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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

Oct 25, 2017
3,871
Yes I do as I stated before.

Selling at $99 is ridiculous, nothing to be gained.

Doing lots of great bundles and discounts with free games is a great move and one that is designed to get more people into services like XGP.

MS can do this and would regardless of the amount of hardware they were shifting.

You're too hardware focussed,
I am not hardware focus .
Of course there something to be gain selling at $99 more sales and getting people into services ( once they have the stock)
Getting people into there services is why they doing deals in the first place.
Just like how Sony selling at $199 would have given them more sales last year dec( if they had the stock )
Also i think you are naive if you think MS would done so many deals over the years if they were selling like Sony .
No company give up extra revenue \ profit if they don't have to .
 
Last edited:
Dec 22, 2018
1,389
I am not hardware focus .
Of course there something to be gain selling at $99 more sales and getting people into services ( once they have the stock)
Getting people into there services is why they doing deals in the first place.
Just like how Sony selling at $199 would have given them more sales last year dec( if they had the stock )
Also i think you are naive if you think MS would done so many deals over the years if they were selling like Sony .
No company give up extra revenue \ profit if they don't have to .
MS don't mind giving up an extra bit of profit from hardware if it means they will generate substantial more from the one user via XGP and in game monetisation.

Edit.
I think we will leave it. I don't think you understand revenue stream and such
 
Jan 21, 2018
2,334
It really is

2019 is the year we enter "doomed" land for PS4 and Xbox One. We'll probably be starting to see consoles are dying and streaming is the future articles in a few months
Nah, streaming has yet to have the massive rise that mobile gaming saw so we aren´t going to see the PS4/XOne mimic the PS3/360 end years in that sense (this gen is so different than last as it is). The Switch is entering its peak so that should also quell console death talk.

I also don´t think the decline in 2019 will be anything like the decline of the last gen consoles. At least for PS4, there are a lot of moves Sony has yet to make regarding price and a lot of high profile first party games they have yet to launch.But this all depends on what they have ready for the second half of the year.

Either way, next gen is coming up so I somewhat think part of Sony wants the PS4 to simmer down so there is healthy demand for the PS5.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,871
MS don't mind giving up an extra bit of profit from hardware if it means they will generate substantial more from the one user via XGP and in game monetisation.

Edit.
I think we will leave it. I don't think you understand revenue stream and such
I understand all of that .
What i don't understand is you saying MS has so much financial power that they can do deals this dec but Sony could not .( they did in other parts of the world)
Sony have been doing deals this whole gen but they did not in the USA year last Dec and your reason was because they not as rich as MS .
When the simple reason is they hit there target so they was no reason to do deals in the USA market .
 
Dec 6, 2018
3
Wait..


You mean there is more than that 1 that mentioned my predictions?

Yeah I'm gonna have to call in that favor to the bunker when the bombs start dropping
I'm from Spain and I saw more than one important web (such as Vandal.net) posting a piece of news about your prediction as an npd leak. The source they put is another web that mentions you. So yeah, you're becoming important as a source of leaks hahaha
 
Dec 22, 2018
1,389
I understand all of that .
What i don't understand is you saying MS has so much financial power that they can do deals this dec but Sony could not .( they did in other parts of the world)
Sony have been doing deals this whole gen but they did not in the USA year last Dec and your reason was because they not as rich as MS .
When the simple reason is they hit there target so they was no reason to do deals in the USA market .
PlayStation is Sonys main driver of revenue and profit across the board, and we are at the stage now where a first party console holder makes the most in terms of the said revenue and profit.

Sony can't and won't match the kind of deals MS can do, as PS is thier main revenue driver.

Pretty sure Sony never went as crazy as Xbox this generation. 2014 especially MS went nuts
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,759
Malaysia
The simple thing about Sony not doing a major deal for PS4 this Dec is simple.

Sony had a modest fiscal year target.
They budgeted their ATL budget, trade marketing and discounting spend based off that projected sales target.

In spite of that, they overperformed past their initial expectation.
To the point that they've made the choice of (apparently) scaling back the initial spend plan that they had.

Sony's aim is to meet their 17.5 mil PS4 forecast for this fiscal. And that's their focus.
Whether that focus, to the extent that they would be willing to have a weak sale month in Dec so long as that target is met is the right move or not? We won't know.
 
Mar 13, 2018
558
I have a question. See how the PS4 is still doing phenomenal, would Sony literally have to cut back on the amount of PS4'S they make and sell to give the PS5 a fighting chance our the gate?

