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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

Dec 22, 2018
1,047
THIS folks is why the gap never grows between it and xbox! They win all year only to lose most of the lead in the holidays. WHAT the fuck are you doing sony? They could be so far ahead had they competed since day one of this gen in NA>
Sony don't have the same financial power as MS.

Even a MS that has mostly been indifferent towards gaming can still provide the resources to offer these kind of deals without fear of consequences.

Sony have to balance the books.
 
Jun 21, 2018
1,105
THIS folks is why the gap never grows between it and xbox! They win all year only to lose most of the lead in the holidays. WHAT the fuck are you doing sony? They could be so far ahead had they competed since day one of this gen in NA>
I think money is more important to Sony here than gamers bragging over PS4's sales numbers. Why sell and barely scrape by when you can sell still a lot and make money to boot.
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,404
I think money is more important to Sony here than gamers bragging over PS4's sales numbers. Why sell and barely scrape by when you can sell still a lot and make money to boot.
Xbox being so close should have never happened. Next gen Sony will regret not taking the chance to pull ahead hard.
 
Oct 28, 2017
5,404
I think money is more important to Sony here than gamers bragging over PS4's sales numbers. Why sell and barely scrape by when you can sell still a lot and make money to boot.
Its not about bragging, its about preparing for next gen when XBOX will HIT HARD.

They should be going after everyone and then next gen by having BC you lock in the majority. By letting MS take the lead in the holidays they are losing future NA customers. Having control of NA marketshare is very important.
 
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Oct 29, 2017
1,602
WA, australia
If I were a betting man and had confidence in my napkin math analysis, Sony's PR probably suggests less than 900K this December.

If US sales for the holiday were ~37% (which is where I'd estimate them to be for 2016 and 2017), that's 2.1M to spread between what was sold in the last 2 weeks of November and 4 weeks of December. Add like ~50K for that final December week.

I'd personally estimate US to be ~35% until we know what it sold in NPD. That would be ~2M (rounded up) and that would point to something in the 700-800K range.

That's probably a safe range for sales because if sales are in the 600K and below range OH BOY
Sounds like benji’s projections/predictions are yet again very accurate. Would 700-800k be its lowest December yet?

P.s. Thankyou for these kinda posts. You alone are one of the key reasons these threads are interesting :)
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,370
PS4's lowest December was 2013 at 863K. Obviously that was both launch holiday and supply constrained. PS4 has yet to fall below 1M post launch.
 
Jun 21, 2018
1,105
Its not about bragging, its about preparing for next gen when XBOX will HIT HARD.

They should be going after everyone and then next gen by having BC you lock in the majority. By letting MS take the lead in the holidays they are losing future customers.
At 91.6 million PS4s sold, they really aren't losing a lot of customers here.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,578
If I were a betting man and had confidence in my napkin math analysis, Sony's PR probably suggests less than 900K this December.

If US sales for the holiday were ~37% (which is where I'd estimate them to be for 2016 and 2017), that's 2.1M to spread between what was sold in the last 2 weeks of November and 4 weeks of December. Add like ~50K for that final December week.

I'd personally estimate US to be ~35% until we know what it sold in NPD. That would be ~2M (rounded up) and that would point to something in the 700-800K range.

That's probably a safe range for sales because if sales are in the 600K and below range OH BOY
Thanks Welfare. That's just about where I was thinking

750kish seems the best bet to me right now but maybe it did a bit over that. Certainly under 1 million.

And I'm guessing the US / Europe split is weaker this year than recent years as Sony had zero deals in the US in December while they ran much more aggressive ones than last year outside the US
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,009
Great results from Sony, but like others have said next year will be a downward trend due to next gen on the horizon.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,578
I’ve been saying Sony needs permanent price cut for years now.
Sony is still selling a ton of units at full price though. They are just prioritizing revenue / profit over units.

I think tbh they have had no need to cut price super aggressively. This is their lowest holiday since 2014 but not by a huge margin and while US is looking like it might be weak Europe probably mostly made up the difference (since we know UK was up YoY for example)

Now in 2019 I agree. They need a permanent cut or I think you are going to start seeing huge decline YoY. Same for Xbox. Both need permanent cuts this year
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,370
I said it a bit ago but I predict a PS4 super slim coming out this Q3 for $249. This model will probably allow them to do more $199 deals.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Member
Nov 23, 2017
6,885
I said it a bit ago but I predict a PS4 super slim coming out this Q3 for $249. This model will probably allow them to do more $199 deals.
They no longer need a race to the bottom scenario.
They are soo ahead and the gen is so close to end they can focus on profit.
The direct competitor is about 40-50% units behind and the “equal” is not even a direct competitor going by the data.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,370
They no longer need a race to the bottom scenario.
They are soo ahead and the gen is so close to end they can focus on profit.
The direct competitor is about 40-50% units behind and the “equal” is not even a direct competitor going by the data.
Not a race to the bottom but it would actually allow the PS4 to get down to $199 eventually, unlike the PS3.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,578
They no longer need a race to the bottom scenario.
They are soo ahead and the gen is so close to end they can focus on profit.
The direct competitor is about 40-50% units behind and the “equal” is not even a direct competitor going by the data.
They really do need a permanent cut this year. Probably not to $199 but $250 for sure

