Coronavirus Discussion Thread (See Staff Post) [UPDATE: WHO declares global emergency. See threadmarks]

[Linkura]

8 new cases on Mainland Japan again. 6-8 Seems to be the number for the last 4/5 days. Another Taxi Driver In Tokyo

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

“NEW: Taxi driver in Japan tests positive for coronavirus; 8 new cases in Japan so far today, plus 88 on the cruise ship https://t.co/eUoE2b20hL”

twitter.com

And Japan Airlines have started to cancel flights because of low demand to South Korea and Taiwan

Japan Airlines cuts more services in Asia due to coronavirus outbreak

Japan Airlines Co. said Tuesday it will reduce its number of flights from Japan to South Korea and Taiwan through late March and cut services further to Ch

www.japantimes.co.jp

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If they are canceling flights to non-quarantine areas they might be canceling my flight as well eventually.

Japan may soon have the most cases outside of China.

 

[electricblue]

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk

The deadliness of the virus advances progressively with the age of the patient, research suggests.

www.bbc.com

• Some 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical.
• The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8%.
• For children up to 9, there have been no fatalities and up to the age of 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.
• For the next age groups, the fatality rates increase gradually: For people in their 40s it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8%.
• Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
• Identifying which existing illnesses put patients at risk, the study finds cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension

"Looking forward, the paper found that "the epidemic curve of onset of symptoms" peaked around 23-26 January before declining up to 11 February."

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Those numbers are horrifying, that 80.9% means the disease has probably spread beyond any possible hope of containment

 

[Min]

Those numbers are horrifying, that 80.9% means the disease has probably spread beyond any possible hope of containment

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It also means it's a lot less apocalyptic...

 

[Nivash]

Those numbers are horrifying, that 80.9% means the disease has probably spread beyond any possible hope of containment

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It's the same number that's been around from the start. It's probably an underestimate too because those 40,000 cases were the only ones seeking care in the first place place. There are likely even more with minimal symptoms.

All of that has been accounted for, though, so this study doesn't fundamentally change anything.

 

[CelestialAtom]

8 new cases on Mainland Japan again. 6-8 Seems to be the number for the last 4/5 days. Another Taxi Driver In Tokyo

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

“NEW: Taxi driver in Japan tests positive for coronavirus; 8 new cases in Japan so far today, plus 88 on the cruise ship https://t.co/eUoE2b20hL”

twitter.com

And Japan Airlines have started to cancel flights because of low demand to South Korea and Taiwan

Japan Airlines cuts more services in Asia due to coronavirus outbreak

Japan Airlines Co. said Tuesday it will reduce its number of flights from Japan to South Korea and Taiwan through late March and cut services further to Ch

www.japantimes.co.jp

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Japan, you are really dropping the ball on this.

 

[Mandos]

Currently glad my folks are taking the long route back to the states, they've been in unaffected parts of Southeast Asia traveling for the past couple weeks and we're originally flying back through Singapore and Taiwan but now they are bypassing them

 

[Linkura]

Japan, you are really dropping the ball on this.

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At this rate I'm definitely canceling. Shit would have to improve drastically for me to go. But I'll wait until the last minute to cancel if it comes to that.

 

[Method]

At this rate I'm definitely canceling. Shit would have to improve drastically for me to go. But I'll wait until the last minute to cancel if it comes to that.

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Your credit card may allow ticket/hotel insurance for this. Give them a call. Cant hurt

 

[CelestialAtom]

At this rate I'm definitely canceling. Shit would have to improve drastically for me to go. But I'll wait until the last minute to cancel if it comes to that.

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I WAS wanting to take the risk with recent news (HIV medicine tests and 80% cases being mild), but Japan is fucking up really bad with trying to contain COVID-19 that I'm starting to believe that I could definitely get the virus if I were to go just from taking transportation there, so I think my trip is looking botched as well. I am so disappoint in the Japanese Government in how they are handling this, as many innocent people will potentially be affected by this major fuck-up.

I do think I am out of luck on the airplane tickets, as someone on Reddit who went through the same airline I am using contacted them about how much it would cost to move the tickets to another date, and they kept quoting an average of $1,000 — which is a lot more than what I paid for my tickets, so I think I'm going to have to take an "L".

