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Dark Phoenix Tracking For Record Low X-Men Franchise Opening ( Below The Wolverine)

Oct 31, 2017
3,622
Fox isn’t doing anything with it anymore lol. But do you, chief.



Lol you say this till the MCU manages it with ease.

I love Logan, but his importance to the roster is overstated.
I’m just saying that if Fox managed to get over 10 films in this series, I would call that a big accomplishment and they must be doing something right. Maybe not to the hardcore fan, but it’s been a good run.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,036
I’m just saying that if Fox managed to get over 10 films in this series, I would call that a big accomplishment and they must be doing something right. Maybe not to the hardcore fan, but it’s been a good run.
The “something right” is merely the fact that they produced moves often enough to satisfy their licensing agreement. The quality has been all over the place - from damn good, to garbage - but too much of it as been due to errors that can no longer be owed to inexperience. it’s safe to say they’ve fallen woefully short of the series’ potential.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,234
I don't understand...how can it be"tracking for record low" when it hasn't been released yet, and isn't even gonna be out within a couple weeks? Are they saying the movie distributor decided not to open on very many screens? What exactly are they tracking?
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,860
I don't understand...how can it be"tracking for record low" when it hasn't been released yet, and isn't even gonna be out within a couple weeks? Are they saying the movie distributor decided not to open on very many screens? What exactly are they tracking?
Math and statistics. It's the same reason we have BO results Sunday morning before the weekend is even up that are accurate to the +/- 1%

They are tracking engagement all across online in terms of searches and mentions on top of pre sale info if available. With hundreds of major releases every year, you have an ever increasing sample size to base projections by looking back at. Things change closer to release obviously, as marketing ramps up but patterns remain
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,234
Math and statistics. It's the same reason we have BO results Sunday morning before the weekend is even up that are accurate to the +/- 1%

They are tracking engagement all across online in terms of searches and mentions on top of pre sale info if available. With hundreds of major releases every year, you have an ever increasing sample size to base projections by looking back at. Things change closer to release obviously, as marketing ramps up but patterns remain
There are no presales yet, the movie is too far out. So what math and statistics is this no-name site measuring? Are they reliable? How have their guesses and speculation (which is all this can possibly be at this point) been in the past?
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,234
You don't seem to understand how this works.
Thus my post beginning with "I don't understand... " :P As far as I can tell, how this works is the website scanned forums like this, found a movie people were badmouthing months before release, and made an article claiming that they did some sort of measuring to determine that very thing to get people from those forums to post the link and get lots of clicks.
 
Oct 28, 2017
3,994
I've been trying to tell you, Bob.

You have a chance to eat the cost on DP and NM and saving face in the long run rather than attempt to recoup costs on DP (throwing good money after bad), having it bomb, then being forced to make a hard decision on canning New Mutants after the fact.

Not only is Dark Phoenix coming off of Apocalypse (one of the worst of the X-Men movies, if you can believe that) but fans generally are anxious to see MCU X-Men. These movies performing poorly, both financially as well as critically, will hurt the X-Men brand in more ways than one and it will just make the wait even long while they give it a chance to recover.

Just look at the lukewarm reception (by Spider-Man standards) to Spider-Man: Homecoming from general audiences despite being critically well-received and fans being excited about MCU Spider-Man. Spider-Man 3 and the Amazing Spider-Man films hurt the brand and it was already 3 years after ASM2, but people were feeling tired of Spider-Man. Even ITSV, which was critically well-received and successful for it's $90M budget, made $375M worldwide, which is almost half of the similarly superhero-themed, Big Hero 6 or The Incredibles, and a fraction of The Incredibles 2 which came out the same year.

Just rip the bandaid off now, Bob, and do us all a favor. I bet even Simon Kinsberg secretly wants you to can it, despite it being his baby, his first film, something I'm sure he feels proud about in some way and wants people to see, I bet future Simon is screaming across the multiverse for you to erase it from existence so it doesn't taint his directing career before it starts and embarrasses these actors who will have to live with this stinker on their resume.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,099
Thus my post beginning with "I don't understand... " :P As far as I can tell, how this works is the website scanned forums like this, found a movie people were badmouthing months before release, and made an article claiming that they did some sort of measuring to determine that very thing to get people from those forums to post the link and get lots of clicks.
That's pretty much what they do.

The original piece goes into the following detail:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-x-men-dark-phoenix-the-secret-life-of-pets-2/

Box Office Repo said:
Dark Phoenix
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 55 million
PROS:
  • The returning cast of James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Sophie Turner, and others from the First Class/Days of Future Past/Apocalypse trilogy will offer continuity and likely bring back fans of those chapters.
  • To date, every film in the X-Men film franchise (11, including the Deadpool films) has opened north of $50 million domestically, demonstrating its reliability over the past two decades.
  • Director Simon Kinberg and early trailers offer promise that the film will appeal to fans disappointed by the last on-screen portrayal of the Dark Phoenix story — considered one of the most popular in X-Men and Marvel comic lore — in 2006’s The Last Stand.
CONS:
  • Early social media traction has fallen shy of Apocalypse‘s at the same point before release, generating significantly less Twitter discussion thus far.
  • The revelation of a major character’s apparent demise in the most recent trailer has muddied buzz recently.
  • In addition to likely paying for the lukewarm reception of Apocalypse two years ago (which managed just a 2.36x multiple from opening weekend), this entry now faces the challenge of overcoming franchise fatigue as fans are already looking ahead to how Disney will reboot the characters and property in the wake of the Fox acquisition. This could significantly diminish Dark Phoenix‘s attempts to course correct the franchise, regardless of the quality of the movie itself.
So they're looking at the performance of past movies in the franchise, audience interest in the cast members and the amount of discussion on Twitter over time.

This could be described as educated tea leaf reading, but for someone who would like to know whether the movie is going to do well or not this could be the kind of long term forecast that would be helpful. By "someone" I mean cinema chains, food suppliers and other groups working in the industry rather than fans or members of the wider public.

To all of us it seems obvious that this movie isn't going to do well but to some guy who supplies popcorn or plastic novelty cups it might not be that clear, this kind of long term forecast might help with that.
 
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