You are starting to see the system slow in the US. Both November and December are going to be down YoY. That is only going to increase throughout 2019.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Member
Nov 23, 2017
6,885
Not a race to the bottom but it would actually allow the PS4 to get down to $199 eventually, unlike the PS3.
But why would you want to go there if you dont need to. At current pace they will surpas PS3 and maybe even wii. So no need to kill your profits margins unless they beliece they can pull a miracle and close in to DS/ PS2 sales (which is more a curse than a miracle)
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,578
But why would you want to go there if you dont need to. At current pace they will surpas PS3 and maybe even wii. So no need to kill your profits margins unless they beliece they can pull a miracle and close in to DS/ PS2 sales (which is more a curse than a miracle)
I think you are underestimating how far down 2019 is going to be

Especially due to nothing on the horizon for 2019 with the console moving potential Fortnite had in the first half of the year in 2018
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,370
But why would you want to go there if you dont need to. At current pace they will surpas PS3 and maybe even wii. So no need to kill your profits margins unless they beliece they can pull a miracle and close in to DS/ PS2 sales (which is more a curse than a miracle)
It depends on how Sony plan for next gen. If they kill the PS4 like they did the PS3 then yeah, no need for $199.

If they plan on selling PS4 alongside PS5 for a bit, then being able to get down to $199 without a big hit to profits would be beneficial.

And 2019 will not be pretty, even at $249 anyway, so the cheaper it can get, the better. 2020 will be even worse.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Member
Nov 23, 2017
6,885
They really do need a permanent cut this year. Probably not to $199 but $250 for sure

You are starting to see the system slow in the US. Both November and December are going to be down YoY. That is only going to increase throughout 2019.
As I see it it depends for how long they want to keep this gen rolling before jumping to the next, if PS5/X2 do release this year, then i see no reason to try to inflate the sales.
Now if next gen gets pushed to 2020 then maybe. But even so, not really see the problem on lower sales overall but keeping a high revenues per unit. Sheer numbers wise to taunt about they already are GG for whatever is left of the gen
 

Judge

Vault-Tec Seal of Approval
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
1,664
People need to understand how “relatives” work, just cause someone did better than you doesnt mean that you are doing bad (except Xbox in Japan)
Ya this whole win/lose mentality is tiring. Xbox “lost” to PS4 and Swifch in Nov but still moved 1.3mil units. PS4 can “lose” this month and still shift 1mil units at good profit margins. People need to stop focusing on winning and losing based on the place in the 3 console ranking that month lol
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,547
So does Sony's 5.6 million worldwide change any predictions? Obviously will need to do a lot of maths to try and figure it all out.

I think that's from the 19th of Nov to the 31st of December.
I dont know....but if that post winds up being close to the results, I can see the Sony Doomed posts already.

And.....looks like its time for me to start adjusting my numbers.
 

Benji

US Sales Insider
Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,578
But I really thought this was the year of everybody winning. :(
It really is

2019 is the year we enter "doomed" land for PS4 and Xbox One. We'll probably be starting to see consoles are dying and streaming is the future articles in a few months
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,730
Sony don't have the same financial power as MS.

Even a MS that has mostly been indifferent towards gaming can still provide the resources to offer these kind of deals without fear of consequences.

Sony have to balance the books.
This is a company that lost 5 billion with PS3 but right now there is no need for them to do that .
If MS was selling at Sony pace they would be doing less deal also .
MS so rich that they could sell XB at $99 and be okay but they don't since every company has to balance the books as you say .
 
Dec 22, 2018
1,047
This is a company that lost 5 billion with PS3 but right now there is no need for them to do that .
If MS was selling at Sony pace they would be doing less deal also .
MS so rich that they could sell XB at $99 and be okay but they don't since every company has to balance the books as you say .
To MS, hardware is just a means to an end. To get people into thier ecosystem.

So even if MS were selling at Sonys pace, they'd still be doing these deals because the money generated from hardware means little to them
 
Jun 3, 2018
42
First time here. Who does the counting for it?

[NSW] 1950K
[PS4] 1000K
[XB1] 950K

Real question though: Will Switch surpass the Xbox One by units sold this year? Gotta bet on that.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
3,730
To MS, hardware is just a means to an end. To get people into thier ecosystem.

So even if MS were selling at Sonys pace, they'd still be doing these deals because the money generated from hardware means little to them
As i said if that was the case they could sell there system for $99 dollars they can afford it .
They lost billions when they enter the market .
The fact is both of these company has to balance the books right now Sony has more options since the selling more.
Do you really think they be doing these deals all this gen if there were selling at Sony pace ?
 
Dec 22, 2018
1,047
As i said if that was the case they could sell there system for $99 dollars they can afford it .
They lost billions when they enter the market .
The fact is both of these company has to balance the books right now Sony has more options since the selling more.
Do you really think they be doing these deals all this gen if there were selling at Sony pace ?
Yes I do as I stated before.

Selling at $99 is ridiculous, nothing to be gained.

Doing lots of great bundles and discounts with free games is a great move and one that is designed to get more people into services like XGP.

MS can do this and would regardless of the amount of hardware they were shifting.

You're too hardware focussed,
 
Oct 28, 2017
6,107
Tbilisi, Georgia
Its not about bragging, its about preparing for next gen when XBOX will HIT HARD.

They should be going after everyone and then next gen by having BC you lock in the majority. By letting MS take the lead in the holidays they are losing future NA customers. Having control of NA marketshare is very important.
If that's the case, then Sony will have a locked in audience of up to over 100 million, while Microsoft's maybe won't be even half of that.