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Coronavirus Discussion Thread (See Staff Post) [UPDATE: WHO declares global emergency. See threadmarks]
- Thread starter Deleted member 19070
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Yeah, if anything major happens, my intuition is that it'll be less severe, but longer-lasting as it slowly works through the sprawl.
The spread depends. The most virulent would be symptomatic sufferers in intimate contact with other people. Many dinners and meetings don't rise to that level, and even if asymptomatic spread is possible, in all likelihood it accounts for far fewer infections. Besides, you're missing the point. For every infected person, there's far more empty space and air for the viral particles to fall short in than in many places on earth. The cities also tend to sprawl more than many world cities of note as well.
I think that Texas case is someone who was on a plane that was quarantined 6 days ago as it landed, just as a precaution due to it coming from Hubei, and the people were kept on base for observation. Hopefully that will be fully contained.
www.ksat.com
CDC officials detail quarantine process at JBSA-Lackland for 250 plane passengers
A plane transporting as many as 250 people who will be quarantined as a precaution against the novel coronavirus is arriving at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland.
www.ksat.com
No, I'm just asking if most people would be more comfortable with the information and advice from this organization over local governments ?
Absolutely. They were a bit slow to act this time, but they generally know what they're talking about.
World Health Organization - Wikipedia
Coronavirus confirmed in quarantined patient in San Antonio.
:watermark(cdn.texastribune.org/media/watermarks/2020.png,-0,30,0)/static.texastribune.org/media/files/3f56a7e1a0c8d1c3e0d17c1cf3b28a37/Coronavirus%20REUTERS%20TT%2002.jpg)
www.texastribune.org
First case of coronavirus identified in Texas; group returning from China quarantined in San Antonio
The patient is among a group of people who returned from Hubei Province, China, and are under federal quarantine at a military base in San Antonio.
www.texastribune.org
So why does everyone in Asia think this is bullshit advice?
Team never mask will never be a thing because at the end of the day paranoia always trumps science unfortunately...Shouldn't washing hands more often be the message ?
Team never mask will never be a thing because at the end of the day paranoia always trumps science unfortunately...Shouldn't washing hands more often be the message ?
It seems like everyone (except the US stock market) has assumed China was under-reporting the numbers for quite a while. Has that contributed to potential lack of preparedness in other countries? Such under-reporting could easily give cover for some places to perhaps not take all the early steps they might, to avoid scaring people and risking their local economy. In the US for instance I know the CDC seems to be on top of it, but the President's rare comments about it are basically, "Nothing to worry about." Some of that apathy seems politically motivated. We've already had more cases of coronavirus in the US than ebola in the 2014 epidemic, and he was extremely vocal about that virus.
It's absolute nonsense that this will only seriously affect second and third world countries. If the virus spreads in Europe, Japan, United stages etc the exact same thing will happen that happened in China.
Also saying that only the old or sick are at risk is severely understating it.
Wouldn't that make people more prepared if they knew China was lying?
I get infections in my sinuses very easily due to my terrible allergies so it is a concern.
If I cancel my Japan trip I'll probably go to WDW lol. No cases anywhere near there yet. They also don't really get Chinese tourists. Some Japanese, but not really Chinese.
That's my point. If all the world leaders knew for certain how bad it is from the start, they'd have to act boldly, decisively and early. For example, Trump doesn't want to act, he barely even talks about this and when he does it's to downplay it as no big deal, and the published numbers give cover for that.
So why does everyone in Asia think this is bullshit advice?
Team never mask will never be a thing because at the end of the day paranoia always trumps science unfortunately...Shouldn't washing hands more often be the message ?
That's a bit of a sweeping statement. Coughs are quite common this time of the year and I'd rather this 'Asian' way than people coughing everywhere without a mask or even covering their face.
Coronavirus confirmed in quarantined patient in San Antonio.
First case of coronavirus identified in Texas; group returning from China quarantined in San Antonio
The patient is among a group of people who returned from Hubei Province, China, and are under federal quarantine at a military base in San Antonio.
Some people in my social circle are freaking out about this.
The patient has literally never stepped out of quarantine lol
Oh I know lol I'm not worried at all and have been trying to explain this to them.
So you personally think WHO advice should not be based on science but on "asian" peoples feelings?
I live in China and face masks are promoted as the only way for healthy people to be outdoors, meanwhile I see no soap or hand washing in the public bathrooms, even at fancy malls
I live in China and face masks are promoted as the only way for healthy people to be outdoors, meanwhile I see no soap or hand washing in the public bathrooms, even at fancy malls
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For people still wondering why this seems to be so much more deadly in Wuhan than in the countries outside of China so far... i personally see it like this: the Health care system was absolutely overwhelmed in Wuhan as this thing spread like wildfire there and they had a huge community outbreak. Now given the fact that we know that around roughly 20% of the infected people will need hospital care (or else they pretty much die)i'm pretty sure a bunch of those 20% in Wuhan simply did not GET that care and died in the end.
