Coronavirus Discussion Thread (See Staff Post) [UPDATE: WHO declares global emergency. See threadmarks]

[SpankyDoodle]

Rest easy people drumpf is getting ignoring daily briefings

President Trump is getting daily briefings on coronavirus, White House says

The novel coronavirus has infected more than 73,000 people around the world, mostly in mainland China. Follow our live news coverage for the latest updates.

www.cnn.com

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I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he's keeping a very close eye on this VS other stuff, he's in the age range where getting it could be deadly and he's a known germaphobe isn't he?

My concern is him listening to and believing any bullshit that the Chinese president/media feed him, like that tweet he made a week or two back announcing it would be over by April. :\

 

[WhySoDevious]

Looks like the virus might have made its way to Honduras, Central America.

Llega a Tegucigalpa primera hondureña con sospechas de coronavirus

<div id='DTElementID-21351297' class='QuickRead'>La hondureña estuvo de vacaciones en Taiwán y pidió que se le realizaran los exámenes preventivos. Fue trasladada al Hospital del Tórax.</div>

www.laprensa.hn

52 year-old woman who had been vacationing in Taiwan. Traveled to Honduras via LAX and El Salvador. Still not confirmed, but she is in quarantine.

 

[poklane]

Looks like the virus might have made its way to Honduras, Central America.

Llega a Tegucigalpa primera hondureña con sospechas de coronavirus

<div id='DTElementID-21351297' class='QuickRead'>La hondureña estuvo de vacaciones en Taiwán y pidió que se le realizaran los exámenes preventivos. Fue trasladada al Hospital del Tórax.</div>

www.laprensa.hn

52 year-old woman who had been vacationing in Taiwan. Traveled to Honduras via LAX and El Salvador. Still not confirmed, but she is in quarantine.

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Hopefully they're already tracking the people who were on the plane with her so they can be quarantined as well if she were to test positive.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

👨‍🍳 👏

 

[Garchia3.0]

 

[Rowsdower]

Canada's not going to quarantine "not infected" Canadians from the Diamond Princess cruise either are they?

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They are.

Number of Canadians on Diamond Princess testing positive for COVID-19 virus rises to 32

Fifteen Canadians on-board the ship had previously tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.

www.thestar.com

"The aircraft will bring passengers from Japan to a Canadian Forces Base in Trenton, after which passengers will be assessed and transported to the NAV Canada Training Institute in Cornwall, Ontario, to undergo a further 14-day period of quarantine," wrote Harvey.

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Also:

In an earlier statement Global Affairs said that passengers would be screened before going on the evacuation aircraft, and those who exhibit symptoms of COVID-19 would be transferred to the Japanese health-care system.

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The 32 Canadians, plus who knows how many more, who test positive are staying in Japan it seems.

 

[Rowsdower]

US CDC released a new factsheet on preventing COVID-19 from spreading to others if infected or suspected of infection.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

 

[maabus1999]

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Curious how they react when cases return as it most likely will since it has become wide spread enough to possibly be self sustaining around the globe. Full lockdown once case detected?

 

[Nivash]

Let's say there's two deaths that occur and not diagnosed. That means there could be 80 cases of mild Coronavirus undiagnosed. So it's not outlandish to think it could be a wash. There are literally so many people sick in Hubei not all of them can get the care that they need. We have story after story after story confirming this. Now if you want to argue that the study from the Chinese is useless because we don't know the real numbers I wouldn't disagree. I just take issue with you arbitrarily making the Numbers better than what the study gives. There's no proof to indicate you should be able to do that.

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I don't think the study is useless at all, it's another big puzzle piece. I actually have tremendous respect for the Chinese research community's actions throughout the epidemic. The rate at which they're producing high quality studies like this is astounding.