Like I assume if the PS4 were still doing phenomenonally, that would affect the PS5's sales?
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,457
I really wish Nintendo (I’d say Microsoft too but that’s wishful thinking) would release holidays PR too.
While I feel the same, aren't they supposed to have the quarterly financials around the end of this month? If so, just a little longer and we will have much, much more than just a holidays PR.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,262
The Netherlands
So Fortnite was a fad?
No, not at all. It's still the biggest game of the moment. Every game peaks at some point, and Fortnite did in (first half of) 2018. It's still an absolutely massive game, but the rage where it pushed its popularity and got people to buy systems for it is presumably behind us. That doesn't make it a fad at all. It'd be a fad if it now crippled and rotted in a corner, but it's not: it's no. 1 on Twitch as we (I) speak, for example.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,486
Athens, Greece
I have a question. See how the PS4 is still doing phenomenal, would Sony literally have to cut back on the amount of PS4'S they make and sell to give the PS5 a fighting chance our the gate?

Like I assume if the PS4 were still doing phenomenonally, that would affect the PS5's sales?
If the PS4 keeps selling phenomenally, they probably have no reason to rush PS5 on the market. The more they delay it, the bigger the leap.
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,313
PlayStation is Sonys main driver of revenue and profit across the board, and we are at the stage now where a first party console holder makes the most in terms of the said revenue and profit.

Sony can't and won't match the kind of deals MS can do, as PS is thier main revenue driver.

Pretty sure Sony never went as crazy as Xbox this generation. 2014 especially MS went nuts
The reason Sony was less aggressive (with deals) than MS this generation was that they could do so and still have the upper hand.
Sony with PS4 is simply in a position for which it doesn't need to match MS deals.
Like another post already said when Sony got a bad hand (with PS3), they just shut up and eat billions of losses to save PlayStation brand image.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,120
Western Canada
PlayStation is Sonys main driver of revenue and profit across the board, and we are at the stage now where a first party console holder makes the most in terms of the said revenue and profit.

Sony can't and won't match the kind of deals MS can do, as PS is thier main revenue driver.

Pretty sure Sony never went as crazy as Xbox this generation. 2014 especially MS went nuts
I mean... barely? Gaming is Sony's biggest business sector, but it's still only like 20% of their overall business in terms of revenue. The difference is size between Microsoft as a corporation and Sony isn't so big that one can afford to discount hardware and the other can't. They're both massive multi-national conglomerates making $80b+ per year. As the market leader, Sony just has less incentive and less interest in taking any loss on hardware.
 

allan-bh

Banned
Member
Oct 25, 2017
425
I mean... barely? Gaming is Sony's biggest business sector, but it's still only like 20% of their overall business in terms of revenue. The difference is size between Microsoft as a corporation and Sony isn't so big that one can afford to discount hardware and the other can't. They're both massive multi-national conglomerates making $80b+ per year. As the market leader, Sony just has less incentive and less interest in taking any loss on hardware.
The huge difference is net income. MS is much more profitable than Sony, so you can't even start to compare the two companies.

But I agree that Sony doesn't need to be agressive this gen, their product has naturally more appeal. When the company nedeed to be agressive with the PS3, it was.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,486
Athens, Greece
That'd piss off a lot of launch devs.
Would it, they will have bigger sales on the current consoles. Also publishers will be informed well before hand on Sony's plans. On the other hand, there could be market for both, a PS5 at 499 won't directly compete with PS4 at 200-300. Obviously many people will still opt for the cheaper PS4 but many will start investing on PS5 and those are usually the bigger spenders that buy more software.
 
Nov 5, 2017
4,703
I really wish Nintendo (I’d say Microsoft too but that’s wishful thinking) would release holidays PR too.
There kinda was a "PR message" from Microsoft I think. Didn't one of their seniors post on Twitter that X1 won the month* (because Switch didn't count for whatever reason)?
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,819
Would it, they will have bigger sales on the current consoles. Also publishers will be informed well before hand on Sony's plans. On the other hand, there could be market for both, a PS5 at 499 won't directly compete with PS4 at 200-300. Obviously many people will still opt for the cheaper PS4 but many will start investing on PS5 and those are usually the bigger spenders that buy more software.
Moving a platform launch in any sense (early release or late delay) messes with a TON of development schedules, a lot of marketing processes, and can effect a company's ability to maintain income if they expected a game to launch on a specific time. Unless all these new games are crossgen releases, they're not gonna have sufficient time to downport to profit off the suddenly longer PS4 lifespan.

Obviously this example is a different scenario, but Sega Saturn moved up its release in America by months, and because of that retailers and developers were left hanging because they were given a schedule for near the end of the year. It's not so simple.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,294
How the official thread will go

[NSW] Nintendomination / Smash is immortal
[PS4] DOOOOMMEEEDDD / Arrogant Sony returns
[XB1] COMEBACK IS REAL / Hot takes from the future
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,752
Its not about bragging, its about preparing for next gen when XBOX will HIT HARD.

They should be going after everyone and then next gen by having BC you lock in the majority. By letting MS take the lead in the holidays they are losing future NA customers. Having control of NA marketshare is very important.
They could be preparing in a more forward thinking way.

