Coronavirus Discussion Thread (See Staff Post) [UPDATE: WHO declares global emergency. See threadmarks]

Claven

Game Localization
Verified
Aug 22, 2018
3,600
Ira Longini is co-director of the Centre for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, and a WHO adviser, so rather than being an idiot I’d say they’re fairly well informed on this stuff. That’s not to say they’re right of course, but not an idiot.
As others said, "could" covers a lot of various scenarios.
I mean sure, if we all somehow forgot viruses are a thing, it conceivably _could_ infect 2/3 of the world population, but with us being aware of it and using quarantine and just normal precautions, no way this thing infects 5 billion people, as it stands now.
In Wuhan there's 12 million people, even if the reported numbers were undershot twenty times, it would still have managed to infect "just" around a million people, while running unchecked since late November until mid-January.

I'm sure that person is trying to say something, I'm just not sure what.
 

sNtd

Member
Oct 24, 2018
336
Why did Japan only ban entry flights from Hubei and not all of China?
It's actually Hubei + Zhejiang now. The Japanese economy is highly entwined with China because of tourism, supply chains, imports/exports, etc. I guess the Japanese government was betting on China being able to limit the spread of the disease outside of Hubei, considering the draconian measures China has taken to quarantine the virus. Now it seems like China was unable to properly quarantine the virus and Japan is also failing to quarantine it.
 

Garchia3.0

Member
Dec 20, 2018
545
Has this been discussed yet? I'm looking for other sources discussing this article.


The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
 

oipic

Member
Oct 25, 2017
310
Being reported now by The Australian newspaper that a cruise ship has been placed into lock-down in Sydney Harbour due to a suspected case on board (a Singaporean passenger, who has now been taken elsewhere for treatment).
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,664
It's actually Hubei + Zhejiang now. The Japanese economy is highly entwined with China because of tourism, supply chains, imports/exports, etc. I guess the Japanese government was betting on China being able to limit the spread of the disease outside of Hubei, considering the draconian measures China has taken to quarantine the virus. Now it seems like China was unable to properly quarantine the virus and Japan is also failing to quarantine it.
The problem is China implemented those quarantine measures way too late
 

sNtd

Member
Oct 24, 2018
336
According to http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/, today 3,095 out of 4,823 are clinically diagnosed (others using test kits). Yesterday 13,332 out of 14,840 were clinically diagnosed (others using test kits). Two days ago 1,638 new cases were reported (using test kits), excluding clinically diagnosed. Seems like the amount of patients being confirmed using test kits has remained relatively stable. I guess yesterday's clinically diagnosed number was probably an outlier due to including backlog cases.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
8,579
Are there any current estimates on what this is likely to do to China's economy?
Last week analysts were lowering their GDP estimates by about 0.5%, from about 6.0% I think (going from memory). I see Nvidia this afternoon lowered their Q1 revenue guidance by $100M because of it.

Wasn"t the country partly shut down for vacation anyway for a part of this?
 

ChippyTurtle

Member
Oct 13, 2018
1,289
Last week analysts were lowering their GDP estimates by about 0.5%, from about 6.0% I think (going from memory). I see Nvidia this afternoon lowered their Q1 revenue guidance by $100M because of it.

Wasn"t the country partly shut down for vacation anyway for a part of this?
While factories would shut down for everyone to go home, lots of economic activity occurred or should have occurred for Chinese New year that absolutely did not. Restaurants, Tourism, both in and out of China, that's not gonna be recouped.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,709
A sharp increase of critical and serious patients up to almost 10k. Over 2500 more than yesterday. This is showing absolutely zero signs of slowing down
 

sNtd

Member
Oct 24, 2018
336
The 80-year old Japanese woman from Kanagawa prefecture who died of the virus was the mother in law of the taxi driver in Tokyo who caught the virus (source).

The surgeon in Wakayama prefecture who is infected by the virus also infected one of his patients (source). It is not yet known how the surgeon was infected.
 

oipic

Member
Oct 25, 2017
310
Haven’t seen anything in the Herald yet. Hopefully we don’t have another Diamond Princess on our hands.
I suspect The Australian jumped the gun or ran with some misinformation - they're still reporting (behind a paywall, unfortunately) a suspected ill passenger on the ship, but appear to have walked back the 'ship on lockdown', other passengers unable to leave thing. No reports elsewhere at all, strangely.
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,664
The 80-year old Japanese woman from Kanagawa prefecture who died of the virus was the mother in law of the taxi driver in Tokyo who caught the virus (source).

The surgeon in Wakayama prefecture who is infected by the virus also infected one of his patients (source). It is not yet known how the surgeon was infected.
Wait so did the taxi driver get it from her or was it the other way around? If the former, how did she get it?
 