 

[Linkura]

Your credit card may allow ticket/hotel insurance for this. Give them a call. Cant hurt

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Great idea, thank you. I was recently upgraded to a card with extra insurance so it might come to that. Definitely will pull that option if I can't get refunds from Japan Airlines and Hilton.

 

[MasterChumly]

It's the same number that's been around from the start. It's probably an underestimate too because those 40,000 cases were the only ones seeking care in the first place place. There are likely even more with minimal symptoms.

All of that has been accounted for, though, so this study doesn't fundamentally change anything.

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The volume of untested people with mild symptoms is probably a wash because we also have reports of people dying before they can get care and tested.

 

[DickGrayson]

Those numbers are horrifying, that 80.9% means the disease has probably spread beyond any possible hope of containment

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Not necessarily, if the mild cases don't have a large viral load then the carriers won't spread it as easily.

 

[Nivash]

The volume of untested people with mild symptoms is probably a wash because we also have reports of people dying before they can get care and tested.

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Strongly disagree. It's far, far likelier that someone would get mild or no symptoms and simply not realise it's COVID-19 than someone dying without a diagnosis. Even in Wuhan. The case fatality rate simply isn't that high.

 

[MasterChumly]

Strongly disagree. It's far, far likelier that someone would get mild or no symptoms and simply not realise it's COVID-19 than someone dying without a diagnosis. Even in Wuhan. The case fatality rate simply isn't that high.

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I'm simply saying it's a wash in Hubei. We know for a fact that Wuhan wasn't testing people that died before they could get a bed. So you cant take the study and say the numbers are much lower because they aren't counting all the undiagnosed people with mild symptoms. We also have people with severe symptoms and dying in Wuhan without treatment. So I think it's best to take the study at face value verses arbitrary changing the numbers for the better.

 

[aspiegamer]

The whole Diamond Princess incident is an avalanche of lawsuits waiting to happen. Oh, right, and the gigantic risk to public health. Oops.

 

[Dr. Mario]

Those numbers are horrifying, that 80.9% means the disease has probably spread beyond any possible hope of containment

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It's horrifying that not more people get debilitating illness or die before they can transmit the disease. That's a take I guess.

 

[Socivol]

I WAS wanting to take the risk with recent news (HIV medicine tests and 80% cases being mild), but Japan is fucking up really bad with trying to contain COVID-19 that I'm starting to believe that I could definitely get the virus if I were to go just from taking transportation there, so I think my trip is looking botched as well. I am so disappoint in the Japanese Government in how they are handling this, as many innocent people will potentially be affected by this major fuck-up.

I do think I am out of luck on the airplane tickets, as someone on Reddit who went through the same airline I am using contacted them about how much it would cost to move the tickets to another date, and they kept quoting an average of $1,000 — which is a lot more than what I paid for my tickets, so I think I'm going to have to take an "L".

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I went ahead and cancelled my trip to Japan two weeks ago I was supposed to leave on 3/25. I filled out the insurance claim and hopefully the agency isn't a dick about it. If they are I will just get a doctor's note that says I can't travel as my doctor has advised against going.

 

[electricblue]

It's horrifying that not more people get debilitating illness or die before they can transmit the disease. That's a take I guess.

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People don't go to the doctor because of mild symptoms, they don't bother to stay home from work, school, etc either. It would be far better for a disease to become severe quickly, because it limits how much it can spread and thus, how much misery it will cause overall.

 

[ss_lemonade]

If they are canceling flights to non-quarantine areas they might be canceling my flight as well eventually.

Japan may soon have the most cases outside of China.

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I'll probably have to look into this as well. Also supposed to have a flight to Japan around the last week of March

 

[elty]

I think you have it backwards. If I remember correctly the spray version is the live attenuated one. The shot is the dead virus and is less effective.

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Yes, the spray flu vaccine is the live attenuated one, and no it is actually LESS effective than the dead virus shot, It was actually withdrawn from the market for a year or two few years ago because it sucks so much.

