December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December

[Jarod McChicken]

Not sure if posted in ERA and don't know where to post it:

PS4 has been the best selling console in Spain (top 4 European market, top 7 worldwide market in gaming revenue, traditional Sonyland country) during 2018:
https://vandal.elespanol.com/notici...ido-la-consola-mas-vendida-de-2018-en-espana/

Units sold ruing 2018 in Spain:
PlayStation 4 - almost 650.000
Nintendo Switch - almost 390.000
Nintendo 3DS - almost 75.000
Xbox One - almost 73.000

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Well, this could have been a thread you know :D

So, the difference between Switch and PS4 in the US (300K) is actually almost offset by Spain alone, despite the Switch doing actually pretty good. The presence of PlayStation in that country is something.

 

[Deleted member 36708]

Be nice to get some FPS on this successful console

 

[Sander VF]

Well, this could have been a thread you know :D

So, the difference between Switch and PS4 in the US (300K) is actually almost offset by Spain alone, despite the Switch doing actually pretty good. The presence of PlayStation in that country is something.

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Yeah, the European countries not named France and the rest of the world is why I'm not confident on Switch coming out on top worldwide.

Had the gap in US been considerably larger, it would have been a different story. Those markets may be smaller, but they add up.

Not impossible for Switch to do it, but I find the PS4 being #1 worldwide more likely.

 

[Ichi]

Knew the Xbox had to be over 40 by now. People have been saying 30-35 for what feels like the entire generation.

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But isn't that shipped not sold through

 

[srtrestre]

Holy smokes at the Neogaf thread:

"Someone in another thread actually suggested they may be intentionally devaluing themselves in preparation for a potential buyout. Which is absolutely insane. But it hadn't occurred to me before, and in a crazy way, could explain some of their absolutely asinine regarding this event, the Switch, and the year coming up."

Are some of those people serious?

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The initial backlash worked in my favor in the end since I fell asleep waiting for Switch pre-orders to go up. I was able to get a pre-order in as soon as I woke up with zero trouble.

But yeah those people were dead serious lol.

 

[Sander VF]

It's not like the hot takes were limited to that thread.

The whole gaming side of GAF was basically Switch concern troll pandemonium for a while.

 

[nib95]

It's not like the hot takes were limited to that thread.

The whole gaming side of GAF was basically Switch concern troll pandemonium for a while.

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The forums are basically usually wrong. According to most or many, the Wii was going to fail. The PS3 was supposed to dominate. The Xbox One was going to steamroll the PS4 and put Sony potentially out of business. The Switch was going to fail as bad as the Wii U and so on.

 

[ThisIsBlitz21]

Isn't that considering that U.K. is the biggest market for Xbox in Europe while it's basically dead in Japan?

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I dont seem to understand.
Xbox sold like 4.34 million consoles in the US. If it did indeed sell just 6 million worldwide, than US accounted for about 72% of xbox one's sold. Yes, Xbox does terrible outside of US/UK, but not 72% bad. The US rate generally hovers around 55-60%.

 

[Deleted member 50374]

The forums are basically usually wrong. According to most or many, the Wii was going to fail. The PS3 was supposed to dominate. The Xbox One was going to steamroll the PS4 and put Sony potentially out of business. The Switch was going to fail as bad as the Wii U and so on.

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Don't forget Vita & PSP domination and Vita TV killing Apple TV

That's why the only thing I believe Nintendo will do is sell a second Switch without dock like in Japan

 

[Herb Alpert]

The forums are basically usually wrong. According to most or many, the Wii was going to fail. The PS3 was supposed to dominate. The Xbox One was going to steamroll the PS4 and put Sony potentially out of business. The Switch was going to fail as bad as the Wii U and so on.

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You're right Except the Xbox one part imo.
At the time of reveal I don't remember anyone saying it would crush the PS4. Maybe a few lunatics.

 

[Sander VF]

The forums are basically usually wrong. According to most or many, the Wii was going to fail. The PS3 was supposed to dominate. The Xbox One was going to steamroll the PS4 and put Sony potentially out of business. The Switch was going to fail as bad as the Wii U and so on.

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I believe it simply comes down to thinking that the future will merely be a continuation of whatever the current reality is, without accounting for disruptions.

Switch was gonna fail, because Wii U failed. Xbox would win, because 360 was ahead of PS3 for most of the gen. PS3 would dominate, because PS2 dominated and so on and so forth.

You're right Except the Xbox one part imo.
At the time of reveal I don't remember anyone saying it would crush the PS4. Maybe a few lunatics.

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I think Nib is referring to the takes before the unveils and the whole debacle that followed.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Last year you mentioned Xbox One being around 35 million by the end of 2017. So the Xbox One sold around 6 million last year? Seems a bit low.

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Both numbers are rounded to the nearest million. I wouldn't use them to work out annual sales.