This gen is basically done and over with. So, what if the lack of cuts now gives them more room for a potential cut early next gen if needed? They may be more willing to cut the price if they have more revenue/profit in the bank.

And keep in mind, MS washed Sony holiday 2014 and it didn’t change anything in the grand scheme of things. I think it is easy to use one holiday and run with it but I think there are other factors involved that don’t make it that simple. Different goals, different plans, different methods, different situations, etc....
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,007
It looks like Benji's data was on point again regarding the PS4. Now we just need the Switch to do over 2m and people who called him a fanboy can eat crows.

They won't.
 
Oct 28, 2017
6,301
Tbilisi, Georgia
I think the combination of price cuts and the final wave of high quality PS4 exclusives (Last of Us is gonna do gangbusters) will soften the expected drop of PS4 next year

No idea about Xbox.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Member
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
im sure they just wait the month till the quarterly IR.


I have a question. See how the PS4 is still doing phenomenal, would Sony literally have to cut back on the amount of PS4'S they make and sell to give the PS5 a fighting chance our the gate?

Like I assume if the PS4 were still doing phenomenonally, that would affect the PS5's sales?
ultimately what drives hardware sales is software (either tangible or long term promises). so for PS4 to cannibalize PS5 it has to be a plethora of factors from, non exclusive on release + a better line up on PS4 on the near future of PS5 release.
there could also be some additional factors for PS4 to eat from PS5 like price.

but given Sony's story, they better be taking all measures to be avoid this, no one wants to repeat PS2 vs PS3 all over again
 
Nov 21, 2018
918
I mean... barely? Gaming is Sony's biggest business sector, but it's still only like 20% of their overall business in terms of revenue. The difference is size between Microsoft as a corporation and Sony isn't so big that one can afford to discount hardware and the other can't. They're both massive multi-national conglomerates making $80b+ per year. As the market leader, Sony just has less incentive and less interest in taking any loss on hardware.
The big difference between Sony and Microsoft in one picture:
 
Dec 22, 2018
1,389
The huge difference is net income. MS is much more profitable than Sony, so you can't even start to compare the two companies.

But I agree that Sony doesn't need to be agressive this gen, their product has naturally more appeal. When the company nedeed to be agressive with the PS3, it was.
I'm arguing that if MS was in the position of Sony, they would still be aggressive, as to them it's about the ecosystem.

They would still do the deals they have done because profit from hardware is minimal
 

Expy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,594
I have a question. See how the PS4 is still doing phenomenal, would Sony literally have to cut back on the amount of PS4'S they make and sell to give the PS5 a fighting chance our the gate?

Like I assume if the PS4 were still doing phenomenonally, that would affect the PS5's sales?
The effect PS4 will have on PS5 is totally dependent on the software that launches along side PS5 and the price point. Right now PS4 is relatively still priced in the mid-range ($250-350), so the launch price of PS5 will influence things more than PS4 performance.

Say PS5 launches at $499, with a 'meh' launch lineup, then people would probably pick up PS4s instead, or even PS4 Pros.

If PS5 launches at $399-445 with a decent-to-good lineup, then people would likely still pick up a PS5 regardless of PS4 price/promotions.

If anything, the overperforming PS4 gives Sony a little bit a headroom as far as strategy goes, as we trickle into next-gen territory.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,740
Every sales leader ala the PS2, DS, and more have natural decelerations going into their later years and Sony doesn't see a need to force their hand when they clearly have done very well this generation and have reached a high saturation mark in many markets. Their focus moving forward is going to be to maximize the potential of the remaining software releases and to ensure a smooth transition into the PS5 where they have invested a lot into R&D and will most likely be taking upfront loses with on hardware (as most console producers do out of the gate). They don't see a need to be taking unnecessary losses on discounted hardware now and I would agree with that approach.

Microsoft wants to be aggressive right now as they had some struggles this gen but have finally found a point of attack with new development studios and the introduction of Game Pass. They want people hooked on Game Pass and Xbox Live as their main revenue sources and that means to get as many people as possible onto those services via promotions.
 
I can tell you people from Sony, MS, Nintendo, GameStop, and other major retailers read the NPD threads every month. That is 100% true

But nah these threads have no bearing on their actual business plans other than they like to read some of the more educated peoples posts
as one of those more educated people i must say that it's a great honor to be part of a thread that plays an important part for game industry execs in their procrastination strategies and helps them to prolong their potty breaks.
 
Mar 14, 2018
351
Hmm, I think this could also be funny to do for company's quaterly report about how many units they sold in the last quater worldwide :D .
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,623
WA, australia
Hmm, I think this could also be funny to do for company's quaterly report about how many units they sold in the last quater worldwide :D .
That would certainly be more challenging and have more room for me to be outlandishly wrong with my predictions!

The more prediction things we have the better imo. They’re really fun :)