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Cryptocurrency |OT2| Money's New ERA Shoots for the Moon! | Read OP for Thread Rules

Ryu

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
111
ETH retracing to 150-165 in the next week or so before another possible move up seems likely to me.
Would you say that we'll see another low or will the next few moves be the last in this price segment? Right now I'm planning to put in some money in my Coinbase or Bitpanda account again.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,417
Would you say that we'll see another low or will the next few moves be the last in this price segment? Right now I'm planning to put in some money in my Coinbase or Bitpanda account again.
My current feeling is that ETH will retrace a bit, to at least the 160's, then move up to the mid-200's. Sometime after that, I see it dropping back to 100 or 80, and possibly making a new low. I expect BTC to hit around 1.9k sometime this year.

Before the 160’s retrace, it's possible that it gets to the 190's but I am not taking that risk.

As always, none of this might happen. Trade at your own risk.
 
Oct 27, 2017
99
My current feeling is that ETH will retrace a bit, to at least the 160's, then move up to the mid-200's. Sometime after that, I see it dropping back to 100 or 80, and possibly making a new low. I expect BTC to hit around 1.9k sometime this year.

Before the 160’s retrace, it's possible that it gets to the 190's but I am not taking that risk.

As always, none of this might happen. Trade at your own risk.
Any (price) point where this view will be invalidated? BTC hitting 6k? 10k?

Seems like a lot of people think the market has turned now.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,417

Brandson do you agree with Tone?
The current bottom doesn't look finished given the severity of the bear market. I think it either gets retested at least once more, or breaks. BTC could go to 6k, 8k, 10k, and still come back down. But at the same time it would be unfortunate to miss such a big move up.

I expect BTC to test the 6k region, and possibly break it just to get more retail money, only to head back to 3k. This all could take many months.

If BTC heads to 10k before retesting the bottom, I think it comes back. If it retests the bottom first, 10k would be much healthier.

As always, this is just what I think. The market doesn't have to do anything just because I think it should.
 
Oct 27, 2017
705
The current bottom doesn't look finished given the severity of the bear market. I think it either gets retested at least once more, or breaks. BTC could go to 6k, 8k, 10k, and still come back down. But at the same time it would be unfortunate to miss such a big move up.

I expect BTC to test the 6k region, and possibly break it just to get more retail money, only to head back to 3k. This all could take many months.

If BTC heads to 10k before retesting the bottom, I think it comes back. If it retests the bottom first, 10k would be much healthier.

As always, this is just what I think. The market doesn't have to do anything just because I think it should.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Makes a lot of sense to me.
 
Oct 27, 2017
705
I mean, it'll dump again and pump again. You know how these things go. :P
Trying to predict when it'll dump and when it will pump, and by how much, is what traders do. Brandson is a trader. And some of us like to dabble in that too, so him sharing his predictions with us is appreciated. And it's not like this thread is getting any action otherwise these days...

Brandson, what TA techniques do you like to use (Elliott Wave, etc.)?
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,417
Brandson, what TA techniques do you like to use (Elliott Wave, etc.)?
I use a few things. I have had success with fractal analysis, but it feels like voodoo sometimes and many people don't like it when I tell them I use fractals.

I don't like Elliott Waves because people can use them to draw any outcome. Although, the market typically moves in certain ways, consistent with wave movements. So while I would never chart out waves to pick an exact target, the market does often like to move in waves of 3 before correcting, on various time frames.

I primarily use 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes for my analysis, sometimes watching 4H or 1H, but not usually making trading decisions on anything less than 1D. I observe chart patterns, but don't trade them in isolation. I like tracking more complex structures (fractals) instead. These markets tend to repeat, although there is something of an art in translating a prior pattern to the present. I like RSI a lot. There is so much you can do with RSI beyond just the simple overbought/oversold metric a lot of people use it for. RSI helps me in so many ways. Historical support/resistance levels and regions are also critical. I don't use Fibonacci levels much as I find it easier to just look at the historical levels and trends.

I also look at sentiment, data on leveraged positions, and various counter trading signals intended to influence buyers and sellers (like CNBC). While I wouldn't trade based on any of those in isolation, together with what I see in the charts it can make me more confident in my strategy.

