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December 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
by the way, ryng, don't we still have an avatar bet open? i just can't remember the conditions exactly.
something with "next zelda" against "next splatoon" or so...
No chance in the West. Animal Crossing will have a larger impact. Especially in terms of demos which is the main point I'm stressing. Not specifically units. As more Switch consoles are sold you ask who new ones are sold to. Pokemon not only hits kids but brings in multiple Switch systems owned per household and Animal Crossing brings in female gamers. That is the main reason those 2 franchises are particularly important outside of the set amount of units they sell.
Yep, we do. The bet was Splatoon 2 VS Breath of the Wild (Switch only) sales worlwide.
Thought the bet was about lifetime so we still have waaaaaaaaaaaaay too much to see lul. Last numbers we got were 4.7 million Zelda and 3.61 million for Splatoon 2, back in September 2017.
Splatoon 2 will eventually surpass Zelda, but it's gonna be a long run....
Oh ok, if we talk about West only then i can agree.
By this definition, PS4 will still be first since in the last few years, it's been outperforming the XB1 by more than 2:1, so around a 42% marketshare for the PS4 :P
Splatoon 2 will sell over 5 million in Japan. It's already at 2 million on only 5 months, and it's the kind of game which sell until the console die, and even after that.
I think in Japan Splatoon 2, AC, and Pokémon are gonna be all close, the indiscuss Switch TOP 3.
Nobody told you that this is a divination exercize ? Stars don't lie ;)
Not to interject but that is the worst wager. No one specified more? It legally goes until manufacturing shuts down or something?
is this for me?
AC was around 4.5m by the end of 2015.
The new price sku did over 116k in 2016
This is all retail. Someone probably has updated numbers. But I'm pretty sure it's over 5m
Yeah, I think it will be close. We'll also have to see what future bundles are.
Splatoon 2 has a head start at least. Cause AC needs to prove it can do those numbers again. Whereas Splatoon is on its way.
I doubt Nintnedo will screw up AC though.
Tecnically... yes... or when someone give up because he understand he lost.
We had an mp on GAF with all the specific conditions. too bad my GAF account is gone so there is no way i can show that, but i remember the rules.
It was just a joke :(
Humor me, I just got back from a trip and saw this thread moving
So really PS4 / Switch is still a toss up.
PS4 is probably anywhere between 1.2 - 1.5
Switch is at least 1.4 but probably not over 1.5 by much at most. Depending on if Nintendo's estimate was conservative or not.
So really it could still shake out either way there. It looks like Switch is the most likely winner coupled with other insight from myself and others but its still theoretically plausible PS4 barely squeezes out ahead. The thing that makes it tough to know for sure is Cyber Monday stock, as really as far as I know, none of us have any strong idea what stock looked like through online channels.
PS4 is probably anywhere between 1.2 - 1.5
Switch is at least 1.4 but probably not over 1.5 by much at most. Depending on if Nintendo's estimate was conservative or not.
So really it could still shake out either way there. It looks like Switch is the most likely winner coupled with other insight from myself and others but its still theoretically plausible PS4 barely squeezes out ahead. The thing that makes it tough to know for sure is Cyber Monday stock, as really as far as I know, none of us have any strong idea what stock looked like through online channels.
OP
OP
Since they both use the correct system format, it'll get them both (better to over-pull than under-pull), and then I look to see which was made later. Thanks for helping others get the format correct!
Yeah, with the shift to November sales for the more core systems (or just really good sales), really need to compare historical November+December totals to get a better picture.
I still have my gaf account but I'm too lazy to look it up.
i remember the conditions to be about lifetime. i already told ryng that it's senseless if we do not agree on a specific deadline but he insisted on these conditions.
i did not want to dig any deeper here because i literally could smell his fear. he was still young and it was just natural for him to be paralysed when it all came down to betting against a widely known and universially acclaimed sales expert.
in the end i am still happy because it's better to potentially win a bet that will never end than to lose against ryng and wear a vore avatar.
Hopefully the stock was good enough for me to have a good chance to win the second in a row month lol. It was the best selling product at walmart for cyber Monday
WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT.
You thought i was afraid? That was not the case lol
I was young at the time, but i was already well known after just the first month, expecially because GAF was not my first sales site. I had a year on VGC , and i made my mistakes there. When i was on GAF, i had already experience, thank Grima (god) i would say, because as the crazy guy i am, i know that if with something very wrong i would have become mocket by the GAF comunity.
But that's not the case. I am still the guy who makes "strange" predictions some times compared to other people, but many times, they are spot on.
On Gaf, my first big bet ( not avatar bet, but bet in general ) was Splatoon. I had confidence in that, and i knew that Splatoon performance would have been very important for my character. Splatoon performed as i predicted. So my big first prediction was good and i was able to show who i am.
I also made some interesting bet about that game. All won, by the way.
But back to what you said, do you know why i don't wanted a deadline? Because i am into Nintendo more than you, and more than many user to be honest, and i know how sales for Nintendo games work. Is not the same of others games. They sell, sell, and sell, trend change, some years are up YOY, some drop hardly, but then sell again until the console is not dead... And maybe even after that.
I'll be honest with you, i thought Splatoon 2 on Switch was gonna crush Zelda, because i thought it was super unlucky for BOTW to sell 10 million only on Switch, and i knew Splatoon 2 would have easy reach that.
Instead , both are easy gonna do over 10 million.
So, i'll let you decide. Want to continue this bet? If yes, the results won't be clear until some years.
I'm ok anyway, since bets need to be fun if they are friendly bets like this, if you think is too stressfull, then i'm ok if you don' t want to continue.
Ah probably the Japanese numbers then. Or the bank algorithms picked up on our Nintendo Direct megathread of crazy.
They would know how much their console sold in Dec before the NPD results though.
Congratulations to CosmicBolt , Kill3r7 , Lelouch0612 , panda-zebra , and Tarrin for being Most Likely to Place in Top 5 for December! You win pretty much nothing, since it could easily be the case that none of you actually end up in the real Top 5.
...Just me goofing around with the parametric, don't read into it.
...Just me goofing around with the parametric, don't read into it.
Truer words have never been spoken.
Ryng come on. This is Snyder we are talking about here. Don't take things so personally/seriously. No need to post walls of text to assert your self confidence. Just have a nice chuckle and thank Snyder for his comedic genius before going about your day.
Already read into, numbers ninja has spoken, champagne corks popping.
btw didn't Sony sell 175k less in December 2017 in Japan then December 2016? In Dec 2016 Sony sold something 475k and in 2017 Dec only 300k.
After number from several European countries are in, I'm inclined to make the bold statement that Switch will be the best selling console in 2018.
Both in the US and WW.
Both in the US and WW.
Share? What does that mean?
Edit. I was thinking they mean they got a bigger share than the PS4 (which would make them #2 of the month), but you can get a bigger share while still selling less than the PS4 (and/or less than other XBO months), so, I just don't know what it means.
Edit 2.
Probably % of total market.
But that seems weird with the strong Switch and something most likely in the 3x% range.
First time in have no clue at all and can't wrap my head around it.
But that seems weird with the strong Switch and something most likely in the 3x% range.
Please tell us, what that could possible mean.
First time in have no clue at all and can't wrap my head around it.