Lafazar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
567
Bern, Switzerland
Thank you, kindly. Will give this a read momentarily. Cheers.
SARS and the coronavirus likely originated from bats, not birds. But the problem is similar.
"Poorly regulated live-animal markets mixed with illegal wildlife trade offer a unique opportunity for viruses to spill over from wildlife hosts into the human population," the Wildlife Conservation Society said in a statement.

Edit: Also watch this for good measure: Most of humanities worst sicknesses come from animals and can very rarely make the jump when you have lots of animals and lots of humans living close together:
 
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Arebours

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,886
According to http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/, today 3,095 out of 4,823 are clinically diagnosed (others using test kits). Yesterday 13,332 out of 14,840 were clinically diagnosed (others using test kits). Two days ago 1,638 new cases were reported (using test kits), excluding clinically diagnosed. Seems like the amount of patients being confirmed using test kits has remained relatively stable. I guess yesterday's clinically diagnosed number was probably an outlier due to including backlog cases.
Would be interesting to know how many kits their labs can process per day. Wouldn't surprise if they are maxed out. Like using a thermometer that only covers so many degrees.
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,664
I don't think there is conclusive evidence yet, but it seems like the taxi driver got the virus from one of his passengers.
So unknown passenger->taxi driver->MIL then?

I was hoping it was some known carrier->MIL->taxi driver because then it would be traceable and make me feel better about containment. Fuck.
 

Garchia3.0

Member
Dec 20, 2018
545
That means it has already been nearly two weeks for this person since they are already in a serious condition, which makes me believe that more will start popping up shortly.
That might be the case. I found the article explaining the situation. It's in Japanese (but google translate does a decent job giving out the details). It says they're already screening people with signs of pneumonia.

 

Mikey Jr.

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,403
Are there any current estimates on what this is likely to do to China's economy?
Dunno, but it will have lasting effects.

Sars fucked Toronto nicely for quite a bit. It was only through a concerted effort that we got it back on track, like getting Conan to do a week long late night in Toronto which was pretty huge back in the day.

This was 2003.

Now we are in 2020 with the age of social media and a more drvestating sickness.

Foreign tourism in China will probably be fucked for quite a while.
 

sNtd

Member
Oct 24, 2018
336
So unknown passenger->taxi driver->MIL then?

I was hoping it was some known carrier->MIL->taxi driver because then it would be traceable and make me feel better about containment. Fuck.
Yeah, it would be better if they knew the source of infection for the taxi driver. At least there is a clear link between the taxi driver and the mother in law. I was kind of panicking about someone living in a relatively countryside area (the mother in law) seemingly randomly getting infected. Still worrisome though that there is potentially one or more carriers in Tokyo (where I live).
 

ShadowKingpin

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,611
That might be the case. I found the article explaining the situation. It's in Japanese (but google translate does a decent job giving out the details). It says they're already screening people with signs of pneumonia.

Oh boy. I expect the official numbers to jump in the next two days if they are already screening people. I just hope it isn’t a lot.
 
Oct 25, 2017
625
Wakayama
Yeah so waking up and hearing the virus was confirmed only 3 hours away from where you live (the surgeon in Wakayama) isn’t the most pleasant feeling. I might just stay indoors for the foreseeable future. DX
 

endlessflood

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,177
Australia (GMT+10)
I suspect The Australian jumped the gun or ran with some misinformation - they're still reporting (behind a paywall, unfortunately) a suspected ill passenger on the ship, but appear to have walked back the 'ship on lockdown', other passengers unable to leave thing. No reports elsewhere at all, strangely.
Herald reporting on it now. The Australian had to amend their story; I find it’s best to assume that everything printed in a Rupert Murdoch newspaper is a load of shit until proven otherwise.

All passengers were allowed off, but one was tested for COVID-19 with results to be confirmed this afternoon. Passenger had no contact with China and wasn’t feeling ill, so I’m assuming they had a cough or were found to be running a temperature.
 

darkwing

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,953
The most fucked up thing about the surgeon was he began to feel feverish on January 31st, yet continued working until February 6th.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200214_02/
God damn the mother fucking work culture here will be the death of this country. You'd think having a fever would be enough to have a motherfucking surgeon abstain from work. But no, gotta keep trucking.
welp, if this causes the cancellation of the Olympic games, this would be like patient zero
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,664
The most fucked up thing about the surgeon was he began to feel feverish on January 31st, yet continued working until February 6th.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200214_02/
God damn the mother fucking work culture here will be the death of this country. You'd think having a fever would be enough to have a motherfucking surgeon abstain from work. But no, gotta keep trucking.
Took me a second to realize you're talking about Japan and not the US. It's almost as bad here, if not as bad, depending on the field. Had so many motherfucking colds because some asshole refuses to work from home when they're hacking up a lung.