Thanks guys. I honestly didn't even know Pokémon had multiplayer hahah. At this point though, does Splatoon still have a healthy player base?
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CNN reporting Switch as big winner on Black Friday
- Thread starter JustinBailey
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Thanks guys. I honestly didn't even know Pokémon had multiplayer hahah. At this point though, does Splatoon still have a healthy player base?
Oh, Pokemon is great for multiplayer. There is PvP, PvE, raids, battles, trades, ranked, unranked, local, online. It would be great.
I can't answer for Splatoon, I'll let Hate chip in on that :)
Pachter was an early proponent of the Switch's success, actually, though he did change his tune last year. Now he seems to have changed it again.
I don't agree with him (as per usual) but I guess we have no idea what kinda software they'll have in store for the next 3 years. I think this year could be the peak and if not, then it will definitely be next year.
But by the end of 2021 we should be hearing about a Switch 2 I'd imagine.
Locally? Super Mario Party for sure, especially the 2v2 mode, it is crazy fun. also: Mario Tennis Aces! it is extremely fun and the gameplay mechanics are amazing, you will be surprised how much fun it is.
Last time i did play, i didn't have any issues
I will be honest, a small part of me still wishes that Wii U lived a little longer, that games like Yooka Laylee and Bloodstained released for it. I feel a bit sad about how it ended because despite of failing horribly, still... the product and its games were full of love, and i can't deny countless hours of fun with it, i still play Wii Party U with my friends regularly.
100 million for Switch is definitely a possibility, but it depends on the long term tail of the system. Nintendo would need to support it meaningfully for as long as they did the 3DS for the Switch to approach 100 million.
Gives them ample time to make another F-Zero, right?
..... right? :(
The Wii U taught me to never pledge to a kickstarter, and to not even trust small devs/publishers to honour their word.
PS4 is already saturated with a console in every household. The portable nature of the Switch helps in that each kid wants their own device so you will see 2-3 Switch's per household
Ive read almost this whole thread and am shocked that people are surprised the switch most likely won over Black Friday. Most everyone who wants an xbox or ps4 has one already and the new systems launch next year.
It was a possibility in March 2017 when the system launched and the initial sales data came in - in December 2019 it's much more than as possibility.
I don't know what kind of fuck up Nintendo would have to introduce to prevent that from happening.
100m is a conservative prediction for the end of the Switch family if things play out like I expect them to.
In the very unlikely case that they release a Switch 2 in 2021 or something then I don't see them hitting 100M.
But yeah that doesn't seem likely.
They have sell everything they sold again don't they?
They would need some major games I think. I hope it sells 100m but I just doubt it will.
My bigger question is one of what continues to accelerate sales going forward. While I have no doubt the current level can and will be sustained for a year or two before tapering off, we need at least one more year of accelerated sales before the tapering begins, for the Switch to have a realistic shot at 100 million.
But what will drive that acceleration, exactly? To my knowledge, every major hardware-mover Nintendo franchise is now available on Switch, with the exception of Animal Crossing, and that comes out in a couple months.
So what do we expect to continue accelerating Switch sales?
Still have animal crossing for next year which will be a big one then Breath of the Wild 2, Likely a second Mario game and smaller stuff like Tomodachi life along with the usual Pokemons. Probably enough for at least a good 2 years. 3rd who knows really.
Sales don't need to accelerate, the PS4's never did that, there were consistently high almost it's entire lifespan. The sales need to have a slow taper down. It's currently at 40 million likely ending the year near 50 million. It just needs two more years of roughly 20 million sales to reach 100 million. The real question is if it can manage that.
Sequels, new IPs (like Ring Fit which is a bona fide system seller), Switch Sports, new revisions like a pro, price drops, etc. Big third party exclusives can help too. Maybe they actually will get a new Monster Hunter which would go a long way towards driving hardware in Japan.
I'm not worried about their software output for it simply because they don't have a separate hardware line to support like they did with the 3DS during the Wii's end of life years.
PS4 went through four years of acceleration before starting its tapering 2014->2015->2016->2017.