I like to try to think what scenario would screw over the most people in any given situation. Crypto moves by triggering stops, liquidations, panic, and fomo. I like to consider whether there is a good opportunity for any of those things to occur, and if not, what would have to happen to create the circumstances for those opportunities. In markets like this, the masses do not often win. So if everyone thinks something will happen a certain way, that's probably not happening.

I'm also learning all the time, studying my mistakes and figuring out what I missed.

Trading is much more than predicting where the price will go. Actually entering the trade, and staying in the trade through endless attempts to shake you out of it is the hard part. Trading psychology is not to be underestimated. It helps to have a plan for what you are looking for to buy/sell, and what would invalidate your theory.

So I use a lot of things, throw it all in the mix, and try to come up with something that makes the most sense to me. I like confluence of analysis all pointing to the same thing. If I'm not confident enough after all my analysis, I tend to sit out and wait.

There isn't always a trade for me right now, but there will be eventually, provided I keep watching.
 
Oct 27, 2017
705
I use a few things. I have had success with fractal analysis, but it feels like voodoo sometimes and many people don't like it when I tell them I use fractals.

I don't like Elliott Waves because people can use them to draw any outcome. Although, the market typically moves in certain ways, consistent with wave movements. So while I would never chart out waves to pick an exact target, the market does often like to move in waves of 3 before correcting, on various time frames.

I primarily use 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes for my analysis, sometimes watching 4H or 1H, but not usually making trading decisions on anything less than 1D. I observe chart patterns, but don't trade them in isolation. I like tracking more complex structures (fractals) instead. These markets tend to repeat, although there is something of an art in translating a prior pattern to the present. I like RSI a lot. There is so much you can do with RSI beyond just the simple overbought/oversold metric a lot of people use it for. RSI helps me in so many ways. Historical support/resistance levels and regions are also critical. I don't use Fibonacci levels much as I find it easier to just look at the historical levels and trends.



I like to try to think what scenario would screw over the most people in any given situation. Crypto moves by triggering stops, liquidations, panic, and fomo. I like to consider whether there is a good opportunity for any of those things to occur, and if not, what would have to happen to create the circumstances for those opportunities. In markets like this, the masses do not often win. So if everyone thinks something will happen a certain way, that's probably not happening.
I feel the same way about this.

Trading is much more than predicting where the price will go. Actually entering the trade, and staying in the trade through endless attempts to shake you out of it is the hard part. Trading psychology is not to be underestimated. It helps to have a plan for what you are looking for to buy/sell, and what would invalidate your theory.
i only started lightly dabbling in trading very recently. I don't understand any TA techniques, but I follow a bunch on Twitter and YouTube and make decisions partly based on what they say and partly on what I think/gut feeling. But yeah I sometimes struggle sticking with a plan and not changing my orders
 
Nov 15, 2017
2,455
But does the ADC team has patents? I only go all in on projects with meaty (pending) patents. And genius Gurus.
 
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Oct 26, 2017
3,381
Amazing that SV lasted so long. It was always a joke.


OTOH I feel the same way about BCC though so /shrug. When all those trash coins finally start literally dying off Ill begin to trust the market enough to put more money into it.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,417
Yeah, I exited my crypto position on this news. Managed to act fast enough to avoid the stop loss waterfall that followed. My short term projections for eth are all invalidated because of this now. Looking to revisit the lows and possibly see 1.9k btc later this year, which I was expecting anyway, but I think it will come a bit sooner now.
 
Oct 25, 2017
888
The court documents make for a pretty interesting read. If I understand everything correctly, Bitfinex was solvent until they got screwed over by CryptoCapital, who "lost" their money or something, starting in mid-2018 -- and things turned ugly in October or November when Bitfinex realized (?) they were fucked and couldn't process withdrawals anymore without "borrowing" Tethers from themselves.

What's pretty hilarious is how many people -- or, well, bots -- are now dumping their shitcoins for... Tethers?

Edit: What I don't quite understand is, how transfering Tethers to themselves helps Bitfinex processing fiat withdrawals. I guess they could have used it to buy crypto (big pump happened on April 2nd-4th which would kinda fit the timeline) and then sell that crypto for fiat... but where? And if they sold it off, why didn't it impact the price? Think I'm missing something here.
 
