I don't know but I have been thinking about this.
Probably not a crash but correction in the industry. Yes I know today they are making money. The question is will it keep going. That's all stockholder want to know. Some of what I speak of is over the next ten years not next year. This is all about stocks. Games are just a commodity to stock holders, which is what this all about, its not about gamers.
Already seen some of the old names disappear (Lionhead, Bizarre,Acclaim,long list) and some have headed for the exits (F$%^ Konami...oops they are doing quite well business wise, a record year, thanks for asking ). The stock market has learned that there is only so much growth in video game stocks. Guaranteeing great returns and increases year over year is hard (EA, Activsion/Blizzard). Its insane they even tried for so long.
There are other things in play too. Not going to happen next year but longer term. When you start to realize there will be fewer young people to play games versus how many older folks there are out there (baby boom bubble and some Asian countries not having kids, think what has been happening in Japan for many years for a declining population, that is going to happen here and China soon). If the big demographic is young people for the gaming business with fewer of them buying is not going to help attract stock holders. Stock holders will go elsewhere. Probably senior health care and funeral homes. Govt. debt and money the baby boomers will be taking out of stocks (which will decrease values) and Social Security to pay for old people diapers will take all your free cash any way. :(
In case you think I am BS you: Some fun facts from the US census: "By 2030, one in five Americans will be 65 years and older ,by 2035, we project that older adults will outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history ( 2030: 21% of the US will be 65, today its 15%", We are also living longer so they will be taking money out of the system for longer).
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2018/demo/P25_1144.pdf The report also says the only reason the US won't have a population decline is because of immigration, not because of natural births. Fun reading! For China:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46772503 There goes the mobile market!
The crash was mainly because of stupid business moves by Atari (why it was called the Atari Shock). Unlike 1983 there really are only 4 or 5 choices. Back then there were probably more than dozen. So that at least means you have a less fragmented customer base. Which means it won't be so bad as '83 but it will change. We could easily lose one console. If one of them left would it matter? Again not this next generation coming but the one after that (2027?). The games would just go to the one that is left, it would create a bit of a monopoly which I don't think anyone wants so maybe hope that all that consoles do well and stay. Maybe that would keep things profitable enough for investors.
What you will have left is a few AAA companies that will make the big shooters and sports games. MMOs...I don't know what will happen to them, maybe old people will want to play them. Then you will have a small bunch of AA games devs making action games. The RPG and Puzzles will be made by small indy developers who if they sell 50-100k units more or less can make a living.
Not hoping bad things happen but just not seeing outside money wanting to support this type of activity for the returns they are going to get. Especially with all that sweet wheel chair customization business just sitting there. If loot boxes and other revenue streams are not acceptable by gamers the only thing left is to raise prices or leave the industry like Konami or what they are doing right now in downsizing their businesses. At some point that effects content. Which then effects sales. So gaming is not going away, its just going to get 'right sized'.
The population stuff is based on numbers so thats going to happen. What investors do? Is any ones guess. But change is in the air.
Oh and yeah I am sorry what my generation ( I am at the end of baby boomer age) did to all of you, specially the kids. Really wasn't my fault I tried but ... yeah...sorry. Remember to vote.