will end the FY at 56 to 57 Million units without a big breakthrough into China.

Next year is bigger than this year, Animal Crossing launches on March 20th, Switch lite is on the market all year, and next gen consoles won't sell more than 5 Million a piece next holiday (PS4 and Xb1 sold 4 Million a piece during their launch holidays). I do also expect a promotional price drop for Switch next holiday, having seen Switch sell almost 22 Million this year, I don't think it would be impossible to see them hit 23 Million next year, that puts Switch at 80 Million units during their 4th birthday.

It will sell 100 Million life time, and next gen won't really impact Switch until 2022, I don't believe we will see a true successor to Switch until 2023, but I do think they will release an enhanced model next year to maintain their $299 price point.

To be perfectly honest though, I think Switch's successor won't be a different platform, I think it will just be a 3rd iteration of Switch hardware, with performance targeting 1080p docked and 720p portable again, streaming can keep the current model relevant and this more powerful model could continue to push hardware for another half decade, as it should be close to a PS4 Pro when docked and offer 9th gen games at 720p to 1080p even easier than the current Switch can offer 8th gen games. If this is the case, who knows where it stops.

Where would PS4 have ended if PS5 was just a PS4 Pro2? It's not that PS4 is old, it's only just sold 30 Million units in America, 360 and Wii sold well over 40 million units, so there are plenty of sales to be had, especially when you consider PS4 never hit a base price of $199. Back on Switch sales, it had sold about 16 Million units in America before Q3, it could end the FY at 22 Million or more, so Switch is selling better in both America and Japan than PS4 so far.
I agree, though I doubt that they'll be a Switch Pro. Also, by the time that Switch's successor is out, it should easily be able to run in PS4 graphics, at the very least. And hopefully, HDR support & HDMI 2.1 will be included.

HDR is much more appealing than trying to target games in Native 4K like what Microsoft & Sony are trying to do with PS5/Xbox 4 (& even with the PS4 Pro & the Xbox One X).