That said, we can only study what data is available and there's every reason to suspect that the data is inherently biased. My point is that we need to view the findings from that perspective. They're a starting point for discussion, not an end point. This thread has a general issue with this, in my view, which leads some people (not you particularly) to draw premature conclusions. The repeat claim that the R0 is 6.6 based on that one study is one such claim that keeps getting repeated. The notion that asymptomatic spread is a settled matter is another (it's still controversial)

I don't think my argument is arbitrary. I'm arguing from known principles that I believe are as correct in this epidemic as in previous ones. You don't have to agree with my argument but it is coming from a logical standpoint. I still think that the undiagnosed cases most likely skew away from the proportions found in the study towards milder cases overall, even if we don't have the data to show that to be true or not, because that, to me, is the most logical assumption.

Curious how they react when cases return as it most likely will since it has become wide spread enough to possibly be self sustaining around the globe. Full lockdown once case detected?

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If SARS-CoV-2 actually gets to a point where it establishes a self sustaining population there probably won't be any point in keeping quarantines or lockdowns. It will spread through the population regardless in time and the cost of those measures won't be worth it in the long run. We'd have to deal with it similar to seasonal influenza.

 

[Garchia3.0]

Curious how they react when cases return as it most likely will since it has become wide spread enough to possibly be self sustaining around the globe. Full lockdown once case detected?

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Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. I also wonder how things will develop now that several weeks have gone by since the outbreak got declared.

 

[low-G]

I've been seeing more articles pop up about how people are underestimating the economic impact of Coronavirus. With numbers like this it's hard to argue against them. The ripple affects of manufacturing/tourism are just now starting to ripple across the world.

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Indeed, most industries will be somewhat affected, and some dramatically.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

 

[Vern]

Reopening my restaurant on the 24th. Hoping people will come out of their houses. At this point probably personally heading back to China early March, but still playing it by ear. Really eager to get back out there and back to regular life.

 

[Alcoremortis]

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According to a friend of mine who lives there, they're also opening up all the schools as well. The foreign teachers are in full rebellion and refusing to return until their governments say it's safe.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

Interesting TIL Youtubes about COVID19 are all demonetized.

Reopening my restaurant on the 24th. Hoping people will come out of their houses. At this point probably personally heading back to China early March, but still playing it by ear. Really eager to get back out there and back to regular life.

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🙏

 

[WinniethePimp]

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I absolutely agree with the man...however, unfortunately only one government that doesn't take this seriously is enough to plunge the whole world into a pandemic if/when bad luck is involved. Looking at Japan right now, but a couple others come to mind that simply do not seem to put in place ALL the necessary tools of precaution in order to contain/slow this thing.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

Symptom-based screening "ineffective" at detecting travelers with coronavirus, report says

The novel coronavirus has infected more than 73,000 people around the world, mostly in mainland China. Follow our live news coverage for the latest updates.

www.cnn.com

Screening ineffective at detecting COVID-19
🤔

 

[Sign My Guestbook!]

Symptom-based screening "ineffective" at detecting travelers with coronavirus, report says

The novel coronavirus has infected more than 73,000 people around the world, mostly in mainland China. Follow our live news coverage for the latest updates.

www.cnn.com

Screening ineffective at detecting COVID-19
🤔

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Well of course it's ineffective, you can't detect covid through looking for symptoms in the first four days of vector transmission. During that period it's basically a ghost virus.

 

[MasterChumly]

What a fucking nightmare

 

[Linkura]

What a fucking nightmare

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Yeah I just saw this on CNN. No shit it wasn't sufficient. And anyone who tested negative at some point is going home.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

Well of course it's ineffective, you can't detect covid through looking for symptoms in the first four days of vector transmission. During that period it's basically a ghost virus.

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👻

What a fucking nightmare

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It was the cheapest and easiest solution.
I think they did the right thing with the knowledge they had at the time.
Hindsight is . . . 20/20

 

[rubidium]

I'm afraid if they had the knowledge from the first place they'd rejected it from docking as it i was not run by Japanese company.
Nonetheless, the best they could do know is to have as many beds open as possible for quarantine.