 

[Johnny]

Has someone on Era done a comparison of how many Switches Nintendo sold in the U.S in Q3 this year compared to last year?

 

[ThisIsBlitz21]

Both numbers are rounded to the nearest million. I wouldn't use them to work out annual sales.

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Got it. Thanks.

 

[nib95]

You're right Except the Xbox one part imo.
At the time of reveal I don't remember anyone saying it would crush the PS4. Maybe a few lunatics.

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I was speaking about prior to the reveal. Most thought Microsoft would steamroll Sony, or that Sony would falter in a huge way.

https://www./threads/your-predictions-for-the-big-three-at-the-end-of-the-next-generation.489769/

Hell I think this prediction discrepancy also transcends to software at times too. Most thought Labo was going to be huge initially, only tapering off in the second or third year. Horizon Zero Dawn was voted as most likely to be the biggest flop of 2017, and we all know how that went. Days Gone is now a popular pick for in 2019. Then stuff like Splatoon etc was not expected to be nearly as big as it ended up being. I just think that many who frequent our forums are sometimes not particularly good at gauging these sorts of things, then again, often it's genuinely hard to.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

I think y'all should stop linking to gaf to put up past topic conversations.

 

[ByWatterson]

Bad word of mouth on controls continues to hurt Red Dead.

 

[Shadow_FFVI]

Did the Switch beat the PS4 in 2018 in the US or worldwide? I know NPD's are not worldwide numbers, but does anyone know?

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Did the Switch beat the PS4 in 2018 in the US or worldwide? I know NPD's are not worldwide numbers, but does anyone know?

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US, yes. Worldwide is up for debate but we can't assume it did it yet. European countries add up, and not all of them reported, and we dont know if those numbers can fill the gap made by the US (small) and Japan (large).

 

[Arthands]

How reliable is _SuperData on twitter? I can't fathom how they'd have access to Nintendo digital sales but they reported this

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They are a joke

 

[TheLastYoshi]

Is 2019 the year Madden comes to Switch?

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

But isn't that shipped not sold through

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Sold through I assume if Zhuge has those numbers

 

[slavesnyder]

Holy smokes at the Neogaf thread:

"Someone in another thread actually suggested they may be intentionally devaluing themselves in preparation for a potential buyout. Which is absolutely insane. But it hadn't occurred to me before, and in a crazy way, could explain some of their absolutely asinine regarding this event, the Switch, and the year coming up."

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this is genius

 

[Zedark]

MatPiscatella We've seen some mention that MK8D has sold more units in 2018 than in 2017 in several countries. UK is an example,and Japan just came a little short of that milestone. My question is: has MK8D in the US done similar numbers compared to last year, or is it well below the numbers it did in 2017?

 

[YolkFolk]

 

[m051293]

MatPiscatella We've seen some mention that MK8D has sold more units in 2018 than in 2017 in several countries. UK is an example,and Japan just came a little short of that milestone. My question is: has MK8D in the US done similar numbers compared to last year, or is it well below the numbers it did in 2017?

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If we go by Nintendo's PR from last year and this year, it was already ahead in the US by Dec 17 (but of course, this is with digital presumably included, given that it comes directly from them vs NPD).

Spoiler

Thanks Celine!

Unrelated - I had a few notes for US SW Sales data prior to any PR/Q3 IR data. There isn't any real centralized sales thread (aside from monthly NPD prediction threads, but those focus on HW) so I thought I'd post here for now.

Some software deductions based on a few pieces of PR.

NSW US HW Sales for CY 2017 - indicated as >4.8M. Based on NPD estimates I believe the figure is 4.88M but someone can correct me if that sounds high.

Attach rates for MK8D/BOTW/SMO for CY2017 in US - Indicated as greater than 50%/55%/60% respectively.

US LTD sell-through for MK8D/BOTW/SMO as of Dec 17, 2018 - Indicated as >5.0M/>4.0M/4.7M respectively. Its also possible that the Dec 17 date is only for Smash and sell-through figures for the others are from an earlier date.

Based on the above:

CY 2017 US Sell-Through

BOTW (NSW) - >2.68M
MK8D (NSW) - >2.44M
SMO (NSW) - >2.93M

CY 2018 US Sell-Through (as of Dec 17, 2018)

BOTW (NSW) - >1.31M
MK8D (NSW) - >2.56M
SMO (NSW) - >1.77M

So as of Dec 17 2018, MK8D had already passed up 2017's figures. With at least 14 days of December still pending (maybe more if this data is from earlier), decent chance for BOTW to approach 2M, SMO to pass 2M and MK8D to go past 3.0M.

Bodes strongly for upcoming Q3 data from Nintendo - MK8D was also up for the CY in the UK. The discounted bundle was available in all of Europe I believe (but in limited quantity). Good chance shipments for MK8D are up YoY for Q3.

