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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

Jan 10, 2018
499
France
So I'll throw out one disclaimer like always

My predictions are never gospel until the NPD release. Dont let my musings make your predictions up for you, as there is always a chance the market plays out differently than what I have access to.

I think I may have been a bit too forward this month as it looks less fun now as so many predictions are so similar lol
True, but I thinks that's on us, we've been quite insistent last month, and you were just kind enough to answer our questions.
Though the range for switch is still pretty big, from ~1,7M to ~3M. Same for PS4 (between 600k and 1,2M) and Xbox (900k to 1,5M). But it's true that the ranking stays mostly the same, outside of some outliers
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,231
Hmm? I'm not saying software is hard to predict

I'm saying there will be some major SMASHing headlines for software as well
I feel like something is being hinted here, so I’m going to go ahead and assume Katamari Reroll smashed all expectations.
 

Benji

US Sales Specialist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,069
That's because your data is wrong and Switch did 3.5m, obviously.
I'm not saying 2.5+ is impossible but anything that high just is hard for me to believe. That's why I'm sticking with a "conservative" (lol) 2+
 
Jan 21, 2018
2,333
PS4 will have a weak December, but they have sold so much in the other 11 months of the year so it shouldnt be a problem for them. They didn´t offer a single deal for PS4 hardware in December though.

Maybe they are expecting a big January with Kingdom Hearts III? They even have a LE PS4 Pro for the game. They lso have marketing rights for RE2 I believe
 
Oct 27, 2017
999
I'm not saying 2.5+ is impossible but anything that high just is hard for me to believe. That's why I'm sticking with a "conservative" (lol) 2+
So you're telling me 3+?
I mean we need that "switch sold 4x more than PS4" headline for the nuclear fallout you promised.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,095
I'm curious how high MK8D will land on the general software charts. It seems to be the game people buy after Smash. With ~700k+ more systems sold this month it should land higher than last month even though last month had the discounted bundles.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,564
Unova
What are your predictions?

The suspense is killing me. (Not really but you get what I mean.)

I still don’t get how the PS4 could sell so low. Maybe Sony reach their Peak sales in NA for the PS4.

I’ve never been much in month to month NPD Numbers unless it’s a niche game or a game that I’m hoping sales but I’ve seen enough YouTube videos talking about this month to get me interested.
 
Nov 1, 2017
248
Mein Land!
[NSW] 2,352,100
[XB1] 1,255,000
[PS4] 980,000

First time for me too. Will be fun to see how off my numbers are.
Deep down in my heart I hope that the Switch did even bigger numbers even though I know it is unlikely to happen.
 

Fdkn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
462
Spain
[NSW] 1987K
[PS4] 789K
[XB1] 1098K

At this point either I'm right and win the month or I had already lost any chance for the year so there is no point in going with the masses.
 
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Benji

US Sales Specialist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,069
but I’ve seen enough YouTube videos talking about this month to get me interested.
Wait..


You mean there is more than that 1 that mentioned my predictions?

Yeah I'm gonna have to call in that favor to the bunker when the bombs start dropping
 
Nov 27, 2018
970
Wait..


You mean there is more than that 1 that mentioned my predictions?

Yeah I'm gonna have to call in that favor to the bunker when the bombs start dropping
What are your thought's on PS4 performance for December compared to previous year's, Benji?
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,564
Unova
Wait..


You mean there is more than that 1 that mentioned my predictions?

Yeah I'm gonna have to call in that favor to the bunker when the bombs start dropping

You haven’t reach King Zell levels yet but yes besides one of the regular YouTuber I saw your name mention in a couple random ones I’ve never bothered watching before. But yeah not anywhere near King Zell’s level Where every PokéTuber are pinning their hopes and dreams off of one of his lines.
 

Dr. Mario

Banned
Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,214
Netherlands
PS4 will have a weak December, but they have sold so much in the other 11 months of the year so it shouldnt be a problem for them. They didn´t offer a single deal for PS4 hardware in December though.

Maybe they are expecting a big January with Kingdom Hearts III? They even have a LE PS4 Pro for the game. They lso have marketing rights for RE2 I believe
Whackjob conspiracy time, but I sometimes feel Sony is aware of little sales console war threads like these, and is actively gaming them. Like creating too good to be true Brack Furaidai Bundarus, and a few one week deals in other slow months but knowing December is a lost cause with Nintendo, so not putting in any deals there. Otherwise I have no clue why they eat into their revenue so much in October/November.
 

Benji

US Sales Specialist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,069
With it comes a great responsability
Eh I've been doing this for a LONG time. Like a decade now. I guess this month in particular has gained a lot of traction. In my years of doing this I've gotten used to the drama it comes with.

Like when Switch sell 1.9m units and PS4 1.01m in December NPD my notifications / Twitter Feed will be a mess
 
Jan 21, 2018
2,333
Whackjob conspiracy time, but I sometimes feel Sony is aware of little sales console war threads like these, and is actively gaming them. Like creating too good to be true Brack Furaidai Bundarus, and a few one week deals in other slow months but knowing December is a lost cause with Nintendo, so not putting in any deals there. Otherwise I have no clue why they eat into their revenue so much in October/November.
Nah I doubt these threads have any effect on their business lol. Even crazy moves like no hardware deals in December are all part of their plan to maximize revenue.

I Would think it was just that, but we are about to hit a couple of very big launches that should move PS4 hardware (especially KHIII with the LE Pro) so I kind of have a feeling that Sony has high hopes for January numbers
 

Emilijo

Banned
Member
Oct 27, 2017
494
Looks like Xbox One can beat PS4 only in December - in 2017. and 2018.

And Switch will become best selling console in US in 2018., after 4 years of PS4 dominance.