Now in other countries outside China, there simply has not been a community transmitted outbreak on the scale of Wuhan (YET anyway) so whenever someone there was diagnosed, well they were able to simply be put in a hospital bed and be properly taken care of until recovered.
If/when a huge outbreak DOES happen in any 1st world country however, make no mistake about it, we WILL see a lot of deaths from this just like in Wuhan simply because any healthcare system will be overwhelmed when suddenly you have a huge group of people needing specialized hospital care at once. We are not prepared for this in any way, i feel like most countries right now are simply sitting there, hoping to NOT get a huge outbreak or else....
Now in other countries outside China, there simply has not been a community transmitted outbreak on the scale of Wuhan (YET anyway) so whenever someone there was diagnosed, well they were able to simply be put in a hospital bed and be properly taken care of until recovered.
If/when a huge outbreak DOES happen in any 1st world country however, make no mistake about it, we WILL see a lot of deaths from this just like in Wuhan simply because any healthcare system will be overwhelmed when suddenly you have a huge group of people needing specialized hospital care at once. We are not prepared for this in any way, i feel like most countries right now are simply sitting there, hoping to NOT get a huge outbreak or else....
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Lol so the 'super spreader' and most of the infected are in Brighton which is where I go to uni and now I find out that the London woman who went to A&E is in Lewisham, which is in the same part of South London that I live. My barber is also in Lewisham and I was planning on getting my haircut tomorrow. And to add insult to injury she was in Heathrow a few days ago and so was I having just come back from Colombia. What are the fucking chances.
I've got a cold but I'm assuming its just from going from a super hot climate to a cold one at the moment.
I've got a cold but I'm assuming its just from going from a super hot climate to a cold one at the moment.
If you are lucky enough to survive COVID-19, your next major battle is bankruptcy.
The Toronto patient carried the virus to the plane and managed to infect no one despite a 15 hours flight. So I guess just being in the same airport would put you in the "super ultra low risk" category.
I hope this doesn't mean they're going to do that nightmare swab-up-the-nose test to everyone that presents with flu.
That's good to hear. I'm probably fine, but this series of coincidences are just freaking me out a bit.
I'll be honest, it would take a lot for me to wear a mask. I know it's probably dumb or stubborn of me to feel that way.
Masks are less about preventing you from contracting it, and more about preventing you from spreading it.
I never said it would not "seriously affect" first world countries. I said "affected as such", basically meaning a crazy widespread outbreak in every city like it is in China. While it's deffo gonna spread in first world countries it won't be the ubiquitous horrorshow it'll be in developing ones - like how it is in China.
Unless we all seriously drop the ball... Which isn't unlikely.
I meant that only the old or infirm are at risk of death, fatality. "True danger," as I said. Which is the real worst case scenario. It is likely to damage any healthy persons lungs but won't kill them. Multiple people who contracted it have got away Scot free.
Ira Longini at the WHO is predicting that up to two-thirds of the world population could catch COVID-19:
www.smh.com.au
Coronavirus could infect two-thirds of globe, top scientist says
As the number of coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top infectious-disease scientist warns that things could get far worse: two-thirds of the world's population could catch it.
"Could" covers a lot of range here.Ira Longini at the WHO is predicting that up to two-thirds of the world population could catch COVID-19:
Coronavirus could infect two-thirds of globe, top scientist says
As the number of coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top infectious-disease scientist warns that things could get far worse: two-thirds of the world's population could catch it.
Ira Longini at the WHO is predicting that up to two-thirds of the world population could catch COVID-19:
Coronavirus could infect two-thirds of globe, top scientist says
As the number of coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top infectious-disease scientist warns that things could get far worse: two-thirds of the world's population could catch it.
lol.. how the hell would the last third avoid it. I'm more and more convinced that the WHO is full of idiots.
It's not like its going to stop by itself.
It would require countries to never let anybody into their country ever again. If COVID-19 isnt stopped it will become another flu travelling the world
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I assume that would just be predicting that the corona virus would just become common place like the flu where most but not all people get it.
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we know if yesterday's clinically diagnosed numbers were just for that 1 day or if they also added all the numbers for the days before that. Today's numbers should give a good insight on that I think, if we just have a regular increase or drop like previous days that means China did not add numbers for days before February 12th, which means the true death count could indeed be twice as high as reported.
And even then there's obviously plenty of good reason to question all the numbers provided by the Chinese government.
Ira Longini is co-director of the Centre for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, and a WHO adviser, so rather than being an idiot I'd say they're fairly well informed on this stuff. That's not to say they're right of course, but not an idiot.
so do you know anyone who is immune to the flu?
i think he might be trying say something else.. but not sure what
Yes? The thing with the flu is that it evolves so rapidly that multiple strains outpace it annually.
I guess they have to model the number of people who live in isolated or remote communities. How infectious the disease is. Incubation times. Amount of human to human contact. Etc. I don't know, I'm not a WHO adviser on infectious diseases.
Just by the nature of infectious diseases not everyone in the world is going to catch it. Even in the United States not every single person catches the flu.
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