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Nov 15, 2017
2,455
Hold on to your butts
"Bitfinex Withdraws $89 Million From Cold Wallet as Users Signal Exodus Over Legal Debacle"
Bitfinex, which has the same owner as USD stablecoin Tether (USDT), has not publicly explained the reason for the withdrawals, which come as both companies face a fresh debacle over potentially missing funds.

Over roughly the past 12 hours, Bitfinex has moved large amounts of bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) from its wallets to unknown addresses, along with smaller amounts of other coins such as makerdao (MKR), online transaction monitoring resource Whale Alert revealed.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitf...ion-as-users-signal-exodus-over-legal-debacle

Let's see how it pans out. Don't think that this is the final dagger to USDT and the start of market chaos though.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,417
There are potentially other legal issues related to Tether and Bitfinex that might come to light if the NY AG indeed receives the business records from Tether and Bitfinex that they are requesting for this investigation. I imagine that there will be considerable resistance to turning over such data and documents. If they get the data, this may very well be only the tip of the iceberg of what is to come.

If you decide to continue to trade crypto in the face of a potential slow-dismantling of Tether, consider the risks carefully.
 
Oct 30, 2017
778
Decided to sell my btc, feeling this whole thing can go south very quickly. Keeping a close eye on it though in case the drop isn’t as severe as I’m expecting.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,732
Rode a good portion of the rally, near the top I was about 10 dollars south of ETH hitting 190, which would have gotten me back to my ATH in USD value.

As it stands, I've managed to basically get back to my portfolio value in pure USD from last year this time. Now that Tether is likely going to kill this run, I'm just gonna sit on the sidelines and see how ETH reacts to key price points.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,821
There are potentially other legal issues related to Tether and Bitfinex that might come to light if the NY AG indeed receives the business records from Tether and Bitfinex that they are requesting for this investigation. I imagine that there will be considerable resistance to turning over such data and documents. If they get the data, this may very well be only the tip of the iceberg of what is to come.

If you decide to continue to trade crypto in the face of a potential slow-dismantling of Tether, consider the risks carefully.
Holy crap, its been 15 months since I sold out and stopped paying attention and we are still watiing for the Tether scam to be shutdown?
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,692
Sorry but no. NY AG is not conspiring with Bitfinex for their profit. You can't lose investors money and cover it up with your own other money, and thats putting aside the joke that is a Panama company named Crypto Capitol supposedly losing those control of those funds and the fact that they used Tether reserves to do it.

I can see the argument that this benefits Bitcoin eventually (people dumping tether for BTC) but considering 95% of volume is tether and that there is no way to redeem for cash (usdt dumpers would just be selling to other traders) it's much more likely tether loses its peg through some means or another and that those holding USDT at that time will be rekt because no one will want to buy it from them.

Another interesting point is the excerpt in the suit that points out that stablecoins backed by an agreement could very well be securities. Which makes sense, it's just a token that represents a legal agreement maintained by a central enterprise. It's not much different than a certificate of deposit, it's the company's promises and efforts that give it any sort of value.
 
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Oct 26, 2017
503
Finland
Shill alert:

Deloitte (largest consulting company in the world) has hopped onboard VeChain and has migrated their certificates from Ethereum to VeChain mainnet.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/activity:6528907937400778752/

We wrote more transactions than Bitcoin over the weekend by migrating our client work from Ethereum to VeChain - we managed to execute 20+ smart contract transactions per second.

This is a massive achievement for our EMEA Blockchain Lab, VeChain and the DNV GL platform. We are #makinganimpact that matters and rolling out blockchain in production.

Cillian Leonowicz
Director, Consulting at Deloitte and EMEA Blockchain Lab Co-Lead
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,417

Since this is what they have admitted in a self-serving submission, that means, at best, Tether is 74% backed. It is currently trading at 0.9895 to USD on Kraken. If the market was rational, that should drop to 0.74. Since those pegs are likely manipulated, I am not expecting such a big drop until their operations are seized.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,417
Official filings state that Bitfinex's bank account used for receiving client funds has been forfeit. And the market doesn't care, or perhaps the real participants in this space are insignificant compared to the size of the fake ones that control the price.