December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,033
#54
Is there a reason why so many people are predicting the Xbox One to outsell the PS4 by 300k - 500k?
PS4 had 0 deals at 0 retailers in December

The Xbox One was $100 off on the S and the X in December. November was already very close and that was with the $199 Spidey PS4
 
Oct 25, 2017
554
Hoth, WI
#55
[NSW] 2100K
[XB1] 1100K
[PS4] 900K

For the first time ever (I think), I am putting the XB1 above PS4. I think that's one of the horsemen of the apocalypse—we just need Death, Famine and me buying an XB2 before the end of days.
 
OP
OP
D
Oct 27, 2017
281
#57
Oh yeah, shouldn't the fact that Cyber Monday isn't tracked for december be there too ?
Thought about that, but MatP said that Cyber Monday really wasn't big for console sales, anyways. Therefore, wasn't sure it was worth mentioning. MatP also said that the Saturday before Christmas might've been the largest single sales day in U.S. history, but wasn't sure if he was speaking based on numbers or more how things had shaped up to that point.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,401
#58
Is there a reason why so many people are predicting the Xbox One to outsell the PS4 by 300k - 500k?
I normally start out following the crowd, lol.

Then adjust here n there.

Seeing the predictions the first thing I thought of was did XBO have any deals in Dec. Seems like it did reading Welfare's post. Sony not doing any deals I expect it to come in last. Just like last Dec.
 
Jun 9, 2018
260
#60
Wait, the weekly average of switch november 2018(340k/week) is bigger than 2017 december(300k/week)? This will be a MASSIVE december 2018.
2017 had a 55% increase from nov to dec for switch in weekly average, the same increase for 2018 nov to dec puts switch at 527k/week for dec.

[NSW] 2635k
[XB1] 1200K
[PS4] 900K
 
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Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,033
#66
That's interesting, why is that that Software is harder to predict than hardware ? Just curious
Hmm? I'm not saying software is hard to predict

I'm saying there will be some major SMASHing headlines for software as well
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,128
Netherlands
#82
I'm in! First time I think, and after my inevitable last place probably last time.

I think Switch will have shot past Wii 2008 and even 2010, and get within spitting distance of PS1 record 1998. Xbox will remain almost flat due to the good deals the extra interest of X and the extra week, PS4 has its usual decline and will therefore make the picture look bleaker than it is.

[NSW] 2400K
[XB1] 1280K
[PS4] 790K
 
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Oct 29, 2017
165
#85
Halo 3 did ~3.3M in 2007 in 11 tracked days per NPD, for its first month total.

Smash Ultimate was sitting at >3.0M (physical + digital) through 11 tracked days per Nintendo, and then had another 18 days within the tracking period to go, including pre-Christmas week and weekend, Christmas week, pre-NY weekend and NY week.

NPD only reports physical for Nintendo software. My guess is with those 18 extra days it came close to doubling that figure through Jan 4, as Switch hardware would have really hit a frenzy in those days prior to Christmas and Smash was probably a popular 1st or 2nd software choice, then of course continued to be a popular software choice post-Christmas with gift-cards/gift-money. High 5-6M total (retail + digital) for the full Dec NPD tracking period, with physical representing probably ~75-80% for a substantial new NPD record for 1st month single-platform title (in the vicinity of 5M, mid-$30M in revenue terms with an ASP of >$60.00).
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,706
#90
Halo 3 did ~3.3M in 2007 in 11 tracked days per NPD, for its first month total.

Smash Ultimate was sitting at >3.0M (physical + digital) through 11 tracked days per Nintendo, and then had another 18 days within the tracking period to go, including pre-Christmas week and weekend, Christmas week, pre-NY weekend and NY week.

NPD only reports physical for Nintendo software. My guess is with those 18 extra days it came close to doubling that figure through Jan 4, as Switch hardware would have really hit a frenzy in those days prior to Christmas and Smash was probably a popular 1st or 2nd software choice, then of course continued to be a popular software choice post-Christmas with gift-cards/gift-money. High 5-6M total (retail + digital) for the full Dec NPD tracking period, with physical representing probably ~75-80% for a substantial new NPD record for 1st month single-platform title (in the vicinity of 5M, mid-$30M in revenue terms with an ASP of >$60.00).
I’m not sure why you quoted me. I was merely linking what I thought was the clearest hint Benji made to possible a big December headline. Doesn’t mean there won’t be others.
 
Oct 29, 2017
165
#92
I’m not sure why you quoted me. I was merely linking what I thought was the clearest hint Benji made to possible a big December headline. Doesn’t mean there won’t be others.
A post of mine happened to be at the top of your link discussing Smash U sales.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,033
#94
So I'll throw out one disclaimer like always

My predictions are never gospel until the NPD release. Dont let my musings make your predictions up for you, as there is always a chance the market plays out differently than what I have access to.

I think I may have been a bit too forward this month as it looks less fun now as so many predictions are so similar lol