 

[Linkura]

It was the cheapest and easiest solution.
I think they did the right thing with the knowledge they had at the time.
Hindsight is . . . 20/20

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The fact that Japan is just letting people walk off without an additional on-land quarantine is unconscionable to me. US is doing the right thing in requiring an additional quarantine before re-entry. Which is good after the US fucked up with Westerdam.

 

[Sendero]

LA countries aren't really reporting new cases, not sure if that's a relief or something to be really worried about.

Most local authorities likely don't even have the proper protocols in place (outside of capitals/main cities).

 

[Sibylus]

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Not too surprising, but that the very young aren't being hit hard is excellent news. Hoping that holds.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

LA countries aren't really reporting new cases, not sure if that's a relief or something to be really worried about.

Most local authorities likely don't even have the proper protocols in place (outside of capitals/main cities).

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Most of the test kits are probably in Asia.
I'm sure hospitals worldwide are aware of the symptoms patterns.
Heavy fever, cough that can be confirmed with lung scarring on CT scan.

If some tourist got it and is backpacking the countryside, not much you can do about that kind of scenario.

 

[poklane]

Welp, total cases in South Korea just jumped from 31 to 46

 

[Deleted member 48991]

👻

It was the cheapest and easiest solution.
I think they did the right thing with the knowledge they had at the time.
Hindsight is . . . 20/20

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The mainichi has an interesting article analyzing why the quarantine failed.

Experts ponder why cruise ship quarantine failed in Japan - The Mainichi

TOKYO (AP) -- As an extraordinary two-week quarantine of a cruise ship ends Wednesday in Japan, many scientists say it was a failed experiment: The sh

mainichi.jp

"Obviously the quarantine hasn't worked, and this ship has now become a source of infection," said Dr. Nathalie MacDermott, an outbreak expert at King's College London.

She said the exact mechanism of the virus' spread was unknown. Although scientists believe the disease is spread mostly by droplets -- when people cough or sneeze -- it's possible there are other ways of transmission.

"We need to understand how the quarantine measures on board were implemented, what the air filtration on board is like, how the cabins are connected and how waste products are disposed of," MacDermott said.

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"There could also be another mode of transmission we're not familiar with," she said, noting the possibility of environmental spread and the importance of "deep-cleaning" the entire ship to prevent people from touching contaminated surfaces.

During the 2002-2003 outbreak of SARS, a related virus, more than 300 people were infected through a defective sewage system in a Hong Kong housing estate. MacDermott said it was possible there was a similar issue aboard the Diamond Princess.

"There's no reason this (quarantine) should not have worked if it had been done properly," she said.

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Also some parts on why Japan is not imposing a second quarantine:

Japanese health officials say a 14-day quarantine on the ship is adequate, noting that all but one of more than 500 Japanese returnees from the epicenter of the virus in China who initially tested negative were found to be virus-free at the end of their 14-day quarantine.

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[Shigeru Omi, a former regional director for the World Health Organization] said quarantine is one of the measures considered effective early on. But the virus has already made its way into local communities across Japan, where untraceable cases have been popping up, he said.

At this stage, "the spreading of the virus will be inevitable, and that's why quarantine is out of the question," Omi said.

He said the focus now should shift from border control to preventing the spread in local communities.

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[Linkura]

Welp, total cases in South Korea just jumped from 31 to 46

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This is a nightmare.

 

[data]

Welp, total cases in South Korea just jumped from 31 to 46

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Is it centralized to one area?

 

[Deleted member 2802]

Is it centralized to one area?

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13 new patients reside in Daegu, 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul.