Against influenza A/H1N1pdm09, VE was 67% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62% to 72%) for IIV and 20% (95% CI: −6% to 39%) for LAIV4

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Live Attenuated and Inactivated Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

In a combined analysis from 5 studies, LAIV4 was less effective than IIV against influenza A/H1N1pdm09 in all pediatric age groups.

pediatrics.aappublications.org

 

[MasterChumly]

I've been seeing more articles pop up about how people are underestimating the economic impact of Coronavirus. With numbers like this it's hard to argue against them. The ripple affects of manufacturing/tourism are just now starting to ripple across the world.

 

[GalvoAg]

The whole Diamond Princess incident is an avalanche of lawsuits waiting to happen. Oh, right, and the gigantic risk to public health. Oops.

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I've always heard it's a bitch to sue a cruise line. Good luck to them but it's going to be a long road.

 

[CelestialAtom]

I went ahead and cancelled my trip to Japan two weeks ago I was supposed to leave on 3/25. I filled out the insurance claim and hopefully the agency isn't a dick about it. If they are I will just get a doctor's note that says I can't travel as my doctor has advised against going.

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Keep me posted, as I am curious how this will play out with insurance companies. I have read horror stories, but hoping yours works out. What insurance company did you go with?

 

[kingslunk]

This damn virus is really putting a damper on things.

I've had my japan trip booked for like 8+ months. Now the fact that I even have to think about the possibility of canceling pisses me off. V_V

 

[aspiegamer]

760 million people have neighborhood restrictions?! Yes, China, I totally believe you when you say things are getting back to normal.

I've always heard it's a bitch to sue a cruise line. Good luck to them but it's going to be a long road.

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Not a lawyer, but I'm guessing a lot of that has to do with waivers and/or international waters and/or ships with X flag being in Y port. Something like "behing held just offshore Z country and entering the kind of dangerous incident maybe not outlined in your reservation contract" sounds like you could get more than a couple lawyers to fish on it, though.

 

[CelestialAtom]

This damn virus is really putting a damper on things.

I've had my japan trip booked for like 8+ months. Now the fact that I even have to think about the possibility of canceling pisses me off. V_V

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Booked mine in May of 2019, so I'm right there with you. It absolutely sucks.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

This damn virus is really putting a damper on things.

I've had my japan trip booked for like 8+ months. Now the fact that I even have to think about the possibility of canceling pisses me off. V_V

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Unless I see a spike of deaths of Western tourists in non-cruise ship scenarios, I think I'm still going
May the power of anime protect me

 

[Mandos]

The whole Diamond Princess incident is an avalanche of lawsuits waiting to happen. Oh, right, and the gigantic risk to public health. Oops.

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I mean most of it is on the country not allowing them proper quarantine measures on shore. The cruise staff did what they could to keep everyone fed and they didn't nessecarily have the capabilities to quarantine themselves if it's a full boat, it's simply not what a cruise boat is designed for. That's on Japan for not arranging a quarantine center on shore
Edit: sorry meant the cruise ship off japan

 

[AnotherNils]

Am I understanding this right? They hotboxed all those people on the cruise ship for two weeks to just throw up their hands and let them off before they could all be medically cleared?

 

[Deleted member 2802]

The whole Diamond Princess incident is an avalanche of lawsuits waiting to happen. Oh, right, and the gigantic risk to public health. Oops.

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Who are they going to sue? Japan? Carnival Cruises?

If this was on American soil maybe, but this was a geopolitical emergency
I don't think that Carnival Cruise Corp was able to negotiate with the Japanese government on how to handle an unknown viral quarantine scenario in Japanese territory.

I haven't read the policy for cruises, but I imagine their asses are all covered legally for viruses like Norovirus outbreaks. All they do is give free cruises.

Am I understanding this right? They hotboxed all those people on the cruise ship for two weeks to just throw up their hands and let them off before they could all be medically cleared?

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Holland America lied or twisted the truth and got drumpf to ask for a favor.
I think about 500-1000 people are back home, about 1000 are in a Cambodian hotel - 300 of those got on a plane to Dubai today, and there are still like 200-500 people/crew stuck on the ship.

 

[Halbrand]

Canada's not going to quarantine "not infected" Canadians from the Diamond Princess cruise either are they?

 

[Arebours]

I've been seeing more articles pop up about how people are underestimating the economic impact of Coronavirus. With numbers like this it's hard to argue against them. The ripple affects of manufacturing/tourism are just now starting to ripple across the world.