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[NicknameMy]

What I find most impressive about the results:



And that without including any digital sales. I wonder how the top 20 of the year list would look like with digital sales for Nintendo factored in. Smash in the Top 3?

 

[Zedark]

If we go by Nintendo's PR from last year and this year, it was already ahead in the US by Dec 17 (but of course, this is with digital presumably included, given that it comes directly from them vs NPD).

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Ah, I see, that's exactly what I was looking for! Thanks a lot!

 

[Skittzo]

Yeah, the European countries not named France and the rest of the world is why I'm not confident on Switch coming out on top worldwide.

Had the gap in US been considerably larger, it would have been a different story. Those markets may be smaller, but they add up.

Not impossible for Switch to do it, but I find the PS4 being #1 worldwide more likely.

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Yeah I agree, just going by the reported global shipments it seems very unlikely for Nintendo to have sold through more than 18M this calendar year. It's gonna be close, they shipped just over 8M up to October and Q3 is probably gonna be 10-11M shipped, but even if they have 19M shipped I doubt that equates to over 18M sold through.

The problem is I don't think we'll ever find out, since they don't report sold through numbers for most of the smaller markets.

 

[Annoying Old Party Man]

What I find most impressive about the results:



And that without including any digital sales. I wonder how the top 20 of the year list would look like with digital sales for Nintendo factored in. Smash in the Top 3?

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I agree completely. People are kind of sleeping on this but it's huge, much bigger than everything else. It means Nintendo made most money out of every other publisher in the US. Also, I have no idea how they did it back in 2009. That was a really shitty year for them, how the hell did they make the most revenue? Was it Mario Kart, Wii Sports/Play and Fit selling like crazy 2 years later after release?

 

[khamakazee]

Did you see the post I was quoting? Please try to understand context.

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The context was he was pretty upbeat about how well the Xbox One has been doing in those two areas and your response it's only doing "OK". If the system is at 41 million I would imagine the bulk of those sales represent this region, the topic in discussing and you think that is only OK?

I was speaking about prior to the reveal. Most thought Microsoft would steamroll Sony, or that Sony would falter in a huge way.

https://www./threads/your-predictions-for-the-big-three-at-the-end-of-the-next-generation.489769/

Hell I think this prediction discrepancy also transcends to software at times too. Most thought Labo was going to be huge initially, only tapering off in the second or third year. Horizon Zero Dawn was voted as most likely to be the biggest flop of 2017, and we all know how that went. Days Gone is now a popular pick for in 2019. Then stuff like Splatoon etc was not expected to be nearly as big as it ended up being. I just think that many who frequent our forums are sometimes not particularly good at gauging these sorts of things, then again, often it's genuinely hard to.

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Some also picked Valve to be 1st and let me be clear, this site is much better than that old site.

 

[JayBee]

Be nice to get some FPS on this successful console

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I have a feeling this is the year

 

[Noppie]

That was a really shitty year for them

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They released DSi (increasing interest and DS software sales), Pokémon Platinum and New Super Mario Bros Wii. I guess that was enough together with evergreens and such.

 

[Annoying Old Party Man]

They released DSi (increasing interest and DS software sales) and New Super Mario Bros Wii. I guess that was enough together with evergreens and such.

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To be honest I thought DSi was a fart in the wind. But NSMB was 2009? That kind of justifies things (along with Mario Kart being the GTAV of its time).

 

[Deleted member 3017]

I agree completely. People are kind of sleeping on this but it's huge, much bigger than everything else. It means Nintendo made most money out of every other publisher in the US. Also, I have no idea how they did it back in 2009. That was a really shitty year for them, how the hell did they make the most revenue? Was it Mario Kart, Wii Sports/Play and Fit selling like crazy 2 years later after release?

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Those all continued to sell like crazy + Wii Sports Resort and New Super Mario Bros. Wii launched in 2009. The DS also continued putting up massive numbers in both hardware and software.

 

[DaSorcerer7]

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"When you think you're an expert but don't know shit"

 

[Noppie]

To be honest I thought DSi was a fart in the wind. But NSMB was 2009? That kind of justifies things (along with Mario Kart being the GTAV of its time).

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In just three months, Nintendo DSi has sold more than 1.7 million in the United States alone, according to the NPD Group. I wouldn't call that slow at all. After three months, the original Nintendo DS had sold nearly 1.38 million and Nintendo DS Lite had sold more than 1.07 million. Even the Wii console had sold "only" about 1.52 million after three months. So Nintendo DSi is beating them all.

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https://www.ign.com/articles/2009/08/11/nintendo-minute-081009

At least during launch it performed well, I think. At least should've caused some form of a boost.

 

[Annoying Old Party Man]

https://www.ign.com/articles/2009/08/11/nintendo-minute-081009

At least during launch it performed well, I think. At least should've caused some form of a boost.