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Daegu isn't a big city. It's midsize (2-3M) and not next to a port.
It's got it's own high speed train and internationl airport though . . . with flights to China

 

[Porkepik]

Daegu isn't a big city. It's midsize (2-3M) and not next to a port.
It's got it's own high speed train and internationl airport though . . . with flights to China

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11 case are from a church from which a patient diagnosed before came from plus 2 medical worker the patient saw at the hospital before being diagnosed

 

[Sendero]

Most of the test kits are probably in Asia.
I'm sure hospitals worldwide are aware of the symptoms patterns.
Heavy fever, cough that can be confirmed with lung scarring on CT scan.

If some tourist got it and is backpacking the countryside, not much you can do about that kind of scenario.

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I know, the problem is not its arrival (it will happen, sooner or later), but how it does it.

If it's in quantified cases, where the involved can be isolated, then most health organizations will be able to handle.

But if cases start to appear in large burst, that stuff can become problematic.

 

[data]

11 case are from a church from which a patient diagnosed before came from plus 2 medical worker the patient saw at the hospital before being diagnosed

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So mainly one super spreader that seems to be relatively contained because they know who they contacted

 

[Bear]

How the fuck did this happen?

Westchester County quarantines 26 people who returned from China amid Coronavirus concerns

More than two dozen people have been quarantined in Westchester County because they’ve traveled to areas in mainland China affected by the coronavirus, officials said. The 26 travelers have b…

www.nydailynews.com

I live here. Why aren't they providing more info about where these people are?

 

[Lishi]

How the fuck did this happen?

Westchester County quarantines 26 people who returned from China amid Coronavirus concerns

More than two dozen people have been quarantined in Westchester County because they’ve traveled to areas in mainland China affected by the coronavirus, officials said. The 26 travelers have b…

www.nydailynews.com

I live here. Why aren't they providing more info about where these people are?

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They are getting quarantined, what is the issue?

 

[Deleted member 2802]

How the fuck did this happen?

Westchester County quarantines 26 people who returned from China amid Coronavirus concerns

More than two dozen people have been quarantined in Westchester County because they’ve traveled to areas in mainland China affected by the coronavirus, officials said. The 26 travelers have b…

www.nydailynews.com

I live here. Why aren't they providing more info about where these people are?

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Prolly cause they don't want vigilantes doing vigilante stuff.

 

[Halbrand]

How the fuck did this happen?

Westchester County quarantines 26 people who returned from China amid Coronavirus concerns

More than two dozen people have been quarantined in Westchester County because they’ve traveled to areas in mainland China affected by the coronavirus, officials said. The 26 travelers have b…

www.nydailynews.com

I live here. Why aren't they providing more info about where these people are?

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Seems normal to me

 

[Deleted member 2802]

11 case are from a church from which a patient diagnosed before came from plus 2 medical worker the patient saw at the hospital before being diagnosed

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Apparently the Shincheonji Daegu Church is part of a cult religion

Shincheonji Church of Jesus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Shincheonji followers are taught to believe that Lee, the founder, is the second coming or the returned Jesus Christ.[7] Shincheonji claims that the Bible is written in metaphors and only its founder Lee could interpret and understand.[8] Before founding his own religious movement, Lee was a member of the group known as Olive Tree.[9]

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[Bear]

They are getting quarantined, what is the issue?

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It just seems weird how they weren't immediately quarantined and were allowed to travel home. How did they travel home? Where did they stop? Where do they live?

Maybe I'm just being ultra sensitive because I take the train into the city from Westchester every day. Did not think it would actually hit in my literal backyard.

 

[EvilChameleon]

What makes a disease more contagious than another? Like for instance ebola. Ebola is way more contagious than this, and yet, when compared to the most recent outbreak, there are already about 60,000 times more cases of COVID19 than there were cases of ebola during the 2013-2016 outbreak.

Or I suppose measles. Measles is highly contagious. Is the only reason we don't hear about measles outbreaks that often, if at all, is because most people are, smartly, vaccinated?

 

[kmfdmpig]

How the fuck did this happen?