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oh yeah, we are currently in the walking ghost phase, but supply chain buffers are already starting to run empty.

 

[Deleted member 41520]

Those numbers are horrifying, that 80.9% means the disease has probably spread beyond any possible hope of containment

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Huh? 80.9% having mild symptoms means 4 out of 5 people who get it will not be terribly sick.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk

The deadliness of the virus advances progressively with the age of the patient, research suggests.

www.bbc.com

• Some 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical.
• The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8%.
• For children up to 9, there have been no fatalities and up to the age of 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2%.
• For the next age groups, the fatality rates increase gradually: For people in their 40s it is 0.4%, in their 50s it is 1.3%, in their 60s it is 3.6% and their 70s it is 8%.
• Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
• Identifying which existing illnesses put patients at risk, the study finds cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension

"Looking forward, the paper found that "the epidemic curve of onset of symptoms" peaked around 23-26 January before declining up to 11 February."

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Maybe we should go into mitigation mode.

 

[CelestialAtom]

Am I understanding this right? They hotboxed all those people on the cruise ship for two weeks to just throw up their hands and let them off before they could all be medically cleared?

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Yeah, it's a giant shit-show. Those people could potentially spread the virus all over not just Japan, but other countries, too. This is a disaster.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

Rest easy people drumpf is getting ignoring daily briefings

President Trump is getting daily briefings on coronavirus, White House says

The novel coronavirus has infected more than 73,000 people around the world, mostly in mainland China. Follow our live news coverage for the latest updates.

www.cnn.com

We're keeping track of everything, the safety of Americans is the No. 1 priority for the President and the administration

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[Nivash]

I'm simply saying it's a wash in Hubei. We know for a fact that Wuhan wasn't testing people that died before they could get a bed. So you cant take the study and say the numbers are much lower because they aren't counting all the undiagnosed people with mild symptoms. We also have people with severe symptoms and dying in Wuhan without treatment. So I think it's best to take the study at face value verses arbitrary changing the numbers for the better.

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I still disagree. Let's use the study as the starting point: if 80 % of diagnosed cases in the study show mild cases, it indicates that the disease is weighted towards mild symptoms. Couple that with the fact that a severely ill person is far more likely to seek healthcare than a mildly ill person and you get an inherent bias towards detecting the severe cases in a greater proportion than mild cases. I wouldn't call that argument arbitrary.

We also see documented cases showing that symptoms can range all the way down to only showing on scans. In my opinion, the true number of infected could be several times larger than the official numbers, which is typically the case early on in an epidemic. The probability that we have a number of undiagnosed deceased cases equal to the number of undiagnosed mild cases seems highly unlikely. It would show up as excess deaths in demographically statistics alone. It would basically require several times more people to die without a diagnosis than those with a diagnosis.

 

[Socivol]

Keep me posted, as I am curious how this will play out with insurance companies. I have read horror stories, but hoping yours works out. What insurance company did you go with?

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I have it through Allianz Global Assistance I submitted the claim about two weeks ago and I haven't heard anything back yet.

 

[KDR_11k]

I looked up the SARS epidemic to see how that compares, apparently it was like 8000 people infected? So wait, SARS was a complete handling failure by China and it hit 8000, SARS2 saw drastic quarantine measures quickly (well, after the local govt couldn't cover it up anymore) and is already at like 10x that?

 

[CelestialAtom]

I have it through Allianz Global Assistance I submitted the claim about two weeks ago and I haven't heard anything back yet.

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That was the one I originally considered, but their policy has it where if I purchase the insurance past 01/22/20, I wouldn't be covered due to COVID-19, so I backed off. I really hope they get back to you soon. I would also try calling them to see if there is any progress on their end since they haven't sent anything yet.

 

[Linkura]

I have it through Allianz Global Assistance I submitted the claim about two weeks ago and I haven't heard anything back yet.

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They are probably super backed up. I'm sure there's a ton of claims to go through.

 

[Socivol]

That was the one I originally considered, but their policy has it where if I purchase the insurance past 01/22/20, I wouldn't be covered due to COVID-19, so I backed off. I really hope they get back to you soon. I would also try calling them to see if there is any progress on their end since they haven't sent anything yet.

