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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,003
Carlsbad, CA
MatPiscatella

2018 NPD results for the whole year are coming this month right?
Jan 22 is the Media Release including all the charts (trying to extend to top 20, and also do 2018 charts by plat, not sure I can yet).
Jan 23 will be my 2018 predictions report card
Jan 25 I'll have my more detailed 2019 predictions
All week I'll be highlighting 2018 best-sellers across genres and categories and doing more best-sellers lists on twitter.
 
Jan 28, 2018
2,033
Jan 22 is the Media Release including all the charts (trying to extend to top 20, and also do 2018 charts by plat, not sure I can yet).
Jan 23 will be my 2018 predictions report card
Jan 25 I'll have my more detailed 2019 predictions
All week I'll be highlighting 2018 best-sellers across genres and categories and doing more best-sellers lists on twitter.
Thank you so much for all the details.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,003
Carlsbad, CA
Mat, any chance we could get a VR/PSVR chart for 2018 and your predictions for 2019? I know you enjoyed that AstroBot thingee, so I'm curious as to how well you think these things will sell going forward.
I'll do a "PSVR Required" Software chart. Still digging into the data to see if there's a story to tell on PSVR HW sales. I'm still very bearish on immersive gaming VR. It might find a sustainable niche, but I don't think we're there yet, and I'm not too confident I see a high likelihood path to get there. Shrug.
 

Jahranimo

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,093
I'll do a "PSVR Required" Software chart. Still digging into the data to see if there's a story to tell on PSVR HW sales. I'm still very bearish on immersive gaming VR. It might find a sustainable niche, but I don't think we're there yet, and I'm not too confident I see a high likelihood path to get there. Shrug.
I feel like nextgen could have it be bigger, at least for PSVR.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,385
I'll do a "PSVR Required" Software chart. Still digging into the data to see if there's a story to tell on PSVR HW sales. I'm still very bearish on immersive gaming VR. It might find a sustainable niche, but I don't think we're there yet, and I'm not too confident I see a high likelihood path to get there. Shrug.
I feel next gen will be PSVR2 chance to grab the mainstream, Sony just need to make it wireless and still be priced at $300. They already killing it with the games imo.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,521
Just think, physical results release tomorrow

Right now Mat is relaxing in the glow of numbers knowing how everything shakes out while we wait
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,521
Plot Twist

NOA canceled PR because they realized I got everyone hyped up for 2 million Switch being a possibility and they missed that so now numbers will look underwhelming
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,832
Plot Twist

NOA canceled PR because they realized I got everyone hyped up for 2 million Switch being a possibility and they missed that so now numbers will look underwhelming
Or maybe they're just so used to massively undershooting their numbers that they decided to wait for official NPD numbers rather than use their own.
 
May 2, 2018
129
Plot Twist

NOA canceled PR because they realized I got everyone hyped up for 2 million Switch being a possibility and they missed that so now numbers will look underwhelming
Oh no it was only one million nine hundred ninety-nine thousand, nine hundred ninety-nine. Nintendo is doomed
 
Dec 4, 2017
13
Plot Twist

NOA canceled PR because they realized I got everyone hyped up for 2 million Switch being a possibility and they missed that so now numbers will look underwhelming
In true Nintendo style I expect the PR to say they sold more than 1 million units when they actually sold 2.3 million.
 
Oct 26, 2017
5,272
Nashville
I’m just gonna give dumb software predictions for tomorrow cause why not.

Smash Bros Ultimate: 4.2 Million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 1.35 Million
Super Mario Party: 1.30 Million
Pokémon Let’s Go: 1.4 Million
Breath of the Wild: 650k
Mario Odyssey: 800k
Splatoon 2: 300k

My predictions they probably won’t be right.