Westchester County quarantines 26 people who returned from China amid Coronavirus concerns

More than two dozen people have been quarantined in Westchester County because they’ve traveled to areas in mainland China affected by the coronavirus, officials said. The 26 travelers have b…

www.nydailynews.com

I live here. Why aren't they providing more info about where these people are?

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Two key parts of that article are:

The 26 travelers have been confined to their homes, even though none have tested positive for the virus.
"These people are not ill, but we still have to monitor them," County Health Commissioner Sherlita Amler said at a news conference Tuesday.
The quarantines are voluntary, Amler said. None of those quarantined have any symptoms of the disease, though they may have been exposed to it, she said.

What makes a disease more contagious than another? Like for instance ebola. Ebola is way more contagious than this, and yet, when compared to the most recent outbreak, there are already about 60,000 times more cases of COVID19 than there were cases of ebola during the 2013-2016 outbreak.

Or I suppose measles. Measles is highly contagious. Is the only reason we don't hear about measles outbreaks that often, if at all, is because most people are, smartly, vaccinated?

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The fact that people have it and can pass it on to others for weeks before they start to show symptoms makes it easy to spread. Ebola is too deadly and fast acting to spread as widely as the flu or Coronavirus.

 

[Bear]

Two key parts of that article are:

The 26 travelers have been confined to their homes, even though none have tested positive for the virus.
"These people are not ill, but we still have to monitor them," County Health Commissioner Sherlita Amler said at a news conference Tuesday.
The quarantines are voluntary, Amler said. None of those quarantined have any symptoms of the disease, though they may have been exposed to it, she said.

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Yeah but it's the "they may have been exposed to it" part that irks me.

 

[endlessflood]

What makes a disease more contagious than another? Like for instance ebola. Ebola is way more contagious than this, and yet, when compared to the most recent outbreak, there are already about 60,000 times more cases of COVID19 than there were cases of ebola during the 2013-2016 outbreak.

Or I suppose measles. Measles is highly contagious. Is the only reason we don't hear about measles outbreaks that often, if at all, is because most people are, smartly, vaccinated?

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I'm not a doctor, but I imagine the extremely high fatality rate of Ebola makes it harder to transmit, because corpses don't catch taxis or go to dinner parties or holiday on cruise ships.

As to measles, yes. There has been a recent resurgence of measles in developed countries, and it's linked to the brain dead anti-vaccination movement :(

 

[Chikor]

Ebola is way more contagious than this

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I don't think that's true.

 

[Metalmucil]

So mainly one super spreader that seems to be relatively contained because they know who they contacted

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Man, I hope so. Seeing this inch ever closer is just annoying and a bit scary.

 

[MasterChumly]

How the fuck did this happen?

Westchester County quarantines 26 people who returned from China amid Coronavirus concerns

More than two dozen people have been quarantined in Westchester County because they’ve traveled to areas in mainland China affected by the coronavirus, officials said. The 26 travelers have b…

www.nydailynews.com

I live here. Why aren't they providing more info about where these people are?

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I think this is just generic US citizens traveling back from China. Anybody that had actually been to Hubei is in a forced quarantine.

 

[Sibylus]

I don't think that's true.

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Not true to my understanding either. Infection requires a lot.

 

[Alastor3]

What makes a disease more contagious than another? Like for instance ebola. Ebola is way more contagious than this, and yet, when compared to the most recent outbreak, there are already about 60,000 times more cases of COVID19 than there were cases of ebola during the 2013-2016 outbreak.

Or I suppose measles. Measles is highly contagious. Is the only reason we don't hear about measles outbreaks that often, if at all, is because most people are, smartly, vaccinated?

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What are you talking about? Ebola isn't a airborne disease. The kill rate is pretty high but it affected a part of africa where they werent used to safety health protocol, especially while caring for the deceased which where others got infected.

 

[EvilChameleon]

What are you talking about? Ebola isn't a airborne disease.

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Am I confusing contagious with infectious?