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They are probably super backed up. I'm sure there's a ton of claims to go through.

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I'm not too concerned about it as my trip wasn't until 3/25 and if they try anything I will be able to get a doctors note advising me not to travel so it should be good. I'm sure they are backed up, when filling out the form they have a specific dropdown for corona on there so I'm assuming many people are cancelling. I'm super bummed because my friend and I have been planning this trip to Tokyo since 2018.

 

[electricblue]

I looked up the SARS epidemic to see how that compares, apparently it was like 8000 people infected? So wait, SARS was a complete handling failure by China and it hit 8000, SARS2 saw drastic quarantine measures quickly (well, after the local govt couldn't cover it up anymore) and is already at like 10x that?

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SARS was luckily less infectious, it could've gone very badly

 

[elty]

I looked up the SARS epidemic to see how that compares, apparently it was like 8000 people infected? So wait, SARS was a complete handling failure by China and it hit 8000, SARS2 saw drastic quarantine measures quickly (well, after the local govt couldn't cover it up anymore) and is already at like 10x that?

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1. SARS has a near 100% hospitalization rate
2. SARS is less infectious

That mean there were less SARS infected people running around in the community to infect people.

 

[MasterChumly]

I still disagree. Let's use the study as the starting point: if 80 % of diagnosed cases in the study show mild cases, it indicates that the disease is weighted towards mild symptoms. Couple that with the fact that a severely ill person is far more likely to seek healthcare than a mildly ill person and you get an inherent bias towards detecting the severe cases in a greater proportion than mild cases. I wouldn't call that argument arbitrary.

We also see documented cases showing that symptoms can range all the way down to only showing on scans. In my opinion, the true number of infected could be several times larger than the official numbers, which is typically the case early on in an epidemic. The probability that we have a number of undiagnosed deceased cases equal to the number of undiagnosed mild cases seems highly unlikely. It would show up as excess deaths in demographically statistics alone. It would basically require several times more people to die without a diagnosis than those with a diagnosis.

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Let's say there's two deaths that occur and not diagnosed. That means there could be 80 cases of mild Coronavirus undiagnosed. So it's not outlandish to think it could be a wash. There are literally so many people sick in Hubei not all of them can get the care that they need. We have story after story after story confirming this. Now if you want to argue that the study from the Chinese is useless because we don't know the real numbers I wouldn't disagree. I just take issue with you arbitrarily making the Numbers better than what the study gives. There's no proof to indicate you should be able to do that.

 

[DrewFu]

Apparently Canadians returning from the Westerdam are being "urged" to "self-isolate". There were 271 Canadians onboard.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...-self-isolate-1.5466131?__vfz=medium=sharebar

No quarantine. Absolute stupidity.

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The way Canada is handling this whole thing is mind boggling.

 

[Timbuktu]

1. SARS has a near 100% hospitalization rate
2. SARS is less infectious

That mean there were less SARS infected people running around in the community to infect people.

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I guess that's if we're assuming the SARS numbers from Mainland China back then was accurate. Hong Kong had a lot more SARS cases than coronavirus so far, even though Mainland China has dramatically more cases this time round.

 

[DrewFu]

edit: nevermind

 

[CelestialAtom]

I'm not too concerned about it as my trip wasn't until 3/25 and if they try anything I will be able to get a doctors note advising me not to travel so it should be good. I'm sure they are backed up, when filling out the form they have a specific dropdown for corona on there so I'm assuming many people are cancelling. I'm super bummed because my friend and I have been planning this trip to Tokyo since 2018.

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Let me know what they say once you hear back, as I am curious about your experience. I just spoke with ANA on the phone regarding how much it would cost for me to change my plane tickets and they said it would be a $120 fee (A LOT cheaper than I had anticipated), which would give me my entire amount that I paid back in the form of credit to use on any date up-to one year from the day I purchased it and just pay the difference if there is any. So, not a major loss like I had planned.

 

[Tremagus]

Man, really hoping things either turn around for the better soon because my wife and I were supposed to go to Tokyo for our honeymoon in May! We've been planning since last June and have everything paid off already so this is quite the downer.