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Yeah you're right. Anyway, the biggest news is what nobody expected: Nintendo is having a Wii moment with the Switch, at least in terms of massive revenue in the U.S. market.

 

[JaxJag]

"When you think you're an expert but don't know shit"

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Not to sound like a jerk. But that's pretty much anyone talking about any subject on a message board, lol.

 

[truly101]

The forums are basically usually wrong. According to most or many, the Wii was going to fail. The PS3 was supposed to dominate. The Xbox One was going to steamroll the PS4 and put Sony potentially out of business. The Switch was going to fail as bad as the Wii U and so on.

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I don't recall people thinking the Switch would be a Wii U failure. Most takes seemed excited at the prospect of Nintendo focusing on its strong portable legacy with a console that could do both seems like a can't miss. I think the reveal in January 2017 was a bit underwhelming, and nobody expected it to sell as well as it did out of the gates, but I don't recall a prediction of a flop.

 

[DaSorcerer7]

Not to sound like a jerk. But that's pretty much anyone talking about any subject on a message board, lol.

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True. lol

 

[thecaseace]

The forums are basically usually wrong. According to most or many, the Wii was going to fail. The PS3 was supposed to dominate. The Xbox One was going to steamroll the PS4 and put Sony potentially out of business. The Switch was going to fail as bad as the Wii U and so on.

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A lot of posters appear to project personal preference onto their predictions rather than taking a more objective bigger picture look at how the industry is moving.

Its why I find the constant downplaying of analyst opinions to be so disappointing, yeah they can get stuff wrong but they offer a far more reliable gauge of the performance in the industry than most here.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

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While there were plenty of Switch overreactions early on, there were a few people who made these kind of "educated" pronouncements who were clearly unable to think out of their own boxes.

Some in particular should have stuck to their real areas of expertise, like international cultural customs or shower use protocol.

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

I agree with this. It does feel like years almost that I've been reading the 35m+ figure. Was this a consistent over estimate or did it really take a long ass time to get from 30m to 40m? It seems to sell decently in the U.S and the U.K.

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I think the last estimate we got was some EA exec stating that XboxOne's install base was around 30 mil by the end of 2017.
Before that EA stated 19 mil install base at the end of 2016.
The last official number was 10 million shipped at the end of 2014.

I think Xbox was doing pretty bad between 2015 and 2016, but sold around 10 mil units a year in 2017 and 2018.
2017 and 2018 showing the effect of the One X.

 

[Pooroomoo]

To be honest I thought DSi was a fart in the wind. But NSMB was 2009? That kind of justifies things (along with Mario Kart being the GTAV of its time).

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BTW you also forgot Wii Sports Resort, that also come out 2009 and as far as I recall was big. I know that was not your point but I was wondering myself what was in 2009 :-)

 

[Deleted member 3017]

I don't recall people thinking the Switch would be a Wii U failure. Most takes seemed excited at the prospect of Nintendo focusing on its strong portable legacy with a console that could do both seems like a can't miss. I think the reveal in January 2017 was a bit underwhelming, and nobody expected it to sell as well as it did out of the gates, but I don't recall a prediction of a flop.

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In the previous forum, the overwhelming majority predicted a failure for Switch, ranging from below Wii U numbers to slightly above Gamecube figures. Many of the most optimistic predictions placed it in N64 territory (around 32 million). I'm not going to link to the prediction thread from January, 2017, but it can be easily found via Google search.

 

[EkStatiC]

I am wondering how the success of Switch has impected the plans of the two next gen systems from MSony.

 

[plusaflag]

Not to sound like a jerk. But that's pretty much anyone talking about any subject on a message board, lol.

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I am not defending Evilore but I don't think it's not OK to make fun of someone who is on the wrong side of history.

 

[Pooroomoo]

I am wondering how the success of Switch has impected the plans of the two next gen systems from MSony.

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I strongly suspect both will be offering streaming solutions for their consoles (what I mean by that is you buy the game for the console, and the console will be able to stream it to some device, either a proprietary one or possibly just any device). That's at least what I would do if I were them.

Added: Basically think Vita remote play, but improved and with the Vita like device being a "dumb" streaming only device without its own games, so cheaper to manufacture and cheaper for the consumer. Or maybe their streaming solution will be offered for any device.

 

[Skittzo]

In the previous forum, the overwhelming majority predicted a failure for Switch, ranging from below Wii U numbers to slightly above Gamecube figures. Many of the most optimistic predictions placed it in N64 territory (around 32 million). I'm not going to link to the prediction thread from January, 2017, but it can be easily found via Google search.

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To be fair there really weren't many people seriously predicting it would sell worse than the Wii U. Those posts were more just knee-jerk reactions to the conference.

But yeah overall I think most predictions from the old site were probably around 20-30M max, which has already been surpassed less than 2 years in.