The reason it was able to clear 100 million as easily as it did was because it performed at its peak for longer than is expected of a console (with four years of acceleration, rather than the traditional three).
Switch absolutely needs that to match it.
I'm not necessarily worried about the presence of software, I feel there will always be enough new releases on the system, from Nintendo and third parties alike. I specifically mean releases that can actually sell the system, and on that front it appears we are now in the realm of guesswork and speculation.
This might influence the final tally depending if Tencent can help them break the China market in a noticable way for the first time. Huge potential but unknown how much it can really do.
I reckon Pokemon would help here over previous consoles. Though I'm not sure Gamefreak can (or rather should) maintain a yearly release schedule.
Revisiting some comments in threads like these will be entertaining next year.
People don't seem to understand that a Mario Kart doesn't stop being a system seller because it launched years ago ....people still buy systems to play these games when the time is right. Nintendo will have a Disney like catalogue on Switch by next year - they are in a incredible good place in terms of released evergreen software and are gonna keep adding games to that library.
Why do you think games like MK8 and BotW still chart nearly 3 years after launch ?
People don't seem to understand that a Mario Kart doesn't stop being a system seller because it launched years ago ....people still buy systems to play these games when the time is right. Nintendo will have a Disney like catalogue on Switch by next year - they are in a incredible good place in terms of released evergreen software and are gonna keep adding games to that library.
I agree whole heartedly with what you are saying! I just am saying that that helps maintain a minimum level of sales, while we need an acceleration, and that requires new releases with system selling appeal.
Sure, I don't think we will have to worry about that though.
We will have a clearer picture of the situation once we head to e3 next year and MS/Sony have unveiled their next-gen plans.
Yes, I hope Nintendo sheds more light on that soon enough.
As of right now, I am just wondering what they may have that would potentially continue to push Switch sales.
The biggest card to play next year is gonna be the price....the fact that they can sell a MK8 bundle with OG Switch for 300 bucks as a Black Friday deal says it all.
They are gonna be a bit more agressive n'y next year. Assuming PS5/Nextbox go for 500 box ...they are gonna make sure to get the point across that you'll be able to buy two Switch for the price of one of these machines bundled with a big first party release.
Actually, you are right, price is a dimension I have not considered at all. Theoretically the console could just get a second lease of life with a price drop.
Hardly substantial "acceleration" when there's barely a few million extra shipped between those years. It was a slow fairly consistent increases but that in itself is meaningless to this discussion. If it reached 20 million earlier but it's shipments decreased in a minor fashion it would have still reached those numbers and thus your base assumption doesn't make sense. When it peaks doesn't matter one bit what it's peak is and the drop rate is what will determine if it reaches 100 million or not.
yeah, we're fast approaching the point at which they need new IP and big third-party games to continually drive new hardware sales.
the big gap right now is that there's no original 2D Mario title. I really hope a game like that materializes next year.
edit: one thing I should make clear, though: I think it's just as/even more important for sequels of franchises already on Switch (like BotW2) to also become evergreen titles, especially if they can do so alongside their predecessors and not merely by replacing them
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It's genuinely funny how terrible and deluded the opinions of supposedly informed people on an enthusiast message board can be.
People can spin it how they want, but at the end of the day Nintendo has hardware on the market for those that don't want to pay the full price of a Nintendo Switch and it plays the same games.
Most if not all of their hardware sees sales drop hard in the final years when Nintendo releases lower-budget spin-offs and smaller titles because they shifted resources to their next platform. What are you seeing (or know?) that would lead you to believe this won't be the case for their current platform?
These aren't even concrete numbers or from Nintendo. How are you this triggered by this?
the fact they only have one platform to support this time, and that the next one will be backwards compatible
Because they don't have a separate platform to support. Wii support dropped off not because of Wii U software development, it dropped off because they had to support the 3DS launch. Now with there unified platform that is not an issue.
Benji is estimating 800k-1 million for Xbox, over 1 million for PS4.
If switch sells 20mi by the end of this FY, how much it will have sold in its first three years?
It takes more resources to put out Switch games and Nintendo is still taking Q4 off if games don't get delayed. So we will have to disagree on this.